Chantell Ilbury Business Excellence

The World and South The World and South AfricaAfrica

in the 2010sin the 2010s

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• The two most populous nations on Earth - China and India - are in the throes of an industrial revolution

• Simultaneously, there is a shift in the global economic centre of gravity towards the East and away from the traditionally dominant Western economies

• China’s relationship with Africa is growing

• The threat of terrorism will not abate - the war on terror will continue all the way through the 2010s

• Environmental concerns are gathering momentum

The Global GameThe Global Game- - Rules of the GameRules of the Game


• A possible US recession

• The nature, intensity and extent of acts of terror in the future

• The rate and impact of global warming

• A possible renewal of the Cold War

• The arrival and impact of the next global pandemic

The Global GameThe Global Game- - Key UncertaintiesKey Uncertainties


Long Boom

Divided WorldThe Perfect Storm

Hard Times

STABLE WORLDSTABLE WORLD

STRONG GLOBAL STRONG GLOBAL ECONOMYECONOMYWEAK GLOBAL ECONOMYWEAK GLOBAL ECONOMY

UNSTABLE WORLDUNSTABLE WORLD


The Global GameboardThe Global Gameboard

1 0001 000

2 0002 000

3 0003 000

4 0004 000

5 0005 000

6 0006 000

7 0007 000

20 00020 000

30 00030 000

40 00040 000

50 00050 000

1010 2020 4040 6060 8080

SomaliaSomaliaIndiaIndia

UgandaUganda MalawiMalawi MozambiqueMozambiqueZim ‘05Zim ‘05Zim ‘95Zim ‘95ZambiaZambia

BoloviaBolovia

NigeriaNigeria

ChinaChina

ColombiaColombiaAngolaAngola

PeruPeru

NamibiaNamibia

BrazilBrazil

ArgentinaArgentinaVenezuelaVenezuela

RussiaRussiaSOUTH AFRICASOUTH AFRICA

BotswanaBotswana

ChileChile

South KoreaSouth Korea

MalaysiaMalaysia

New ZealandNew Zealand

ItalyItalyGermanyGermany

CanadaCanada

UKUK

JapanJapan

IrelandIreland

Singapore 26/182%Singapore 26/182%Hong Kong 25/161%Hong Kong 25/161%

AustraliaAustralia

USAUSA

Integration - Expressed as % exports relative to GDPIntegration - Expressed as % exports relative to GDP

Prosperity - Prosperity - GDP per capita GDP per capita

in $USin $US TAKE-OFFTAKE-OFF

FLYING HIGHFLYING HIGH

GROUNDEDGROUNDED

Country Country PositionPosition

ss


• Globalisation has made the game a whole lot more competitive

• It is a marathon not a sprint

• It is a team event not an individual one

• Individual brilliance is required

• In order to achieve a per annum economic growth of 6% plus, South Africa will need to embrace the characteristics of a ‘winning nation’.................

The South African GameThe South African Game- - Rules of the GameRules of the Game


• A good quality of education

• A strong work ethic and spirit of entrepreneurship

• A high rate of savings

• Adequate infrastructure to support a high-growth economy

• Being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and/or services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere

• A dual-logic economy

• Competitive personal and company tax rates

• An attractive environment for foreign direct investment

• Efficient government

Characteristics of a Characteristics of a ‘Winning Nation’‘Winning Nation’


• Can South Africa retain its competitive edge in the global game?

• Will we continue to be a generally peaceful society?

• Will the Constitution remain sacrosanct?

• Issues around land ownership - resolved peacefully?

• Will inadequacies in the infrastructure be sorted out?

• HIV/AIDS - will it be contained/eradicated?

The South African GameThe South African Game- - Key UncertaintiesKey Uncertainties


• Will crime be reduced to acceptable levels?

• Quality of education system?

• What will become of the critical skills deficit?

• Zimbabwe - is there a solution on the cards?

• Can South Africa balance diplomacy between East and West, especially in a ‘Hard Times’, ‘Divided World’ or ‘Perfect Storm’ scenario?

The South African GameThe South African Game- - Key UncertaintiesKey Uncertainties


Premier League

2nd DivisionFailed State

X

COMPETITIVENESS +VECOMPETITIVENESS +VE

INTERNAL INTERNAL HARMONYHARMONYINTERNAL CONFLICTINTERNAL CONFLICT

COMPETITIVENESS -VECOMPETITIVENESS -VE

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Relegation Zone

The South African The South African GameboardGameboard

1.Context: How has the game in your industry changed, where is it heading and how have you fared as a player?

2.Scope: What is your playing field today, and how do you want to expand (or contract) it in light of the developing context and the resources at your disposal?

3.Players: Who are the players that can most advance or retard your strategy, and how should you handle them in the future?

4.Rules: What are the rules of the game that are likely to govern your strategy under all scenarios?

5.Uncertainties: What are the key uncertainties that could have a significant impact on the game and divert your course either positively or negatively?

6.Scenarios: On your gameboard, what are the possible scenarios and where would you position yourself in relation to them now?

10 Strategic Questions10 Strategic QuestionsDefining the GameDefining the Game


Gold MedalGold Medal

Fool’s ParadiseFool’s ParadiseFubarFubar

GrindstoneGrindstone

COMPETITIVENESS POSITIVECOMPETITIVENESS POSITIVE

MARKETS MARKETS POSITIVEPOSITIVE

MARKETS MARKETS NEGATIVENEGATIVE

COMPETITIVENESS NEGATIVECOMPETITIVENESS NEGATIVE

The Business GameboardThe Business GameboardThe Business GameboardThe Business Gameboard

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7. SWOT: What are your strengths and weaknesses as a player; and what are the opportunities and threats offered by the game?

8. Options: Within your span of control, what options do you have to improve your current performance and longer-term prospects in the game?

9. Decisions: Which options right now do you want to turn into decisions and what is the initial action associated with each decision?

10. Outcomes: What is your meaning of winning the game in 5 years’ time, expressed as a set of measurable outcomes?

10 Strategic Questions10 Strategic QuestionsPlaying the GamePlaying the Game


Thank you


Chantell Ilbury Business Excellence

Business

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