Challenges of statistics on international

migration in the CIS region

Olga Chudinovskikh,

Lomonosov Moscow State University /

Higher School of economics

High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries

UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of RussiaGelendzhik, 16-18 October 2013

Positive trends of the latest decade Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region

and its reflection in statistics Producers and main types of data – a

system, but not separate elements Main challenges in the sphere of statistics

on migration through the prism of statistics on permanent-type and temporary labour migration

Concluding remarks

Overview

1. Development of migration modules in the questionnaires used at the recent censuses

2. Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of data related to migration (level of development and interactions may differ)

3. More sources are involved into data processing and exchange at the national level (depending on financial support and political will of data producers).

4. More data are published , access to statistics becomes easier (including microdata). Diversification of published statistics.

5. Development of mutual understanding between national statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting data on migration and related events

Positive trends of the last decade

Agencies responsible for populaiton registration, migration and citizenship

National statistical

agency

Border service

Ministry of education

MFA

Foreign students: enrollment, stock and graduates

Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates

Data on entries and exits by countries, purposes and types of transport

Censuses

•Work permits •Asylum•Residence permits•Citizenship •Administrative practices ets.

Data on labour migration

Data for statistics of flows

Data on refugees and IDPs

“Current” registration of flows

Data on repatriants

Labour force and living standards surveys

Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national level in the CIS states

4

Other agencies

Data that were the subject of analysis characterized

1) permanent-type migration –• censuses of the recent round • annual (current) statistics of flows 2) labour migration (mainly temporary),

Including available data of different surveys, censuses , administrative data of migration authorities and expert estimates

Personal experience: an attempt to analyze a general image of migration process in the CIS region

Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of the former USSR, mainly these people represent “old” generations.

Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian region (mainly – of working ages)

“Foreign born” population step by step started to represent real international migration (not “statistical” foreign born that was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR).

People born in a certain country and having its citizenship differ by country and comparing to each other.

Some examples:

What did the recent censuses show?

Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Russia by country of birth (times)

Armen

ia

Azerb

aija

n

Belar

us

Georg

ia

Kazak

hsta

n

Kyrgy

zsta

n

Mol

dova

Tajik

ista

n

Turk

men

ista

n

Ukrai

ne

Uzbek

ista

n

Born

in C

IS cou

ntrie

s

Born

in o

ther

cou

ntrie

s 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1.10.9 0.8

0.7

1.0

1.21.0

1.21.0

0.8

1.2

0.9 1.0

Russia

2010 to 2002 2002 to 19892010 to 1989

Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Kazakhstan by country of birth (times)

Armen

ia

Azerb

aija

n

Belar

us

Georg

ia

Kyrgy

zsta

n

Moldo

va

Russia

Tajik

istan

Turk

men

istan

Ukrai

ne

Uzbek

istan

Born

in C

IS cou

ntrie

s

Born

in o

ther

cou

ntrie

s 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0.8 0.8

0.5 0.6

1.1

0.6 0.6

0.9

1.7

0.6

2.8

0.8

1.2 1999 to 19892009 to 1999 2009 to 1989

Dynamics of foreign population in Kazakhstan and Russia between the censuses of 2000 and 2010 rounds (times)

Total resident population

RK citizens

Foreign population total

CIS and Georgia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Other

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1.07

1.07

1.19

1.6

1.59

2.64

2.44

1.38

5.53

1.11

0.88

2.85

6.96

1.37

8.7

0.5

Kazakhstan 2009/1999

Total popualtion

RF citizens

Foreigners total

CIS

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Other

Stateless

Not identified

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

0.98

0.97

0.67

0.64

0.44

0.43

0.69

0.23

0.40

1.55

0.66

1.36

0.88

1.85

0.41

0.81

0.41

3.26

Russia 2010/2002

BelarusBorn Citizens

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

100 50 0 50 100 150

0.6

1.2

2.2

6.6

12.5

15.6

17.1

19.9

23.9

31.1

37.4

36.3

35.3

21.1

59.0

0.6

1.2

2.1

6.0

11.7

14.8

16.1

18.4

24.5

34.4

43.2

45.5

51.3

34.9

116.7

females Be-larus

males Be-larus

0 - 4

5 – 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

3 2 1 0 1 2

0.3

0.3

0.3

1.2

2.1

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.8

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.8

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0Belarus females

Belarus males

TajikistanBorn Citizens

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0

2.2

4.0

6.0

16.3

36.5

37.8

36.7

34.6

27.7

22.6

17.0

12.3

7.5

2.9

3.9

2.0

3.6

4.9

9.6

19.5

20.6

21.5

21.4

16.9

16.3

14.4

13.7

9.0

4.0

7.0

males Tajikistanfemales Tajikistan

0 - 4

5 – 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4

1.3

1.3

1.3

5.4

13.7

13.0

11.0

8.6

6.2

3.7

2.0

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.3

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.3

1.6

0.9

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1Tajikistan females

Tajikistan males

TurkeyBorn Citizens

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0 500.0

174.0

170.0

144.0

115.0

585.0

1,109.0

1,228.0

1,241.0

1,096.0

786.0

480.0

262.0

174.0

100.0

168.0

190

140

151

52

100

86

66

68

66

140

248

227

165

122

271

females Turkey

males Turkey

0 - 4

5 – 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70+

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200

53.0

29.0

25.0

79.0

477.0

952.0

975.0

882.0

748.0

499.0

196.0

61.0

29.0

6.0

6.0

36

26

19

22

59

65

47

42

26

21

9

5

3

3

0

Turkey females

Turkey males

CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space Migration is very selective Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the

biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country,

Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive net-migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus).

After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan-Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);

What did analysis of flows data show?

Prevalence of movement within the area (permanent type migration) 2000-2010 % of immigrants from / emigrants to the other CIS state

Moldova

Armenia

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Russian Federation

Azerbaijan

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

52.2

67.9

83.0

86.3

86.6

95.1

96.0

97.3

97.8

99.4

47.8

32.1

17.0

13.7

13.4

4.9

4.0

2.7

2.2

0.6

Total share of immigrants from CIS From countries outside CIS

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Belarus

Moldova

Kazakhstan

Armenia

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

54.7

61.5

65.4

70.4

77.0

77.6

90.3

95.7

96.8

99.7

45.3

38.5

34.6

29.6

23.0

22.4

9.7

4.3

3.2

0.3

Total share of emigrants to CIS To the countries outside CIS

Permanent Net Migration in CIS countries, 2000-2010 (in 1000’s)

Data of the national statistical office of :

ARM AZ BEL KAZ KYRG MOLD RUS TAJ TURK UKR UZB

ARM 0 0 2 1 0 0 168 0 0 11 0

AZER -4 0 3 2 0 0 111 0 -1 9 0

BEL -1  -1 0 -11 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 -9 -2

GEOR 1 2 2 1 0 0 83 0 0 9 0

KAZ -1 -1 15 0 -34 0 423 -4 -28 16 -217

KYRGYS 0 0 1 19 0 0 171 -7 0 3 -1

MOLD 0 0 3 0 0 0 100 0 0 30 0

RUS -56 -18 39 -395 -290 -26 0 -73 -56 -52 -290

TAJ 0 0 1 3 4 0 119 0 0 2 4

TURK 0 1 2 32 0 0 46 0 0 3 0

UKR -3 -1 20 -4 -2 -20 263 -2 -1 0 -17

UZB 0 1 4 274 -1 0 343 -8 -1 30 0

CIS -64 -16 92 -77 -324 -46 1821 -94 -88 51 -523

TOTAL -76 -16 77 -173 -340 -55 1566 -94 -90 -75 -584

Implementation of “mirror” statistics sometimes is not successful without knowledge of methodology changes and practices of data collection

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Эмиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (АзСтат ) Left from Azerbaijan to the RF (Azstat)

Иммиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (Росстат) Arrived from Azerbaijan to RF (Rosstat)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Эмиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Росстат) Left from the RF to Azerbaijan (Rosstat)

Иммиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Азстат) Arrived from the RF to Azerbaijan (Azstat)

Discrepancies in data on flows lead to a statistical phenomenon – pairs of countries have positive net migration in mutual migration exchange (Ukraine, Belarus and Russia)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Net migration RB data

Net migration RF data

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Net migration RB data

Net migration Ukr. data

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Net migration Ukr. data Net migration RF data

Temporary labour migration in the CIS area: Main characteristics

“Asymmetry” of roles: mainly sending or mainly receiving states

Major part of workers move to the RF and partially – to Kazakhstan , migrants from the European countries of the CIS much more often chose the countries of the other part of the world.

Most part of migrants are undocumented

Temporary forms are prevailing Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus

mainly come from the CIS area, while the other countries invite skilled workers from the other part of the world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%, Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%)

CIS nationals are rare among highly skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )

Временная трудовая миграция: разброс оценок и малая сопоставимость данных стран-партнеров

Volume Countries of Destinations

Sources:

Armenia 80 th. Russia (95%) Migration Service, 2010

Azerbaijan More 100 th

Russia (more 80%) Estimation based on Russian data, 2011

Kyrgyzstan 250-300 th Russia (80-85%), Kazakhstan (15%)

Population Census, 2009

Moldova 300 th. Russia (60%), EU (30%)

Labor Force Survey, 2009-2010

Tajikistan 430 th Russia (95%-98%) Households Survey, 2008

Ukraine 1.5 mln Russia (48,1%), Italy (13.4%), Czech Rep. (11.9%)

Ukrainian External Labor Migration. National survey 2005-2008.

Uzbekistan > 1 mln Russia (60%-70%%) Kazakhstan (25%-30%%)

Estimation based on Russian and Kazakhstan data, 2011

Compilation of data from different sources may show the scale of irregular labour migration

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

574.0

646.3677.4

736.4 750.1

195.1213.0

171.2134.0

199.6168.8

267.3

Migr. Cards RT (esti-mate 95% of total out-flow)Work permits isseud in RF for RT citizens Patents sold to RT cit-izens

2006 2008 20090.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Work permits issued for KR cit-izens in Russia KR household survey data (s-tock of nationals abroad)

Survey data (Kyrgyzstan) on absent population compared with the Federal Migr. Service of Russia data on issued work permits

Migration cards (Tajikistan) and FMS data on issued work permits

Alternatives to traditional “statistical” data sources (data on residence permits can partly substitute statistics of immigration flows)

Admin. Data on work permits can be the main (if not the only) source of information on labour migration

IT development = growing importance of administrative data

Caution: fluctuations in admin. data should be treated with care. Temporary residence permits issued in Russia (thousand)

Ukraine

Armenia

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

Moldova

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000

201220112010

Rapid increase in numbers for RK and KR are caused by the changes in legislation on citizenship. Before 2011 these migrants could apply for the RF citizenship without any additional status and did not need residence permit

Seems to not realistic so far Even annual statistics of flows shows

considerable discrepancies Solution: comprehensive metadata Competent users An intermediary agency that collects,

harmonizes and publishes data from different states

Is it possible to harmonize definitions and

methodologies in statistics of migration ?

A deadlock or a stimulus for joint efforts? Political decisions are usually based on

data produced by national stat. agency If data are not good or interpreted

incorrectly - decisions are not efficient Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather

close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours

Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя» , вне зависимости от страны , где произведена

Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers Censuses – questions about absent population should not

limit time of absence (up to 5 hears)

Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology and questionnaires, to create a joint database

Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data related to migration and its consequences

Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency

with international (regional) mandate .

! To treat sources and data as a system, not as separate elements

Concluding remarksWhat can we do?

Благодарю за внимание!

Thank you for your attention!

Распределение мигрантов, зарегистрированных

по месту пребывания , по срокам

International Internal 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

33.5

16.8

19.3

31.3

29.5

14.5

7.6

18.2

7.4

6.8

2.7

12.3

5+4 years 3 years 2 years 1 year 9 months- one year