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The 31st Ralph Melville Memorial Lecture, delivered at the 2013 AGM on27 November 2013

Challenges of the 21st Century

Sir John Beddington was UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA) from 2008-2013. During histenure he highlighted the linked problems of food, water and energy security in the context of mitigatingand adapting to climate change. He supervised the development of the Foresight report on the Future ofFood and Farming which was widely quoted, and he continues to work in the field. In 2011 he chaired anInternational Commission on Agriculture and Climate Change and recently took on the Co-Chairmanshipof an International Commission on Agriculture and Nutrition. He is an adviser to the Oxford Martin Schooland amongst other activities is a Non-Executive Director of the UK Meteorological Office.

Dr Elizabeth Warham provided advice and support on food and water security issues to John during his tenure as GCSAin the Government Office for Science. This included publication of the UK Cross-Government Strategy for Food Researchand Innovation, and promoting improved co-ordination and coherence of public and private funded research throughthe establishment of the Food Research Partnership, the UK Water Research and Innovation Partnership, and the Horticulture Innovation Partnership. In addition, she contributed to the establishment and success of an InternationalCommission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, chaired by John, which identified practical policy actionsfor policy makers worldwide.

SummaryIn many ways, the next twenty years are already determined.The global community will have to contend with a number ofsignificant challenges, including urbanisation, climate change,competition for resources, and changing dietary habits. Meetingthese challenges will require alternative choices for farmers toincrease productivity on-farm, which are more resilient to climate change, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystemsservices. This in turn will require more effective agriculturalresearch investments to help farmers make these choices withnew technologies, best practice and knowledge. Also, systemswill be needed to encourage private enterprise and improvedaccess to markets (particularly in developing countries).

Early warningGlobal food security warnings were highlighted early in 2008,as food prices rose, and were thought to be as serious as climate change, but with the risk of having an earlier impact.Pressures from population growth and increasing affluencewere considered likely to increase demand, outstripping theworld’s ability to produce sufficient, accessible, and affordablefood for all (Foresight, 2011a).

PovertyA significant proportion of humanity remains chronically undernourished, even during periods of relatively normal foodprices and low volatility. Before the food price spike in 2008, povertymeant that 800 million people were hungry, but after the food pricespike, this number increased to a little over 1 billion people. Thisrise significantly set back progress towards the UN Millennium De-velopment Goal to halve the proportion of people suffering hunger

between 1990 and 2015. Figure 1 shows the number of individualsliving below the international poverty line of USD $1.25 a day, fig-ures rounded to the nearest million. The 2015 numbers are fore-casts and for a number of countries the scale of improvement isindicative of the number of people clustered around the poverty lineused in the figure (Chandy & Gertz, 2011).

ProsperityGlobal consumption of food will increase with prosperity. Thedilemma is that taking people out of poverty increases consumption, further increasing demand for resources. The ‘Middle Class’ is defined as those households with daily ex-penditures of between US$10 and US$100 per person. The size ofthe middle class population in 2009 and projections for 2030 inglobal regions are the following: Europe (664m; 680m); MiddleEast and Africa (137m; 341m); Asia Pacific (525m; 3228m); NorthAmerica (338m; 322m); and Central and South America (181m;313m) (Australian Government, 2012).

The Perfect StormIn the context of climate change, the increasing populationand levels of urbanisation, along with the laudable goal to alleviate poverty, are likely to lead to the Perfect Storm (Beddington, 2009). Projections suggest that by 2030 demandfor food, water, and energy will increase by 40 percent, 30 percent and 40 percent respectively (FAO, 2010; OECD, 2008).

Approximately 925 million people go hungry, with around 1billion people suffering from ‘hidden hunger’. For example, adiet high in rice with few vegetables renders people susceptibleto vitamin A deficiency, prevalent in 100 to 140 million children worldwide. An estimated 250,000 to 500,000 vitaminA-deficient children become blind every year, half of them

Sir John Beddington and Elizabeth Warham

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dying within 12 months of losing their sight (WHO, 2006).

Currently, 1.2 billion people live in areas affected by physicalwater scarcity, 1.6 billion people live in areas affected by economic water scarcity, and 884 million people lack access toclean water.

Currently, 1.4 billion people do not have sufficient electricity,and it is estimated that by 2030, 1.2 billion people will still lackaccess to electricity.

Managing demand for food is a clear priority, and will involvereducing waste by eliminating the estimated 30 percent of foodproduced but never consumed. This will require informing andempowering consumers, providing simple and consistent information, societal consensus, and using a strong evidencebase.

Expanding citiesUrbanisation will have a significant impact, with developingcountries building the equivalent of a city of one million peopleevery five days between now and 2025. For example, in Africa,by 2050, an additional 800 million people are predicted to beliving in cities (62 percent of the population) (Figure 2). Theseurban populations are more vulnerable to shocks, both fromnatural hazards, as well as the supply of food and utilities.

A changing climateThe world is warming, with global average rises in temperature,atmospheric carbon dioxide, and sea level, and a reduction inarctic sea-ice extent. Projections suggest that current pledges(through the UN Climate Change Commitments and the Kyoto

Figure 1. The Changing Global Poverty Landscape: Numbers of millions living on less than $1.25 per day (Source: Chandy & Gertz, 2011).

Figure 2. Projected urban populations for 2025 (The Brookings Institution, 2011).

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Protocol) to restrict increases in global average surface temperatures to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels, will be exceeded (World Bank / Potsdam Institute, 2012). As a result,there has been an increase in severe weather events (Figure 3),with significant economic losses. For example, the 2003 Eu-ropean heat wave (Economics of Climate Adaptation WorkingGroup, 2009), Cyclone Nargis in 2008, unprecedented summertemperatures in Texas during 2011, Horn of Africa droughts in2011 (Tavanti, 2012), Thailand floods in 2011 (Swiss Reinsur-ance Company, 2011), and Hurricane Sandy in 2012 (The NewYork Times, 2012), which have claimed lives and threatenedlivelihoods.

The food production system contributes to future climate, withchanges in key atmospheric Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissionsbetween 1900 and 2010 driven by agriculture. For example,agriculture contributes 10-12 percent of GHG emissions, andthe whole food system contributes 30 percent including landconversion from forests (Foresight, 2011b). Agriculture alsocontributes methane and nitrous oxide from animals and fertilisers.

Valuing ecosystemsIn the past, there has been a failure to recognise the value ofnatural capital to economic development, the linkages betweenfood, water and energy systems, and the importance of ecosystemservices. Of the 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on earth,

around 24 percent has undergone human induced soil degradation (Figure 4). Land degradation costs an estimated$40 billion annually worldwide, without taking into accounthidden costs of increased fertiliser use, loss of biodiversity andloss of unique landscapes (FAO, 2010). Degraded land is costlyto reclaim and, if severely degraded, may no longer recover toprovide the range of ecosystem functions and services that arecritical for society and development (Foresight, 2011c). However,in areas where very little natural habitat otherwise remains,degraded land taken out of production can assume a valuablerole in acting as a refuge for biodiversity.

The livestock sector has expanded in recent decades as demandfor meat and dairy continues to grow, with an estimated increase of 68 percent by 2030 from the 2000 base figure. Livestock production is the world’s largest user of land resources, with grazing land occupying 26 percent of the landsurface, and 33 percent of cropland is dedicated to the productionof livestock feed.

Increasing productivity sustainablyAlternative choices are needed for farmers to increase productivityon-farm which are more resilient to climate change and areclimate-smart, using improved irrigation systems, precisionfarming, fodder management, and agro-forestry (Beddingtonet al, 2012; World Bank, 2012) while maintaining biodiversityand ecosystem services (Foresight, 2011c). In addition,

Figure 3. Number of natural catastrophes 1980-2012 (Source: Munich RE, 2013).

Figure 4. Extent of areas of degraded land in the world (Source: UNEP, 1997).

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systems are needed to encourage private enterprise and improved access to markets (particularly in developing countries).

Examples already exist where this is happening. The system ofrice intensification (SRI) is designed for smallholder farmersto increase productivity by maximising management practicesnot inputs, with benefits seen in over 40 countries including100 percent increase in yield, 90 percent reduction in seed, and50 percent saving in water. In addition, methane emissions arereduced, and there are positive health impacts resulting fromlower pesticide and herbicide applications.

Investing in research for agricultureMeeting the challenges posed by land and water scarcity, climate change and declining crop yields will need substantialprogress in agricultural innovation, which in turn will requiremore effective agricultural research investments (Foresight,2011d). Global warming could occur faster than expected andadd to water shortages, hitting irrigated agriculture with loweryields and increasing risks in rainfed agriculture. In 2020, SEAsia is likely to be the most extremely water stressed region,with Africa becoming increasingly stressed (Figure 5).

Greater co-ordination will be needed globally to boost productivitywhile reducing GHG emissions by improving:

• Varieties or breeds of crops, livestock and aquatic organisms;• Diversity of agricultural systems (eg agroforestry);• Quality of feed for livestock and aquaculture;• Soil management to sequester carbon;• Complementary biological and ecosystems services

supporting agriculture (eg forest protection);• Resource (water, fertiliser) efficient practices for crops (eg

rice); and• Communication of the value and proportionate risk of new

technology (such as genetic modification).

Opportunities exist to explore plant diversity to enhance cropproduction. Currently 12 crops provide 80 percent of the plantfood consumed globally, yet 30,000+ species are known to be

edible, and 7,000 edible species are semi-domesticated, withmore than a billion people relying on such plant diversity forpart of their daily diet (Hopper, 2011).

Since 1980, the rate of increase in wheat yields in the UK hasdeclined, with the average farm yield of wheat currently 8.4tonnes per hectare (compared with the highest recorded yieldof 15.6 tonnes/ha in New Zealand in 2010). Research atRothamsted aims to provide the knowledge base and tools toincrease the UK wheat yield potential to 20 tonnes/ha through:genotype improvement, mitigation of pests and diseases,soil/root interactions for better water and nutrient acquisition,and understanding physiological and environmental interactions.One project is transforming wheat to emit the aphid alarmpheromone – a natural insect repellent. This reduces chemicalpesticide use, is non-toxic, has a lower carbon footprint, repelsrather than kills the aphids, promotes biodiversity (thepheromone attracts natural predators), uses a naturally occurringprocess, increases wheat yields, and therefore provides moresustainable agriculture (see Ag4Dev18:43-44).

ConclusionsIn many ways, the next twenty years are already determined.The global community will have to contend with a number ofsignificant challenges, including climate change (GHGs nowin the atmosphere are likely to drive changes up to 2030); anextra billion people are projected by 2025; and the urban population, already exceeding the rural population in 2010, islikely to increase to approximately 56 percent of total populationby 2025.

In 2050, the world is likely to be more prosperous with complexdemographic trends, including 2.3 billion more people worldwide, 70 percent of the total population living in urbanareas, and more migration to vulnerable areas at enhanced riskfrom climate change (Foresight, 2011e). It is these complexdemographic futures which will affect food security outcomes,and to which agriculture will have to respond, by increasingproductivity on the same amount of land, with less impact on

Figure 5. 2020 Water Stress: Rate of Change (Source: WWF, undated)

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the environment.

Adapting agriculture to be more resilient to the challenge ofclimate change, and competition for resources (land, water,and energy) will require investment in research to developtechnologies, best practice and knowledge, which farmers canuse to increase productivity, while maintaining biodiversityand ecosystem services. At the same time, systems will beneeded to encourage private enterprise, and to strengthen access to markets.

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