Imagining the Future Seamus Heaney Lecture Series St. Patrick’s College Drumcondra

Changing Climates, Changing Communities

Ciarán Cuffe, February 2013

Changing Climates, Changing Communities

Ciarán Cuffe, February 2013

Imagining the Future Seamus Heaney Lecture Series St. Patrick’s College Drumcondra

Seamus Heaney Höfn 2006

“The three-tongued glacier has begun to melt.What will we do, they ask, when boulder-miltComes wallowing across the delta flats

And the miles-deep shag-ice makes its move?”

Millmount Avenue 2011

Millmount Avenue 2002

Millmount Terrace 2002

John Tyndall

1820-1893

Born Leighlinbridge,

Carlow

Irish Physicist

Alpine Mountaineer

Royal Institution, London

Heat, Sound, Light,

Proved greenhouse effect

Charles Keeling

1928-2005

Born Scranton,

Pennsylvania

American scientist

Classical Pianist and

Spatial Planner

Scripps Institute and

Mauna Loa, USA

Measured CO2

increases

Keeling Curve

Mary Robinson at COP 15, Copenhagen

Sea level rise

Sea level rise is expected to continue for centuries.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that during the 21st century, sea level will rise another 18 to 59 cm, but …

Current sea levels

One meter rise

Sea level rise

…these numbers do not include "uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow"

More recent projections assessed by the US National Research Council suggest possible sea level rise over the 21st century of between 56 and 200 cm

Two metre rise

Sea level rise

A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal would put 11 percent of the Bangladesh's coastal land underwater, creating 7–10 million climate refugees

COP 15, Copenhagen

Layers of action

1. International

2. European Union

3. National

4. Local Authority

5. Community

International Action

European Union Action

EU Coordination COP 16, Cancun

ESPON Climate Impacts, EU

National Action

Climate Campaigning, 2005

Irish Energy Flows, 2007

Irish Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 2007

Local Authority Action

Community Action

Mud Island, Community Garden, Dublin City

Community Play Area, Freiburg, Germany

Wind turbines and farm land, France

We have entered the Anthropocene, a period where vulnerable coastal cities are flooded, fertile lands submerged, and crops fail. Many regions will have to stage a managed retreat from low-lying coastal towns and countryside.

The young will not forgive what we forgive. It is time to act.

Conclusions

References

Bryan, J. (2013) Growing the Agri-Food Sector Sustainably (online) Available http://www.ifa.ie/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=y3A1x6zJTvo%3d&tabid=1180 (accessed 11th February 2013)

Elliot, L (2013) IMF sees hope beyond the crisis but cuts world growth predictions. (online) Available www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/23/imf-world-growth-forecast-davosGuardian (accessed 11th February 2013)

Lagarde, C. (2013) A New Global Economy for a New Generation (online) Available http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/012313.htm (accessed 11 February 2013)

National Economic & Social Council (2012) Towards a New National Climate Policy: Interim Report of the NESC Secretariat. Dublin: NESC.

World Bank (2012) Turning Down the Heat -Why a 4° Warmer World Must be Avoided. Washington: World Bank.