Challenging Boeing & Airbus – China’s Most Ambitious Strategy to Date?

China 2020: Future Planes, Jumbo Jets & Aviation

France Houdard

Managing [email protected]

January 2011

China 2020: Future Planes, Jumbo Jets & Aviation Challenging Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, and Suppliers – Win-Win or Win-Lose?

Today: China has World’s 2nd Largest Aircraft Fleet

US Fleet #1 … China Fleet #2

6,567

8,000

10,000

12,000

Existing Aircraft Fleets (2010)

Air

cra

ft (

un

its)

1Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved..

6,567

1,383

826 702423 447 387 507 544 479

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

US China UK Germany India Russia Ireland Australia Japan Brazil

Air

cra

ft (

un

its)

Source: Airfleets, COMAC

China’s Airlines Largely Comprised for Foreign Aircraft

120

140

160

180

200

China Major Airline Fleet Composition* Boeing

Airbus

Other Foreign

Today: China Fleet Comprised of 99% Foreign Aircraft


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Source: Company Websites; Planespotters

* December 2010

Boein

g

Airbus

Boein

g

Airbus

Boein

g

Airbus

The Future: … 230% Increase in Aircraft Needed in China (2028)

230% Increase in Aircraft Needed in China by 2028

5,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Existing Fleet 2010

New Deliveries 2028Existing Fleet and New Deliveries (2010 - 2028)

Air

cra

ft (

un

its)


6,567

1,383826 702 423 447 387 507 544 479

3,165

1,150 1,1001,050 1,000

600 550 500 480

0

2,000

4,000

6,000


Air

cra

ft (

un

its)

Source: Airfleets, COMAC, Boein,g, EIU

Driven by: Forward Trend in Exploding Middle Class

China’s Middle Class: 400 million (2010) … 500 million (2015)

Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Population

Urb

an

Po

pu

latio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Urban Household Income(US$ – PPP-Adjusted)

Global > US$107,800

Affluent US$3,800 - 107,800

607

684

756

822

90

99

600

700

800

900

607

684

756

822

Upper Middle Class

Lower Middle Class


Urb

an

Po

pu

latio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Upper Middle US$21,501 – 53,900

Lower Middle US$13,500 – 21,500

Poor < US$13,500

531

239

255

157106

73

53 170355 461

525

350

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010F 2015F 2020F 2025F

531

Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008

China World’s 3rd Highest Traffic Volume by 2020

175

200

225

250

Outbound, Chinese Inbound, Foreign

Foreign Inbound & Chinese Outbound Travel Volume

Driven by: Growth Spike in China’s Travel Volume

237

167 million Traveler Increase

US

D m

illio

ns


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1321

51

CAGR 11.8%69

US

D m

illio

ns

Source: China National Tourism Association (CTNA); World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Foreign Investors: … hunger for China Opportunity

Embraer Diamond

Training O O O

O

Aerospace OEM’s Functional Deployments in China

Wide Variance in Strategies employed by Major Aerospace OEM’s


Engineering O

Manufacturing / Assembly O O O

Sourcing O O O O O O

Service O O O

Sales O O O O O O

Source: Company Information pages, EIU

China Domestic

Planes1%

Other Foreign Aircraft, 10%

China Civil Aircraft Fleet (2010)

China: … also hungers for Opportunity, However

China Fleet 99% Foreign Airplanes

China Aircraft Fleet

Boeing 736

Airbus 500

Other 133

Domestic 14

Total Aircraft 1,383


Boeing53%

Airbus36%

Source: All Publically Available Information , Company Website

Therefore: … China developing own Suite of Domestic Aircraft

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (2013): C-series• Aircraft Type110/130 , Single-aisle - Twin-Turbofan

2013

Stage 1 – Regional Jet (2010): ARJ21 • Aircraft Type: 70 to 90 Seat Twin Turbo-Fan• Development: CIVIC drawing on foreign suppliers for nearly all research and

development, production for sub-systems, local partner providing facility, sub-contracting• Schedule: First Flight - November 2008 and in-service 2010/11

2010

Stage 1 – Regional Jet (2010): MA 700• Aircraft Type: 60- 70 seats • Development: Xian Aircraft Corporation• Schedule: Launch 2009 and in-service 2015

2015

8Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Chinese Aerospace Market Research

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (2016): C919• Aircraft Type: Single-Aisle Narrow Body (156 Seat, 168 Seat and 180 Seat)• Development: COMAC and joint ventures with foreign suppliers to jointly research and

develop the platform systems• Schedule: First Flight in 2014 and In- Service in 2016

2016

• Aircraft Type110/130 , Single-aisle - Twin-Turbofan• Development: : Fuselage Build by AVIC’s, Shenyang Aircraft Industries Group ,

Bombardier • Schedule: First Flight in 2011 and In- Service in 2013

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (201X): CS2010• Aircraft Type: 150-200 Seat- Single-aisle - Twin Turbofan• Development: Guangdong Prosperous Airline• Schedule: First Flight in 20xx and In- Service in 20xx

20XX

Beijing

Harbin

Shenyang

Moreover: … China Broadening entire Industrial Base

Leveraging Foreign Investment in Production and Research & Development

Turbine NGVs, turbine rings, compressor seals

Landing gear & engine nacelle components

A350 composite parts

Heat shields

A320 Final Assembly Line

EC175 design & production

ERJ145 Assembly


Tianjin

Shanghai

Xi’An

Chengdu

nacelle components

Precision sheet metal

Composites manufacturing

COMAC C919 Production

Design & Production of ECS

Autoclaved composite parts

Engine parts

Landing gear components

Nanjing

Suzhou

Xiamen

Source: AeroStrategy, 2010

Sensors, valves, nozzles

38 New Airports … USD46 billion Investment by 2020

Number of Airports in China

139 133 142

186

224

150

200

250

20% Increase

And also: … Developing Country’s entire Aviation InfrastructureN

um

be

r o

f A

irp

ort

s


110

-

50

100

Source: EIU, Center fro Asia Pacific Aviation

Nu

mb

er

of A

irp

ort

s

Investment in New

Airports USD18 bn USD39 bn USD46 bn

Table of Contents

♦ Preface

♦ Foreign Investment: Strategic Deployment in World’s Fastest Growing Market

- Today’s Burning Corporate Platform: Markets and Global Cost Reduction

- 1. Revenue Drivers: Growth driver for the Aerospace Sector

- 1. Economic Growth: World Bank Projects China as #1 Economy in World by 2020

- 1. Travel Growth: Growth Spike in China’s International Travel

- 1. Tomorrow’s Market: Huge Demand Surge for Future New Aircraft

- 2. Cost Reduction: Airbus Moves Final Assembly of A320’s to China & Strategic Sourcing

- 2. Resources: Boeing NO Aircraft Assembly … Aggressive Sourcing

- 2. Resources: China Aggressively Developing own Civil Aircraft


- 2. Resources: China Aggressively Developing own Civil Aircraft

- 2. Resources: Why Initial Focus on Single-Aisle & Regional Jets?

- 3. Innovation (Stage 1): Development of a Regional Jets

- 3. Innovation (Stage 2): Development of Single-Aisle Jets

- 3. Innovation: Investment Directed at Aviation Clusters

- 3. Innovation: Investment Largely Aligned with AVIC Subsidiaries

- The 2030 Future? How Soon China’s Twin-Aisle and Jumbo Jets?…

♦ China’s Economic Health

- Senior Executives Select China as Most Attractive in World

- Foreign Investment Continues to soar – Strong Vote of Confidence

- Healthy Balance Sheets – Banks, Enterprises, Households

Foreign Investment: Strategic Deployment in World’s Fastest Growing Market


Today’s Burning Platform: Markets and Global Cost Reduction

Market Access/Revenue Growth … Global Structural’ Cost Reduction

R&D Sales

ServiceEngineering IT HR

3. Knowledge 1. Markets


2. Resources

COST

Sourcing

Production /Assembly

Distribution

F&A Procure

DRIVING Shareholder Value

Markets /

Revenues

Resources/

Cost Reduction

Innovation/

Knowledge

Efficiency/

Shared Services

EFFICIENCY

1. Revenue Drivers: Growth drivers for the Aerospace Sector

Economic Growth �� Travel Demand�� Industry Infrastructure��

� Economic Growth

- China’s economy has doubled every 7 years for the past 20 years … tripled most recently

- World Bank has forecasted China to have world’s largest economy by 2020 (GDP, PPP-adjusted)

- China Middle Class growing by an additional 80 million people every 5 years

� Travel Growth

14Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Public Sources

� Travel Growth

- China’s traffic volume grew at a CAGR of11.8% between1995 and 2009

- China to have an increase in travel volume by 167 million travelers by 2020

� Industry Infrastructure and Cluster Formation

- China aggressively developing travel infrastructure: 38 New Airports, USD46 billion Investment by 2020

- China aggressively developing aviation industry through joint venture partnerships with major foreign

suppliers and aerospace OEMs

1. Economic Growth: World Bank Projects China as #1 Economy

2020 GDP*

US

India

China

Japan

EU-27

France

UK

Germany

GDP* PPP-adjusted

15Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: World Bank

$30.0 tr$13.4 tr$28.8 tr $6.8 tr$29.6 tr

2009 GDP*

6,4 trillionsde $

3,6 trillionsde $

$4.1 tr $3.8 tr$9.1 tr $14.2 tr

US China

India

$14.1 tr

JapanJapan

EU-27

France

UK

Germany

GDP* PPP-adjusted

China World’s 3rd Highest Traffic Volume by 2020

175

200

225

250

Outbound, Chinese Inbound, Foreign

Foreign Inbound & Chinese Outbound Travel Volume

1. Travel Growth: Growth Spike in China’s International Travel

237

167 million Traveler Increase

US

D m

illio

ns


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1321

51

CAGR 11.8%69

US

D m

illio

ns

Source: China National Tourism Association (CTNA); World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

1. Tomorrow’s Market: Huge Demand Surge for Future New AircraftD

eliv

eri

es (

un

its)

Aircraft Deliveries (2009 – 2028)

3,165

4,000

5,000

China has 1,315 Aircraft Today … China Needs 3,165 New Aircraft by 2028


De

live

rie

s (

un

its)

3,165

-

1,000

2,000

3,000


Source: EIU, China Statistical Yearbook; Orient Aviation

2. Cost Reduction– Airbus Moves Final Assembly of A320’s to China

Migration of Assembly Functions to China

Company: Airbus

Total Investment:

• USD1.2 - 1.5 billion

Labor Force

• 1,000 employees

Functions:

• Final Assembly for A320


Final Assembly for A320

Investment Site and Joint Venture Partners:

• Tianjin. Three-party joint venture with Tianjin Free Trade Zone and Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).

Operational Commencement

• September 2008

2010 Production Output/Sales

• 37 A320 planes for eight Chinese airlines

2011 Assembly (Planned)

• 36 A320 planes

Source: All Publically Available Information; Tianjin Economic Development Area (TEDA), Company Website

ShenyangShenyang

Aircraft

Industries

Shaanxi

Airbus Strategic Sourcing in China*

Harbin

Aircraft

IndustriesHong Yuan Aviation Forging & Casting•Titanium forging parts

Xi’an Aircraft Industry Company•Access doors for wide-bodied aircraft•Wing fixed trailing edges•Medium air ducts

Hafei Aviation Industry Co., Ltd.•HTP leading edge ribs and torsion box

Shenyang Aircraft Company•Produces and assembles emergency exit doors

2. Resources: Airbus also engaging in Strategic Sourcing in China

Harbin

19Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Airbus S.A.S., “Airbus in China;” Airbus S.A.S., “ Airbus in China: Milestones”

ShanghaiXi’an

Chengdu

Xi’an

Aircraft

CompanyChengdu

Aircraft

Company

Shanghai

Aviation

Industry Co.

Hanzhong

Shaanxi

Aircraft

Company

Hongdu

Aviation

Industry

Nanchang

Changhe

Aircraft

Company

Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Company•A320 rear passenger doors

exit doors•Manufactures:

-Fixed leading wing edges and ribs-A320 cargo doors-Skin plates

* July 2007

Guizhou

Guizhou Aviation Industrial Group•Maintenance jigs and tools

Beijing

Shenyang

Boeing Strategic Sourcing in China*

Harbin

Aircraft

IndustriesBaoji Group Ltd.•Titanium ingot, plate & sheet

Hong Yuan Aviation Forging & Casting Industry Company•747 titanium forgings since 1984

Xi’an Aircraft Company•737 Next Generation vertical fin

BHA Aero Composites Company, Ltd.•737 composite panels and parts (flight deck, close out panels, dorsal fin, wing – to – body fairing, cover panels, wing fixed trailing edge, wing fixed leading edge, tail cone, interior

Hafei Aircraft Industries787 upper and lower body panels for wing-to-body fairings, single source; vertical fin parts

Shenyang Aircraft Company•737 aft fuselage subassemblies•787 vertical fin leading edge, single source

Quick Electronics•Print hardware, servers in support of Boeing IT hardware

2. Resources: Boeing no Aircraft Assembly … Aggressive Sourcing

Shenyang

Aircraft

Industries

Shaanxi


ShanghaiXi’an

Chengdu

Shanghai

Aviation

Industry Co.

Hanzhong

Hongdu

Aviation

Industry

Nanchang

JingdezhenChanghe

Aircraft

Company

•737 Next Generation vertical fin•747 trailing edge ribs, floor beams, detailed parts, and subassemblies•747-8 trailing edge flaps

Chengdu Aircraft Industries•737 forward entry and over-wing exit doors (a subcontract from Vought Aerospace, USA)•747-8 ailerons and spoilers, single source; horizontal stabilizer parts and subassemblies (a subcontract from Vought Aerospace, USA)•787 rudder, single source (sole provider of this assembly)

Southwest Aluminum•747 aluminum forgings

Taikoo Aircraft Engineering Company Ltd. (TAECO)•747 parts, subassemblies•747 boeing converted Freighter modification program

fixed leading edge, tail cone, interior parts, secondary composite structures)•747 miscellaneous composite parts and structures•767 and 777 wing fixed tailing edges and dry bay barriers; empennage panels, interior parts, secondary composite structures•777 flight deck interior panels•787 trailing edge panels for the vertical fin, interior parts, secondary composite structures

Shanghai Aviation Industry Company•737 horizontal stabilizers

Tianjin

Chongqing

Xiamen

* June 2007

Source: Boeing, “About us: Boeing in China.”

Shaanxi

Aircraft

Company

Chengdu

Aircraft

Company

Xi’an

Aircraft

Company

2. Resources: China Aggressively Developing own Civil Aircraft

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (2013): C-series• Aircraft Type110/130 , Single-aisle - Twin-Turbofan

2013



2010

Stage 1 – Regional Jet (2010): MA 700• Aircraft Type: 60- 70 seats • Development: Xian Aircraft Corporation• Schedule: Launch 2009 and in-service 2015

2015

21Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Chinese Aerospace Market Research

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (2016): C919• Aircraft Type: Single-Aisle Narrow Body (156 Seat, 168 Seat and 180 Seat)• Development: COMAC and joint ventures with foreign suppliers to jointly research and


2016

• Aircraft Type110/130 , Single-aisle - Twin-Turbofan• Development: : Fuselage Build by AVIC’s, Shenyang Aircraft Industries Group ,

Bombardier • Schedule: First Flight in 2011 and In- Service in 2013

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (201X): CS2010• Aircraft Type: 150-200 Seat- Single-aisle - Twin Turbofan• Development: Guangdong Prosperous Airline• Schedule: First Flight in 20xx and In- Service in 20xx

20XX

2. Resources: Why China’s Focus on Single-Aisle & Regional Jets?

Future Global Aircraft Deliveries (2009 – 2028)

China’s 3,165 New Aircraft = 12% of Future Global Demand

Twin-Aisle , 6,250

China % of FutureAircraft Demand

(2009 – 2028)

Global Demand 26,500

China Portion 3,165

China = 12% of Global Demand

22Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Airbus, “Airbus Global Market Forecast, von Tronchin, March 2010, other Public Sources

Single-Aisle , 16,977

Regional Jet, 1,500

Large Aircraft, 1,729

26,500 New Aircraft

by 2028

Suppliers for China’s ARJ21

3. Innovation (Stage 1): Tied to Development of Regional Jets

2010: ARJ21 Largely Based on Foreign Research & Development

ARJ21

BE Aerospace Oxygen Equipment

Eaton Aerospace Flight Deck Panel Assemblies

Fisher Advanced Composites Interior Components

General Electric Engines

Goodrich Hella Aerospace Lighting Equipment

Hamilton Sundstrand Electric Power System


ROSEMOUNT AEROSPACE

ARJ21

Honeywell Primary Flight Control

Kidde Aerospace Fire Protection

Liebherr AMS, Landing Gear

MPC Products Corporation Auxiliary Power Unit Door System

Parker Aerospace Fuel, Hydraulic, Flight Controls

Rockwell Collins Avionics

Rosemount Aerospace Wiper System, Windshield Heater System

Sagem Flight Deck Control Suite

Saint Gobain Windshields and Window Openers

Vibro-Meter Engine Interface Control System

Zodiac-Air Cruisers Crew Seats

Source: Baidu Encyclopedia, Various Public Sources

Suppliers for China’s C919

3. Innovation (Stage 2): Tied to Development of Single-Aisle Jets

2016: C919 Largely Based on Joint Sino-Foreign Research & Development

Liebherr Oxygen Equipment

Parker Flight Deck Panel Assemblies

Rockwell Collins Interior Components

CFM International Engines

Eaton Corporation Lighting Equipment C919

24Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Airframers, January 2011; Various Public Sources

Eaton Corporation Lighting Equipment

Hamilton Sundstrand Electric Power System

Eaton Corporation Primary Flight Control

Kidde Aerospace Fire Protection

Liebherr AMS, Landing Gear

Honeywell Auxiliary Power Unit Door System

Parker Aerospace Fuel, Hydraulic, Flight Controls

Rockwell Collins Avionics

Eaton Corporation Flight Deck Control Suite

Albany Engineered

CompositeEngine Interface Control System

C919

Beijing

Harbin

Shenyang

3. Innovation: Investment Directed at Aviation Clusters

Investment Footprint largely aligned with China Aviation Structure/Clusters

Turbine NGVs, turbine rings, compressor seals

Landing gear & engine nacelle components

A350 composite parts

Heat shields

A320 Final Assembly Line

EC175 design & production

ERJ145 Assembly


Tianjin

Shanghai

Xi’An

Chengdu

nacelle components

Precision sheet metal

Composites manufacturing

COMAC C919 Production

Design & Production of ECS

Autoclaved composite parts

Engine parts

Landing gear components

Nanjing

Suzhou

Xiamen

Source: AeroStrategy, 2010

Sensors, valves, nozzles

ShenyangShenyang

Aircraft

Industries

Shaanxi

Strong Manufacturing … Institutional Support … Labor Arbitrage

Structure of China’s Aviation SectorAviation Industry Corporation of China

(AVIC)

3. Innovation: Investment Largely Aligned with AVIC Subsidiaries

Harbin

Aircraft

Industries Harbin

26Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: Xinhua, “Aviation Industry Corporation of China Founded”

ShanghaiXi’an

Chengdu

Xi’an

Aircraft

CompanyChengdu

Aircraft

Company

Shanghai

Aviation

Industry Co.

Hanzhong

Shaanxi

Aircraft

Company

Hongdu

Aviation

Industry

Nanchang

JingdezhenChanghe

Aircraft

Company

China’s Future Aircraft (2020 – 2030)

The 2030 Future? How Soon China’s Twin-Aisle and Jumbo Jets …

Develop Homegrown China Aircraft –> Compete with Boeing, Airbus, Embraer



2010

Stage 2 – Single Aisle (2016): C919• Aircraft Type: Single-Aisle Narrow Body (156 Seat, 168 Seat and 180 Seat)

2016


Stage 3 – Twin-Aisle (2020 – 2025)?: C919 – Extensions? • Aircraft Type: Extensions of C919, possible Twin-Aisle version• Development: : COMAC and joint ventures with foreign suppliers to jointly research and

develop the platform systems• In- Service: 2020 - 2025

?

Stage 4 – Jumbo Jets (2020 – 2025)?: ?• Aircraft Type: Jumbo Jet• Development: COMAC and joint ventures with local domestic suppliers to jointly

research and develop the platform systems

• In- Service: 2020 – 2030

?

2020?

2020?

Source: Chinese Aerospace Market Research

• Aircraft Type: Single-Aisle Narrow Body (156 Seat, 168 Seat and 180 Seat)• Development: COMAC and joint ventures with foreign suppliers to jointly research and


China’s Economic Health


Senior Executives Select China as Most Attractive in World

Investor Confidence in China #1 in World

40

50

60

Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011)

%

Perc

ent of

Responses


0

10

20

30

Ch

ina

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Ru

ssia

U.K

.

Ge

rma

ny

Au

str

alia

Ind

on

esia

Ca

na

da

Vie

tna

m

Me

xic

o

Po

lan

d

Fra

nce

Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011

Perc

ent of

Responses

Foreign Investment Continues to Soar – Strong Vote of Confidence

Record FDI of USD106 billion in 2010

80

100

120

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010)

30Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Source: China Statistical Yearbook

0

20

40

60

80

US

D b

illio

n

Healthy Balance Sheets – Banks, Enterprises, Households

USD2.85 trillion in Foreign Reserves … Insulation of Financial System … Clean Balance Sheets

� China’s Financial System Healthy, Benefits from Insulation, Abundant Liquidity

� China banks cleaned up in 1990s: Non-performing loans in 1997 averaged 40 – 50%; only 6% in 2007.

� Financial institutions extended approximately USD1.4 tr in new loans in 2009; almost double that of 2008; and USD1.2 tr in 2010, slightly down from 2009.

� Forex Reserves Achieve Record High in 2010: USD 2.85 trillion


� The Central Bank has accumulated over USD 2.85 trillion in foreign reserves.

� The accumulation of large external surpluses means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.

� Clean Balance Sheets for Enterprises and Households

� State Owned Enterprise net profits as share of GDP has grown from (-1%) in 1997 to (+4.3%) in 2007.

� Record corporate profit growth over past 5 years (industrial profits rose 38 ppa); liability ratios declined.

� Urban incomes have nearly doubled in past 10 years.

Source: Deutsche Bank; Standard Chartered; UBS; IMF; Other

Global Consulting & Transaction Advisory


Transaction Advisory

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Challenging Boeing & Airbus – China’s Most Ambitious Strategy to Date?

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