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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOMATICS AND GEOSCIENCES

Volume 7, No 2, 2016

© Copyright by the authors - Licensee IPA- Under Creative Commons license 3.0

Research article ISSN 0976 – 4380

Submitted on April 2016 published on November 2016 225

Change in land use-land cover and population dynamics: A town-level

Study of Ahmedabad city sub-District of Gujarat

Ankit Sikarwar1, Aparajita Chattopadhyay2

1- Doctoral fellow, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

2- Assistant Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

Change in Land Use-Land cover (LULC) is a worldwide phenomenon. However, in certain

places, the rate of change is expeditious, particularly because of increasing population and

urbanization within a limited space. This study encompasses analysis of LULC change during

the last two decades and its association with population parameters in one of the leading

metro cities in India, i.e. Ahmedabad City sub-district in Gujarat state in India. This study

has used the Landsat images for LULC change detection and Census data of the same time

period, to indicate the association of the total population, workforce, number of households,

literacy, and caste stratification with LULC change. The peripheral change is observed

maximum, with a high correlation of total and working population, indicating a shift of core

to periphery expansion in Ahmedabad City sub-district. Planners need to target

environmental policies for the western side of the Sabarmati River, experiencing speedy

change.

Keywords: Land use; land cover; population; change detection; Ahmedabad; urbanization

1. Introduction

Urbanization is a gift to human civilization if it is harmonized and designed in tune with

nature’s limit. According to United Nations Population Fund, world’s urban population is

expected to reach 81% by 2030 (as cited by Imhoff, Zhang, Wolfe & Bounoua, 2010). The

conversion of rural areas into urban areas through development is occurring at an

unprecedented rate in the recent human record and thus, is having an obvious effect on the

natural functioning of the ecosystem (Turner, 1994). The first and foremost structural change

of urbanization is being observed in the form of transformation of the land. In recent years,

cities all over the world have experienced rapid urban growth because of an increase in the

population and the flow of people from rural to urban areas. Larger towns and cities of the

developing world are facing unplanned and uncontrolled growth within or outside the city

limits.

The process of urbanization in India gained momentum along with industrial revolution way

back in the 1970s followed by globalization. Forests were cleared, grasslands ploughed or

razed, wetlands drained and croplands encroached upon under the influence of expanding

cities, yet never as fast as in the last decade (Rehman, 2007). In 1991, there were 23

metropolitan cities in India, which has increased to 35 in 2001 and 53 in 2011. India is

witnessing urbanization and development, experiencing significant changes in LULC. These

changes are important mainly for those emerging metropolitan cities that are growing fast,

mainly for rapid economic structural changes. Most of the studies focus on those areas where

Change in land use-land cover and population dynamics: A town-level Study of Ahmedabad city sub-District

of Gujarat

Ankit Sikarwar

International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences

Volume 7 Issue 2, 2016 226

the magnitude of urbanization is very high and the alteration of the land cover is at an

alarming rate.

2. Study area

The city of Ahmedabad was founded in 1411 AD as a walled city on the eastern bank of the

river Sabarmati, now the seventh largest metropolis in India and the largest in the state of

Gujarat. The population of the city has increased from 3.31 million in 1991 to 5.8 million in

2011 (Census of India, 2011). Ahmedabad City sub-district consisting of 18 sub-units

(towns/villages) lies between 22° 55` and 23° 08` north latitude and 72° 28` and 72° 42` east

longitude. The area is devoid of any major physical features except the river Sabarmati,

which is cutting across the city into two parts: eastern walled city and western Ahmedabad on

either side of its banks (Figure 1). Ahmedabad is showing remarkable developmental

activities in terms of urbanization and industrialization in recent decades. Although not

unique to Ahmedabad, the interaction of demographic and economic forces has resulted in a

highly segmented spatial pattern of growth in terms of income-class and environmental

qualities (Dutta, 2000). It is essential to study the trends and magnitude of changes in LULC

as well as the population change in the towns and villages of the Ahmedabad City sub-district

for better policy and development planning.

Figure 1: Location map of the Ahmedabad City sub-district

3. Data sources and methodology:

This study used satellite images derived from the United States Geological Survey

(http://glovis.usgs.gov). Details of the images are as given in Table 1. For the analysis of

population parameters at village and town level, population data have been collected from the

District Census Handbook of Ahmedabad (Census of India, 1991 and 2001) and Primary

Census Abstract of Gujarat (Census of India, 2011). The study has incorporated the software


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Ankit Sikarwar



like Erdas Imagine 9.2, Arc GIS 10, and SPSS 20 etc. for the quantitative analyses of the

acquired data to fulfil the objectives of the study. The methodology incorporated in land use

and land cover change detection is represented by the flow diagram given in Figure 2. Here

the LULC is classified into five categories as follows:

Built-up area: Residences, commercial centers, industrial zones, railways, highways,

expressways and others

Agricultural land: Arable agricultural land and others

Vegetation cover: Natural forest land, shrub lands, and others

Water body: Rivers, ponds, lakes, reservoirs, permanent and seasonal wetlands and

others

Fallow land: Land without vegetation cover, exposed soil and others

Figure 1: Steps involved in LULC mapping.

Table 1: Satellite data used in the study.

Image Acquisition date Resolution Path/Row

1 LANDSAT-5 TM Nov. 14, 1991 30 meter 149/044

2 LANDSAT-5 TM Jan. 23, 2003 30 meter 149/044

3 LANDSAT-5 TM Dec. 4, 2010 30 meter 149/044

Source: United States Geological Survey (http://glovis.usgs.gov)

4. Results and Discussion

The study first looked into the LULC change followed by level and trends in population

characteristics. Multivariate analysis is used to understand the association of population and

LULC change.

4.1 Land Use-Land cover change in the Ahmedabad City sub-district

Table 2 and Figure 3 indicate significant LULC change over time. These changes in LULC

classes are associated with each other. The most significant change is observed in the built-up

area. This area has occupied 28 percent of the total area of Ahmedabad City sub-district in

1991 and increased to 76 percent of the total area in 2010. Such rapid change is a

consequence of the high level of urbanization. The LULC category that is experiencing


of Gujarat

Ankit Sikarwar



significant negative change is agricultural land. The area under agricultural land is accounted

50 percent of the total area in 1991 and reduced to seven percent of the total area in 2010. In

rural areas, the forested land is converted into agricultural land and later transformed into the

built-up area as a consequence of developmental processes. Whereas in the core areas of the

city forested part is transformed into a built-up area. The possible contributing factor behind

this change is penetration of developmental activities from the urban areas to the sub-urban

and rural areas. Rapidly increasing population and high inflow of migrants has resulted in the

transformation of forested land in residential areas. Also, the new industries and factories are

continuing to establish in the periphery of the city and have contributed in the process of land

transformation.

Figure 3: Supervised classification of the LANDSAT images of Ahmedabad Sub-district

Although the areas under the categories of the water body and fallow land shared very less

percent of the total area, changes in these land uses are important to discuss. The area under


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Ankit Sikarwar



the fallow land is halved during 1990 to 2010. Whereas areas under water body are gradually

increased, occupying a space of three sq.km in 1990 and eight sq.km in 2010. This is mainly

because of the development of riverfront along the Sabarmati River and suitable management

of water harvesting in the vicinity.

Major LULC categories at village/town level have been calculated to understand the changes

at micro levels (Figure 4). The changes are significant mostly at the outer part of the

Ahmedabad City sub-district. Towns experiencing a maximum change of the area under the

built-up category are Nikol, Gyaspur, Naroda, Makarba, Saijpur-Gopalpur etc. While the

Table 2: Estimation of area under different LULC categories and changes over time.

Figure 4: Changes in LULC categories over time

Inner parts of the study area such as Ahmedabad MC (Municipal Corporation), Maktampur

and Ranip have experienced less change in LULC. Towns accounting for maximum change

in agricultural land are Chandlodiya, Ghatlodiya, Memnagar, Vastrapur etc. Highest change

(around minus 80 percent) in vegetation cover has been observed at Saijpur-Gopalpur and

Naroda towns. Probable factors related to the minimal change in core and maximal change in

Land use- Land

cover category

Area change in area

from 1991 to 2010 1991 2003 2010

sq.

km.

percent

to total

sq.

km.

percent

to total

sq.

km.

percent

to total sq. km.

in

percent

Built-up Area 71 28 128 50 194 76 123 173

Water Body 3 1 6 2 8 3 5 167

Fallow Land 10 4 8 3 5 2 -5 -50

Vegetation

Cover 44 17 37 15 30 12 -14 -32

Agricultural

Land 127 50 76 30 18 7 -109 -86

Total Area 255 100 255 100 255 100


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Ankit Sikarwar



the outer part include the availability of low-priced land in the periphery region, nearness to

the major transport network, open and vacant land compared to the inner part of the city.

To understand the dynamism of population characteristics, the study has analyzed the level

and percent change of selected parameters: total population, growth rate, population density,

main workers, literates, number of households, scheduled caste population, and scheduled

tribe population and overall sex ratio (Table 3 and Figure 5).

Figure 2: Change in selected population parameters from 1991 to 2011.


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Ankit Sikarwar



Table 2: Changes in selected population variables from 1991 to 2011.

Sr

.

n

o.

Name of

the

village/t

own

Cahn

ge in

Dens

ity

1991

-

2011

pop.

Gro

wth

rate(

in%)

Percent Change from 1991 to 2011

Tota

Popult

ion

Main

Wor

ker

Litera

tes

no. of

Househ

olds

Schedu

led

Caste

Schedu

led

Tribe

Sex

Rat

io

1 Ahmeda

bad MC 7584 2.0 49 66 76 62 33 118 -0.6

2

Ahmeda

bad

Contt.

1092 2.1 51 64 83 59 -19 25 -2.5

3 Ranip 1181

5 3.7 111 130 147 102 209 338 -4.3

4 Chandlo

diya

1359

1 4.8 159 186 144 234 1467 22214 -5.1

5 Ghatlodi

ya

2953

7 5.6 209 237 226 215 95 327 -2.2

6 Memnag

ar

1694

8 4.6 151 167 173 163 28 100 -0.3

7 Vastrapu

r 9049 7.1 316 412 1585 337 733 53 4.5

8 Makarba 2124 6.1 236 190 683 220 -22 196 -6.8

9 Sarkhej-

Okaf 1745 3.8 114 125 154 136 123 1377 -1.9

1

0 Vejalpur

1443

9 5.4 194 222 240 220 227 391 1.7

1

1

Maktam

pur 7935 3.5 103 134 155 127 -100 0 -0.3

1

2 Gyaspur 3095 10.6 733 665 1600 668 110 0 -4.0

1

3

Shahwad

i 1309 7.9 384 334 427 378 2930 0

10.

7

1

4 Piplaj 67 0.7 16 27 181 350 10 -89 0.4

1

5

Saijpur-

Gopalpu

r

952 3.6 105 121 245 92 94 414

-

13.

0

1

6 Odhav 9304 5.0 173 183 194 128 34 156 -1.4

1

7 Nikol 6581 12.3 1075 885 2022 833 185 0 6.3

1

8 Naroda

3142

3 17.7 3366 4543 4683 1261 5480 0 -3.3

Ahmeda

bad City

Taluka

7655 5.9 69 87 103 80 43 167 -0.6


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4.2 Thematic superimposition of population over LULC map

Thematic superimposition of LULC map and dot map of the population (Figure 6) indicates

that the population is growing over those areas experiencing a significant increase in built-up

land in the given period of twenty years.

4.3 Correlation matrix for selected parameters of population and LULC

Table 4 indicates the association of change in LULC classes with the change in some

important population variables. The significant strong positive association exists with a

change in built up area and change in number of literates and number of households.

Agricultural land has declined over time. Same is the case for vegetation cover i.e. with an

increase in proportion literate and percent workers; in the given area vegetation cover has

reduced noticeably. As obvious, population increase has a high association with an increase

in main workers, literates, number of households, indicating an inflow of working class

people in the growing outer part of Ahmedabad city sub-district.

Figure 3: Thematic Super-imposition of LULC map and Total Population.


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Ankit Sikarwar



Table 3: Correlation matrix between percent change in selected LULC categories and population

variables from 1991 to 2011.

(Note: * = p < 0.05, ** = p < 0.01, *** = p < 0.001)

5. Summary and Conclusion

The present study has assessed LULC changes and variation of population characteristics in

Ahmedabad City sub-district in Gujarat state in India for a time period of 1991-2010, using

GIS and statistical techniques. A multi-temporal analysis is applied to the Landsat images for

change detection and rate of change is calculated from Census data (1991 to 2011) for the

same time period. The association is studied with the use of multiple correlation and linear

regression techniques. The study area has experienced rapid change, particularly in the built-

up area, agricultural land, and vegetation cover. From 1991 to 2010, built-up area of

Ahmedabad City sub-district has witnessed an overall increment of 173 percent and such

huge change has contributed mainly from agricultural and forest land. The magnitude of

Percent change in….

Built

-up

area

Agric

ultura

l land

Veget

ation

cover

Total

Popul

ation

Main

Wor

kers

Lite

rate

s

Hous

ehol

ds

Sch

edu

led

Cas

te

Sch

edu

led

Tri

bes

Se

x

Rat

io

Built-up

area 1

Agricult

ural land

0.21

4 1

Vegetati

on cover

-

0.22

8

0.15 1

Total

Populati

on

0.56

1*

-

0.132

-

0.459 1

Main

Workers

0.46

1

-

0.158

-

0.485

*

0.990

*** 1

Literates 0.66

6**

-

0.124

-

0.494

*

0.961

***

0.93

7*** 1

Househo

lds

0.72

5***

-

0.096

-

0.349

0.917

***

0.86

5***

0.9

41*

**

1

Schedule

d Caste

0.20

7

-

0.159

-

0.352

0.828

***

0.85

1***

0.7

4**

*

0.70

8*** 1

Schedule

d Tribes

-

0.14

1

-

0.179

-

0.062

-

0.097

-

0.08

4

-

0.1

42

-

0.08

1

0.1

32 1

Sex

Ratio -0.26

-

0.072

-

0.377 0.036

-

0.01

4

0.0

83

0.21

2

0.1

77

-

0.2

03

1


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changes in LULC as well as in population parameters has recorded high in specific situated at

the outer part of the Ahmedabad City sub-district. The process of change (in LULC and

population) has been shifted from core to periphery region. The western side of the Sabarmati

River has developed in the recent past and has experienced significant transformation in

LULC and population dynamism as compared to the eastern side of the Ahmedabad city sub-

district. Thus, for a balanced development in the rapidly growing periphery of the sub-district,

there is a need for suitable planning that can help a balanced expansion, keeping in mind the

limits to growth.

6. References

1. Dutta, S. S. (2000). Partnerships in urban development: a review of Ahmedabad’s

experience. Environment and Urbanization, 12(1), pp. 13-26.

2. Imhoff, M. L., Zhang, P., Wolfe, R. E., & Bounoua, L. (2010). Remote sensing of the

urban heat island effect across biomes in the continental USA. Remote Sensing of

Environment, 114(3), pp. 504-513.

3. Rahman, A. (2007). Application of remote sensing and GIS technique for urban

environmental management and sustainable development of Delhi, India. In Applied

remote sensing for urban planning, governance and sustainability. Springer Berlin

Heidelberg. pp. 165-197

4. Registrar General of India. (1991). Census of India 1991: Primary Census Abstract,

Ahmedabad. Government of India. New Delhi.

5. Registrar General of India. (2001). Census of India 2001: District Census Handbook,

Ahmedabad. Government of India. New Delhi. Retrieved from:

6. Registrar General of India. (2011). Census of India 2011: Primary Census Abstract,

Ahmedabad. Government of India. New Delhi.

7. Turner, B. L. (1994). Local faces, global flows: the role of land use and land cover in

global environmental change. Land Degradation & Development,5 (2), pp. 71-78.

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