CHAPTER 3 THE CALCULATIONS OF RISK. Basic risk calculations Risk severity: Severity reaches a...
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Transcript of CHAPTER 3 THE CALCULATIONS OF RISK. Basic risk calculations Risk severity: Severity reaches a...
CHAPTER 3THE CALCULATIONS OF RISK
Basic risk calculations Risk severity: Severity reaches a maximum when we
are in a complete uncertainty (where it is difficult to make a decision).
Complete certainty reach where risk severity is zero (the possibility of loss = zero) or the possibility of loss = one true).
Risk severity
Positive decision
Negative decision
100%
80%
0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Probability is a measure or estimation of how likely it
is that something will happen or that a statement is true. Probabilities are given a value between 0 (0% chance or will not happen) and 1 (100% chance or will happen).
uncertainty
Absolute certaintyAbsolute Impossibility
10
Risk measures The expected loss value: The expected loss value = loss value x probability
of the loss.
Quantitative measures of risk:
measuring risk given the impact of loss:The following table shows the probability distribution of the total losses of five cars, each worth 10,000 ryalLoss valueLoss value probabilityprobability
ZeroZero 0.6060.606
500500 0.2740.274
10001000 0.1000.100
20002000 0.0140.014
50005000 0.0030.003
1000010000 0.0020.002
2000020000 0.0010.001
Exercise (continued) Required: May not achieve any financial losses for
those cars. Prospect of financial losses for those
cars. Prospect of losses equal to or greater
than 2000 ryal. Prospect of losses of more than 5000
ryal. Prospect of losses worth 10,000.
Determining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure)
Standard DeviationStandard Deviation, , is a statistical measure of the variability of a distribution around its mean.
Coefficient of Variation
The ratio of the standard deviation standard deviation of a distribution to the mean mean of that
distribution.
It is a measure of RELATIVERELATIVE risk.
CV = /XX
EXAMPLES
The following examples illustrate methods of calculating the loss in different situations Example (1):The following data gives losses due to the fire of a factory in five successive years
year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Amount of loss
20 21 0 22 17
Example1 (continued)
Using the information’s in the table above calculate the following 1. Average loss (expected value of loss for the following)2. The standard deviation of the loss .3. Coefficient of variation of loss C.V.
x
SOLUTION We Symbolizes the amount of (loss per
thousand) as the symbol xwe have the following table:
X X2
20 400
21 441
0 0
22 484
17 289
80 1614
solution(continued) The value of each: the expected value
of loss , the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of loss are calculated as the follows:
=
Solution (continued)
Example2 A transport company for tourism and
travel Owns 800 cars, the following table gives the frequency distribution of non-motor vehicle accidents of the company and the resulting losses estimated (in ryal thousands)
Example2 (continued)Using the information’s in the table above calculate the following 1. Average loss (expected value of loss for the following)2. The standard deviation of the loss .
Categories of loss (in thousand ryal
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 100-120
Number of cars 300 220 140 80 42 18
Categories of loss(per
thousand ryal)
Number of
cars
F
Center
categories
X
Fx Fx2
0- 300 10 3000 30000
20- 220 30 6600 198000
40- 140 50 7000 350000
60- 80 70 5600 392000
80- 42 90 3780 34200
100-120 18 110 1980 217800
total 800 -------- 27960 1528000