CHAPTER 3 PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
Transcript of CHAPTER 3 PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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CHAPTER 3 PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
This Chapter provides the basic planning data pertinent to the Water System Plan. It provides a description of the water system’s service area, population, service connections, water use, equivalent residential units, projected land use, future population, and water demand.
3.1 SERVICE AREA BOUNDARIES
As described in Chapter 2, the retail service area (also referred to as “water service area” or “WSA”), is located within the incorporated area of the City of Kent, plus three small, unincorporated areas under the jurisdiction of King County. Figure 1-1 shows the City limits and service area boundaries. The boundaries were established under the adopted Critical Water Supply Plan for South King County and cover approximately 24 square miles.
On the East, the service area boundary coincides with that of Water District No. 111 and Soos Creek Water and Sewer District, on the North it coincides with the mutual city limits of Kent/Renton and Kent/Tukwila, on the West it coincides with that of Highline Water District, and on the South it coincides with the service area boundary of the City of Auburn.
3.2 EXISTING LAND USE
As indicated on the Land Use Map (Figure 3-2), the hillsides and plateaus flanking the Green River Valley contain distinctly different uses from those in the valley. On the East Hill, scattered developments of single family homes are surrounded by rural residential area and by pasturelands. A few wooded areas are found, especially on steep slopes. Multi-family residential areas are concentrated along Kent-Kangley Road, although some are also found North along 104th Avenue SE, SE 240th and SE 256th Streets. Parks are located throughout the City, but are mainly found along the Green River, Mill Creek and Soos Creek. Commercial areas are concentrated along 104th Avenue SE, particularly at the intersections of 104th Avenue SE and SE 240th Street, and 104th Avenue SE and Kent-Kangley Road. There are minor amounts of land used for office space along Kent-Kangley, 104th Avenue SE, and SE 240th Street.
Historically, the Green River Valley was used for agricultural purposes because of its excellent soil. However, because of its location near urban centers, transportation corridors and facilities, and because of construction of flood control improvements for the Green River, the valley has transformed into an industrial area with residential areas lining the hillsides. As indicated in Table 3-1, an area once primarily serving agriculture production now contains only 239 acres zoned specifically for agriculture uses.
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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Table 3-1: Current Land Use Allocation City of Kent Water Service Area
Land Use Classification Approximate Acres % of City’s WSA
Single Family Residential 4,462 29.3%
Multi-Family Residential 1,275 8.4%
Commercial/Retail 1,061 7.0%
Industrial 4,863 32.0%
Agricultural 239 1.5%
Parks 1,335 8.8%
Roads, Streams, Lakes, and Designated Critical Areas 1,978 13.0%
Total 15,213 100%
Note: Estimates are based on best available land use GIS information from the City of Kent and King County.
On the valley floor, commercial areas dominate the Central Business District (CBD) between James and Willis Streets; between Kennebeck Avenue and SR 167; and are scattered heavily throughout the central and eastern portions of the Valley. Commercial development extends from the CBD west along Meeker Street and south along Central Avenue. Multi-family residential development is located mostly between Meeker and 228th Street west of West Valley Highway (SR 181) and between SE 236th and SE 222nd Streets (if said streets were constructed) east of 88th Avenue South with other blocks scattered around the CBD. Single family residential areas are found around the CBD and scattered in small amounts throughout the Valley floor. For the most part, residential agriculture is sparsely scattered along the west side of the Green River. Open space and undeveloped parcels are dispersed throughout the City, with several large tracts located in the western portion of the central valley. Industrial areas occupy more space than any other classification in the valley; larger properties are found primarily north of S. 228th Street, between West Valley Highway and the Green River; smaller industrial properties are south of 228th, mostly along Central Avenue and SR 167.
Single family residential use dominates the West Hill area with commercial areas at scattered locations. There are some areas of multi-family residential use on the eastern slope, but the slope itself is primarily undeveloped due to its severity and associated sensitive area designation.
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See Map InsetData source: City Of Kent GIS & King County GIS
Scale 1:44,400/
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City of Kent2011 Water System PlanLegend
Kent City Limits
Kent Retail Water Service Area
Urban Growth Area (UGA)
Agricultural (A-10)Agricultural / General (AG)Industrial Agricultural (MA)Single Family (SR-1)Single Family (SR-3)Single Family (SR-4.5)Single Family (SR-6)Single Family (SR-8)Duplex Multifamily (MR-D)Townhouse / Condo (MRT-12)Townhouse / Condo (MRT-16)Garden Density Multifamily (MR-G)Medium Density Multifamily (MR-M)High Density Multifamily (MR-H)Mobile Home Park (MHP)Neighborhood Convenience Commercial (NCC)Downtown Commercial (DC)Downtown Commercial Enterprise (DCE)Community Commercial (CC)Community Commercial / Mixed Use (CC-MU)Gateway Commercial (GWC)General Commercial (GC)General Commercial / Mixed Use (GC-MU)Commercial Manufacturing I (CM-1)Commercial Manufacturing II (CM-2)Professional And Office (O)Professional and Office / Mixed Use (O-MU)Industrial Park (M1)Industrial Park / Commercial (M1-C)Limited Industrial (M2)General Industrial (M3)
Outside City of Kent Zoning DistrictsKing Co. Agricultural, 1 DU per 10 acresKing Co. IndustrialKing Co. Residential, 1 DU per acreKing Co. Residential, 4 DU per acre
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CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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3.3 PROPOSED LAND USE
Zoning within the water service area is based upon the City’s Comprehensive Land Use Plan and the King County Comprehensive Plan, which provides a framework for development. Examining the plans for land use and reviewing recent development trends are critical to determining future water demands. Much of the Valley is zoned for Industrial, Commercial, and Multi-Family uses, while the hillsides and the higher elevations are zoned primarily Single Family Residential, Multi-family Residential, and Neighborhood Commercial. For the purposes of this Plan, the terms “higher density residential” and “multi-family residential” are used interchangeably. A copy of the future land use plan map, which includes the City’s WSA boundary, is provided as Figure 3-2.
3.3.1 East Hill
Land use plans for the East Hill area indicate that single family residential development is anticipated to occur in nearly all of the remaining pastureland, wooded areas, and rural residential area over the next 22 years, although some rural residential zoning has been retained near Soos Creek and further east. Green belts, or open space, will remain primarily along the creeks and hillsides. Additional higher density residential development may occur in designated areas located near East Hill arterials. The commercial areas at 104th Avenue SE and SE 240th Street and at 104th Avenue SE and Kent-Kangley Road will expand, but other neighborhood commercial areas will remain essentially unchanged. Office space and limited commercial use will expand to include all of the area on 104th Avenue SE between SE 240th Street and SE 256th Street (Kent-Kangley intersection). This use will also dominate in the area bordering Mill Creek, southwest of the Kent-Kangley intersection at 104th Avenue SE.
A portion of the service area falls within King County’s Soos Creek Plateau Land Use Plan. The Soos Creek Plan covers the eastern portion of the East Hill area and other substantial areas lying to the east. The land use of the service area that falls within the Soos Creek Plan is Single and Multi-Family Residential and Neighborhood Commercial, which is consistent with the City’s Comprehensive Plan.
3.3.2 Central Valley
In the Valley, industrial use is expected to occupy all of the area north of S. 228th Street and SR 167 and east of the Green River. Exceptions to this are incidental commercial uses and the 259 acre Green River Natural Resources Area as described in the following paragraph. There will also be substantial tracts of industrial land south of the Green River along SR 167 and a smaller area, just southwest of the CBD and north and east of the Green River. The commercial areas along Central Avenue will expand, as well as those in the CBD and along the West Meeker/West Valley Highway intersection. Single family residential use will continue to be supplanted by commercial and higher density residential uses. Largely due to increased commuter
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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service planned by Sound Transit, higher density residential development will continue at a higher rate as compared to other areas of the water service area, occupying large tracts scattered near commercial uses and areas designated as transit-oriented development. Open spaces will remain in place and in some cases will be expanded along the Green River and on steep slopes. Agricultural land will remain only south and west of the Green River. Table 3-1 lists the various land uses within the City’s Water Service Area.
The addition of the Green River Natural Resources Area (GRNRA) has reduced the industrial capacity of the valley floor by 259 acres. The GRNRA is bordered to the North by S. 212th Street, to the South by S. 224th Street, to the West by the Green River, and to the East by 64th avenue South. The area includes existing, enhanced, and created wetlands. It provides regional stormwater detention and serves as a wildlife habitat enhancement area. The City owns the property and it will not be available for future development, as it has been designated to remain as open space.
3.3.3 West Hill
On West Hill, the single family residential use will continue to define the character of the area. Some areas of existing single-family use are designated in the Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map for commercial use, and as such, must be planned for at its highest use in order to maintain safe fire flow requirements. Changes in the West Hill area have been an increased density for residential uses, including several new higher density developments occurring along the east slope where Interstate Highway 5 (I-5) is easily accessible. The few remaining undeveloped parcels zoned for higher residential use have steep slopes that may prohibit development.
3.3.4 Citywide Summary
The City of Kent Comprehensive Plan Land Use Element and Map indicate available capacity for infill development and redevelopment in specifically-designated areas. The Valley floor will be dominated by industrial uses, with commercial and higher density residential development also making up significant portions of the area. The West Hill will have fewer changes with the exception of possible higher density residential development. The East Hill has potential for higher density infill and/or increases in commercial uses within the 20-year planning horizon.
The effect of these changes will result in increased water demands primarily in the Central Valley and East Hill areas, in addition to expected changes in fire flow requirements to address potential changes in land use.
UnincorporatedKing County(Outside UGA)
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Data source: City Of Kent GIS & King County GIS
City of Kent2011 Water System Plan
LegendKent City Limits
Kent Retail Water Service Area
Urban Growth Area (UGA)
Agricultural ResourceAgricultural SupportParks And Open SpaceUrban SeparatorSingle Family 3 Units/AcreSingle Family 4.5 Units/Acre Single Family 6 Units/AcreSingle Family 8 Units/AcreLow Density MultifamilyMedium Density MultifamilyMobile Home ParkCommercialUrban CenterMixed UseNeighborhood ServicesIndustrialManufacturing/Industrial CenterKing Co. Urban Residential 1 Unit/AcreKing Co. Urban Residential 4-12 Units/AcreKing Co. Urban Residential 12+ Units/AcreKing Co. Community Business CenterKing Co. Neighborhood Business CenterKing Co. Other Parks/Wilderness
Outside City of Kent Land Use PlanKing Co. AgricultureKing Co. Greenbelt/Urban SeparatorKing Co. IndustrialKing Co. Open Space SystemKing Co. Urban Residential, Low (1du/acre)
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CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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3.4 POPULATION/SERVICE CONNECTIONS
3.4.1 Current Population
Population and employment estimates in the retail water service area are based on numbers derived from the City’s recently produced Transportation Master Plan (TMP), published in draft form in December 2006. The TMP provided analysis through data developed through a combined effort of City of Kent Planning Staff and Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) staff. The PSRC regularly provides current and projected employment and population data through the Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) and Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZs). The TMP effort produced more detailed employment (by sector) and household data (Single Family and Multi-Family) at the “K-Zone” level. K-Zones are defined sub-areas of TAZs, developed to help define housing and employment for areas that range from 8 - 1200 acres in size. The average K-Zone is 175 acres, while the average TAZ area is 2,800 acres.
The TMP provided baseline household units (HH) and employment data at the K-Zone level for the year 2005, as well as projected HH units and jobs for 2010, 2020, and 2030. For the purposes of this Plan, “straight-line” projections have been used for population and employment estimates for years that fall between those periods.
3.4.2 Projected Population and Employment
Projections for future population and employment within the water service area, as previously described, are based on analyses conducted for the City’s TMP, and are provided in Table 3-2. The TMP was based on the policies and planning presented in the City’s adopted 2004 Comprehensive Plan, and it utilized more current data in its transportation planning analyses. The TMP analyzed information provided by the PSRC which contained household and employment estimates for the years 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030. Using local planning knowledge, adjustments were made to the PSRC data by City Planning staff. Estimates were calculated for existing conditions (2005) and a future “build-out” scenario for the year 2030. From these data, the straight-line projection approach was applied, as previously described. The process for projecting population and employment is discussed in detail in the Technical Memorandum on Water Demand Forecasting, provided in Appendix D.
Table 3-2: Projected Population and Employment City of Kent, Retail Water Service Area
Year 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Population 64,861 65,548 66,006 67,151 68,295 69,440 70,585
Employment 53,000 54,965 56,275 59,549 62,823 66,098 69,372
Sources: Historical and projected estimations based on City of Kent’s 2008 Draft Transportation Master Plan.
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3.5 WATER CONSUMPTION DATA
As identified in the Conservation Planning Requirements prepared by the Department of Health and Department of Ecology, current data are required to develop water demand projections for public water systems and to provide a basis for the evaluation of the effectiveness of conservation programs. The data collection schedule for the City’s water system is shown below by data type and frequency and will be collected on an ongoing basis. Other conservation measures which are tracked by the City are outlined in Chapter 4 of this document.
• Source of supply meter - daily readings, report monthly and in annual totals
• Emergency interties/wholesale - monthly (if applicable)
• Peak day/peak month/annual totals
• Unaccounted-for water annually
• Accounted for water - monthly
Service meter readings – monthly/annually
Single-family
Multi-family
Commercial/government/industrial
Agriculture
• Population served – annual totals
• Economic data – existing water rights
• Conservation data – reviewed monthly, reported annually
3.5.1 Rate of Growth
There are several factors which have a direct influence on the rate of growth. In determining the rate, water production records, metered data, and population and employment forecasts were evaluated. The final rate of growth was determined using the forecasted population and employment growth analyses developed by the City’s TMP based from the 2004 Comprehensive Plan. Recent water production trends from 2005-2007 dictated a base year of production, and anticipated growth was applied to various customer types for future years.
Recent water production records are shown in Table 3-3, and longer term production is illustrated in Figures 3-3 and 3-4. As depicted, the water production rate of growth from 2005-2007 did not change significantly, even though population and employment increased by 1.06% and 3.71%, respectively, over the time period. As Figure 3-4 illustrates, in the last twenty years total water production has remained steady at approximately 3 billion gallons. In 1996, the estimated population in the
CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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retail water service area was 48,129 and the total water consumption for that year was just over 3.1 billion gallons. So while population growth from 1996-2006 increased by approximately 35%, water production remained neutral. In fact, the last seven years (2004-2010) show a slightly declined average of just under 2.8 billion gallons. These two facts demonstrate the City’s conservation efforts have been successful.
The total metered consumption records (Water Sales) provided by the Utility Billing Department is also provided in Table 3-3. The percentage of unaccounted-for water, also known under the Municipal Water Law as system leakage, was determined by comparing the recorded production meter readings (readings taken at the water sources) with all known customer consumption and other accounted-for water uses (i.e., dead end main flushing, draining reservoirs / tanks, water used to fight fires, testing hydrants, and hydrant usage during development). Recorded consumption represents the combination of all water billing sales and all other recorded non-revenue water uses. The result shows an annual average of non-revenue water as a percentage of overall system production of 5.4%. For the purposes of calculating future water demands and storage needs, a more conservative assumed system non-revenue rate of 6% was applied to estimated projections. Also shown in Table 3-3 are the actual Peak Day Demand (PDD) and Average Day Demand (ADD) during 2004-2010, which resulted in an average Peaking Factor of 1.76. The Peaking Factor is a critical number used in planning for storage facilities and source reliability in the context of maintaining minimum fire flow requirements.
Table 3-3: Historical Water Usage, Production, and Sales (MG) City of Kent, Retail Water Service Area
Description 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average
Peak Month Demand 352.32 373.33 355.31 338.37 331.5 337.05 320.57 344.06
Peak Month Aug July July July July Aug Aug July
Peak Day Demand 14.98 12.87 13.32 13.85 12.92 14.56 11.45 13.42
Average Day Demand 8.02 6.89 7.60 7.24 7.65 7.47 6.65 7.64
Peaking Factor (PDD/ADD) 1.87 1.87 1.75 1.91 1.69 1.95 1.72 1.76
Recorded Water Production 2,929 2,818 2,938 2,880 2,794 2,727 2,429 2,788
Recorded Water Consumption 2,761 2,666 2,792 2,697 2,621 2,587 2,324 2,635
Total Non-revenue water 168 151 145 183 173 140 105 152
% Non-revenue (NR) water 5.72% 5.37% 4.95% 6.37% 6.19% 5.13% 4.32% 5.44%
Accounted-for NR water 53 52 54 52 54 36 26 47
Unaccounted-for NR water 114 100 91 131 119 104 79 106
% Unaccounted-for water 3.90% 3.53% 3.11% 4.55% 4.26% 3.81% 3.25% 3.78% Source: Annual Billing Records & Water Production Information. Note: NR = Non-Revenue
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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Figure 3-3 shows the comparison ADD to PDD since 1984, while Figure 3-4 examines historic production, sales, and Unaccounted-for Water (also known as System Leakage) since 1993. In 1997 the Water Department started to meter all water used in the flushing program. In addition, a major system leak (140+ gpm) was corrected at the Guiberson Street Reservoir. With this correction, operational changes to the flushing program, and a high priority of addressing system leaks and reducing water losses, the Water department is meeting the City Council’s adopted goal of keeping unaccounted-for water below six percent each year. The Water Department has met this goal every year since 2001, as Table 3-4 illustrates below.
Table 3-4: Unaccounted-for Water as Percentage of Production City of Kent Water System
Year Water Production Water Sales + Accounted for Consumption
% Unaccounted-for Water
1993 2,907.22 2,532.53 12.89%
1994 3,228.76 2,900.52 10.17%
1995 3,139.75 2,743.05 12.63%
1996 3,124.02 2,743.48 12.18%
1997 3,094.06 2,827.97 8.60%
1998 3,134.65 2,883.88 8.00%
1999 3,091.55 2,881.33 6.80%
2000 3,072.40 2,871.77 6.53%
2001 2,835.02 2,706.96 4.52%
2002 2,869.51 2,760.36 3.80%
2003 2,961.74 2,861.90 3.37%
2004 2,928.52 2,814.21 3.90%
2005 2,817.60 2,718.05 3.53%
2006 2,937.95 2,846.52 3.11%
2007 2,879.86 2,748.91 4.55%
2008 2,793.97 2,674.90 4.26%
2009 2,727.35 2,622.81 3.82%
2010 2,428.83 2,349.82 3.26%
Source: City billing system and production meter data
By achieving this goal to keep unaccounted-for water (also referred to as distribution system leakage) as low as possible, the City is already in compliance with the Municipal Water Law’s new requirements for system leakage rates to be at or below 10%, based on a 3-year average. At some point in time, the percentage of unaccounted-for water will bottom out, and it will likely always remain above zero for
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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reasons such as human error, inaccurate meters, and unauthorized use. Nonetheless, Kent will continue to strive for lowering and maintaining a low percentage of unaccounted-for water.
3.5.2 Calculating Equivalent Resident Units (ERUs)
Table 3-5 provides recent ERU information for the City’s five primary Pressure Zones. The data from 2005-2010 shows single family residential ERU’s each year roughly corresponds with the number of estimated single family connections. One exception is in the 240 Zone, where average use per single family connection during 2005-2010 averaged 148 GPD, versus the overall City average of 185 GPD. The net effect is a smaller number of ERUs as compared to actual meters. Since ERUs are used to project future water demand requirements, overestimating future single family consumption in the 240 Zone is avoided.
Due to limitations of the City’s current utility billing system, not all meters could be identified by customer type and pressure zone. Of the City’s 13,500 meters identified in 2008, approximately 800 unclassified meters needed to be assigned a customer type and pressure zone to complete the analysis. The estimated number of meters was calculated based on the average GPD provided by known meter records, and unclassified consumption was allocated proportionately through the five primary zones. The process for determining ERUs and estimated meters is detailed in the Technical Memorandum on Forecasting, provided in Appendix D.
The number of multi-family and commercial ERUs changes each year depending on the average residential consumption volume and the total volumes used by the multi-family and commercial classes in an equivalent duration of time. Depending on the volume of consumption in the multi-family and commercial classifications, the number of ERUs has the potential to increase or decrease each year.
PAGE 3 - 15
Table 3-5: Estimated Consumption (MG), Meters, and ERUs by Pressure Zone and Customer Type City of Kent Water System, 2005-2010
2005 2006 2007 Zone Customer Type Consumption Meters ERUs Consumption Meters ERUs Consumption Meters ERUs
52
9 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 2.03 26 30 2.05 26 30 2.23 26 34
Government / Education 2.86 12 42 3.20 12 46 2.51 12 38 Irrigation 4.36 7 65 3.28 7 47 4.27 7 65
Multi-Family 11.83 20 175 10.43 20 150 10.66 21 161 Single Family 130.30 1,734 1,932 136.34 1,757 1,967 132.26 1,788 1,997
Sub-Total 529 Zone 151.38 1,799 2,245 155.31 1,822 2,240 151.93 1,854 2,295
35
4 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 0.12 3 2 0.18 3 3 0.15 3 2
Government / Education 0.00 1 0 0.00 1 0 0.00 1 0 Irrigation 0.00 1 0 1.72 1 25 0.69 1 10
Multi-Family 13.99 19 207 12.35 20 178 11.38 20 172 Single Family 13.76 192 204 15.31 207 221 14.89 209 225
Sub-Total 354 Zone 27.87 216 413 29.56 232 426 27.10 234 409
24
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 883.73 1,688 13,105 868.68 1,659 12,532 809.68 1,592 12,228
Government / Education 63.40 60 940 64.04 61 924 62.60 66 945 Irrigation 203.12 184 3,012 271.82 190 3,921 244.07 190 3,686
Multi-Family 362.92 763 5,382 371.46 772 5,359 373.22 783 5,637 Single Family 70.12 1,302 1,040 80.13 1,469 1,156 82.50 1,541 1,246
Sub-Total 240 Zone 1,583.29 3,997 23,478 1,656.13 4,151 23,891 1,572.06 4,172 23,742
48
5 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 17.09 35 253 17.20 35 248 19.42 37 293
Government / Education 1.07 5 16 0.95 5 14 0.92 5 14 Irrigation 7.10 10 105 7.12 10 103 5.63 10 85
Multi-Family 60.52 99 897 62.72 100 905 65.56 102 990 Single Family 91.61 1,326 1,359 99.36 1,375 1,433 97.29 1,416 1,469
Sub-Total 485 Zone 177.39 1,475 2,630 187.35 1,525 2,703 188.82 1,570 2,852
59
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 92.96 312 1,378 94.09 323 1,357 93.11 337 1,406
Government / Education 11.39 39 169 11.24 39 162 11.29 40 170 Irrigation 49.73 31 737 52.07 32 751 49.94 35 754
Multi-Family 280.80 510 4,164 289.66 520 4,179 286.87 524 4,332 Single Family 291.63 4,305 4,324 317.08 4,543 4,574 315.40 4,747 4,763
Sub-Total 590 Zone 726.51 5,197 10,773 764.14 5,457 11,023 756.61 5,683 11,427
All Z
on
es Commercial / Industrial 995.92 2,064 14,768 982.21 2,046 14,169 924.59 1,995 13,964
Government / Education 78.72 117 1,167 79.44 118 1,146 77.31 124 1,168
Irrigation 264.31 233 3,919 336.01 240 4,847 304.60 243 4,600
Multi-Family 730.06 1,411 10,826 746.61 1,432 10,770 747.69 1,450 11,292
Single Family 597.42 8,859 8,859 648.21 9,351 9,351 642.34 9,701 9,701
TOTAL 2,666 12,684 39,540 2,792 13,187 40,284 2,697 13,513 40,724
Notes: ERUs based on annual average consumption for SF households. All consumption data is in Million Gallons. Based on City of Kent water billing records.
PAGE 3 - 16
Table 3-5 (cont’d): Estimated Consumption (MG), Meters, and ERUs by Pressure Zone and Customer Type City of Kent Water System, 2005-2010
2008 2009 2010 Zone Customer Type Consumption Meters ERUs Consumption Meters ERUs Consumption Meters ERUs
52
9 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 2.21 23 31 2.77 24 40 2.32 25 39
Government / Education 3.11 13 44 4.94 13 70 3.89 13 65 Irrigation 3.15 9 44 3.87 9 55 1.53 9 26
Multi-Family 13.38 21 188 11.12 21 159 12.38 21 207 Single Family 133.52 1,722 1,880 134.78 1,743 1,922 116.98 1,784 1,953
Sub-Total 529 Zone 155.37 1,788 2,188 157.48 1,810 2,246 137.10 1,852 2,289
35
4 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 0.07 2 1 0.08 2 1 0.07 2 1
Government / Education 0.09 2 1 0.00 2 0 0.00 2 0 Irrigation 0.26 2 4 0.76 2 11 0.44 2 7
Multi-Family 12.81 20 180 9.21 20 131 11.10 20 185 Single Family 14.73 198 207 14.93 202 213 12.76 213 213
Sub-Total 354 Zone 27.96 224 394 630.94 228 356 8,997.49 239 407
24
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 665.21 1,383 9,368 630.94 1,417 8,997 577.28 1,457 9,639
Government / Education 29.24 71 412 28.17 71 402 25.88 72 432 Irrigation 246.38 193 3,470 284.83 196 4,062 216.84 197 3,621
Multi-Family 422.08 771 5,944 387.39 775 5,524 375.84 783 6,275 Single Family 91.47 1,548 1,288 92.77 1,646 1,323 84.59 1,727 1,412
Sub-Total 240 Zone 1,454.38 3,966 20,482 1,424.10 4,105 20,308 1,280.43 4,236 21,379
48
5 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 21.27 37 299 18.52 37 264 16.19 38 270
Government / Education 0.54 5 8 1.62 6 23 1.12 6 19 Irrigation 5.43 10 77 8.64 10 123 5.26 10 88
Multi-Family 70.39 99 991 62.67 102 894 58.76 102 981 Single Family 96.71 1,338 1,362 99.07 1,368 1,413 84.03 1,411 1,403
Sub-Total 485 Zone 194.34 1,489 2,737 190.50 1,523 2,717 165.35 1,567 2,761
59
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 91.12 320 1,283 84.09 329 1,199 80.42 337 1,343
Government / Education 16.46 42 232 14.14 42 202 12.02 45 201 Irrigation 42.84 43 603 51.91 44 740 30.89 44 516
Multi-Family 302.69 510 4,263 300.59 517 4,286 291.90 522 4,874 Single Family 335.75 4,660 4,728 339.02 4,746 4,834 301.34 4,878 5,031
Sub-Total 590 Zone 788.86 5,575 11,109 789.74 5,678 11,262 716.57 5,826 11,964
All Z
on
es Commercial / Industrial 779.88 1,765 10,983 736.41 1,809 10,501 676.28 1,859 11,292
Government / Education 49.44 133 696 48.86 134 697 42.90 138 716
Irrigation 298.07 257 4,198 350.00 261 4,991 254.96 262 4,257
Multi-Family 821.34 1,421 11,567 770.98 1,435 10,994 749.98 1,448 12,522
Single Family 672.17 9,466 9,466 680.56 9,705 9,705 599.69 10,013 10,013
TOTAL 2,621 13,042 36,909 2,587 13,344 36,889 2,324 13,720 38,801
Notes: ERUs based on annual average consumption for SF households. All consumption data is in Million Gallons. Based on City of Kent water billing records.
CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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3.6 WATER SYSTEM DEMANDS
In order to calculate future water system demands, it is necessary to evaluate water use characteristics of the various types of customers served by the City by an equal unit. This is accomplished by expressing multi-family and other non-residential customers in Equivalent Residential Units (ERUs). As detailed in the Technical Memorandum on Water Demand Forecasting in Appendix D, historical water records were researched to obtain the average daily demand of a single family residential customer. By dividing this average daily demand per ERU into the total consumption by other customer classes, the estimated ERU’s per customer type were determined.
3.6.1 Current Demands
The City’s Utility Billing Department classifies water customers under one of the six following categories: single family residential, multi-family residential, commercial / industrial, governmental, schools, or irrigation. For the purposes of projecting demands, the government and school connections were combined to form one customer type.
3.6.2 Seasonal Demands
Billed consumption records were used to determine average seasonal consumption, which was then used to evaluate the adequacy of existing sources of supply and storage facilities. As illustrated in Figure 3-5, as rainfall declines in the dry summer months, water consumption increases. This is especially true in areas serving residential connections. Commercial and Industrial consumption rates remain relatively unchanged throughout the year, with the exception of a few restaurant customers and in the case of irrigation uses. Government uses for parks irrigation also increase substantially in the dry season.
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3.6.3 Peak Day Demand
The equivalent residential unit (ERU) provides a common unit for all classification so they can be grouped to provide meaningful comparisons from one customer type to the next. This principal was utilized in determining future peak day demands. Once projected ERU’s were established they were multiplied by a consumption factor to determine the respective peak day demand. The factor is determined through review of historical data. The factor applied is a consumption volume per ERU. This factor is unique to each system and may fluctuate from year to year. Table 3-6 contains ERUs and other historical data evaluated. It should be noted that the City of Kent’s Utility Billing Department reads some water meters monthly, and others bi-monthly. It is not possible for the City to determine how much water each specific customer class uses per connection on any given day. Therefore, the Gal/ERU information in the below table only reflect average results.
Table 3-6: Gallons/ERU Historical Information City of Kent Water System
Year Number of ERU’s PDD (MG) PDD Gal/ERU ADD Gal/ERU
1997 35,161 15.92 452.77 241.09
1998 35,172 15.22 432.73 244.17
1999 36,927 13.03 352.86 229.37
2000 37,408 13.74 367.30 225.02
2001 37,853 11.88 313.85 205.19
2002 36,225 14.81 408.83 217.02
2003 35,356 14.70 415.77 229.50
2004 36,194 14.98 413.80 221.67
2005 39,540 12.87 344.35 184.76
2006 40,284 13.32 333.61 189.92
2007 40,724 13.85 354.01 181.41
2008 36,909 12.92 350.05 194.55
2009 36,889 14.56 394.70 192.12
2010 38,801 11.45 295.10 164.09
1997 – 2010 Average 373.55 208.56
Notes: Based on City of Kent Utility Billing System Records.
Peak day demand projections provide the City the ability to plan future
improvements around a worst case scenario. Analyses performed for this Plan vary
CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
PAGE 3 - 19
from the methodology employed in the previously adopted 2002 Water System Plan,
especially with regard to the planning and billing data used to evaluate projected
growth at the pressure zone level. Projecting population and employment growth by
pressure zone allows for the City to better plan for system facility upgrades since
many facilities are designed to serve specific areas with unique growth patterns. By
using the data developed in the City’s Draft Transportation Master Plan, the City
maintains a consistency in their approach towards transit and capital improvements.
The previous plan utilized common statistical analysis methods, complete with
standard deviations and various scenarios for growth based on best available data.
While the methodology for forecasting water demands is detailed in the Technical
Memorandum on Forecasting, the overall shift to predicting growth at the pressure
zone level represents the most significant difference in analysis between plans. The
result is lower, more realistic patterns of growth for the overall system. Figure 3-6
shows how water demand projections vary from this Plan to the 2002 Plan. The
highlighted (bottom) line represents the projected PDD (in MGs) resulting from this
Plan’s analyses.
Figure 3-6 shows a steady increase in Peak Day production over the next 22 years, but a significant departure from previous estimates. This departure from previously high estimates is a pattern that has been realized by Kent and other regional purveyors, and is due to the combination of a strong conservation effort and improved plumbing codes that have brought down average household consumption. Breaking down projections by month allows the City to evaluate how and when to use their various sources throughout the year. Figure 3-7 shows how forecasted
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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demands are likely to be spread over each month for the years 2008, 2014, 2020, and 2030. These estimates are based upon the average percentage of total production for respective months over the years 2005-2007. The result shows that by 2030, the City will likely need to produce nearly 450 million gallons in the month of August in order to meet total customer demands.
Values used to determine the peak day demand should reflect a worst case scenario. To stay consistent with this, a value of 358 gal/ERU is used for the peak day demand projections. In comparing this value with that of surrounding purveyors, Kent contains the second lowest PDD/ERU and ADD/ERU in the vicinity. Table 3-7 shows a comparison of these figures obtained from their most currently adopted Water System Plans. This is another reflection of an effective conservation program and a system with a low percentage of unaccounted-for water.
CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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Table 3-7: Peak & Average Day Demand Comparison City of Kent Area
Water Purveyor ADD/ERU PDD/ERU
Soos Creek Water (2004 plan – does not include volume for non-revenue water)
200 gal. 440 gal.
Highline Water District (2002 plan – does not include volume for non-revenue water)
178 gal. 320 gal.
Covington (2007 plan – includes volume for non-revenue water)
222 gal. 437 gal.
Water District 111 (2008 draft plan – does not include volume for non-revenue water)
220 gal. 495 gal.
City of Auburn Not Available Not Available
City of Kent (2008 – includes volume for non-revenue water)
197 gal. 358 gal.
Note: 197 gal = 358 gal / 1.8 peaking factor
The following three tables display anticipated ERUs and water demands by Pressure Zone and Customer class over a 22-year planning period. These figures are included in Chapter 7 in the system analyses, and are used to assess present and future storage, source, and pumping needs. These tables contain estimates that may be altered by a number of variables, including but not limited to economic and market conditions and variations in weather patterns. Table 3-8 shows the projected number of ERUs from 2008-2030 based on ERU calculations from 2008, while Table 3-9 shows what water demands are projected based on these projected ERUs, should the City not achieve savings through their Water Use Efficiency (WUE) program. Table 3-10 shows water demands projected if the City reaches its Water Use Efficiency Goals. The City goal is to achieve a savings of 0.5% for all public agency (government/education) irrigation use during the months of June, July, and August through the year 2014. In addition, the City also has a goal set to maintain a system leakage rate of less than 6%. Water Use Efficiency goals and conservation measures are discussed in greater detail in Chapter 5 of this Plan.
During finalization of the Plan in 2011, the City of Kent elected to verify the basis for water system demand projections by reviewing actual water demand data (billing data) for the years 2008-2010. This additional historical data is provided in Tables 3-9 and 3-10. Although water use dropped in these most recent years, 2008-2010 represent a period where water purveyors throughout the region experienced significant demand reductions. Water demand in 2010 was especially low due to higher than normal rainfall in the dry summer months and customer conservation for economic reasons Future water demands are expected to be more in line with consumption patterns established in 2005-2007 and used through the plan for system analysis and conceptual sizing of future facilities. In accordance with Growth
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
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Management Act planning requirements, demand projections are based on the City’s adopted Comprehensive Plan. This requirement, combined with analysis of recent historical demand data confirms the Plan’s original assumptions used for system evaluation over the six and 20-year planning horizons. The additional historical demand data provides the City with updated documentation and validates the Plan for the six-year planning period beginning with Plan approval in 2011.
3.7 CONSERVATION VS. NON-CONSERVATION FOR PLANNING PURPOSES
As previously discussed throughout this Chapter, the relevance of planning data, population and employment projections, and patterns of consumption provide the foundation to successful water system capital facilities and maintenance programs. While future water demands are based on one scenario for growth, behavioral changes and improved hardware solutions will likely continue to decrease the amount of average consumption over time. Water demand projections determined in this Plan are significantly lower than in previous Plans, and as such, are in line with recent production trends. Annual consumption has remained steady at, or just under, 3 billion gallons since 1996 (see Figure 3-6). This steady consumption is despite a population growth rate of approximately 36% that has occurred in the water service area during that period. This demonstrates how customer behavior, increased efficiency from altered plumbing codes, and other conservation efforts are having a lasting effect on average water consumption.
To provide a reliability factor in demand projections, the City uses projected demands without anticipated savings from the WUE program in analyses for capital improvements. This reliability factor ensures available supply if behavioral changes are not fully realized, or if development and growth exceeds expectations. Moreover, it is important to note that minimum fire flow requirements typically determine the need for distribution system improvements. The trend towards higher density uses resulting from the Growth Management Act has increased fire flow requirements in certain areas of the City. Fire flow requirements and their effect on source, storage, and pumping analyses are discussed in Chapter 7 of this Plan.
CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING
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Table 3-8: Projected ERUs by Pressure Zone and Customer Type City of Kent Water System
Customer Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
52
9 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 35 36 38 39 40 46 54 62
Government / Education 40 40 40 39 39 37 35 33
Irrigation 60 60 60 60 61 62 63 64
Multi-Family 163 163 163 163 163 163 164 164
Single Family 1,983 1,987 1,991 1,996 2,000 2,022 2,044 2,067
Sub-Total 529 Zone 2,281 2,286 2,292 2,297 2,302 2,330 2,359 2,390
35
4 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 3 4 4 5 5 9 14 22
Government / Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Irrigation 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14
Multi-Family 194 197 199 201 203 215 227 240
Single Family 218 219 219 220 220 223 225 228
Sub-Total 354 Zone 428 432 435 438 442 459 479 503
24
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 13,317 13,497 13,679 13,864 14,051 14,999 16,012 17,093
Government / Education 938 939 939 940 940 943 945 948
Irrigation 3,709 3,752 3,796 3,841 3,886 4,114 4,355 4,611
Multi-Family 5,661 5,712 5,764 5,817 5,870 6,138 6,418 6,710
Single Family 1,155 1,157 1,159 1,162 1,164 1,174 1,184 1,195
Sub-Total 240 Zone 24,780 25,058 25,339 25,623 25,911 27,368 28,914 30,556
48
5 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 276 279 281 284 287 302 317 333
Government / Education 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9
Irrigation 100 100 101 102 102 105 108 111
Multi-Family 979 991 1,004 1,017 1,030 1,095 1,164 1,238
Single Family 1,441 1,447 1,452 1,458 1,463 1,490 1,518 1,546
Sub-Total 485 Zone 2,809 2,830 2,851 2,873 2,894 3,003 3,117 3,237
59
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 1,482 1,509 1,535 1,563 1,591 1,733 1,888 2,056
Government / Education 161 159 157 156 154 146 139 132
Irrigation 773 780 786 793 799 833 868 905
Multi-Family 4,295 4,313 4,331 4,349 4,367 4,458 4,550 4,644
Single Family 4,756 4,808 4,860 4,913 4,966 5,237 5,522 5,823
Sub-Total 590 Zone 11,467 11,568 11,670 11,773 11,878 12,407 12,967 13,561
All Z
on
es
Commercial / Industrial 15,114 15,324 15,538 15,754 15,974 17,089 18,284 19,566
Government / Education 1,153 1,151 1,149 1,147 1,146 1,137 1,129 1,122
Irrigation 4,654 4,705 4,756 4,808 4,861 5,127 5,407 5,704
Multi-Family 11,292 11,376 11,461 11,547 11,633 12,068 12,523 12,997
Single Family 9,554 9,618 9,682 9,748 9,813 10,146 10,493 10,858
TOTAL 41,766 42,174 42,586 43,004 43,427 45,567 47,837 50,247
Notes: ERUs calculated based on annual average consumption for single family households for 2005-2007.
CHAPTER 3: PLANNING DATA AND DEMAND FORECASTING CITY OF KENT WATER SYSTEM PLAN
PAGE 3 - 24
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PAGE 3 - 25
Table 3-9: Projected Annual Consumption by Pressure Zone and Customer Type (MG) Without a Water Use Efficiency Program, 2005-2030
Zone Customer Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6-Yr Avg 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
52
9 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 2.03 2.05 2.23 2.21 2.77 2.32 2.27 2.53 2.62 2.69 2.78 2.86 2.95 3.05 3.14 3.24 3.32 3.84 4.44
Government / Education 2.86 3.20 2.51 3.11 4.94 3.89 3.42 2.90 2.88 2.84 2.81 2.79 2.76 2.73 2.70 2.67 2.65 2.51 2.38
Irrigation 4.36 3.28 4.27 3.15 3.87 1.53 3.41 4.28 4.31 4.31 4.33 4.34 4.36 4.37 4.39 4.40 4.43 4.50 4.58
Multi-Family 11.83 10.43 10.66 13.38 11.12 12.38 11.63 11.66 11.70 11.68 11.68 11.69 11.69 11.70 11.71 11.71 11.75 11.75 11.78
Single Family 130.30 136.34 132.26 133.52 134.78 116.98 130.70 142.20 142.90 142.82 143.13 143.45 143.76 144.07 144.39 144.71 145.41 146.60 148.21
Sub-Total 529 Zone 151.38 155.31 151.93 155.37 157.48 137.10 151.43 163.57 164.40 164.34 164.73 165.12 165.52 165.92 166.33 166.74 167.57 169.20 171.39
35
4 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 0.12 0.18 0.15 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.11 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.43 0.49 0.54 0.61 0.62 0.99 1.58
Government / Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Irrigation 0.00 1.72 0.69 0.26 0.76 0.44 0.65 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.96 1.00
Multi-Family 13.99 12.35 11.38 12.81 9.21 11.10 11.81 13.94 14.13 14.25 14.42 14.58 14.74 14.91 15.08 15.25 15.44 16.27 17.18
Single Family 13.76 15.31 14.89 14.73 14.93 12.76 14.40 15.67 15.75 15.74 15.77 15.81 15.84 15.88 15.91 15.95 16.03 16.16 16.34
Sub-Total 354 Zone 27.87 29.56 27.10 27.96 630.94 8,997.49 1,623.49 30.72 31.04 31.18 31.42 31.67 31.92 32.18 32.45 32.72 33.02 34.38 36.10
24
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 883.73 868.68 809.68 665.21 630.94 577.28 739.25 955.04 970.59 981.01 994.25 1,007.68 1,021.28 1,035.07 1,049.05 1,063.21 1,078.65 1,148.32 1,225.85
Government / Education 63.40 64.04 62.60 29.24 28.17 25.88 45.55 67.30 67.52 67.37 67.40 67.44 67.47 67.51 67.54 67.58 67.80 67.79 67.97
Irrigation 203.12 271.82 244.07 246.38 284.83 216.84 244.51 265.98 269.84 272.26 275.45 278.68 281.95 285.26 288.61 291.99 295.84 312.34 330.65
Multi-Family 362.92 371.46 373.22 422.08 387.39 375.84 382.15 405.97 410.79 413.41 417.18 420.98 424.82 428.69 432.60 436.55 441.38 460.24 481.22
Single Family 70.12 80.13 82.50 91.47 92.77 84.59 83.60 82.86 83.23 83.15 83.30 83.45 83.60 83.74 83.89 84.04 84.42 84.93 85.68
Sub-Total 240 Zone 1,583.29 1,656.13 1,572.06 1,454.38 1,424.10 1,280.43 1,495.07 1,777.15 1,801.98 1,817.20 1,837.59 1,858.23 1,879.13 1,900.28 1,921.69 1,943.37 1,968.09 2,073.62 2,191.38
48
5 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 17.09 17.20 19.42 21.27 18.52 16.19 18.28 19.78 20.03 20.18 20.38 20.59 20.80 21.01 21.22 21.43 21.69 22.72 23.86
Government / Education 1.07 0.95 0.92 0.54 1.62 1.12 1.04 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.71 0.64
Irrigation 7.10 7.12 5.63 5.43 8.64 5.26 6.53 7.17 7.23 7.25 7.29 7.33 7.37 7.41 7.45 7.49 7.55 7.74 7.96
Multi-Family 60.52 62.72 65.56 70.39 62.67 58.76 63.44 70.21 71.29 72.00 72.91 73.84 74.78 75.73 76.69 77.66 78.74 83.51 88.81
Single Family 91.61 99.36 97.29 96.71 99.07 84.03 94.68 103.38 104.05 104.14 104.53 104.92 105.30 105.69 106.08 106.48 107.15 108.83 110.84
Sub-Total 485 Zone 177.39 187.35 188.82 194.34 190.50 165.35 183.96 201.49 203.54 204.49 206.01 207.55 209.11 210.68 212.27 213.88 215.93 223.52 232.12
59
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 92.96 94.09 93.11 91.12 84.09 80.42 89.30 106.28 108.48 110.12 112.08 114.09 116.13 118.20 120.31 122.46 124.62 135.38 147.48
Government / Education 11.39 11.24 11.29 16.46 14.14 12.02 12.76 11.51 11.43 11.28 11.17 11.05 10.94 10.83 10.72 10.61 10.52 9.97 9.46
Irrigation 49.73 52.07 49.94 42.84 51.91 30.89 46.23 55.44 56.06 56.38 56.86 57.34 57.82 58.31 58.80 59.29 59.91 62.27 64.89
Multi-Family 280.80 289.66 286.87 302.69 300.59 291.90 292.08 308.06 310.18 310.62 311.90 313.20 314.49 315.80 317.11 318.42 320.56 326.31 333.08
Single Family 291.63 317.08 315.40 335.75 339.02 301.34 316.70 341.06 345.72 348.53 352.33 356.17 360.05 363.97 367.94 371.94 376.60 396.03 417.60
Sub-Total 590 Zone 726.51 764.14 756.61 788.86 789.74 716.57 757.07 822.36 831.87 836.93 844.34 851.84 859.43 867.11 874.88 882.74 892.22 929.96 972.51
All
Z
on
es
Commercial / Industrial 995.92 982.21 924.59 779.88 736.41 676.28 849.21 1,083.88 1,102.00 1,114.31 1,129.84 1,145.61 1,161.59 1,177.81 1,194.27 1,210.96 1,228.90 1,311.25 1,403.21
Government / Education 78.72 79.44 77.31 49.44 48.86 42.90 62.78 82.67 82.77 82.41 82.29 82.16 82.04 81.92 81.80 81.68 81.77 80.98 80.45
Irrigation 264.31 336.01 304.60 298.07 350.00 254.96 301.33 333.74 338.31 341.08 344.81 348.58 352.40 356.26 360.16 364.10 368.67 387.80 409.08
Multi-Family 730.06 746.61 747.69 821.34 770.98 749.98 761.11 809.83 818.10 821.95 828.09 834.28 840.53 846.83 853.18 859.59 867.88 898.08 932.08
Single Family 597.42 648.21 642.34 672.17 680.56 599.69 640.07 685.16 691.64 694.39 699.07 703.79 708.55 713.36 718.21 723.12 729.60 752.55 778.67
TOTAL 2,666 2,792 2,697 2,621 2,587 2,324 2,614 2,995 3,033 3,054 3,084 3,114 3,145 3,176 3,208 3,239 3,277 3,431 3,603
Notes: 1. Years 2005-2010 show actual data derived from City of Kent Billing Records 2. Projected water demands from 2008-2030 include an additional 6 % to account for Non-revenue water.
PAGE 3 - 27
Table 3-10: Projected Annual Consumption by Pressure Zone and Customer Type (MG) With expected savings from the Water Use Efficiency Program, 2005-2030
Zone Customer Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6-Yr Avg 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
52
9 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 2.03 2.05 2.23 2.21 2.77 2.32 2.27 2.45 2.54 2.61 2.69 2.78 2.87 2.96 3.05 3.15 3.23 3.72 4.31
Government / Education 2.86 3.20 2.51 3.11 4.94 3.89 3.42 2.82 2.80 2.76 2.73 2.70 2.68 2.65 2.62 2.59 2.57 2.43 2.31
Irrigation 4.36 3.28 4.27 3.15 3.87 1.53 3.41 4.13 4.18 4.21 4.25 4.29 4.34 4.39 4.44 4.48 4.54 4.78 5.04
Multi-Family 11.83 10.43 10.66 13.38 11.12 12.38 11.63 11.32 11.35 11.33 11.33 11.34 11.35 11.35 11.36 11.36 11.40 11.40 11.43
Single Family 130.30 136.34 132.26 133.52 134.78 116.98 130.70 137.97 138.65 138.58 138.88 139.19 139.49 139.79 140.10 140.41 141.09 142.25 143.80
Sub-Total 529 Zone 151.38 155.31 151.93 155.37 157.48 137.10 151.43 158.69 159.52 159.48 159.89 160.30 160.72 161.14 161.57 162.00 162.83 164.58 166.90
35
4 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 0.12 0.18 0.15 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.11 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.42 0.47 0.53 0.59 0.60 0.96 1.53
Government / Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Irrigation 0.00 1.72 0.69 0.26 0.76 0.44 0.65 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.96 1.01
Multi-Family 13.99 12.35 11.38 12.81 9.21 11.10 11.81 13.52 13.71 13.83 13.99 14.14 14.30 14.47 14.63 14.79 14.98 15.78 16.67
Single Family 13.76 15.31 14.89 14.73 14.93 12.76 14.40 15.20 15.28 15.27 15.31 15.34 15.37 15.41 15.44 15.48 15.55 15.68 15.85
Sub-Total 354 Zone 27.87 29.56 27.10 27.96 630.94 8,997.49 1,623.49 29.80 30.10 30.25 30.48 30.72 30.97 31.22 31.49 31.76 32.05 33.38 35.07
24
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 883.73 868.68 809.68 665.21 630.94 577.28 739.25 926.68 941.76 951.87 964.72 977.75 990.95 1,004.33 1,017.89 1,031.63 1,046.61 1,114.22 1,189.44
Government / Education 63.40 64.04 62.60 29.24 28.17 25.88 45.55 65.30 65.51 65.37 65.40 65.44 65.47 65.50 65.54 65.57 65.79 65.78 65.95
Irrigation 203.12 271.82 244.07 246.38 284.83 216.84 244.51 250.42 253.39 255.13 257.53 260.35 263.20 266.08 268.99 271.94 275.35 289.64 305.53
Multi-Family 362.92 371.46 373.22 422.08 387.39 375.84 382.15 393.91 398.59 401.13 404.79 408.48 412.20 415.96 419.75 423.58 428.27 446.57 466.93
Single Family 70.12 80.13 82.50 91.47 92.77 84.59 83.60 80.40 80.76 80.68 80.83 80.97 81.11 81.26 81.40 81.54 81.91 82.41 83.14
Sub-Total 240 Zone 1,583.29 1,656.13 1,572.06 1,454.38 1,424.10 1,280.43 1,495.07 1,716.71 1,740.02 1,754.18 1,773.27 1,792.98 1,812.93 1,833.13 1,853.57 1,874.27 1,897.93 1,998.62 2,110.99
48
5 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 17.09 17.20 19.42 21.27 18.52 16.19 18.28 19.19 19.44 19.58 19.78 19.98 20.18 20.38 20.59 20.79 21.04 22.04 23.15
Government / Education 1.07 0.95 0.92 0.54 1.62 1.12 1.04 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.69 0.62
Irrigation 7.10 7.12 5.63 5.43 8.64 5.26 6.53 6.87 6.95 7.00 7.07 7.14 7.22 7.30 7.38 7.46 7.55 7.95 8.38
Multi-Family 60.52 62.72 65.56 70.39 62.67 58.76 63.44 68.12 69.17 69.86 70.75 71.65 72.56 73.48 74.41 75.35 76.40 81.03 86.17
Single Family 91.61 99.36 97.29 96.71 99.07 84.03 94.68 100.31 100.96 101.05 101.43 101.80 102.18 102.55 102.93 103.31 103.97 105.60 107.55
Sub-Total 485 Zone 177.39 187.35 188.82 194.34 190.50 165.35 183.96 195.42 197.43 198.38 199.89 201.42 202.97 204.54 206.12 207.71 209.74 217.31 225.89
59
0 Z
on
e Commercial / Industrial 92.96 94.09 93.11 91.12 84.09 80.42 89.30 103.13 105.26 106.85 108.76 110.70 112.68 114.69 116.74 118.83 120.92 131.36 143.10
Government / Education 11.39 11.24 11.29 16.46 14.14 12.02 12.76 11.17 11.09 10.95 10.84 10.73 10.62 10.51 10.40 10.30 10.21 9.67 9.18
Irrigation 49.73 52.07 49.94 42.84 51.91 30.89 46.23 52.72 53.34 53.71 54.21 54.81 55.41 56.01 56.63 57.25 57.96 60.97 64.32
Multi-Family 280.80 289.66 286.87 302.69 300.59 291.90 292.08 298.91 300.97 301.39 302.64 303.89 305.15 306.42 307.69 308.96 311.04 316.62 323.18
Single Family 291.63 317.08 315.40 335.75 339.02 301.34 316.70 330.93 335.45 338.18 341.86 345.59 349.35 353.16 357.01 360.90 365.41 384.26 405.20
Sub-Total 590 Zone 726.51 764.14 756.61 788.86 789.74 716.57 757.07 796.85 806.11 811.07 818.31 825.71 833.21 840.79 848.47 856.23 865.55 902.89 944.98
All
Z
on
es
Commercial / Industrial 995.92 982.21 924.59 779.88 736.41 676.28 849.21 1,051.69 1,069.27 1,081.21 1,096.29 1,111.58 1,127.09 1,142.83 1,158.79 1,174.99 1,192.40 1,272.31 1,361.53
Government / Education 78.72 79.44 77.31 49.44 48.86 42.90 62.78 80.22 80.31 79.97 79.84 79.72 79.60 79.49 79.37 79.26 79.34 78.57 78.06
Irrigation 264.31 336.01 304.60 298.07 350.00 254.96 301.33 314.96 318.69 320.89 323.90 327.45 331.03 334.66 338.32 342.03 346.32 364.29 384.28
Multi-Family 730.06 746.61 747.69 821.34 770.98 749.98 761.11 785.78 793.80 797.54 803.50 809.50 815.56 821.67 827.84 834.06 842.10 871.41 904.40
Single Family 597.42 648.21 642.34 672.17 680.56 599.69 640.07 664.81 671.10 673.76 678.30 682.88 687.51 692.17 696.88 701.64 707.93 730.20 755.54
TOTAL 2,666 2,792 2,697 2,621 2,587 2,324 2,614 2,897 2,933 2,953 2,982 3,011 3,041 3,071 3,101 3,132 3,168 3,317 3,484
Notes: 1. Years 2005-2010 show actual data derived from City of Kent Billing Records 2. Projected water demands from 2008-2030 include an additional 6 % to account for Non-revenue water.