Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand · Chapter 4 –Conducting Marketing...
Transcript of Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand · Chapter 4 –Conducting Marketing...
Chapter 4 – Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand
Md Afnan Hossain – Lecturer SouthEast UniversityCourse Code: Mkt 3123 (D,E)
Contents Source: Kotlar, Keller, Koshy, Jha (2014) Marketing Management.
Forbes, The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Business Week, CNN Business
Marketing Management
What is Marketing Research?
Marketing research is the systematic
design, collection, analysis, and reporting of
data and findings relevant to a specific
marketing situation facing the company.
The Marketing Research Process
Define the problem
Develop research plan
Collect information
Analyze information
Present findings
Make
decision
Research Approaches
Observation
Ethnographic--link between culture & behavior
&/or how cultural processes develop over time
(participant observation)
Focus group—discuss topics of interest (LS)
Survey—knowledge, beliefs, preferences,
satisfaction
Behavioral data--Data—purchasing data
Experimentation—cause and effect
relationships
Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
Ensure questions are free
of bias
Make questions simple
Make questions specific
Avoid jargon
Avoid sophisticated words
Avoid ambiguous words
Avoid negatives
Avoid hypothetical's
Avoid words that could be
misheard
Use mutually exclusive
categories
Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions
Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
No one
Spouse
Spouse and children
Children only
Business associates/friends/relatives
An organized tour group
Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the
following statement: Small airlines generally give
better service than large ones.
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…….Small
Experienced………………….….Inexperienced
Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned
Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
Extremely important
Very important
Somewhat important
Not very important
Not at all important
Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
Excellent
Very good
Good
Fair
Poor
Question Types –
Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on
American Airlines if in-flight Internet access
were available?
Definitely buy
Probably buy
Not sure
Probably not buy
Definitely not buy
Question Types –
Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind
when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________
Question Types –
Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
__________________.
Question Types –
Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that
the exterior and interior of the plane had very
bright colors. This aroused in me the following
thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story.
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
_______________________________________
Question Types –
Thematic Apperception Test
Make up a story that reflects what you think is happening in this picture.
Qualitative Measures
Shadowing—observing people
Behavior mapping—photographing
people with a space—2 or 3 days
Consumer journey—keeping track of
interactions a consumer has with a product, service,
or space
Camera journals—ask consumers to keep
visual diaries of activities and impression
related to a product
Extreme user interviews—talking to
people about a product and evaluating their
experience with it
Storytelling—prompting people to tell
personal stories about their consumer
experiences
Unfocused groups—interview a
diverse group of people to explore ideas
Technological Devices
Galvanometers (measure
interest or emotions aroused by
Exposure to a specific ad or picture)
Tachistoscope (flashes an ad to a
Subject with an exposure interval and
respondent describes everything he/she recalls)
Eye cameras (study respondents’
eye movement to see where their eyes
land 1st and how long, etc.)
Audiometers (record when TV is on
and the channel)
GPS (global positioning system, can
Determine how many billboards a person
may walk or drive by during a day)
Sampling Plan
Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?
Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?
Types of Samples
Probability Simple random
Every member of population has an equal chance of selection
Stratified random
Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (age groups) and random samples are drawn from each group
Cluster area
Population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (city blocks) and a sample is taken from each group
Non-probability Convenience
Selects the most accessible population members
Judgment
Selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information
Quota
Selects and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories
4-25
Contact MethodsMail Questionnaire
(For people that would not give
personal interviews or whose responses
might be biased or distorted by interviewer)
Telephone Interview(Gather information quickly, however
interview are short and non-personal)
Personal Interview(Most versatile and expensive,
subject to interview bias or distortion)
Online Interview(Inexpensive, faster, honest, versatile, samples small
and skewed, tech problems and inconsistencies)
Pros and Cons of Online Research
Advantages
Inexpensive
Fast
Accuracy of data, even
for sensitive questions
Versatility
Disadvantages
Small samples
Skewed samples
Technological problems
Inconsistencies
Barriers Limiting the Use of
Marketing Research
A narrow conception of the research
Uneven caliber of researchers
Poor framing of the problem
Late and occasionally erroneous findings
Personality and presentational differences
What are Marketing Metrics?
Marketing metrics are the set of measures
that helps marketers quantify, compare, and
interpret marketing performance.
Marketing Metrics
External
Awareness
Market share
Relative price
Number of complaints
Customer satisfaction
Distribution
Total number of customers
Loyalty
Internal
Awareness of goals
Commitment to goals
Active support
Resource adequacy
Staffing levels
Desire to learn
Willingness to change
Freedom to fail
Autonomy
What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?
Marketing-mix models analyze data from a
variety of sources, such as retailer scanner
data, company shipment data, pricing, media,
and promotion spending data, to understand
more precisely the effects of specific
marketing activities.
Marketing Dashboards
A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures.
A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.
Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
Market demand—total volume that would be bought by a defined customer
group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined
marketing environment under a defined marketing program.
Market forecast—expected level of industry expenditure
Market potential—upper limit of industry expenditure
Company demand—estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of
company marketing effort in a given time period.
Company sales forecast—expected level of company sales based on a
chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment.
Company sales potential—sales limit approached by company demand as
company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors.
Estimating Current Demand Total market potential
Maximum amount of sales available to all the firms in an industry during: a given period
under a given level of industry marketing effort, and
environmental conditions.
Area market potential
Market buildup method Identifying all potential buyers in each market and estimating
their potential purchases
Multiple-factor index method Sales are directly related to a series of indices
Brand development index
Index of brand sales to category sales
Estimating Future Demand
Survey of Buyers’ Intentions—probability of
purchase
Composite of Sales Force Opinions—salespeople
Expert Opinion—dealers, distributors, suppliers,
marketing consultants, trade associations
Past-Sales Analysis—trend, cycle, seasonal, erratic
Market-Test Method—select some territories to sell
the product