Chanti van der Kust Kenya feel the climate change? Coffee ......Literature & WMS servers Davis, A....
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Literature & WMS servers Davis, A. P., Gole, T. W., Baena, S., & Moat, J. (2012). The impact of climate change on indigenous arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities. PLoS One, 7(11), e47981. Jaramillo, J., Muchugu, E., Vega, F. E., Davis, A., Borgemeister, C., & Chabi-Olaye, A. (2011). Some like it hot: the inTluence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa. PLoS One, 6(9), e24528. DaMatta, F. M., & Ramalho, J. D. C. (2006). Impacts of drought and temperature stress on coffee physiology and production: a review. Brazilian Journal of Plant Physiology, 18(1), 55-8 Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. (2015) Climatic Change: A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee 129: 89. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x Bagal, M. (2013) Study on the potential of marketing of Kenyan Coffee as Geographical Indication. European Comission.1. Kenya feel the climate change? Coffee plantations in Kenya Rosa van Schaick & Chanti van der Kust Course Digital Earth 1 Year 2017 Results The IPCC predicted that with climate change, temperatures will rise and annual precipitation will increase. Because of the vulnerability of coffee plants towards climate variations, temperature and precipitation change were examined over two different periods of time, the present-day and prediction of 2050 (Tigure 1). Also, the maps display the current coffee plantations of Kenya in order to compare suitability. The Tirst important aspect to consider is the change in precipitation. For coffee beans to grow optimally annual precipitation should be between 1500-2500 mm. Coffee plants are dependent on the timing of rainfall, more frequent of extensive droughts and rainfall may upset the balance and impede the growing process of coffee plants (DaMatta & Ramalho, 2006). As can be seen in Tigure 1, the predicted change in precipitation is minimal with a 17mm at most, meaning that precipitation in Kenya, will most likely not inTluence the growth of coffee plants. The second aspect to examine is temperature. The most suitable temperature for coffee plants to grow in is 18-21°C, however temperatures reaching up to 24°C are acceptable. When coffee plants come in contact with higher or lower temperatures than needed, the respiration and photosynthesis processes will be affected, resulting in a lower storage capacity and thus may reduce the yield capacity of the plantation (DaMatta et al., 2006). As can be seen in Tigure 1a, most coffee plantations are in areas with an average temperature of 21-25°C, this means that a slight increase in temperature may affect the plants. The predicted maximum increase of temperature will be 3°C by 2050, this means that some coffee plantations will be challenged by higher temperatures. The increase in temperature will most likely affect the present-day suitable areas for coffee cultivation. In order to review the effect of climate change on the suitability of the Kenyan coffee plantations, Tigure 2 has been made. The Tigure shows the suitable areas for coffee cultivation in 2050, considering climate change. As the annual precipitation rose only minimal, data from the present-day have been used. However, the increase in temperature does affect the suitable areas. The area displaying temperature shows the area where coffee can be cultivated in 2050. Currently, the temperatures do not reach above 20°C and within 50 years, they will not exceed the 24°C. The map shows that there is only 2,5 coffee plantation within the suitable area, meaning that climate change will reduce the coffee yield of Kenya remarkably. Introduction Everyday, more than 2,25 billion cups of coffee are drunk worldwide, making coffee the second- most valuable export commodity. Arabica and Robusta coffee are the two main coffee plant species cultivated, with Arabica producing around 70% of the total coffee production (Davis et al., 2012). The cultivation of coffee is highly climate-dependent making it susceptible to any variation. Due to this, coffee production is only possible in some regions of the world, namely Central/South America, East Africa and regions in South-East Asia. Arabica coffee grows optimally between 18-21°C, however temperatures may rise up to 24°C. Higher and lower temperatures exert stress on the plants, making it difTicult to grow and develop appropriately (Davis et al., 2012). Besides temperatures, altitude and precipitation also determine the suitable growing areas for coffee. Altitude is optimal between approximately 1000-2000 meter with a mean precipitation between 1500-2500 mm per year. The coffee industry may face serious challenges with the increase in climate change due to the climate-dependency of the species. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that the average global temperatures may rise between 1.8-4°C. This means that temperatures may exceed the 24°C, resulting in a less sustainable coffee industry (Davis et al., 2012). The change in climate may exert stress on the coffee plants, most likely resulting in lower yields and plant diseases (Jaramillo et al., 2011). Aim The aim of this research was to examine the possible climate change by 2050 and its effect on the suitable areas for coffee production by answering the following question: “What are the effects of climate change on coffee production by 2050?” In order to examine the effects, a case study of Kenya was used to model the possible change in climate and in suitable production areas. Method In order to appoint suitable coffee production areas in Kenya regarding climate change, different variables had to be taken into consideration, namely temperature, precipitation and altitude. Therefore, different maps have been made, containing these variables of both the current and future situation, using Geographic Information Systems. Before being able to examine suitability of coffee plantations, its locations have to be displayed. This was done by creating a shapeTile with coffee plantations in Kenya, based on a picture of the distribution of coffee farms. These plantations are used in this research as the most suitable places to cultivate coffee at the present time. To obtain information about the spatial dispersion of temperature and precipitation in Kenya, a temperature and precipitation map of Africa was obtained and limited to the information of Kenya (Tigure 1a). The map showing the current temperatures in Kenya is a 30-year average of the surface temperatures, published in Esri’s ArcAtlas. The map of precipitation was altered to show the average precipitation in mm. The two maps showing the situation in 2050 (Tigure 1b) have been obtained from the same geodatabase containing different terrestrial topics. Both the predicted precipitation change (in mm) and temperature change (in °C) were based on a median ensemble analysis. Additionally, an elevation map of Kenya has been used. Although, it did not contain exact numbers, an estimation of the suitable altitude for coffee was possible. The combination of the criteria for growing coffee, the temperature and precipitation at present and the change of temperature and precipitation in 2050, constructed the last map (Tigure 2). This map shows the suitable places for growing coffee after climate change has taken place. Figure 1a/1b. Figure 2. Conclusion With the use of temperature and precipitation predictions for Kenya in 2050, an assessment can be made for the opportunities of coffee production. The current plantations will be negatively affected by climate change, foremost due to a rise in temperature. This makes three complete plantations unable to cultivate on. If Kenya desires to continue coffee production after 2050, new plantations have to be constructed in the suitable coffee areas. Discussion There are two coffee plant varieties which account for most of the coffee produced worldwide: Arabica and robusta. This research has mainly focused on the Tirst one, because this species accounts for more than 90% of the country’s production (Bagal, 2013). However, the robusta shrub can grow at lower altitudes than Arabica (sealevel-914m). Additionally, it is much more tolerant to warm conditions: it can endure temperatures between 18°-36°C. The robusta coffee plant also requires slightly more rainfall (2200-3000 mm/yr) (Bunn et al., 2015). The hypothesis rests on the notion that the arabica is heat sensitive and would suffer at higher temperatures. In contrast, robusta can tolerate higher temperatures and could thus replace the arabica. Further research on the robusta coffee shrub with respect to the changing climate in Kenya is needed to come to further conclusions. WMS-servers http://services1.arcgis.com/xFy0NvdBBPjHy9cp/ arcgis /rest/services/ Africa_Precipitation / FeatureServer http:// services.arcgis.com /BG6nSlhZSAWtExvp/ arcgis /rest/services/30yrAvgTerrestrialSurfaceTemp/ FeatureServer http://cumulus-web-adapter-1827610810.us-west-1.elb.amazonaws.com/ arcgis /rest/services/Atlas/ TerrestrialMaps / MapServer http:// tiles.arcgis.com / tiles /xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/ arcgis /rest/services http:// tiles.arcgis.com / tiles /xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/ arcgis /rest/services/ Kenya_Elevation / MapServer /0
Transcript of Chanti van der Kust Kenya feel the climate change? Coffee ......Literature & WMS servers Davis, A....
Literature&WMSserversDavis,A.P.,Gole,T.W.,Baena,S.,&Moat,J.(2012).Theimpactofclimatechangeonindigenousarabicacoffee(Coffeaarabica):predictingfuturetrendsandidentifyingpriorities.PLoSOne,7(11),e47981.Jaramillo,J.,Muchugu,E.,Vega,F.E.,Davis,A.,Borgemeister,C.,&Chabi-Olaye,A.(2011).Somelikeithot:theinTluenceandimplicationsofclimatechangeoncoffeeberryborer(Hypothenemushampei)andcoffeeproductioninEastAfrica.PLoSOne,6(9),e24528.DaMatta,F.M.,&Ramalho,J.D.C.(2006).Impactsofdroughtandtemperaturestressoncoffeephysiologyandproduction:areview.BrazilianJournalofPlantPhysiology,18(1),55-8Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. (2015) Climatic Change: A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee 129: 89. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x Bagal, M. (2013) Study on the potential of marketing of Kenyan Coffee as Geographical Indication. European Comission.1.
Kenyafeeltheclimatechange?CoffeeplantationsinKenya
RosavanSchaick&ChantivanderKustCourseDigitalEarth1Year2017
ResultsTheIPCCpredictedthatwithclimatechange,temperatureswillriseandannualprecipitationwillincrease.Becauseofthevulnerabilityofcoffeeplantstowardsclimatevariations,temperatureandprecipitationchangewereexaminedovertwodifferentperiodsoftime,thepresent-dayandpredictionof2050(Tigure1).Also,themapsdisplaythecurrentcoffeeplantationsofKenyainordertocomparesuitability.TheTirstimportantaspecttoconsideristhechangeinprecipitation.Forcoffeebeanstogrowoptimallyannualprecipitationshouldbebetween1500-2500mm.Coffeeplantsaredependentonthetimingofrainfall,morefrequentofextensivedroughtsandrainfallmayupsetthebalanceandimpedethegrowingprocessofcoffeeplants(DaMatta&Ramalho,2006).AscanbeseeninTigure1,thepredictedchangeinprecipitationisminimalwitha17mmatmost,meaningthatprecipitationinKenya,willmostlikelynotinTluencethegrowthofcoffeeplants.Thesecondaspecttoexamineistemperature.Themostsuitabletemperatureforcoffeeplantstogrowinis18-21°C,howevertemperaturesreachingupto24°Careacceptable.Whencoffeeplantscomeincontactwithhigherorlowertemperaturesthanneeded,therespirationandphotosynthesisprocesseswillbeaffected,resultinginalowerstoragecapacityandthusmayreducetheyieldcapacityoftheplantation(DaMattaetal.,2006).AscanbeseeninTigure1a,mostcoffeeplantationsareinareaswithanaveragetemperatureof21-25°C,thismeansthataslightincreaseintemperaturemayaffecttheplants.Thepredictedmaximumincreaseoftemperaturewillbe3°Cby2050,thismeansthatsomecoffeeplantationswillbechallengedbyhighertemperatures.Theincreaseintemperaturewillmostlikelyaffectthepresent-daysuitableareasforcoffeecultivation.InordertoreviewtheeffectofclimatechangeonthesuitabilityoftheKenyancoffeeplantations,Tigure2hasbeenmade.TheTigureshowsthesuitableareasforcoffeecultivationin2050,consideringclimatechange.Astheannualprecipitationroseonlyminimal,datafromthepresent-dayhavebeenused.However,theincreaseintemperaturedoesaffectthesuitableareas.Theareadisplayingtemperatureshowstheareawherecoffeecanbecultivatedin2050.Currently,thetemperaturesdonotreachabove20°Candwithin50years,theywillnotexceedthe24°C.Themapshowsthatthereisonly2,5coffeeplantationwithinthesuitablearea,meaningthatclimatechangewillreducethecoffeeyieldofKenyaremarkably.
IntroductionEveryday,morethan2,25billioncupsofcoffeearedrunkworldwide,makingcoffeethesecond-mostvaluableexportcommodity.ArabicaandRobustacoffeearethetwomaincoffeeplantspeciescultivated,withArabicaproducingaround70%ofthetotalcoffeeproduction(Davisetal.,2012).Thecultivationofcoffeeishighlyclimate-dependentmakingitsusceptibletoanyvariation.Duetothis,coffeeproductionisonlypossibleinsomeregionsoftheworld,namelyCentral/SouthAmerica,EastAfricaandregionsinSouth-EastAsia.Arabicacoffeegrowsoptimallybetween18-21°C,howevertemperaturesmayriseupto24°C.Higherandlowertemperaturesexertstressontheplants,makingitdifTiculttogrowanddevelopappropriately(Davisetal.,2012).Besidestemperatures,altitudeandprecipitationalsodeterminethesuitablegrowingareasforcoffee.Altitudeisoptimalbetweenapproximately1000-2000meterwithameanprecipitationbetween1500-2500mmperyear.Thecoffeeindustrymayfaceseriouschallengeswiththeincreaseinclimatechangeduetotheclimate-dependencyofthespecies.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangehaspredictedthattheaverageglobaltemperaturesmayrisebetween1.8-4°C.Thismeansthattemperaturesmayexceedthe24°C,resultinginalesssustainablecoffeeindustry(Davisetal.,2012).Thechangeinclimatemayexertstressonthecoffeeplants,mostlikelyresultinginloweryieldsandplantdiseases(Jaramilloetal.,2011).
AimTheaimofthisresearchwastoexaminethepossibleclimatechangeby2050anditseffectonthesuitableareasforcoffeeproductionbyansweringthefollowingquestion:“Whataretheeffectsofclimatechangeoncoffeeproductionby2050?”Inordertoexaminetheeffects,acasestudyofKenyawasusedtomodelthepossiblechangeinclimateandinsuitableproductionareas.
MethodInordertoappointsuitablecoffeeproductionareasinKenyaregardingclimatechange,differentvariableshadtobetakenintoconsideration,namelytemperature,precipitationandaltitude.Therefore,differentmapshavebeenmade,containingthesevariablesofboththecurrentandfuturesituation,usingGeographicInformationSystems.Beforebeingabletoexaminesuitabilityofcoffeeplantations,itslocationshavetobedisplayed.ThiswasdonebycreatingashapeTilewithcoffeeplantationsinKenya,basedonapictureofthedistributionofcoffeefarms.Theseplantationsareusedinthisresearchasthemostsuitableplacestocultivatecoffeeatthepresenttime.ToobtaininformationaboutthespatialdispersionoftemperatureandprecipitationinKenya,atemperatureandprecipitationmapofAfricawasobtainedandlimitedtotheinformationofKenya(Tigure1a).ThemapshowingthecurrenttemperaturesinKenyaisa30-yearaverageofthesurfacetemperatures,publishedinEsri’sArcAtlas.Themapofprecipitationwasalteredtoshowtheaverageprecipitationinmm.Thetwomapsshowingthesituationin2050(Tigure1b)havebeenobtainedfromthesamegeodatabasecontainingdifferentterrestrialtopics.Boththepredictedprecipitationchange(inmm)andtemperaturechange(in°C)werebasedonamedianensembleanalysis.Additionally,anelevationmapofKenyahasbeenused.Although,itdidnotcontainexactnumbers,anestimationofthesuitablealtitudeforcoffeewaspossible.Thecombinationofthecriteriaforgrowingcoffee,thetemperatureandprecipitationatpresentandthechangeoftemperatureandprecipitationin2050,constructedthelastmap(Tigure2).Thismapshowsthesuitableplacesforgrowingcoffeeafterclimatechangehastakenplace.
Figure1a/1b.
Figure2.
ConclusionWiththeuseoftemperatureandprecipitationpredictionsforKenyain2050,anassessmentcanbemadefortheopportunitiesofcoffeeproduction.Thecurrentplantationswillbenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange,foremostduetoariseintemperature.Thismakesthreecompleteplantationsunabletocultivateon.IfKenyadesirestocontinuecoffeeproductionafter2050,newplantationshavetobeconstructedinthesuitablecoffeeareas.
DiscussionTherearetwocoffeeplantvarietieswhichaccountformostofthecoffeeproducedworldwide:Arabicaandrobusta.ThisresearchhasmainlyfocusedontheTirstone,becausethisspeciesaccountsformorethan90%ofthecountry’sproduction(Bagal,2013).However,therobustashrubcangrowatloweraltitudesthanArabica(sealevel-914m).Additionally,itismuchmoretoleranttowarmconditions:itcanenduretemperaturesbetween18°-36°C.Therobustacoffeeplantalsorequiresslightlymorerainfall(2200-3000mm/yr)(Bunnetal.,2015).Thehypothesisrestsonthenotionthatthearabicaisheatsensitiveandwouldsufferathighertemperatures.Incontrast,robustacantoleratehighertemperaturesandcouldthusreplacethearabica.FurtherresearchontherobustacoffeeshrubwithrespecttothechangingclimateinKenyaisneededtocometofurtherconclusions.
WMS-servershttp://services1.arcgis.com/xFy0NvdBBPjHy9cp/arcgis/rest/services/Africa_Precipitation/FeatureServerhttp://services.arcgis.com/BG6nSlhZSAWtExvp/arcgis/rest/services/30yrAvgTerrestrialSurfaceTemp/FeatureServerhttp://cumulus-web-adapter-1827610810.us-west-1.elb.amazonaws.com/arcgis/rest/services/Atlas/TerrestrialMaps/MapServerhttp://tiles.arcgis.com/tiles/xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/arcgis/rest/serviceshttp://tiles.arcgis.com/tiles/xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/arcgis/rest/services/Kenya_Elevation/MapServer/0
