Chapter 10Chapter 10

A Strategy for Action to A Strategy for Action to Slow and Stabilize Climate Slow and Stabilize Climate

ChangeChangeSara Ferguson and Kevin Sara Ferguson and Kevin

ArmstrongArmstrong

AgendaAgenda1. The Climate Convention1. The Climate Convention

2. Stabilization of Emissions2. Stabilization of Emissions

3. The Montreal Protocol3. The Montreal Protocol

4. The Kyoto Protocol4. The Kyoto Protocol

5. Forests5. Forests

6. Reduction in the Sources of Methane6. Reduction in the Sources of Methane

7.The Choice of Stabilization Level7.The Choice of Stabilization Level

8. Realizing the Climate Convention Objective8. Realizing the Climate Convention Objective

9. Summary of the Action Required9. Summary of the Action Required

1. The Climate Convention1. The Climate Convention

o The United Nations Framework convention The United Nations Framework convention on climate change was held in Rio De on climate change was held in Rio De Janeiro June 1992.Janeiro June 1992.

o Signed by over 160 countries who promised Signed by over 160 countries who promised to slow and stabilize climate change.to slow and stabilize climate change.

o Most developed (annex 1) countries Most developed (annex 1) countries promised to return their emissions to 1990 promised to return their emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. levels by 2000.

2. Stabilization of Emissions2. Stabilization of Emissions

o by the year 2000 instead of reducing their emissions compared to 1990 the world as a whole had increased CO2 production by 10%

oU.S + 17%oChina +19%oIndia + 68%oDeveloping countries + 37%

3. The Montreal Protocol3. The Montreal Protocol

o focused on reducing ozone depleting substances primarily CFCs.

oTo force the phase out of their manufacture in developed countries by 1996. oAnd in developing countries by 2006.

o because of their long residence time in the atmosphere they will have an effect on the climate for many years.

o CFCs were replaced by HCFCs (hdyroflourocarbons) which are still greenhouse gasses but do not deplete the ozone layer.

4. The Kyoto Protocol4. The Kyoto Protocol

o Implemented to help control various greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflourocarbons perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride.

o All countries involved now quantify their emissions of greenhouse gasses.

o countries can offset their domestic emissions obligations against the absorption of emissions by sinks (forested areas) or by trading carbon credits with other countries.

The Kyoto Mechanisms

o Joint Implementation- allows industrialized countries to invest in reduction of emissions in economies in transition countries then invest those credits in meeting their own goals.

oThe clean development mechanism- allows industrialized countries to invest in reducing emissions in developing countries and use those credits to meet their own goals.

o emissions trading- countries can purchase assigned amount units of emissions from other industrialized countries.

5. Forests5. ForestsForests represent large potential carbon sinks that can reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide if only left alone.

A typical square kilometer of forest contains 12,000 tones of carbon.

Thanks to the kyoto protocol growing forests can now be a profitable venture for poor countries.

Production forests that are cut every few years could sequester much more carbon than old growth forests because absorption slows when the trees reach maturity.

The Bali Roadmap The Bali Roadmap

o Is the latest in the series of climate change talks designed to unify the world on the issue of what to do about anthropogenic climate change.

o Why do you think the U.S. and its allies has always been opposed to such climate conventions?

o This summit redefined the differentiation between rich and poor countries and what each countries level of commitment is, particularly China.

o How much do you think the richer countries should help poorer ones on the path to sustainability?

6. Reduction in the Sources of Methane6. Reduction in the Sources of Methane

Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of MethaneMethane

Methane contributes 15% to global Methane contributes 15% to global warming, which doesn’t seem like warming, which doesn’t seem like much compared to Carbon Dioxide.much compared to Carbon Dioxide.

We, as an anthropogenic cause of We, as an anthropogenic cause of global warming, would only have to global warming, would only have to reduce our emissions by a small reduce our emissions by a small percent to make an impact and percent to make an impact and stabilize.stabilize.

Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of MethaneMethane

There are 4 Main There are 4 Main Sources for Methane Sources for Methane dicussed in our book dicussed in our book

p.253:p.253:

1.1.Biomass burningBiomass burning

2.2.Landfill SitesLandfill Sites

3.3.Natural gas LeakageNatural gas Leakage

4.4.AgricultureAgriculture

Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of MethaneMethane

We could dramatically cut the emissions We could dramatically cut the emissions of Methane by recycling waste before it of Methane by recycling waste before it can make it to a landfill and improving can make it to a landfill and improving the management of natural gas. This the management of natural gas. This could ultimately be a money save to could ultimately be a money save to

the petroleum industry as well.the petroleum industry as well.

Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of MethaneMethane

– If we were to reduce our If we were to reduce our Methane emission by Methane emission by

60,000,000 tonnes pr annum 60,000,000 tonnes pr annum (would stabilize in the (would stabilize in the atmosphere) would be atmosphere) would be

equivalent to removing 1/3 a equivalent to removing 1/3 a gigaton of carbon OR about gigaton of carbon OR about 5% of the total greenhouse 5% of the total greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.gases in the atmosphere.

2,204.6 lb; equivalent to 0.9842 of an imperial ton2,204.6 lb; equivalent to 0.9842 of an imperial ton

6. Reduction in the Sources of Carbon Dioxide6. Reduction in the Sources of Carbon Dioxide

Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide

According to all of the SRES scenarios, According to all of the SRES scenarios, CO2 will continue to rise because of its CO2 will continue to rise because of its

lifespan in the atmosphere is longer lifespan in the atmosphere is longer and what we already have in the and what we already have in the

atmosphere will remain for up to 200 atmosphere will remain for up to 200 years.years.

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Reduction in the Sources of Reduction in the Sources of Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide

According to all of the SRES scenarios, According to all of the SRES scenarios, CO2 will continue to rise because of its CO2 will continue to rise because of its

lifespan in the atmosphere is longer and lifespan in the atmosphere is longer and what we already have in the atmosphere what we already have in the atmosphere will remain for up to 200 years. In order will remain for up to 200 years. In order to eventually make concentrations lower to eventually make concentrations lower we would have to lower our emissions to we would have to lower our emissions to a fraction of today’s rate. This assumes a fraction of today’s rate. This assumes

that the CO2 sinks remain the same.that the CO2 sinks remain the same.

7.The Choice of Stabilization Level7.The Choice of Stabilization Level

The Choice of Stabilization The Choice of Stabilization LevelLevel

In order to decide on the stabilization In order to decide on the stabilization levels, we have to set limits and levels, we have to set limits and deadlines. Unfortunately, there is not a deadlines. Unfortunately, there is not a consensus on timescales this should consensus on timescales this should be achieved in.be achieved in.

However, we can conclude that there However, we can conclude that there are problems we should obviously be are problems we should obviously be taking the steps to solve, such as the taking the steps to solve, such as the amount of CO2 we emit.amount of CO2 we emit.

The Choice of Stabilization The Choice of Stabilization LevelLevel

We have learned how the amount and We have learned how the amount and lifetime of CO2 is what makes it so lifetime of CO2 is what makes it so dangerous.dangerous.

To slow this down, we would have to To slow this down, we would have to drastically drastically cut our emissions. In order cut our emissions. In order to stabilize our CO2 level, we would to stabilize our CO2 level, we would have to alter the amount of energy have to alter the amount of energy available, ultimately resulting in the available, ultimately resulting in the crippling in the economy.crippling in the economy.

The Choice of Stabilization The Choice of Stabilization LevelLevel

How do we compare the costs, How do we compare the costs, financially, to change our CO2 habits to financially, to change our CO2 habits to the cost of the repercussions if we don’t?the cost of the repercussions if we don’t?

How about when you consider that some How about when you consider that some may believe that we are past the tipping may believe that we are past the tipping point and ecosystems are already going point and ecosystems are already going to become extinct? How do you convince to become extinct? How do you convince we need to spend money to change our we need to spend money to change our impact?impact?

The Choice of Stabilization The Choice of Stabilization LevelLevel

The book states that when all the The book states that when all the factors is considered, our ideal target factors is considered, our ideal target range for stabilization of CO2 should range for stabilization of CO2 should be between 400-550 ppmbe between 400-550 ppm

CO2 emission per capita per year per country in 2004

Source: Wikipedia.com

8. Realizing the Climate Convention Objective8. Realizing the Climate Convention Objective

Realizing the Climate Realizing the Climate Convention ObjectiveConvention Objective

The Climate Convention uses 4 main The Climate Convention uses 4 main principles in determining its objectives:principles in determining its objectives:

1.1. The Principle of Sustainable DevelopmentThe Principle of Sustainable Development

2.2. Precautionary PrinciplePrecautionary Principle

3.3. The Polluter-Pays PrincipleThe Polluter-Pays Principle

4.4. The Principle of EquityThe Principle of Equity

Realizing the Climate Realizing the Climate Convention ObjectiveConvention Objective

The main obstacle is applying these The main obstacle is applying these main obstacles to all countries, main obstacles to all countries, developed and not.developed and not.– We must consider that there are We must consider that there are

developing countries that need to be able developing countries that need to be able to emit COto emit CO22

– The Global Commons Institute has come The Global Commons Institute has come up with the ‘Contraction Convergence up with the ‘Contraction Convergence Theory’ to solve this problem.Theory’ to solve this problem.

Source: www.cru.uea.ac.uk Climate Research Unit in Norwich

Realizing the Climate Realizing the Climate Convention ObjectiveConvention Objective

Contraction and Convergence TheoryContraction and Convergence Theory

-The idea addresses all the 4 Principles-The idea addresses all the 4 Principles

It encourages international equity where It encourages international equity where the biggest polluters pay the most.the biggest polluters pay the most.

Basically, the idea is to envelope Basically, the idea is to envelope emissions until 2030emissions until 2030

Possible Solutions?Possible Solutions?

What is a What is a plan that we plan that we can use to can use to cap our cap our emissions by emissions by a certain a certain time, without time, without compromisincompromising the growth g the growth of developing of developing countries?countries?

Source: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/

9. Summary of the Action Required9. Summary of the Action Required

Summary of the Action Summary of the Action RequiredRequired

Revise Montreal Protocol to strengthen Revise Montreal Protocol to strengthen CFCs and CFC substitutesCFCs and CFC substitutes

Reduction in deforestationReduction in deforestation Increase in afforestationIncrease in afforestation Easy ways to reduce methaneEasy ways to reduce methane Dramatic energy conservationDramatic energy conservation Increase implementation of renewable Increase implementation of renewable

energies such as wind, solar, hydro… etc.energies such as wind, solar, hydro… etc.