Agricultural growth in AfricaRecent record … & history

Jim Sumberg, Steve Wiggins & Sharada Keats

Background: story so far (v brief!)

130 years History

… optimism & pessimism

Performance since 1990: what do we know?

HISTORYFLUCTUATING PERCEPTIONS OF AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

Optimism: Africa as opportunity

Africa’s dreadful 1970s

80

90

100

110

120

130

14019

62

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

Gro

ss P

rodn

Foo

d Pe

r Cap

Inde

x 19

61/6

3 =

100,

3 y

ear m

ovin

g av

.

AfricaSouth AmericaAsia

Sahel1968-73

• Desertification???

Explaining failure of 70s & 80s

• Geography• Institutions

Exceptionalism

External: debt and dependency

• Negative protection, urban bias• Marketing boards, excessive state

Poor policy

'Only to feed her growing population at the present level of per capita food consumption,

Africa would thus need to increase her food production at a rate of, say, 3.2 per cent per year for several decades in succession.

This is of course an impossible challenge for her to meet.'

Hostage to fortune, 1990:Africa’s ‘impossible challenge’

BUT TIMES CHANGE …… OPTIMISM RETURNS

60

85

110

135

160

2000

Jan

2001

Jan

2002

Jan

2003

Jan

2004

Jan

2005

Jan

2006

Jan

2007

Jan

2008

Jan

2009

Jan

2010

Jan

2011

Jan

2012

Jan

2013

Jan

2014

Jan

Inde

x de

flate

d by

US

GDP

def

lato

r

Commodity Food and Beverage Price Index, 2005 =100, includes Food and Beverage Price Indices

Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials Index, 2005 =100, includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, andHides Price Indices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Impo

rts,

M to

nnes

Asia’s ImportsFixed Vegetable Oils

Oilseeds

Abundant land!

Africa, SS, economic growth 1996 to 2008

79 to 95:0% per cap growth

96 to 08:3.2% per cap.

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10 Average NRA for 1970/85 compared to 2000s

1970 to 85 200 to 2010

Agriculture back on agenda

Maputo Declaration 2003

CAADP ex 2003

AGRA

Regional Economic Integration

RECENT PERFORMANCE(A) REGIONAL & COUNTRY STATS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

AFR

ICA

EAST

MID

DLE

NO

RTH

SOU

TH

WES

T

Ave

rage

Ann

ual G

row

th R

ate,

%

Africa, Growth Agricultural Production, 1990/11

Ag PIN Ag PIN per cap

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Beni

n

Burk

ina

Côte

d’Iv

oire

Ethi

opia

Gha

na

Mal

awi

Moz

Nig

eria

Sene

gal

Tanz

AFR

ICA

Av.

Ann

. Gro

wth

Rat

e 90

/92

to 0

9/11 Ag PIN Ag PIN per cap

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Africa Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western

Incr

ease

, %

Av

Val

ue P

rodn

Cul

tiva

ted

Land

, US$

/ha,

co

nsta

nt 0

4/06

val

ue

1990/92

2009/11

Increase, %

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Beni

n

Burk

ina

Faso

Côte

d'Iv

oire

Ethi

opia

Gha

na

Mal

awi

Moz

ambi

que

Nig

eria

Sene

gal

Tanz

ania

Incr

ease

, %

Ave

rage

Val

ue P

rodu

ctio

n Cu

ltiv

ated

Lan

d, U

S$ c

onst

ant

04/0

6, p

er h

a

1990/92

2009/11

Increase

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Africa Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western

Incr

ease

see

n 19

90/9

2 to

200

9/11

, %

Val

ue p

er E

AP

Ag,

Int$

con

t 04/

06Growth of agricultural labour productivity, Africa,

1990/92 to 2009/11

1990/922009/11Change

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Incr

ease

90/

92 to

09/

11, %

Val

ue, p

er E

AP

Ag,

Int$

con

stan

t 04/

06

1990/922009/11Increase, per cent

MICRO STUDIES: ANY LESSONS?[FAC COMMERCIALISATION]

1. Production, Incomes can rise

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Tef Wheat Chickpeas Lentils Onion Tomato Greenpepper

Lume, Gross Margin, US$/ha

2. No need for dramatic change

Domestic markets

Gradual change• Cautious commercialisation

Surprisingly active labour & land markets

Lack of credit hinders, does not stop

3. Not exceptional

Peri-urban now the norm

BUT WHERE ARE THE LONG STUDIES?

But where are the long studies?

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Farm

->fa

rm

Farm

->m

iddl

e

Farm

->ci

ty

Mid

dle

->

farm

Mid

dle

->…

Mid

dle

->

city

Tota

l

Mill

ions Kagera, Tanzania: Consumption, Ann, Adult Equiv, Tshs

1991/942010

Concluding Half empty: room for improvement

Half full: things are improving

Country variations: learn from Africa

[Learn right lessons from Asia]