Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends

January 22nd, 2010

Springfield, Missouri

Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)University of Missouri

Overview of Session

• A few words about OSEDA• Missouri Demographic Trends• The 2010 Census

– The Decennial Census 2010– The American Community Survey (ACS)

• Understanding Local Missouri Communities Using ACS Applications– http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofileme

nu.html

• Data Data

• Information Information

• Knowledge Knowledge

• WisdomWisdom

“The construction of knowledge involves the orderly loss of information, not it’s mindless accumulation.”

-- Kenneth Boulding

Http://WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU

OSEDA collaborates with partners in the analysis of social and economic data in ways that contribute to improvements in the well-being of people, enterprises and communities.

OSEDA…

TRENDS…

Total Population 2009

World: 6.8 Billion

U.S.: 307 Million

Mo.: 5,987,580

Change in Population By State2000 – 2008

Change in Population By State 2000 – 2008 Total Population 2009

World: 6.8 Billion

U.S.: 307 Million

Mo.: 5,987,580

Missouri 381,515 6.8%

US 24,834,593 8.8%

**

* **

*

U.S. Increase 24.8 Million (8.8%)

Six States account for 55%

Using the latest 2009Population Estimates to make projections for2010 -- Missouri retainsthe 9th

The December estimatesshow Arizona growing alittle less rapidly…

But, migration is beingimpacted by the recession, and “Complete Count” issues may make the difference.

The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

Population Estimates

• More Population Estimates via OSEDA at

MCDC.missouri.edu• Sub-County Estimates for 2008 just

released….Columbia officially over 100,000.

• OSEDA County Profiles

Male FemaleMale Female

Population Pyramids of MissouriPercent of Total Population2000 2020

TRENDS…

TRENDS…

Quality of Life

Quality of Life

2010 Census

• Mother of all address lists (enumeration)• Only “Short Form” in 2010 (the count)• Reapportionment and redistricting file by the end of

2010.• Representation and Resource Allocation• Issues: “Disproportionate Undercount”• Hence: “Complete Count” Programs

• Instead of “Long Form” we have:– “The American Community Survey”

American Community Survey

• Nationwide, continuous annual survey collecting the information on the 2000 Census “long form”– Demographic, Economic, Social and Housing– From 1 in 6 households in 2000 to 1 in 8 now– Three Million households a year

• Most definitive source of such data (allocations)• Involves Margins of Error --- ( +/- ) like polls.

– OSEDA Web application uses bold font for low MOE…

• Three types of estimates each year based on size– 1-Year -- 65,000 population or more (Available Now) – 3-Year -- 20,000 population or more (Available Now)– 5-year -- Less than 20,000 population (Coming fall 2010)

American Community Survey

• Resources:– Http://OSEDA.Missouri.edu– Http://mcdc.missouri.edu – Http://census.gov

• ApplicationsHttp://OSEDA.Missouri.edu

Reports/Applications

Demographics

Profiles

Trendshttp://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html

http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acstrendmenu.html

Under 20K PeriodEstimates will beAvailable in the fallof 2010

Annual County Maps will then be possible from ACS

Public Use Mirco Areas (PUMS)

Changing Missouri Demographics: Local Population Trends

January 22nd, 2010

Springfield, Missouri

Tracy Greever-Rice PhD, Associate Director Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)University of Missouri