Chapter 4 - Fundamentals of spatial processes Lecture notes€¦ · Testing for independence If...
Transcript of Chapter 4 - Fundamentals of spatial processes Lecture notes€¦ · Testing for independence If...
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Chapter 4 - Fundamentals of spatial processesLecture notes
Geir Storvik
January 21, 2013
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Spatial processes
Typically correlation between nearby sites
Mostly positive correlation
Negative correlation when competition
Typically part of a space-time process
Temporal snapshot
Temporal aggregation
Statistical analysis
Incorporate spatial dependence into spatial statistical models
Relatively new in statistics, active research field!
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Hierarchical (statistical) models
Data model
Process model
In time series setting - state space models
Example
Yt =αYt−1 + Wt , t = 2, 3, ... Wtind∼ (0, σ2
W ) Process model
Zt =βYt + ηt , t = 1, 2, 3, ... ηtind∼ (0, σ2
W ) Data model
We will do similar type of modelling now, separating the process modeland the data model:
Z (si ) = Y (si ) + ε(si ), ε(si ) ∼ iid
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Hierarchical (statistical) models
Data model
Process model
In time series setting - state space modelsExample
Yt =αYt−1 + Wt , t = 2, 3, ... Wtind∼ (0, σ2
W ) Process model
Zt =βYt + ηt , t = 1, 2, 3, ... ηtind∼ (0, σ2
W ) Data model
We will do similar type of modelling now, separating the process modeland the data model:
Z (si ) = Y (si ) + ε(si ), ε(si ) ∼ iid
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Prediction
Typical aim:
Observed Z = (Z (s1), ...,Z (sm))
Want to predict Y (s0)
Squared error loss function: Optimal E (Y (s0)|Z)
Empirical methods: E(Y (s0)|Z) ≈ E(Y (s0)|Z, θ)Bayesian methods: E(Y (s0)|Z) =
∫θ E(Y (s0)|Z,θ)p(θ|Z)dθ
Require E (Y (s0)|Z,θ)
Z|Y are independent, but dependent marginally
Require model for {Y (s)}
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Geostatistical models
Assume {Y (s)} is a Gaussian process
(Y (s1), ...,Y (sm)) is multivariate Gaussian for all m and s1, ..., sm
Need to specify
µ(s) = E (Y (s))
CY (s, s′) = cov(Y (s),Y (s′))
Usually assume 2. order stationarity:
µ(s) = µ, ∀sCY (s, s′) = CY (|s− s′|), ∀s, s′
Possible extension:
µ(s) = x(s)Tβ
Often:
Z (si )|Y (si ), σ2ε ∼ ind.Gau(Y (si ), σ
2ε)
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Prediction
(Z (s1), ...,Z (sm),Y (s0)) is multivariate GaussianCan use rules about conditional distributions:(
X1
X2
)∼MVN
((µ1
µ2
),
(Σ11 Σ12
Σ21 Σ22
))E (X2|X1) =µ1 + Σ12Σ−122 (X2 − µ2)
var(X2|X1) =Σ11 −Σ12Σ−122 Σ21
Need
Expectations: As for ordinary linear regression
Covariances: New!
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Variogram and covariance function
Dependence can be specified through covariance functionsNot always that such exist, but prediction can still be carried outMore general concept: Variogram
2γY (h) ≡var[Y (s + h)− Y (s)]
=var[Y (s + h)] + var[Y (s)]− 2cov[Y (s + h),Y (s)]
=2CY (0)− 2CY (h)
Note:
Variogram can exist even if var[Y (s)] =∞!
Often assumed in spatial statistics, thereby the use of variogramsWhen 2γY (h) = 2γY (||h||), we get an isotrophic variogram
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Isotropic covariance functions/variograms
Matern covariance function
CY (h;θ) = σ21{2θ2−1Γ(θ2)}−1{||h||/θ1}θ2Kθ2(||h||/θ1)
Powered-exponential
CY (h;θ) = σ21 exp{−(||h||/θ1)θ2}
Exponential
CY (h;θ) = σ21 exp{−(||h||/θ1)}
Gaussian
CY (h;θ) = σ21 exp{−(||h||/θ1)2}
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Bochner’s theorem
A covariance function needs to be positive definite
Theorem (Bochner, 1955)
If∫∞−∞ · · ·
∫∞−∞ |CY (h)|dh <∞, then a valid real-valued covariance
function can be written as
CY (h) =
∫ ∞−∞· · ·∫ ∞−∞
cos(ωTh)fY (ω)dω
where fY (ω) ≥ 0 is symmetric about ω = 0.
fY (ω): Spectral density of CY (h).
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Nugget effect and Sill
We have
CZ (h) =cov[Z (s),Z (s + h)]
=cov[Y (s) + ε(s),Y (s + h) + ε(s + h)]
=cov[Y (s),Y (s + h)] + cov[ε(s), ε(s + h)]
=CY (h) + σ2εI (h = 0)
Assume
CY (0) =σ2Y
limh→0
[CY (0)− CY (h)] =0
Then
CZ (0) = σ2Y + σ2
ε Sill
limh→0
[CZ (0)− CZ (h)] = σ2ε = c0 Nugget effect
Possible to include nugget effect also in Y -process.STK4150 - Intro 11
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Nugget/sill
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Estimation of variogram/covariance function
2γZ (h) ≡var[Z (s + h)− Z (s)]
Const expectation= E [Z (s + h)− Z (s)]2
Can estimate from “all” pairs having distance h between.Problem: Few/no pairs for all hSimplifications
γZ (h) = γ0Z (||h||)Use 2γ0Z (h) = ave{(Z (si )− Z (sj))2; ||si − sj || ∈ T (h)}If covariates, use residuals
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Boreality data
Empirical variogram: Boreality data
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Testing for independence
If independence: γ0Z (h) = σ2Z
Test-statistic F = γZ (h1)/σ2Z , h1 smallest observed distance
Reject H0 for |F − 1| largePermutation test: Recalculate F for all permutations of ZIf observed F is above 97.5% percentile, reject H0
Boreality example:
P-value = 0.0001
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Kriging = Prediction
Model
Y =Xβ + δ
Z =Y + ε
Prediction of Y (s0)Linear predictors {LTZ + k}Optimal predictor minimize
MSPE(L, k) ≡E [Y (s0)− LTZ− k]2
=var[Y (s0)− LTZ− k] + {E [Y (s0)− LTZ− k]}2
Note: Do not assume any distributional assumptions
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Kriging
MSPE(L, k) =var[Y (s0)− LTZ− k] + {E [Y (s0)− LTZ− k]}2
=var[Y (s0)− LTZ− k] + {µY (s0)− LTµz − k]}2
Second term is zero if k = µY (s0)− LTµZ .First term (c(s0) = cov[Z,Y (s0)])
var[Y (s0)− LTZ− k] =CY (s0, s0)− 2LTc(s0) + LTCZL
Derivative wrt LT :
− 2c(s0) + 2CZL = 0
L∗ = C−1Z c(s0)
giving
Y ∗(s0) =µY (s0) + c(s0)TC−1Z [Z− µZ ]
MSPE(L∗, k∗) =CY (s0, s0)− c(s0)TC−1Z c(s0)
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Kriging
c(s0) =cov[Z,Y (s0)]
=cov[Y,Y (s0)]
=(CY (s0, s1), ...,CY (s0, sm))
=cY (s0)
CZ ={CZ (si , sj)}
CZ (si , sj) =
{CY (si , si ) + σ2
ε, si = sj
CY (si , sj), si 6= sj
Y ∗(s0) = µY (s0) + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− µZ )
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Gaussian assumptions
Assume now Y,Z are MVN(Z
Y(s0)
)= MVN
((µZ
µY (s0)
),
(CZ cY (s0)T
cY (s0) CY (s0, s0)
))Give
Y (s0)|Z ∼ N(µY (s0) + c(s0)TC−1Z [Z− µZ ],CY (s0, s0)− c(s0)TC−1Z c(s0))
Same as kriging!The book derive this directly without using the formula for conditionaldistribution
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Kriging (cont)
Y ∗(s0) = µY (s0) + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− µZ )
Assuming
E [Y (s)] =x(s)Tβ
Z (si )|Y (si ), σ2ε ∼ind.Gau(Y (si ), σ
2ε)
Then
µZ =µY = Xβ
CZ =ΣY + σ2εI
cY (s0) =(CY (s0, s1), ...,CY (s0, sm))T
and
Y ∗(s0) = x(s0)β + cY (s0)T [ΣY + σ2εI]−1(Z− Xβ)
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Summary previous time/plan
Simple kriging
Linear predictorAssume parameters knownEqual to conditional expectation
Unknown parameters
Ordinary krigingPlug-in estimatesBayesian approach
Non-Gaussian models
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Summary previous time/plan
Simple kriging
Linear predictorAssume parameters knownEqual to conditional expectation
Unknown parameters
Ordinary krigingPlug-in estimatesBayesian approach
Non-Gaussian models
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Unknown parameters
So far assumed parameters known, what if unknown?
Plug-in estimate/Empirical Bayes
Bayesian approach
Direct approach - Ordinary kriging
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Estimation
Likelihood
L(θ) = p(z;θ) =
∫y
p(z|y;θ)p(y;θ)dθ
Gaussian processes: Can be derived analytically
Optimization can still be problematic
Many (too many?) routines in R available
> gls(Bor~Wet,correlation=corGaus(form=~x+y,nugget=TRUE),data=Boreality)
Generalized least squares fit by REML
Model: Bor ~ Wet
Data: Boreality
Log-restricted-likelihood: -1363.146
Coefficients:
(Intercept) Wet
15.06705 77.66940
Correlation Structure: Gaussian spatial correlation
Formula: ~x + y
Parameter estimate(s):
range nugget
460.3941829 0.6112509
Degrees of freedom: 533 total; 531 residual
Residual standard error: 3.636527
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Estimation
Likelihood
L(θ) = p(z;θ) =
∫y
p(z|y;θ)p(y;θ)dθ
Gaussian processes: Can be derived analytically
Optimization can still be problematic
Many (too many?) routines in R available
> gls(Bor~Wet,correlation=corGaus(form=~x+y,nugget=TRUE),data=Boreality)
Generalized least squares fit by REML
Model: Bor ~ Wet
Data: Boreality
Log-restricted-likelihood: -1363.146
Coefficients:
(Intercept) Wet
15.06705 77.66940
Correlation Structure: Gaussian spatial correlation
Formula: ~x + y
Parameter estimate(s):
range nugget
460.3941829 0.6112509
Degrees of freedom: 533 total; 531 residual
Residual standard error: 3.636527
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Bayesian approach
Hierarchical model
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter: θ
Simultaneous model: p(y, z|θ) = p(z|y,θ)p(y|θ)Marginal model: L(θ) = p(z|θ) =
∫y p(z, y|θ)dy
Inference: θ = argmaxθL(θ)
Bayesian approach: Include model on θ
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter model: θ p(θ) [θ]
Simultaneous model: p(y, z,θ)Marginal model: p(z) =
∫θ∫
y p(z, y|θ)dydθ
Inference: θ =∫θ θp(θ|z)dθ
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Bayesian approach
Hierarchical model
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter: θ
Simultaneous model: p(y, z|θ) = p(z|y,θ)p(y|θ)Marginal model: L(θ) = p(z|θ) =
∫y p(z, y|θ)dy
Inference: θ = argmaxθL(θ)
Bayesian approach: Include model on θ
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter model: θ p(θ) [θ]
Simultaneous model: p(y, z,θ)Marginal model: p(z) =
∫θ∫
y p(z, y|θ)dydθ
Inference: θ =∫θ θp(θ|z)dθ
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Bayesian approach
Hierarchical model
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter: θ
Simultaneous model: p(y, z|θ) = p(z|y,θ)p(y|θ)Marginal model: L(θ) = p(z|θ) =
∫y p(z, y|θ)dy
Inference: θ = argmaxθL(θ)
Bayesian approach: Include model on θ
Variable Densities Notation in bookData model: Z p(Z|Y,θ) [Z|Y,θ]Process model: Y p(Y|θ) [Y|θ]Parameter model: θ p(θ) [θ]
Simultaneous model: p(y, z,θ)Marginal model: p(z) =
∫θ∫
y p(z, y|θ)dydθ
Inference: θ =∫θ θp(θ|z)dθ
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Bayesian approach - example
Assume z1, ..., zm are iid, zi = µ+ εi , εi ∼ N(0, σ2)σ2 known, interest in estimating µ.ML: µML = z , Var[z ] = σ2/m
Bayesian approach: Assume µ ∼ N(µ0, kσ2)
Can show that
E [µ|z] =k−1µ0 + mz
k−1 + mk→∞→ z
Var[µ|z] =σ2
k−1 + mk→∞→ σ2
m
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Bayesian approach - example
Assume z1, ..., zm are iid, zi = µ+ εi , εi ∼ N(0, σ2)σ2 known, interest in estimating µ.ML: µML = z , Var[z ] = σ2/m
Bayesian approach: Assume µ ∼ N(µ0, kσ2)
Can show that
E [µ|z] =k−1µ0 + mz
k−1 + mk→∞→ z
Var[µ|z] =σ2
k−1 + mk→∞→ σ2
m
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Prediction - example
Predict new point z0.Plug-in-rule: z0 = z , var[z0] = σ2
Bayesian approach:
E [z0|z] =E [E [z0|µ, z]] = E [µ|z]
=k−1µ0 + mz
k−1 + mk→∞→ z
var[z0|z] =E [var[z0|µ, z]] + var[E [z0|µ, z]]
=σ2 + var[µ|z]
=σ2 +σ2
k−1 + mk→∞→ σ2 +
σ2
m
Taking uncertainty in µ into account.
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Prediction - example
Predict new point z0.Plug-in-rule: z0 = z , var[z0] = σ2
Bayesian approach:
E [z0|z] =E [E [z0|µ, z]] = E [µ|z]
=k−1µ0 + mz
k−1 + mk→∞→ z
var[z0|z] =E [var[z0|µ, z]] + var[E [z0|µ, z]]
=σ2 + var[µ|z]
=σ2 +σ2
k−1 + mk→∞→ σ2 +
σ2
m
Taking uncertainty in µ into account.
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INLA
INLA = Integrated nested Laplace approximation (software)C-code, R-interfaceCan be installed by
source("http://www.math.ntnu.no/inla/givemeINLA.R")
Both empirical Bayes and Bayes
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Example - simulated data
Assume
Y (s) =β0 + β1x(s) + σδδ(s), {δ(s)} matern correlation
Z (si ) =Y (si ) + σεε(si ), {ε(si )} independent
Simulations:
Simulation on 20× 30 grid
{x(s)} sinus curve in horizontal direction
Parametervalues (β0, β1) = (2, 0.3), σδ = 1, σε = 0.3 and(θ1, θ2) = (2, 3)
Show imagesShow code/results
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Matern model - parametrization
Model Range par Smoothness parBook ∝ {||h||/θ1}θ2Kθ2(||h||/θ1) θ1 θ2geoR ∝ {||h||/φ}κKκ(||h||/φ) φ κINLA ∝ {||h|| ∗ κ}νKν(||h|| ∗ κ) 1/κ ν
Note: INLA reports an estimate of another “range”, defined as
r =
√8
κ
corresponding to a distance where the covariance function isapproximately zero. An estimate of the range parameter can then beobtained by
1
κ=
r√8
Note: INLA works with precisions τy = σ−2y , τz = σ−2z .
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Output INLA
Empirical Bayes
Fixed effects:mean sd 0.025quant 0.5quant 0.975quant kld
(Intercept) 2.5757115 0.006218343 2.5635180 2.5757114 2.5879077 0x 0.3714519 0.040367838 0.2922947 0.3714515 0.4506262 0
Random effects:Name Model Max KLDdelta Matern2D model
Model hyperparameters:mean sd 0.025quant 0.5quant
Precision for the Gaussian observations 28.8979 1.5841 25.9174 28.8546Precision for delta 2.2549 0.1507 1.9738 2.2498Range for delta 5.9772 0.2936 5.4222 5.9700
0.975quantPrecision for the Gaussian observations 32.1247Precision for delta 2.5644Range for delta 6.5730
Marginal Likelihood: -455.08Warning: Interpret the marginal likelihood with care if the prior model is improper.Posterior marginals for linear predictor and fitted values computed
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Result - INLA - empirical Bayes
Parameter True value Estimateβ1 2.0 2.423β2 0.3 0.357σz 0.3 1√
13.2739= 0.274
σy 1.0 1√0.5802
= 1.313
φ1 2.0 5.977√8
= 2.113
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Ordinary kriging
E [Y (s)] = µ, µ unknown, obs Z = (Z1, ...,Zm)MSPE(λ) = E [Y (s0)− λTZ)2
Constraint: E [λTZ] = E [Y (s0)] = µE [λTZ] = λTE [Z] = λT1µ⇒ λT1 = 1Lagrange multiplier: Minimize MSPE(λ)− 2κ(λT1− 1)
MSPE(λ) = CY (s0, s0)− 2λT cY (s0) + λTCZλ
Differentiation wrt λT :
−2cY (s0) + 2CZλ =2κ1
λT1 =1
λ∗ =C−1Z [cY (s0) + κ∗1]
κ∗ =1− cY (s0)TC−1Z 1
1TC−1Z 1
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Kriging
Simple kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, known
Y ∗(s0) = x(s0)β + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβ)
Ordinary kriging, EY (s) = µ, unknown
Y (s0) ={cY (s0) +1(1− 1TCZ−1cy (s0))
1TC−1Z 1}TC−1Z Z
=µgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− 1µgls)
µgls =[1TC−1Z 1]−11TC−1z Z
Universal kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, unknown
Y (s0) =x(s0)T βgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβgls)
βgls =[XTC−1Z X]−1XTC−1z Z
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Kriging
Simple kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, known
Y ∗(s0) = x(s0)β + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβ)
Ordinary kriging, EY (s) = µ, unknown
Y (s0) ={cY (s0) +1(1− 1TCZ−1cy (s0))
1TC−1Z 1}TC−1Z Z
=µgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− 1µgls)
µgls =[1TC−1Z 1]−11TC−1z Z
Universal kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, unknown
Y (s0) =x(s0)T βgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβgls)
βgls =[XTC−1Z X]−1XTC−1z Z
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Kriging
Simple kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, known
Y ∗(s0) = x(s0)β + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβ)
Ordinary kriging, EY (s) = µ, unknown
Y (s0) ={cY (s0) +1(1− 1TCZ−1cy (s0))
1TC−1Z 1}TC−1Z Z
=µgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− 1µgls)
µgls =[1TC−1Z 1]−11TC−1z Z
Universal kriging, EY (s) = x(s)Tβ, unknown
Y (s0) =x(s0)T βgls + cY (s0)TC−1Z (Z− Xβgls)
βgls =[XTC−1Z X]−1XTC−1z Z
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Non-Gaussian data
Counts, binary data: Gaussian assumption inappropriate
Can still have Gaussian assumption on latent process, butnon-Gaussian data-distribution
Y (s) =x(s)Tβ + ε(s), {ε(s)} Gaussian process
Z (si )|Y (si ), θ1 ∼ind.f(Y (si ), θ1)
Best linear predictor still possible, but not reasonable (?)
Conditional expectation E [Y (s0)|Z] still optimal under square lossNot easy to compute anymore
Exponential-family model (EFM)
f (z) = exp{(zη − b(η))/a(θ1) + c(z , θ1)}η =xTβ
Include Binomial, Poisson, Gaussian, Gamma
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Estimation
Likelihood
L(θ) = p(z;θ) =
∫y
p(z|y;θ)p(y;θ)dθ
Gaussian processes: Can be derived analyticallyNon-Gaussian: Can be problematic
Monte Carlo
Laplace approximations
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Computation of conditional expectation
E [Y (s0)|Z] = E [E [Y (s0)|Y,Z]]
Monte Carlo:
E [E [Y (s0)|Y,Z]] ≈ 1
M
M∑m=1
E [Y (s0)|Ym,Z]
where Ym ∼ [Y|Z] (MCMC)
Laplace approximation: Approximate [Y|Z] by a Gaussian
Computer software available for both approahces.
Also give uncertainty measures var[Y (s0)|Z].
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Laplace approximation
L(θ) =p(z;θ) =
∫y
p(z|y;θ)p(y;θ)dy =
∫y
exp{f (y;θ)}dy
where
f (y;θ) = log p(z|y;θ) + log p(y;θ)
Taylor approximation, y0 max-point of f (y;θ) (depending on θ)
f (y) ≈f (y0)− 1
2(y − y0)TH(y − y0), H = − ∂2
∂y∂yTf (y)|y=y0
L(θ) ≈∫
y
exp{f (y0)− 1
2(y − y0)TH(y − y0)}dy
= exp{f (y0)}(2π)m/2|H|1/2
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Example - simulated data
Assume
Y (s) =β0 + β1x(s) + σδδ(s), {δ(s)} matern correlation
Z (si ) ∼Poisson(exp(Y (si ))
Simulations:
Simulation on 20× 30 grid
{x(s)} sinus curve in horizontal direction
Parametervalues (β0, β1) = (2, 0.3), σδ = 1, σε = 0.3 and(θ1, θ2) = (2, 3)
Show imagesShow code/results
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