Changing HE / higher skills provision22nd March 2013

Louis Coiffait, Head of Research

@LouisMMCoiffait

The Pearson Think Tank

thepearsonthinktank.com

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The future of HE?

2. WHERE? Informally, outside classes, wherever suits More courses with multiple global locations

1. WHO? More students, from and in emerging nations

More older, working and part time students

3. HOW? Blended, online and personalised services Socially with others, virtually or in person

4. WHY?

Economic benefit, for them and their country

But for a better world too - values

Reminding ourselves of the current contextWhy might HE / higher-level skills matter?

2008 recession, 2013 0.6% UK growth, maybe even triple dip? Still c. 1m young people unemployed Plan A austerity, £11.5bn savings this Spending Round UK Plc, a globally competitive knowledge economy? Radical changes to make UK HE / skills systems more ‘responsive’…

2030 global labour force to grow from 2.9bn today to 3.5 billion Projected shortfall of 13% (40m) HE-level workers by 2020 60% of global labour force growth from India, South Asia and Africa Changing nature of both the workplace and the workers

McKinsey http://goo.gl/svjKK

Reminding ourselves of the current contextWhy might HE / higher-level skills matter?

ONS via Guardian http://goo.gl/VyPR6

Trends in UK HE / higher skills provisionWhat is currently happening on the ground?

Funding increasingly follows learners in England, 4 nations diverging

Increasingly competitive and marketised system, student ‘choice’e.g. competing for 115k ABB students, Key Information Set (KIS)

Total HE sector income up 2.8% and ‘efficiencies’ made... but wide variation, low surpluses, 3.5% fall in 2012/13 learners

Growing (narrow?) focus on outcomes by all stakeholderseducation = employment = £ / growth ?

Institutions seeking to be distinctive and attractivee.g. How many are ‘The employability university’

Changing UK HE / higher skillsWhat alternatives are emerging?

Ongoing debate about alternative (to) HE

(Higher) apprenticeships, with strong government backing…but ongoing challenges to delivering them well at scale

Large employers increasingly targeting school leavers sometimes incorporating HE… the Morrisons Academy at Hull

Unisometimes not… Deloitte BrightStart

Cost of HE; recent UK rises, USA already highe.g. $100k Thiel fellowships (not to go to uni)

Corrosive narrative of ‘too many thick kids on Mickey-mouse courses’

-40% since 2010 (105k decline) - more sensitive to fees

Hard to measure, highly variable provision, blurred definitions

Lower completion / achievement - impact on rankings

A complex picture, needs careful institutional / national focus

IES identified four types; career enhancers, career changers, non-career learners and career entrants and suggested FE and private providers have the most expansion potential

Institute for Employment Studies (IES) http://goo.gl/ibV15

Changing UK HE / higher skillsHow is part-time provision changing?

How do these groups overlap with part-time learners?

Mature learners

Postgrads

International students

Opportunities for institutional and course specialisation?

Changing UK HE / higher skillsCan provision change to target/support other groups?

MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs MOOCs (hype?) It is an acceleration of change but the debate often too polarised Tends to miss the history of online and open learning Unclear where it leads the sector yet (I’m pretty hopeful)

Stupid name, soon MOOCs will just be known as … HE (truly blended)

Make provision cheaper, flexible and data-supported - open up access

How is your institution using technology to support its mission?…and to target / support different groups?

Changing UK HE / higher skillsHow is online provision changing?

Thank you!

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…any questions?