Chapter 10Demographics & School

Finance

“Improving student learning and ensuring that all children receive an adequate education in the 21st century will be complicated by changing demographics of the students to be educated, as well as of the adults who must pay for education through taxes.” - ………… Janet S. Hansen, 2001.

Demographics & Finance

Demographics describe changes in population.

Demographics & Finance, cont.

Demographics significantly impact the costs of providing public education.

Changes in Our Understanding of

DemographicsUntil 15 or 20 years ago, “demographics” only involved the number of students enrolling each fall and if they were coming from different neighborhoods than last year.

For the most part, we were not concerned with changing racial & ethnic demographics.

Today’s Schools Have More & More Diverse Students

• These increasing racial, ethnic, and economic groups have a large impact on where and how education dollars should be spent

• Equity and adequacy issues face schools with changing demographics

Demographic Changes Affect Teaching & Learning

• Without proper planning and budgeting, students’ issues of language, values, traditions, & behaviors will likely prevent otherwise effective teachers from understanding, developing strong relationships with, & successfully teaching students from backgrounds different than their own

Demographics Impact Student Achievement

School leaders must be aware of the trends in demographics if schools are to teach all students to high levels of learning.

This Chapter Will • Analyze state and local demographic shifts in

student population and examine the associated financial impact on public schools

• Make some predictions as to what the future demographics will look like in your locality

• Examine some demographic issues involved in teacher recruitment, selection, & professional education to meet the students’ needs in schools

Understanding Diverse Students’ Learning Needs

• When the school district’s population changes, families from other cultures or economic backgrounds move into the neighborhood and enroll their children in school

• Middle class teachers’ beliefs and behaviors typically do not prepare them to understand, motivate, or instruct students from other cultures

U.S. Schools Operate on Middle Class Norms & Values

• For example, many believe that “wealthy people are smarter”

• Teachers believing this myth will not have sufficiently high expectations for students from poverty backgrounds and will be less likely to teach these students to high achievement levels

Students Bring Own “Rules”

• Students from poverty backgrounds bring their own “hidden rules” into the school that make classroom management and a learning focus difficult for teachers who do not understand these behaviors

Students Bring Own “Rules”, cont.

• Students from poverty homes are likely to believe that security comes from relationships rather than school or work

• They are used to higher noise levels & receiving key information nonverbally

Teacher & Student Classroom Learning“Comfort Levels” Differ

Teachers• Desks in straight rows • Teachers lecturing• Only one speaker

at a time• Teachers giving

information

Students• Relationships

matter most• Noise is good• Non-verbal tells

REAL story• Other students

are entertaining

Teacher – Student Disconnects & Achievement

• The results for student achievement are likely to be discouragingly self-fulfilling

• Poor student achievement among students in the new demographic would greatly increase community school distrust and would eventually require significant educator time and resources to resolve

Teacher Attitudes & Student Achievement

• Unless teachers recognize their personal biases & ignorance about students from different backgrounds --and appropriately adjust their views and instructional practices -- students & families will perceive teacher attitudes as disrespectful … or worse

• Results for student achievement are likely to be discouragingly self-fulfilling

Student Achievement & Community Trust

• Poor student achievement among students in the new demographic would greatly increase community school distrust and would eventually require significant educator time and resources to resolve

Suburban School District A10 Years Ago• Students:

– 98% White, affluent

– 5% Free or Reduced Price Lunches

• Teachers:– Mirrored students

• Local Economy:– Began outsourcing

Today• Students:

– 47% White; 27% Hispanic– 23% Black– 93% Free/Reduced Lunches– 30% Second Language

Learners

• Teachers:– Still mostly White, middle

class

• Local Economy: Loss of well-paying jobs; loss of fiscal resources

What is Financial Impact of Educating These Students?

10 Years Ago• Students:

– 98% White, affluent

– 5% Free or Reduced Price Lunches

• Teachers:– Mirrored students

• Local Economy:– Began outsourcing

Today• Students:

– 47% White; 27% Hispanic– 23% Black– 93% Free/Reduced Lunches– 30% Second Language

Learners

• Teachers:– Still mostly White, middle

class

• Local Economy: Loss of well-paying jobs; loss of fiscal resources

Planning for Schooling 10 Years Later Requires…

• Revised curriculum • Professional development for staff• Equipment & facility needs• Recruited a more diverse staff• Programs & practices to decrease the

achievement gap… if the schools are to remain responsive to their community’s needs

Demographics Impact School Finance

• School leaders must be aware of local demographic trends if schools are to teach all students to high levels in a public accountability environment

• Keeping pace with changing demographics requires funding at higher levels than before

Poverty & School Leadership

• Educational leaders in high poverty areas must plan to meet these challenges with highly qualified teachers and meaningful programs that address the real at-risk behaviors facing students, while building community support for the direction being taken

Percentage Change in Public K-12 Enrollment by State,Fall, 1996 – Fall, 2001

States & Localities Must Plan forIncreases, Decreases, &

Cultural/Ethnic Differences in Student Populations…& Their Costs

Enrollment Trends, 1980-2010, in Thousands

PublicSchools

1980 2000 2010

K – 12 40,877

47,223

47,561

K – 8 27,647

33,709

33,244

9 – 12 13,231

13,514

14,317

Expected Changes in Student Populations

• The racial/ethnic backgrounds of the school-aged population have changed

• While white, non-Hispanic persons will still be the majority, this demographic is projected to decrease as a part of the overall population by 30%age points

Expected Changes in Student Populations

• The Black non-Hispanic population is predicted to maintain consistently around 14% of the population

• The Hispanic group has increased and is projected to almost double between 2000 and 2040 to 28% of the population

• The Asian/Pacific Islander/Other group continues to rise by 1%age point per

decade

Special Needs Students inNew Demographics

• Medically fragile students

• Second language learners

• Students from other countries bring still more learning (and occasionally physical) needs into the classroom

Demographics Can Help Us Plan for Potential Costs

• The Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, indicating 2000 data, can help us predict what the kindergarten class of 2005 might be like*

• For example, it is known that poverty increases risk of low birth weight, & low birth weight is a good predictor of a child having learning disabilities in school…with increased enrollment of poverty students, we can expect increased special education services and related costs

Racial/Ethnic Background of School-Age Population

1970 2000 2040White (non Hispanic)

79% 65% 49%Black (non Hispanic) 14% 15% 14%Asian/Pacific Isl. 1% 5% 9%Hispanic 6% 15% 28%

15 Risk Factors & Young Children’s Success in School

• Poverty• Infant & child mortality • Low birth weight • Single parents • Teen mothers• Mothers using alcohol,

tobacco, or drugs• Transience• Child abuse & neglect • Lack of quality day care

• Low wage jobs• Unemployed parents• Lack of access to health

and medical care• Low parent education• Poor nutrition • Lack of contact with

English as the primary language

Poverty is a Risk Factor• Poverty impacts & enlarges all other risk factors • Fully 22% of America’s children live in poverty • America has the highest percentage of children

in poverty of any of the 28 advanced industrial democratic countries

• The U.S. also has the largest gap between rich and poor children

• Poorest children experience difficulty in general and specifically in school

Poverty Statistics

• 1/3 of Black & Hispanic children live in poverty

• Only 10% of White children are raised in poverty

• 14 million school-aged children in poverty in 2000: – 9 million were White children – 4 million were Black children– 4 million were Hispanic children (included above)

Predicting School Population from Local Poverty Rates

• The poorest families (those with income less than $10,000 per year) have yearly birth rates of 73 per 1,000 females

• Families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year have yearly birth rates of 50 per 1,000 females

• If poverty rates are increasing in a school district or a state, it may be safe to predict greater enrollment growth than where income is higher

Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local Poverty

• Localities with increasing rates of children qualifying for free and reduced lunch programs need to plan for early intervention programs dealing with resultant school issues from a prevention perspective instead of a reactionary perspective

Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local Poverty, cont.

• If poverty rates are increasing in a school district or a state, it may be safe to predict greater enrollment growth than where income is higher

• It is a wise fiscal investment to adequately meet poor children’s educational needs as education appears to be the only intervention that breaks the poverty cycle

School Finance Planning to Teach Children of Poverty:

• Early intervention programs address school issues from a prevention perspective, & include:

• Preschool programs • Expanded Head Start

programs • Parent education programs • Quality day care programs• Professional development

programs for educators to better meet students’ learning needs

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs

• America has the highest known migration level of any first world country

• 43 million Americans move each year

• 14% stay within the same county, 4% within the same state, but to a different county, and 4% to a different state

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,

cont.• Low-income children

move more frequently than their higher income counterparts

• They lose continuity of instruction & learning along with having to adjust to a new home, friends, teachers

Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,

cont.• Losing continuity of

instruction, learning, & relationships often reduces students’ achievement

• Frequent moves contribute to the “Achievement Gap”

Transience Varies State to State

• Approximately 80% of those who live in Pennsylvania were born there

• Florida, on the other hand, has a relatively high transience rate: only 30% of the residents were born in the state

Transience Varies State to State

• Teachers in Pennsylvania and Florida may start and end the year with 25 students

• The Florida teacher, however, unlike the Pennsylvania teacher, may have 20 different students from the 25 who started the year

Transience is a Risk Factor• Educational leaders need

to plan programs that ease the educational disadvantages of transience for students & provide professional development for those who deal with these students

•

Transience Increases Risk for School Problems

• Increases family stress and conflict

• Increases feelings of alienation, loss

• Linked to psychiatric disorders & behavior problems for preschool children

• Increase probability of needing special education in schools

Areas with transience issues, include:

• Military bases & locales • High poverty areas• Agricultural areas with

migrant workersShould be aware of the related emotional problems & implement programs for these children & families.

Illegal Immigrants & School Finance

• It is estimated that the U.S. has approximately 5 million illegal immigrants

• Almost sixty five percent of these individuals live in one of three states – California (2,000,000), Texas (700,000), and New York (540,000)

• Estimate that one in five illegal immigrants is school-aged, means more than 1 million such children attending U.S. schools

Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont.

• In the early to mid-1970’s Texas was spending millions of state dollars each year educating children of illegal immigrants • The legislators thought that since these students

were in the country illegally, Texas should not have to spend its tax dollars educating them

• In May 1975, the Texas legislature revised its laws to withhold state education funds to those school districts for children who were not legally admitted into the United States

Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont.

• The United States Supreme Court in Plyler v. Doe, 1982, determined that undocumented children of alien parents

could not be denied a public education• The court reasoned that the Fourteenth

Amendment provides that “No State shall…deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws

Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont.

• The financial impact on Texas was enormous

• There may have been 50,000 children of illegal immigrants in the Texas public schools

• The state share per pupil in 1975 may have been $2,000 …with the total yearly spending over $100,000,000

Second Language Learners& School Finance

• The fastest growing racial/ethnic group in the US is Hispanic

• The lack of contact with English as the primary language is a risk factor in school

1972

2000

2010

2030

2040

6% 15

%20%

25%

28%

% of Hispanic School-Aged Children

Second Language Learners& School Finance, cont.

• In 2005, if 15% of new students enrolling in U.S. public schools is Hispanic, 4,791,200 children fall into this category

• If 10 % of these children are ESOL (needing English language instruction) and we use the Florida model of pupil weighting at 1.298, the yearly additional cost to educate these children is $10,742,598,662

According to the U.S. Census Bureau …

• For infants born to black mothers, the % of low birth weight babies is 13% – almost double that of the average

• We may predict, therefore, that black children may be at greater risk of being identified for special education services than other children

According to the U.S. Census Bureau …, cont.

• If your state or locality is experiencing higher enrollment of black students, one might expect a larger enrollment in special education students

Infant & Child Mortality Rates & School Finance

• The United States has a rather surprisingly high rate of infant mortality

• In the United States in 1998, there were 681 deaths per 100,000 babies under the age of one

• The infant mortality rate for white babies in the first year of life is 571 per 100,000 babies while the rate for black babies is 1,363 per 100,000

Infant & Child Mortality Rates & School Finance, cont.

• Infant mortality can lead to children’s & parents’ feelings of alienation

• This condition has been linked to psychiatric disorders & behavior problems for preschool children

• These children have a high probability of needing special education programs later as they enter public schools – especially in LD and DD (developmental delay) programs

Rate of Single Parenthood & School Finance

• In the United States, about 1/3 of all births were to unmarried parents

• This is a risk factor is associated with poverty• Of births to unwed mothers, 26% were white,

68% were black, 42% were Hispanic, 58% Native American, and 5% Asian

• For every ethnic/racial group a child raised by a single mother is 2 to 3 times as likely to be raised in poverty than a child raised in a two-parent home

Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance

• Research findings indicate that for each additional hour of watching TV per day, attention problems increase by approximately 10%

• Toddlers who watched 8 hours of TV per day would have an 80% increased risk of attention problems than a child who watched no TV

•

Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance, cont.

• ADHD is a qualifying condition for special education services

• The implications for increased learning problems – and related practices to address them – increases the cost of educating these students

Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance, cont.

• School districts with increasing percentages of children eligible to receive free or reduced lunch need to understand other ramifications of this changing demographic

• Students in the poorest 20% of families watched TV 18 hours per week rather than the 11 hours per week in the top income group

• Lack of quality day care may be a significant contributor to time in front of TV

Grandparents Raising their Grandchildren

• 4 million school-aged children live with their grandparent/s

• Grandparent/s have sole custody of approximately 1 million school-aged children

Factors include:• Parents in jail or

drug rehabilitation centers

• Parents who for one reason or another are simply incapable of caring for their own children

Grandparents Raising Grandchildren & School Finance

• Little is known about the levels of support for school funding issues or the voting records for these grandparents

• In school districts where this phenomenon occurs, school leaders need to provide support mechanisms for these individuals and provide the professional development for staff members who interact with them

Child Abuse & Neglect &School Finance

• In 2002, an estimated 2.6 million referrals were made to local or state Child Protective Services (CPS) for investigation

• Involved nearly 4.5 million children • Approximately 896,000 children found to be

victims of child abuse or neglect

Increased Cost of Educating Emotionally Disturbed Students • Using the Florida model, the cost for educating a

child diagnosed as socially maladjusted costs 2.3 times the base cost per student

• If only 1/10 of the 418,600 children referred are eventually diagnosed with emotional problems – the 41,860 students at 2.3 times the average pupil expenditure in 2002 of $7,524

• Yearly cost to society through school costs alone would be $724,395,672

Teacher Shortage& School Finance

• The U.S. Department of Education estimates that schools will have to replace more than 2 million teachers over the next ten years, an average of 200,000 new teachers, annually

• Teacher shortages are most pervasive in math, science, special education, & bilingual and ESL classes

Cumulative % of Teachers Leaving Profession Each Year

14

24.4

32.6

40.4

46.2

05

101520253035404550

After 1Year

After 2Years

After 3Years

After 4Years

After 5Years

Many Reasons for Teacher Shortages

• Approximately half of all beginning teachers leave the profession within their first five years

• Almost 16 percent of beginning teachers leave before the end of their first school year

Leavers cite:• Job dissatisfaction• Desire for career

outside education• Working conditions• Low salary

considering amount of own education & job responsibilities

High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance

• Teachers with many years of experience and advanced degrees will be replaced with new, inexperienced teachers

• Replacing 200,000 experienced teachers with 100,000 experienced & 100,000 inexperienced (lower salaried) teachers could save $1 billion each year that could be redirected to improving teacher quality

High Teacher TurnoverCosts Taxpayers

• Business models cost out employee turnover costs to include 25% of the employee’s salary and benefits

• Organizational costs of termination, recruitment, hiring substitutes, and new training costs, estimates are that turnover costs U.S. public education approximately $2.1 billion each year

Finance Redirection to Increase Teacher Quality

If the $1 billion annual savings were combined with a 50% reduction of the $2.1 billion organizational costs…

• More than $2 billion each year could be redirected to teacher salary and benefits enhancements to attract & retain high quality teachers

High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance

• In education, induction, mentoring, and training costs are concentrated in the early years of employment

• Estimates say that a teacher who quits after one year cost the school district $13,500 in lost recruitment and training

• The cost jumps to $50,000 for a teacher who quits after three years

Alternatively Certified Teachers Have High Attrition

• 80,000 teachers entered the teaching profession in the last 10 years through non-traditional, teacher prep programs

• One study found that 60 % of those who enter teaching through “short-cut”programs leave teaching in the first 3 years – as opposed to the 30% who leave in the same time frame from traditional programs and the 10 to 15% who leave from five-year teacher preparation programs

Induction Programs for Teachers Reduce Later Costs

• Since faculty stability has been shown to enhance school improvement & attrition rates for new teachers participating

in induction programs is 15% (compared to 26% for those who had no induction support), it makes financial common sense for the

educational leader to research quality induction programs to minimize personnel costs

Low Salary Hurts Teaching as Career

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reported:

• 28% of former public school teachers &• 33% of private school teachers

left the classroom and went to work for private businesses because of better salary or commission.

Quality Teachers Can Increase

Student Achievement• ETS study examined

math and science scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), also known as the Nation’s Report Card

• When teachers had strong content knowledge, had learned to work with students from other cultures, and learned to work with special needs students, their students tested more than a full grade level above their peers

Teacher Shortage HurtsUrban, Low Income Schools

• Much research indicates that low income and urban schools experience higher degrees of teacher turnover and greater teacher shortages than other types of schools

• As a result, urban and low-income students are more likely to have under-prepared and non-certified teachers than any other group of students

Teacher Quality Increases Student Achievement

• Over time, students placed with high quality teachers make significantly higher achievement gains

• Grade 3 students scoring at approximately the same level, after 3 consecutive years with highly effective teachers, score 35 %ile points higher in reading scores and 49%ile points higher in math scores than do peers with less effective teachers

• Students with less effective teachers may even lose ground, in terms of achievement scores

Teacher Quality Could Reducethe “Achievement Gap”, but…

• Low income and minority students are nearly twice as likely to assigned to low quality teachers than their more affluent, white counterparts

• Other research indicates that poor black students are less likely to have a well-qualified teacher than poor white students, especially at the secondary level

Administrator Demographics: Quality Principal Shortage

• There is a growing shortage of qualified people willing to take on the principals’ job

• The “graying” of school administrators linked with the increased job complexity, rising standards, & greater accountability demands have led to increased numbers of school leadership vacancies nationwide

• Approximately 40% of the country’s current principals will retire by 2008

Administrator Demographics: Principal Shortage

• In a 2001 Public Agenda survey, superintendents in large, urban districts are somewhat more likely to experience an insufficient supply of principal applicants – 61% say they are experiencing at least a somewhat serious shortage of principals.

Administrator Demographics: Principal Shortage, cont.

• The National Association of Elementary School Principals (NAESP) estimates that approximately 40% of the country’s 93,200 current principals will retire by 2008

• The recruitment and retention of qualified principals has become one of the greatest challenges facing school systems across the U.S

Principal Recruitment & Retention Are Costly

• Approximately 22% of all current principals could be eligible to retire

• Blacks and Hispanics appear to be under- represented in the principal population

• Attracting and retaining quality principals can be an expensive proposition for school districts with competition for high quality, underrepresented racial/ethnic groups

Average Principals’ Salaries Racial/Ethnic Groups

Racial/Ethnic Group

Total Years Experience

Average Annual Salary

White 23 $66,198

Black 23.1 $68,044

Hispanic 21.8 $68,835

Asian/Pacific 22.7 $56,986Alaska

Native/American Indian

20.9 $71,396

Issues Contributing toPrincipal Shortage

• The varied and enormous demands on school leaders’ time and energies force many to make serious compromises in their personal and family lives

• Issues of community respect, prestige, and salary also make the careers less attractive to promising quality candidates.

• In some cases, principals earn less per diem than senior teachers

Principal Quality is Also a Major Concern

• Many superintendents acknowledge difficulties in finding effective, well-qualified principal applicants

• Just over half (52%) say they are “happy” with the job their current principals are doing, overall

• Only 41% of large urban district superintendents say they are “happy” with their current principals’ performance

Principal Quality Lacking

Barely one in three superintendents say they are “happy” with their district’s principals when it comes to:

• Recruiting talented teachers (36%)

• Knowing how to make tough decisions (35%)

• Delegating responsibility and authority (34%)

• Involving teachers in decisions (33%)

• Using money effectively (32%)

Principal Quality & Student Achievement

• Owings and Kaplan’s (2004) study finds that elementary principals rated highly by supervisors using professional standards have significantly higher achieving students than principals rated lower

• Middle and high school principals’ ratings were in the expected direction although not statistically significant

Principal Quality & School Finance

Knowing how to use precious (and limited) school resources effectively to maximize student learning and develop and maintain a quality teaching staff, quality principals makes a measurable difference in the value taxpayers get for supporting schools.

Ideas to Improve Principal Quality, Reduce Shortage

• Improving school administrators’ pay and prestige

• Improving the quality of principals’ professional development

• Making it much easier for principals to remove ineffective teachers

• Creating initiatives that encourage teachers to consider school leadership careers

Principal Turnover Impacts School Finance

• The average salary for school administrators in the 1999-2000 school year (latest data available) was $66,504

• Approximately 22% of all principals could be eligible to retire. Less experienced/expensive principals would probably replace them

• If 10% of the nation’s 93,200 principals retire each year at a savings of $15,000 per year per principal, the national savings would be almost $140 million

• This personnel cost savings, as with teachers, could be redirected to administrator salary and benefits enhancements to attract and retain high quality principals in the schools

School Finance Issues &Principals’ Daily Needs

• Budgets have not kept pace with new spending demands

• Most superintendents (66%) and principals (53%) say insufficient funding is a more pressing problem for them than lack of parental involvement, ineffective administrators, or poor teacher quality

• Not only have responsibilities increased but also more mandates have been assigned to school leaders without the corresponding funds to enact them