Changes in the drylands of eastern Africa Understanding and mapping livelihood dynamics and resilience within pastoralist systems Study summary and implications Livelihoods in Transition technical meeting of the Global Alliance, Addis Ababa 8-9th September 2016

Introducing the research

The starting point of the analysis were these questions: • What are the pathways of change being experienced in different

pastoral systems, and for different livelihood groups within these, in eastern Africa, over the last fifteen years to date, according to the evidence and data?

• What is the state of the data on these changes? • How are these dynamic changes affecting the nature, extent and

distribution of poverty and vulnerability as well as the scope for strengthening resilience today?

The study included: (a) a synthesis of evidence across scholarly and ‘grey’ materials on

poverty, vulnerability, livelihoods and change in eastern Africa’s drylands;

(b) a data mapping of national and sub-national datasets on poverty, vulnerability, livelihoods and resilience; and

(c) analysis of priority, long-term evidence gaps as well as recommendations on future research and data collection.

A Systems Approach

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Paradoxical dynamics of changing pastoralism • Mobile and semi-mobile livestock-keeping still the most productive

activity in nearly all drylands yet diminishing herd sizes for most • Commercialisation in the livestock sector and export trade is

intensifying, but levels of poverty and vulnerability are worsening • The mobility of people with herds has greatly decreased yet the

locational separation of household members is more common • Climate risks necessitate flexibility and adaptability yet rangelands are

fragmenting and key grazing resources are being commodified

Trends shaping pastoralism in the region • Continuing growth in regional livestock marketing and trade

• Rangeland fragmentation through processes of excision, privatisation (enclosures) and commodification of rangeland resources

• Increasing sedentarisation and resource-claims making – fencing of forage banks in Borana, individualisation of tenure in South Rift

• Indigenous capital and state investment encouraging more dynamic small town growth

• Although renewal of state interest in drylands is welcome, outcomes of investment can be ambiguous

• Adaptive processes in customary systems under threat – no clear rainfall trendlines, but options to manage uncertainty are squeezed

Diverging pathways and prospects

• Complex and contradictory livelihood transformations – basic conundrum is that vulnerability and poverty worsen even while economic growth abounds and commercialisation processes accelerate

Key findings on diversification • Those who combine livestock-based livelihood with other income

have the highest level of wellbeing and the least vulnerability • Sedentarised pastoralists experience the highest levels of poverty and

greatest resilience challenges • Yet, small town growth presents new economic opportunities and

options to cope during crises. These are highly gendered, with women taking on much of the newly-important town-based work and enterprise, and in some cases controlling more of the income from these

• Diversification is not only about leaving pastoralism, but rather many use it as a way to remain in or return to pastoralism

• Literature review of data challenges in the drylands • Reviewed existing catalogue of national level data • Sought out datasets from large studies and programmes in drylands • Included baseline studies and other evaluation datasets • Focused mainly on data available since 2000. • Interested to find long-runs of data/and panel data • Created excel database with a range of indicators on data type;

quality; characteristics; themes. • Limited inclusion of small scale, local livelihood-type surveys

Data Mapping Methodology

Characteristics of Data Mapping

• 107 datasets: a large range of survey and data characteristics captured in excel

• 94% published or cited • Primarily household level data representative at sub-national

level • 51% quant, 39% MM, 2% participatory, 7% unknown • 23% panel, 67% cross-section, 9% unknown • 16% impact evaluation, 84% research • 34% open access, 13% upon request, 5% closed access, 48%

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Type of data collected by pastoralist system

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Framework of Analysis: A Conceptual Model to Understand Change Over Time

Layer One: System/context analysis

Layer Two: Mapping directionality livelihood and economic activities of different households and individuals

Level Three: Developing categories to model livelihood change and resilience over time

Developing a long view of system change over time

Measuring recovery and resilience Recovery/Interim Resilience Outcome vs. Resilience Outcome

Measure Outcome

Income based resilience index Recovery

How long does it take for households to return to pre-shock income level?

‘Bounce Back’ to income level

Resilience How long does it take to attain an income above extreme poverty threshold?

Bounce back and build up

Asset based index Recovery

How long does it take for household to return to re-shock asset level?

‘Bounce back’ to herd/resource size

Resilience How long does it take household to get to a herd threshold of 4.5 TLUs?

Bounce back and build up

Potentially Comparable Datasets for livelihood trend analysis Ethiopia’s Borana Plateau: income sources, assets, health, livestock (herd size, sale, death, purchase), land use, , food aid, social transfers & remittances

PARIMA (2000-2002)

IBLI (2012-2015)

Northern Kenya: income sources, livestock (herd size, sale, death, purchase), land use, productive assets, food aid, social transfers & remittances, education, health, weather variability

PARIMA (2000-2002)

IBLI (2009-2013)

Kenya’s Maasai South Rift: demographics, income & income sources, milk production, consumption & sales, livestock (herd size, sale, death, purchase), crop production, market access, education

Homewood, et al Staying Maasai (1998-2004)

Grandin Maasai Systems Study (1981-1985)

Karamoja, Uganda: Northern Uganda Baseline Study (2004, panel with 2008): income, access to credit, nutrition, dietary diversity, health, livestock, land use, crop production, productive assets, education, women’s empowerment, conflict

Northern Uganda Baseline Study (2004)

Northern Uganda Baseline Study (panel 2008)

Somalia Region: dietary diversity, crop production, child nutrition, health

Devereux (2006) RAIN+ (2011)

Recommendations for future resilience research in drylands • Data collection and analysis should strive for a longitudinal perspective

of change over time through the collection of panel data • Large-scale data collection efforts in drylands must adequately

represent the full diversity of livelihoods found in these areas, include definitions of pastoralists and questions that are appropriate to pastoralist lives

• Data sets should be shared publicly and cross-posted • Further research insights required on: urbanisation and small town

growth, demographic change including population and migration, education and services, and internal social dynamics around gender and young people

• More efforts are required to stimulate research demand from within pastoral societies