May 23, 2006

Document of the World Bank

Report No. 36145-SZ

SwazilandAchieving Basic Education For AllChallenges and Policy Directions

(In Two Volumes) Volume I: Executive Summary

Human Development IAfrica Region

Report N

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azilandA

chieving Basic Education For A

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Table o f Contents

S ~ M A R Y ......................................................................................................... 5

I . WHERE I S SWAZILAND RELATIVE TO THE EFA GOAL? .............................. 8

C . Where i s Swaziland from the EFAgoal? ...................................................................... 9

A . What i s the EFA goal in Swaziland? ........................................................................... 8 B . Why i s EFA a priori ty in Swaziland’s development agenda? ...................................... 8

D . What factors contribute to Swaziland’s current distance from the EFA goal? .......... 11

I1 . HIWAIDS PANDEMIC I s A MAJOR THREAT TO SWAZILAND’S EFA EFFORTS ......................................................................................................... 14

A . Changing school-age population ................................................................................ 14

C . Disrupting supply ....................................................................................................... 16 D . Factors disrupting learning ........................................................................................ 16 E . Rising education costs ................................................................................................ 17 F . Education as an effective social vaccine for H IV /A IDS ............................................ 17

B . Curbing demand ......................................................................................................... 15

111 . DOMESTIC RESOURCES ARE LIMITED FOR INCREASING EDUCATION SECTOR FINANCING ....................................................................................... 18

A . Declining economic growth.. ..................................................................................... 18 B . Declining fiscal situation ............................................................................................ 19 C . Declining allocation to education ............................................................................... 20

. .

. .

I V . REFORMS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY FOR AFFORDABLE EFA ................ 20 A . Increase spending on basic education through intrasector reallocation ..................... 22 B . Improve student f low and reduce high repetition and dropout rates .......................... 23 C . Redeploy teachers. maintain minimum teaching loads. and teach more reading. writing. math and science ............................................................................................... 25 D . Improve accountability o f public resource utilization and establish adequate measures to facilitate school grants and procurement o f teaching and learning materials ........................................................................................................................................ 30

E . H o w much would EFA cost with and without key reforms to achieve better resource allocation. reduce grade repetition and achieve more efficient teacher deployment? .... 31 F . Transform basic education towards EFA goals: projections o f enrollment. teacher needs. and requirements for public resources 2006-201 5 ............................................... 34

CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 38

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List of Tables

Table 2: Comparison o f key policy indicators o f EFA on-track SSA countries and o f Swaziland 21 Table 1: Percentage o f orphans aged 0.15. 2000 and 2005 ............................................................ 15

Table 3: Key financing parameters of lower-secondary education ................................................. 22 Table 4: Staffing rules ..................................................................................................................... 27 Table 5: L i s t o f examinable subjects at the O-level ........................................................................ 29 Table 6: Summary o f direct cost estimates with and without efficiency reforms ........................... 32 Table 7: Costs as percentage o f GDP: various scenarios, 2015 ...................................................... 33 Table 8: EFA goals and policy directives for education sector planning ....................................... 34 Table 9: Primary and junior secondary school enrollment projections .......................................... 35 Table 10: Projected number o f teachers .......................................................................................... 36

List of Figures Figure 1 : Cross-country comparisons o f adult (age 15-49) HIV infection rate (2003) .................... 9

Figure 3: Cross-country comparisons o f primary completion rate ................................................. 10 Figure 4: SACMEQ results: traditional method o f using average scores ....................................... 11 Figure 5: SACMEQ results: controlled for pupil’s socioeconomic background ............................ 11

Figure 2: Grade survival 1.10. 2004 ............................................................................................... 10

Figure 6: Regional disparities in classroom and teacher availability .............................................. 13 Figure 7: Trend o f school-age population growth .......................................................................... 15 Figure 8: HIV prevalence by education category, Rural Uganda ................................................... 18

Figure 1 1 : Evolution o f PTR .......................................................................................................... 26

Figure 13: Primary and junior secondary school enrollment projections ....................................... 35

Figure 15: Primary and lower-secondary spending as percentage o f GDP .................................... 37

Figure 9: Fiscal deficit as percent o f GDP 2000-2005 ................................................................... 19 Figure 10: Trend o f education spending as % o f total public spending .......................................... 20

Figure 12: Teacher deployment: Primary level .............................................................................. 28

Figure 14: Projected number o f teachers ........................................................................................ 36

Figure 16: Projected total cost and as percentage o f projected GDP .............................................. 37

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SUMMARY 1. Education sector pol icy reforms in efficiency improvement are prerequisites to achieving and sustaining the “basic education for all” goal in Swaziland because (1) Swaziland is st i l l far from achieving the EFA goal; (2) the H IV /A IDS epidemic poses severe challenges to the education sector; (3) Swaziland i s facing tight macroeconomic and fiscal constraints and is thus unlikely to increase domestic resources significantly to the sector; (4) there are many inefficiencies and waste in the sector where resources could be better utilized.

2. education. Currently, an adult Swazi attains 7.5 years o f schooling on average. For school-age children, although there is nearly universal access to grade one, grade survival i s very l ow through the cycle. There are only about 30 percent o f primary school entrants who can achieve 10 years o f education. The quality o f the education system in Swaziland has been regarded as better than many neighboring countries based o n the most recent research results o f the Southern African Consortium for Measuring o f Education Quality. Nonetheless, the results f rom Swaziland’s national examinations indicate many areas o f poor student performance.

3. Both demand and supply side factors contribute to Swaziland’s current distance from the EFA goal. Poverty in Swaziland has led to decreased demand for education, as poverty has made basic education less affordable to households. High unemployment has also curbed the incentive for households to invest in education. These factors are supported by strong statistical results. On the supply side, regional disparities in classrooms and teacher availability reinforce demand side disparities across regions. The average distance between households and schools is also much longer in rural areas. One issue o f major concern i s teacher absenteeism in Swaziland. I t i s estimated that 10 percent o f the teachers are not at work on an average school day. Factors related to school management appear to have a strong effect on teacher absenteeism. Teachers working at government schools, and at schools that are inspected regularly are much less l ikely to be absent f rom work.

4. The HIV/AIDS pandemic continues to negatively impact demand and supply side factors that contribute to Swaziland’s distance f rom the EFA goal, and results in higher costs for basic education. H IV /A IDS makes education less affordable to households. The number o f orphans i s rapidly increasing. Orphans bear higher risks o f not being enrolled in school, dropping out o f school and being used as chi ld labor. H IV /A IDS also has a negative effect o n educators and on the systems and institutions responsible for providing educational services. The overall teacher mortality rate does not appear to be very high in Swaziland, however, the situation bears closer monitoring for future trends. What seems a bigger concern about Swazi teachers is the potential effect o n teaching performance due to illness. Cost for adequate service delivery will increase owing to the increased need for supporting teachers and pupils. There is also an increased need to extend H IV /A IDS knowledge and to strengthen l i fe skills education which would require additional resources. The urgency o f mitigating the impact o f HIV/AIDS and universalizing 10 years o f basic education in a country such as

Swaziland i s s t i l l far f rom the EFA goal o f universal completion o f 10-year basic

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Swaziland is justified by the empirical evidence that education i s an effective social vaccine for the pandemic.

5. Current unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in the country have constrained domestic resources in the education sector. Economic growth i s persistently slow at 0.9% and l ikely to rise only to 2.5%, and the fiscal deficit i s widening. The pol icy decision to pass an oversized and escalating wage has seriously reduced the finds available to other areas in public spending. The overall deteriorating fiscal condition has led to the decline o f budgetary allocation to education. education declined from over 25 percent o f total public spending in 1999/2000 to below 2 1 percent in 2004/05.

6. percent by 2015, the government will have to start education pol icy reforms in order to counter the constraining factors from both demand and supply side so as to improve grade promotion and learning. Improving the efficiency o f sector spending will be key to EFA pol icy formulation.

7. First, the government needs to adjust the allocations across sub-sectors (allocative efficiency), enhance the efficiency o f and reduce subsidies to tertiary education and increase allocation to primary and lower-secondary education with a focus o n non-salary spending. Swaziland’s allocation to primary education i s significantly lower than EFA on-track countries. Only 35 percent o f total sector allocation i s spent on primary education, compared with 48 percent in EFA on-track countries. A relatively high proportion of education expenditure committed to tertiary education i s a-constraint to achieving equitable progress in the sector. Overall, despite the pol icy o f prioritizing primary education, expenditure remains heavily skewed towards tertiary education. Tertiary education accounts for less than 1 percent o f the student body, but takes up 23 percent o f the country’s education budget. By contrast, primary education accounts for 77 percent o f the students but only 35 percent o f total education expenditure.

8. Second, the government needs to reduce drop outs and repetition (internal efficiency), give students attention to help them advance and enforce the grade promotion policy. School-based continuous assessment has provided one o f the most useful tools to ensure the effectiveness o f the learning process, and i s a critical diagnostic mechanism for pol icy formulation o n quality enhancement. T o strengthen its effectiveness, there i s need to improve support to teachers to help them manage their increased tasks and to provide better guidance and training so that the continuous assessment would not simply mimic public examinations but rather provide an holistic assessment o f both cognitive and non-cognitive aspects o f students’ behavior and achievements, which in turn would better facilitate effective learning and grade promotion.

9. Third, efforts are also needed to reduce the concentration o f teachers in urban schools; solve the shortage o f math and science teachers; streamline the curriculum (technical efficiency); redeploy teachers to rural and remote areas; strengthen core subjects o f reading, writing, math and science; retrain teachers to teach core subjects or multiple subjects, and maintain minimum teaching loads.

Resource allocation to

For Swaziland to go from a 30 percent completion rate in basic education to 100

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10. (management efficiency). The highly centralized system o f public resource utilization in Swaziland leads to rigid and inefficient public pol icy implementation. In many countries, a direct allocation o f h n d s to schools to support service delivery has been effective in improving efficiency in public resource utilization. Swaziland needs to use public resources better, establish a better monitoring and evaluation system, including grants for orphans, and introduce competition in the selection and purchase o f teaching and learning materials.

1 1. 10-year universal completion o f basic education. To achieve the EFA goal, total spending for basic education would have to increase, even with reforms to address key efficiency issues. I t is estimated that 3.8 percent o f the GDP has to be allocated to basic education by 201 5, including 2.0 percent for primary education and 1.8 percent for lower-secondary education. This represents a significant increase from the 2004 level o f 2.6 percent o f the GDP. This calls for the government to further mobilize resources and some external aid may also be needed.

12. One key area pol icy makers need to take note o f is that with expansion at the secondary level, the resource allocation between the primary and lower-secondary levels will gradually be equalized. This will be mainly due to a gradual decrease in the number o f births. This i s an important fact for pol icy makers and education sector planners to note as it wil l require an adjustment o f school places, teachers, as wel l as the management o f the system.

13. other ministries i s key to the success o f the sector reforms towards achieving EFA goals. In the immediate term, M o E can start measures aimed at reducing repetition and dropout, which are the most straightforward and under the direct control o f the education sector. Teacher deployment wil l need the collaborated efforts o f other ministries such as the Ministry o f Public Service in order to improve the staffing rules and better design incentives and compensation programs for teachers. Improving management at the University o f Swaziland will be essential to reduce costs so more funds can be allocated to support basic education. T o tackle financial management and procurement issues, M o E wil l collaborate mainly with the Accountant General, the Auditor General, as wel l as the Treasury. Additional assistance in mobil izing resources will be needed from the Ministry o f Finance and the Ministry o f National Planning and Development.

Fourth, there i s need to improve financial management and public procurement

A financial model was used to project the resources needed for the achievement o f

The leadership o f the Ministry o f Education (MoE) and close collaborations with

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I. WHERE I S SWAZILAND RELATIVE TO THE EFA GOAL?

A. What i s the EFA goal in Swaziland? 14. The Swazi government defines EFA as universal completion of 10-year basic quality education. These 10 years o f basic education include the first seven years o f primary education and an additional three years o f lower-secondary education. This goal i s a step beyond the widely used EFA definition o f the primary education completion rate. Nonetheless, given that more and more developing countries are closely approaching universal completion o f primary education, the international trend has shown that Swaziland i s not alone in recognizing lower-secondary education as an integral part o f basic education. Lower-secondary education solidifies the basic literacy and numeracy acquired during the primary cycle, and paves the way for a smooth transition to advanced learning at the upper secondary level.

.B. Why i s EFA a priority in Swaziland’s development agenda? 15. Alongside its place as an intrinsically valuable measure of human welfare, education i s an important component of human capital and input to economic production, thus key to poverty reduction. Swaziland is a lower middle-income country but with 69 percent o f the population living below the poverty l ine and 37 percent o f the population living in extreme poverty - unable to meet i t s basic food requirement. The GNI per capita o f $1,660 hides a very uneven income distribution (Gini coefficient o f 0.60) where the poorest 20 percent o f the population accounted for 4.3 percent o f overall consumption while the richest 20 percent accounted for 56 percent. As elsewhere, there i s a strong correlation between level o f education o f the head o f the household and incidence o f poverty. According to data analysis from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (2000/01), households headed by college educated persons have the lowest levels o f poverty in al l regions. The opposite i s true for households headed by those with less than primary education.

16. serious socioeconomic difficulties with its continued spread (Figure 1). Swaziland’s human development index has already dropped below its level in the 70s mainly due to H IV /A IDS and shortened l i fe expectancy. International evidence shows that better educated people are quicker to obtain knowledge and practice safe measures for HIV/prevention. For example, in rural Uganda, the first annual sero-surveillance in 1990 among individuals aged 18 to 29 showed that individuals o f different education categories al l had a high HIV prevalence rate o f 14-17 percent. In 2001, the prevalence rate o f those who completed secondary education was below 2 percent, compared with as high as 12 percent for those who had no formal education. Attainment of the EFA goals is an effective social vaccine curbing the further spread of HIWAIDS.

Swaziland has now the highest adult HIV infection rate in the world and faces

8

Source: UNAIDS website, 2005

C. Where i s Swaziland from the EFAgoal? 17. Swaziland is still far from universal completion of 1 O-year basic education. Currently, an adult Swazi attains 7.5 years o f schooling on average. Although the access rates to grade one are close between rural and urban populations and reach universal completion, a much lower proportion o f the rural population reaches higher grades. The 2000 Multiple Indicators Clusters Survey (MICS) showed that 45 percent o f the urban population completes the tenth grade, compared with only 20 percent o f the rural population. The household survey carried out in the Manzini and Lubombo region in 2005 showed that although school access has improved in both regions since 2000, the education attainment profile o f young adults between ages 15 and 25 showed no improvement. On the contrary, i t seems that grade retention deteriorated and survival rate declined. The differentials o f schooling profiles between rural and urban populations are s t i l l distinctive.

18. the grade survival rate is very low. The overall dropout rate in 2003 at the primary level was 6.2 percent per grade. By the fourth grade, nearly 20 percent o f grade 1 pupils had dropped out. Thus, one pupil in five who commences schooling cannot be regarded as having received even the most basic education. Dropout rates are also high at the secondary level. There are only about 30 percent o f primary school entrants who achieve 10 years o f education, and as low as 23 percent finish the full secondary cycle (Figure 2).

For school-age children, although there is nearly universal access to grade one,

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Figure 2: Grade survival 1-10,2004

Source: Education Statistics, MoE, 2004.

19. Theprimary school completion rate in Swaziland is just over 60percent, lower than in many neighboring countries. For example, the primary education completion rate i s 87 percent in Botswana, 8 1 percent in Zimbabwe, 72 percent in Zambia, and 69 percent in Malawi (Figure 3). Junior secondary (Form 111) completion rate i s estimated at 36 percent. Albeit slightly higher than the SSA average at the lower-secondary level, this i s far f rom the goal o f universal completion.

Figure 3: Cross-country comparisons of primary completion rate I

120 100 80

E 60 40 20 0

Source: EdStats. The World Bank. Swaziland 2004 data, other countries 2002-2003 data.

20. than in many neighboring countries based on the most recent research results of the Southern African Consortium for Measuring of Education Quality (SACMEW. SACMEQ results show that the Swazi 6th graders achieved slightly above average scores in mathematics and English reading (Figure 4). Controlled for pupils socio- economic background, SACMEQ researchers recently concluded that the quality o f the education system in Swaziland was above many neighboring countries with respect to higher average achievement scores (higher l ine height in Figure 5) and higher equity in learning achievement across al l pupils f rom differentiated socio-economic backgrounds (flatter l ine slope in Figure 5). Although promising, this may reflect the higher scores o f grade six pupils due to faster dropout rates in lower grades.

The quality of the education system in Swaziland has been regarded as better

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Figure 4: SACMEQ results: traditional method of using average scores I

Seychelles Kenya

Tanzania Mauritius

Swaziland Bats wa na

Mozambique Uganda Lesotho Namibia

300 350 400 450 500 550 600

~

Figure 5: SACMEQ results: controlled for pupil’s socioeconomic background

560 1

n ‘. n cn t

-100 -50 0 50 100 150

pupil’s socioeconomic background

-+ Swaziland SACMEQ average

21. The results from Swaziland’s national examinations at the end ofprimary, junior secondary and senior secondary cycles indicate many areas ofpoor student performance. At the primary and junior secondary level, poor test results in vocabulary and English comprehension has also led to poor performance in other subjects. The 0- level examination results show that the failure rates are high in Mathematics (57.04 percent), Biology (45.40 percent), and English Literature (59.44 percent).

D. What factors contribute to Swaziland’s current distance from the EFA goal?

1. What are the key demand-side factors? 22. Swaziland’s poverty profile resembles that o f a l o w income country even though Swaziland’s GNI per capita i s three times the average for l o w income countries. Swaziland has 69 percent o f the population living below the poverty l ine and 37 percent of the population living in extreme poverty, unable to meet i t s basic food requirement. Poverty i s worse in m a l areas where the overall poverty headcount i s 76 percent compared to 50 percent in urban areas. Within the regions, Shiselweni and Lumombo

Widespread poverty in Swaziland has led to decreased demand for education.

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have the highest poverty levels at 76 and 73 percent respectively, while Hhohho has the lowest rate at 61 percent followed by Manzini at 70 percent. In Hhohho, urban poverty i s the lowest in the country at 39 percent, while Shiselweni has the highest rate at 68 percent. Manzini, which i s the commercial nerve center o f the country and the largest c i ty by population, has poverty levels o f 58 percent.

23. Poverty has made basic education less affordable to households. Currently over 90 percent o f the non-teacher salary spending in education is financed by fees collected from households. According to a recent school survey, the required school fees at the primary level amounted to E800 (about USD 120) per pupil per year o n average. This i s more than h a l f o f the amount o f the annual per capita spending o n food items o f the poorest Swazi households. In many cases, children from poor households drop out o f school because they cannot afford the fees. The increased school enrollment in response to increased O V C grants is also strong evidence that the affordability o f basic education has become a critical issue given the high poverty level, the increasing number o f H IV /A IDS orphans, and vulnerable children o f sick and unemployed parents. Indeed, the increasing enrollment o f school-age children in non-formal education institutions, such as Sabenta, i s due to the lower fees they charge.

24. High unemployment has also curbed the incentive for households to invest in education. One strong incentive for households to invest in children’s education i s their expected future earnings, which is highly correlated with their education attainment. Currently 30 percent o f the Swazi labor force i s unemployed. The unemployment rate also reflects similar urban-rural dynamics whereby the largely rural region o f Shiselweni has unemployment o f 53 percent compared to the more urban Hhohho region with an unemployment rate o f 20 percent. As labor i s the most important asset for the poor households, unemployment i s highly correlated with poverty. In Swaziland, the 62 percent o f household heads who are in paid non-seasonal employment have the lowest incidence o f poverty at 26 percent.

25. The relationship ofpoverty, unemployment and demand for education is strongly supported by statistical results. An analysis using household survey data shows that household income has the greatest effect o n whether children attend school. Children from households in the poorest income quintile are much less l ikely to be enrolled in school. Children from households in urban areas are at an advantage over children in rural areas. In particular, children in the Lubombo region have a significantly lower probability o f being enrolled in school. I t i s not a coincidence that these patterns are consistent with the widespread poverty and unemployment in the country.

2. What are the key supply-side factors? 26. The comparison of supply-side factors shows that regional disparities in classrooms and teacher availability largely exist and rein force the demand-side disparities across regions (Figure 6). The current location o f schools and availability of teachers is not in proportion to the population at the regional level. For example, the Manzini region represents around 21 percent o f the total population, however i t has nearly 30 percent o f primary and secondary school classrooms, 28 percent o f primary school teachers, and close to 32 percent o f total secondary school teachers. In

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comparison, the Lubombo region represents over 30 percent o f the Swazi population. However, i t has only 21 percent o f the primary school teachers and 21 percent o f the secondary school teachers. By the same token, there are only 21 and 17 percent o f the total primary and secondary school classrooms located in Lubombo. I t i s not surprising to see that instead o f mitigating the disparities, these supply-side factors could further exacerbate the overall disparities in school enrollment.

Figure 6: Regional disparities in classroom and teacher availability

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

Primary Teachers

0 Secondary Teachers

0 Primary School Classrooms

W Secondary School Classrooms

~

Hhohho Lubombo Manzini Shiselweni

27. 6th graders in Lubombo and Shiselweni, mostly rural regions, on average travel nine kilometers more to reach school than those in the Hhohho and Manzini regions. A 6th grader in the Shiselweni region travels as much as 25 kilometers on average to and from school. Longer distances to school increase the transportation cost o f schooling in the form o f bus fares as well as lost time. Longer distances to school also prevent children from starting school at the appropriate age because many o f them are not physically developed enough to handle this daily travel alone. The impact o f school distance on late school entry further contributes to higher dropout rates o f older children nearing adolescence, as boys are about to make the transition to work, and girls to marriage.

28. unannounced visit to a sample o f primary and secondary schools found that nearly 10 percent o f the teachers were absent from work on the day o f the visit. Teacher absenteeism i s indeed a problem in Swaziland. Factors related to school management appear to have a strong effect on teacher absenteeism. Teachers working at government schools, and at schools that were inspected during the past year are much less likely to be absent from work. In addition, teachers in rural schools have a higher probability o f absenteeism. Gender, tenure and residing in teacher housing have not had a significant effect on teacher absenteeism. These results can be compared with findings in other developing countries. Results from similar surveys with unannounced visits to primary schools in Bangladesh, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Peru, and Uganda recorded about 19 percent o f teachers absent. Although this seems more serious a problem than in Swaziland, one similar finding i s that teachers are less likely to be absent from schools that have been inspected recently. None o f these studies found that high teacher pay had

Distance to schools is long in rural areas. A survey under SACMEQ shows that

Teacher absenteeism is high. Under a school survey carried out in 2005, an

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a significant impact on absenteeism’. An important policy implication o f these findings l ies in the critical role o f school management in general teacher support and supervision.

11. HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC I S A MAJOR THREAT TO SWAZILAND’S EFA EFFORTS

29. According to UNAIDS estimates, Swaziland has the highest adult HIV prevalence rate in the world, surpassing Botswana and Zimbabwe in 2001. HIV/AIDS contributes to slow economic growth, high unemployment, income inequality and poverty. At the macroeconomic level, Swaziland’s labor supply i s likely to decline substantially due to AIDS-related sickness and death. National saving and investment rates may also decrease as a result o f the pandemic. This further leads to increased poverty, and negative effects on poverty alleviation efforts. Furthermore, the pandemic eliminates work sk i l ls and knowledge, shrinks the tax base, raises health-related costs, reduces pension funds, and further causes various humanitarian crises. The overall impact of the HIV/AIDSpandemic further leads to the decline of demand and supply-side factors that contribute to Swaziland’s distance from the EFA goal, and results in higher costs of basic education.

A. Changing school-age population 30. and increasing infant mortality. The total fertility rate decreased from 5.5 to 4.2 percent between 1990 and 2000, and infant mortality increased from 61 to75 percent per 1,000 births during the same period. The birth rate also decreased from 40 to 32 percent per 1,000 people while the death rate increased from 7 to 19 percent per 1,000 people. I t i s projected that the growth rate o f individuals aged 5- 19 will decrease from the current 1.5 -1.6 percent in 2015.

3 1. The population decline of the youngest cohort will ripple towards the older cohorts in later years, and cause the structure of the school- age population to change. According to the projections o f the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Database, the growth o f Swazi’s population aged 5-9 flattened out in 2001, and started to decline in the following years. I t i s estimated that the population aged 10-14 wil l start to decline in 2006, and those 15-19 in 201 1. By 2015, total population in the age ranges of 5-9, 10- 14, and 15-1 9 wil l be about 132,000, 140,000, and 150,000 respectively, compared with about 160,000, 150,000, and 132,000 in 2000 (Figure 7). These changes are important to consider for education sector planning with respect to the change o f the capacity needs to absorb students at different levels from primary to lower-secondary to upper-secondary.

HIV/AIDS reduces the school-age population by reducing the total fertility rate

’ Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrey Hammer, Michael Kremer, Karthik Muralidharan, and Halsey Rogers, “Teacher Absence in India,” World Bank, 2004, and Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrey Hammer, Michael Kremer, Karthik Muralidharan, and Halsey Rogers, “Missing in Action: Teacher and Health Worker Absence in Developing Countries,” 2005.

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Figure 7: Trend of school-age population growth

120 000

110 000

.............. .......................................................... .. ... .............. 1 170,000 I----

.....................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................

Table 1: Percentage of Both Both

parents parents alive died

2000 88.6 1.7 2005 77.8 4.9

2000 88.8 2.1 2005 75.5 5.6

M a n z i n i

Lubombo

or-Jhans aged 0-15,2000 and 2005 Total % of

Mother Father both single and died died double orphans

1.8 7.9 11.4 5.5 11.9 22.2

1.2 7.9 11.2 4 14.9 24.5

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34. Orphans bear higher risks of not being enrolled in school, dropping out of school and being used as child labor. There i s evidence that children, especially girls, who have lost one or both parents may be welcomed in other households, but at the cost o f a higher burden o f child labor and lower probability o f school enrollment. The average school enrollment rate o f orphaned boys and orphaned girls aged 7 to 19 years was 77 and 70 percent respectively, compared with around 8 1 percent for both non- orphan boys and girls. The effect o f various factors on the likelihood o f a chi ld dropping out o f school was estimated using a sample o f children 6- 12 years o ld who had attended school once. Controlled for household income, which i s a predominant factor, the mother’s death showed a significant effect on preventing children from staying in school. This i s further proof that HIV/AIDS and an increasing adult mortal i ty rate have seriously affected a household’s ability to keep children in school. In the meantime, over 3 percent o f orphans were involved in chi ld labor, as compared with 1 percent for non-orphans (Public Expenditure Review, The World Bank, 2006).

C. Disrupting supply 35. HIV/AIDS has negative effects on educators and on the systems and institutions responsible for providing educational services. The risk factors include deaths among educators and frequent and progressively more extended bouts o f sickness that prevent them from functioning properly. Many experience sickness in their family. In institutions where deaths are numerous and replacements inadequate, morale i s low.

36. however, the situation bears closer monitoring for future trends. Ministry o f Education records show that the overall mortality rate o f teachers was l o w at 1.1 percent in 2004. The 2005 school survey also indicated that mortality rates for primary school teachers were 1.4 percent in 2004 and 1 .O percent for secondary school teachers. Teacher deaths accounted for less than 50 percent o f teacher attrition which was estimated at 3.5 percent in 2004. One o f the main reasons why mortal i ty rates among teachers are less than the general population i s due to their relatively higher education attainment. HIV-infected teachers are also increasingly able to access life-prolonging anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs). The actual numbers o f teachers taking this medication is not known, but government clinics have been freely dispensing ARVs since 2004. Around 8,000 people are now using these drugs. By the end o f 2005, the number is expected to reach 12,000.

37. What seems a bigger concern about Swazi teachers i s the potential effect on teachingperformance due to illness. An alarming fact i s that many teachers who are sick are s t i l l at work. In a 2005 school survey, 9 percent o f a l l teachers who were at work were known to be ill by the head teacher. This raises the issue o f h o w these teachers are performing at work, and what extra support they would need to counter the negative impact o f sickness o n their teaching performance.

The overall teacher mortality rate does not appear to be very high in Swaziland,

D. Factors disrupting learning 38. both teachers andpupils. Risk factors include intermittent attendance; considerable

Thegoal of quality education could be eroded by the impact of the pandemic on

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trauma; inability to concentrate on learning activities because o f concern for those who are sick at home; repeated occasions for grief and mourning in school, families and communities; a widespread sense o f insecurity; and anxiety among both educators and pupils. In particular, the significant impact o f pu i l ’s disrupted school attendance and teacher’s inadequate dedication to key tasks on 6 grader’s math scores has been confirmed by recent research findings using SACMEQ data in Swaziland.

a

E. Rising education costs 39. the current l o w mortality rate o f teachers, the prevalence o f H IV /A IDS in adults has risen sharply in recent years, and i s expected to affect teacher attrition in the future. Additional funds will be needed to train replacement teachers. In the meantime, to compensate for lost teaching time due to teachers’ or their family members’ sickness, temporary teachers wil l need to be hired. For those teachers who are sick, additional support wi l l be needed not only in covering some o f the medical costs, but also in providing services in counseling. Health conditions may also force some teachers to retire early, thus increasing the cost o f pension payments, in addition to the cost due to the loss o f valuable teaching experience.

40. Additional resources are also needed to support pupils. HIV /A IDS deteriorates the household’s financial condition and puts more pressure o n the government to increase public resources to support the children f rom the households that are hardest hit. The Swazi government has already provided school grants to support orphans and vulnerable Children (OVC) so that the school fees could be waived for these children. However, the support ought not to stop there. Extra support would be needed to help these children achieve adequate learning outcomes, and to keep them in school. Children at school are also at a much lower risk o f H I V / A I D S infection as some recent studies have shown.

41. strengthen life skills education, which also requires additional resources. As in many other countries in Africa, H IV /A IDS education i s integrated into a number o f subjects in both primary and secondary schools. To restructure the current curricula from heavily content-based information to promoting behavior change in a non-prescriptive and non- judgmental manner based on participatory learner-centered pedagogy would need increased efforts o f pol icy makers, educators and al l teachers and pupils.

Costs will increase due to the increased need for supporting teachers. Despite

There is also an increased need to extend HIV/AIDS knowledge and to

F. Education as an effective social vaccine for HIV/AIDS 42. of basic education in a country such as Swaziland is justified by the empirical evidence that education is an effective social vaccine for the pandemic. Figure 8 shows the evolution o f the HIV prevalence rate o f the population with different education categories during a 12 year H IV /A IDS surveillance survey. HIV prevalence among the population with secondary education dropped the fastest. While the difference in prevalence rates between categories were less than 4 percentage points in 1990, the difference was as large as 10 percentage points by 2001.

The urgency of mitigating the impact of HIV/AIDS and universalizing 10 years

17

Figure 8: HIV prevalence by education category, Rural Uganda 1990-2001, Individuals aged 18-29

18.0 - 16.0 - 14.0 - 12.0 - 10.0 - 8.0 - 6.0 - 4.0 - 2.0 - 0.0 ~ ,

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

1 + No. education --IC-- primary -A- secondary 1

111. DOMESTIC RESOURCES ARE LIMITED FOR INCREASING EDUCATION SECTOR FINANCING

43. Achieving EFA would require an expanded and more efficient education system in Swaziland. Slow economic growth and widespread poverty in Swaziland has limited the ability o f households to contribute more resources to education. The declining fiscal condition has also restricted public resources available to invest in education. These are key factors that have constrained efforts to reverse the declining demand and deteriorating provision o f education, which are further exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

A. Declining economic growth 44. term growth. Long-term per capita growth declined steadily from 4.7 percent in the 1980s, 1.7 percent in the 1990s, and only 0.9 percent since 1995. The significant decline o f Swaziland’s economic growth since the early 1990s i s due in part to South Africa’s emergence from political and economic isolation, putting i t at a disadvantage for prospective investment.

45. Economic growth continued to slow down in recent years. GDP fe l l to 2.1 percent in 2004, and further to 1.8 percent in 2005. This i s due in part to many exogenous factors such as prolonged drought, high o i l prices, and the loss o f textile quotas in 2005, which resulted in the loss o f an estimated 50 percent o f the jobs in the garment industry. Furthermore, the appreciating currency and high oi l prices have also hurt Swaziland’s exports. However, the overall macroeconomic management and public policies have not been adequate to address the impact o f these external shocks. Compared with some neighboring countries that have faced the same adverse conditions in recent years, Swaziland has done far worse.

Swaziland’s very small and highly vulnerable economy is facing declining long-

18

B. Declining fiscal situation 46. the 1990s’ the central government budget has recorded persistently widening deficits since 1999/2000. The fiscal deficit increased from 1.7 percent o f GDP in 2000/01 to close to 4.5 percent o f GDP in 2005/06. The deficit was increasingly financed from domestic sources, including a drawdown from the Capital Investment Funds that i s included in the international reserves, as well as the issuance o f short-tern treasury bills. International reserve levels dropped in September 2005 to no more than one month o f imports, directly threatening the stability o f currency and prices.

Swaziland faces afiscal crisis. After recording sizable surpluses during much o f

Figure 9: Fiscal deficit as percent o f GDP 2000-2005

3 2

1

0 -1

-2

-3

-4

-5 -6

I

Swaziland Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix (IMF, 2003), and Swaziland Country Report, EIU (2005).

47. Swaziland’sfiscal crisis has not been for the lack of resources. Swaziland i s a member o f the “Southern Afr ica Customs Union” (SACU), and shares the customs revenues with other membership countries. In recent years, Swaziland has benefited f rom significant S A C U revenues, which now account for over ha l f o f total government revenues. The total revenue-to-GDP ratio has increased from about 27 percent in 2003/04 to a projected 3 1 percent in 2005/06. Most o f this increase i s accounted for by the increase in SACU revenues. By contrast, the non-SACU domestic revenue base remained broadly stagnant at around 12 percent o f GDP.

48. and macroeconomic management. Total spending rose from about 30 percent to 35 percent o f GDP between 2003/04 and 2005/06, due mostly to the massive increase in the wage bill from about 11 percent to 15 percent o f GDP during this period. A s a share o f total public spending, the wage bil l rose 47 percent in 2003/04 to 56 percent in 2005/062. In fact, Swaziland’s civil servants’ wage bill is the highest among the S A C U countries.

Swaziland’s fiscal crisis is closely linked to the overall inadequate fiscal policy

Swaziland: Public Expenditure Review, The World Bank, 2006.

19

C. Declining allocation to education 49. The overall deterioratingjkal condition has led to the decline of allocation to education. The policy decision to pass an oversized and escalating wage bill has seriously reduced the funds available for other areas o f public spending. For example, resources allocated to education declined from over 25 percent o f total public spending in 1999/2000 to below 21 percent in 2004/053 (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Trend o f education spending as % of total public spending

28.0% -

27.0% -

26.0% -

25.0% - 24.0% -

23.0% -

22.0% - 21.0% - 20.0% -

19.0% - 18.0% -

A n / A 34 5y0

20.9%

,

Iv. REFORMS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY FOR AFFORDABLE EFA 50. To achieve universal completion o f 10 years o f basic education for al l Swazi children, where can the government start education pol icy reforms in order to counter the constraining factors f rom both demand and supply side so as to improve grade promotion and learning, particularly with severe macroeconomic constraints and l imited resources. The EFA policy indicative framework developed by The Wor ld Bank provides a useful benchmark and can be used to put Swaziland in a comparative perspective (Table 2).

The irregularity in 2003/04 i s due to a large supplementary budget for the Univers i ty o f Swaziland.

20

Tab1

Public spending on education as Yo o f GDP

Public spending on education as YO of public spending

Public spending on sub-sector education as YO of public spending on education

EFA on-track SSA countries

3.8%

18%

48%

Primary education unit cost as YO of GDP per capita

12% including: -Non salary: 3%

-Salarv: 9% Average teacher salary as multiple of GDP per capita

Spending non-salary inputs as YO of education spending

Pupil-teacher ratio

Average repetition rate

Primary completion rate

3.3

26%

39: 1

9.5%

85%

countries and of Swa: Swaziland

(2004/05 budget)

4.9%

21%

35%

9% including: -Non salary: 1 %

-Salary: 8 %

2.6

9%

33: 1

16.5%

63 %

iland

~~ ~

Source: EFA Indicative Framework, The World Bank.

5 1. Although declining in recent years, public resource spending in the education sector in Swaziland is higher than the average of many EFA on-track countries. In 2004/05, total education spending was 4.9 percent o f Swaziland’s GDP, higher than the average o f the EFA on-track countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (3.8 percent). Total budgetary allocation to education was also higher; 2 1 percent in Swaziland compared to 18 percent o f the average EFA on-track countries. Although the allocation to education i s generally high, it i s much lower than those o f other SACU countries. For example, Botswana spends nearly 10 percent o f GDP on education, Lesotho 8 percent, Namibia over 7 percent, and South Africa nearly 6 percent. This indicates that while overall funding for the education sector in Swaziland i s adequate, education has not reached the same priority as in the neighboring countries.

52. The deviations of Swaziland’s key policy indicators from the EFA on-track countries’ norm can be easily found. As Table 2 shows, Swaziland’s allocation to primary education i s significantly lower than EFA on-track countries; the unit public spending on primary education i s very low as a percentage o f GDP per capital; teacher salary i s low as multiples o f GDP per capita; spending on non-salary inputs i s low; and repetition i s high. Table 3 shows that at the lower-secondary level, the overall unit spending i s adequate according to the recommended level by a regional study on secondary education financing4. However salary-spending squeezes out non-salary spending.

EFA st i l l includes primary education only in many countries. The indicative framework therefore does not provide similar comparisons at the lower secondary level.

21

Average teachers’ salary as multiple of GDP per capital

Recommended5 20%, including:

Non-salary: 7-8% Salary: 12-13%

Lower-secondary education unit cost as % of GDP per capita

Spending non-salary inputs as YO of education spending

Pupil-teacher ratio

Swaziland 22%, including:

Non-salary: 1.3% Salary: 20.7%

4.5

35-40%

35:l

5 3. policy norms indicate the need for efficient use of resources.. Indeed, education spending i s unlikely to increase given tight macroeconomic and fiscal constraints. Therefore improvement and expansion in service delivery i s a prerequisite for any policy reforms aimed at achieving the EFA goal. Four key areas should be the focus o f this attempt: (1) allocations across subsectors (allocative efficiency) (2) high repetition and dropout (internal efficiency); (3) use o f teachers and their relationship to curriculum (technical efficiency); (4) financial management and public procurement (management efficiency).

While funding for the education+sector i s adequate, significant deviations in

3.5

6%

19:1

A. Increase spending on basic education through intrasector reallocation 54. Allocation to primary education in Swaziland i s significantly lower than EFA on-track countries. Only 35 percent o f total sector allocation i s spent on primary education, compared with 48 percent on average in EFA on-track countries. In Tanzania, for example, primary education accounts for over 60 percent o f the total education budget. In neighboring countries l ike Lesotho or South Africa, 45 percent o f total education spending i s on primary education.

55. The unit spendingperpupil at primary schools needs to be increased to support

students, and the overall low allocation to this sub-sector, per pupil public spending at the primary level i s only 9 percent o f GDP per capita currently, 30 percent lower than the EFA on-track countries’ norm o f 12 percent. And less than one-tenth o f the already low spending i s on non-salary inputs. Whi le the salary component o f the unit spending i s comparable to that o f the EFA on-track countries, the unit non-salary public spending i s only one third o f these countries, measured as a percentage o f per capita. This i s mainly due to the fact that while in many SSA countries primary education i s free to households, school fees remain a major source o f funding for Swazi schools.

56. If Swaziland can reallocate resources so that primary spending reaches 48 percent of total sector spending, the EFA on-track countries’ average, it is estimated that unit spending will be comparable with EFA on-track countries in the region. The EFA indicative framework suggests that the non-salary component should be E500 per child, in 2004 prices, at the primary level in Swaziland. This could be a usefbl

. gradepromotion and qualily learning. Given the large number o f primary school

“Seeking Secondary Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: Strategies for Sustainable Financing” Kei th Lewin, 2005.

22

benchmark for setting the standard for capitation grants or other forms o f non-salary funding o n a per pupil basis to the schools.

57. Lower-secondary will need the largest increase of resources, however, the salaryhon-salary ratio needs to be adjusted. A challenging endeavor, the lower- secondary subsector will undergo the largest expansion to reach EFA goals, going from a 30 to 100 percent grade 10 completion rate. In addition, over the next decade, unlike the primary school-age population, the lower-secondary school-age population wi l l continue to increase. Current overall unit spending at this level is adequate, but the salary to non-salary ratio i s extremely skewed. On average, 22 percent o f GDP per capita i s spent o n a lower-secondary Swazi student, close to the recommended 20 percent at this level. However, the salary component alone represents 21 percent o f GDP per capita, as compared to the norm o f 12 percent. This is largely due to the extremely low pupil-teacher ratio o f 19:l at this level, compared with 35 : l as recommended. If the salaryhon-salary ratio i s adjusted to 65:35, non-salary spending would be close to E20,000 per pupil, more than what would be needed to replace school fees at this level.

5 8. Given the widespread poverty in Swaziland, broadening the public resource base to support basic education and abolishing school fees is justifled. Specific demand- side initiatives are needed for HIV/AIDS orphans and other vulnerable children and should continue after these children are eventually absorbed into the formal education system to support their learning and grade retention. These are key areas that require a significant increase o f non-salary spending.

59. A relatively high proportion of spending committed to tertialy education is a constraint to achieving equitable progress in the sector. In 1999, spending o n tertiary education was equal to 69 percent o f expenditures o n primary education. This ratio declined sharply in 2002/03 to 58 percent mainly due to the provision o f primary textbooks in school year 2002. However, the actual spending data in 2003/04 has shown that the ratio o f tertiary versus primary spending reached as high as 77: 100, after U N I S WA received a supplementary budget. Overall, despite the pol icy o f prioritizing primary education, expenditure remains heavily skewed towards tertiary education. Tertiary education accounts for less than 1 percent o f the student body, but accounts for 23 percent o f the country’s education budget. By contrast, primary education accounts for 77 percent o f the students but only 35 percent o f total education expenditure. The skewed intrasector resource allocation further leads to a concern o f inefficiencies at the University o f Swaziland. The government has already started a review o f the operations at the University o f Swaziland. Reforms are needed to increase management efficiency and reduce waste, and to create better incentives for increasing investments from private sources, shifting public investment focus to address equity issues with better targeted scholarship programs.

B. Improve student flow and reduce high repetition and dropout rates 60. internal efficiency in the Swazi school system. According to “Education Rules” (1977), “there shall be normal progression throughout the school system save in respect o f classes where written external examinations are required” (Rule 13.1). However, this

The persistently high repetition rate of every grade i s a distinctive sign of low

23

rule is not enforced by the Ministry o f Education. System statistics show that repetition rates averaged 16 percent in primary school classes in 2004. The highest repetition rates were grades one (18.5 percent) and three (18.8 percent). Repetition i s also high at the secondary level, at 10 percent per grade o n average. A relatively l o w repetition rate in the last year o f each cycle may be partly due to the selection o f pupils for the public examination at the end o f each cycle, which leads to grade repetition earlier at the lower grades. The repetition rates in the Swazi school system are high compared with other countries in the region. According to SACMEQ data, 60 percent o f Swazi 6th graders repeated grades, and 20 percent repeated twice. In comparison, 25 percent o f 6th graders in Tanzania, 30 percent in Botswana, and 40 percent in South Afr ica have ever repeated between grade one and six.

6 1. There is little empirical evidence to suggest that simply repeating grades would enable low-performance children to catch up. Targeting students at risk, such as those from poor families with a lower level o f parental education, may be a better approach. In addition, grade repetition may not be the most cost-effective way o f achieving good learning outcomes. The cost o f repetition for achievement gains may be higher than other alternatives due to the following factors: (1) individual student learning needs are not properly addressed by simple repetition; (2) repeating students m a y crowd out other school-age children when there is l imited classroom space; and (3) the different ages o f repeaters compared with those progressing normally may require extra teaching efforts and instruction techniques.

62. goes up. Six percent o f pupils drop out per grade at the lower-primary level, and 10 percent per grade at the upper primary level. The dropout rate is even higher at the secondary level: 16 percent per grade o n average. At the primary level, o n average, only 62 percent o f students entering the school system survive the full cycle o f seven grades. For those who enter secondary education, 65 percent will survive to Form 111.

63. High repetition and dropout rates suggest the Swazi education system i s highly inefficient internally. Currently, i t takes 69 1 student-years o f instruction to produce 62 graduates, or 1 1.15 student-years each, compared to seven years with perfect efficiency. The rate o f inefficiency i s therefore 1 1.15/7, or as l o w as 59 percent. The survival rate o f the junior secondary level i s about 65 percent. Similarly, i t takes 403 student-years to produce 47 graduates, or 8.6 years each to complete the five-year cycle, representing a rate o f inefficiency o f 58 percent.

64. Various socioeconomic characteristics are attributed to higher risks of students repeating grades and dropping out of school. A statistical analysis has found that the higher the parents’ education level, particularly that o f the mother, the less l ikely a chi ld wil l repeat any grade. Children from the richest quintile o f households are also less l ikely to repeat grades. These variables are also found to be significantly related to a child’s academic performance. Besides the level o f household income, a mother’s death also appears to be a strong factor in children dropping out o f school. This i s proof that HIV/AIDS and increasing adult mortality has seriously affected a household’s ability to keep children in school.

The average dropout rate is very high in Swaziland, and it increases as the grade

24

65. Schools need to reform selection and promotion procedures at transition points and within cycles in order to reduce repetition and drop out. National examinations used for selections o f pupils for the next education level can contribute to high rates o f repetition especially at the upper grades o f primary education, and in the last years o f lower and upper secondary where pupils retake exams to improve performance. In addition, school-based continuous assessment has provided one o f the most usefbl tools to ensure the effectiveness o f the learning process, and i s a critical diagnostic mechanism for policy formulation on quality enhancement. In Swaziland, continuous assessment was piloted in 16 schools in 1991 and 1992. In 1993, i t was introduced to al l primary schools for English and mathematics. To strengthen its effectiveness, there is need to improve support to teachers to help them manage their increased tasks and to provide better guidance and training so that continuous assessment would not simply mimic public examinations but rather provide an holistic assessment o f both cognitive and non-cognitive aspects o f students’ behavior and achievements, which in turn would better facilitate effective learning and grade promotion.

C. Redeploy teachers, maintain minimum teaching loads, and teach more reading, writing, math and science

1. Teachers should be more efficiently utilized 66. resources between teachers and other key educational inputs such as teaching and learning materials. Teachers represent the most important human resource in education service delivery. To achieve quality education, i t is essential that teachers are available to al l pupils and that they have a high level of commitment and adequate professional skills to perform their duties. Teacher compensation constitutes the single largest cost within the education system. H o w teachers are utilized affects the cost significantly.

67. The high cost of teacher salaries is due to the unjustifiably low pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) at both theprimary and secondary level. Measured as a mult iple o f GDP per capita, the average teacher salary i s relatively l o w in Swaziland. A Swazi primary school teacher earns about 2.6 times the GDP per capita, lower than the widely- recognized adequate multiple o f 3.5 o n average. However, Swaziland has a much larger teaching force in relation to the size o f the enrollment. In particular, in recent years, Swaziland’s escalating number o f teachers does not match the enrollment increase. The pupil-teacher ratio has declined at both the primary and secondary levels since the early 90s. At the primary level, the pupil-teacher ratio was lowered from 33: 1 in 1990 to 3 1 : 1 in 2003 (Figure 11). At the secondary level, the pupil-teacher ratio was reduced from 19:l to 13:l during the same period. These l o w pupil-teacher ratios should raise efficiency concerns among pol icy makers, as international data shows that once it reaches a certain level, a l o w pupil-teacher ratio does not contribute as much to improvement in learning outcomes as to other educational inputs such as teaching and learning materials.

Efficient utilization of teachers is a prerequisite to adequate allocation of

25

Figure 11: Evolution of PTR I

40.0 ..............................................................................................

35.0 .............................................................................................

30.0 ............................................................................................. A-

25.0 t ............................................................................................. ...........................

..

1 + PTR secondarv -A- PTR Drirnarv 1

68. official staffing rules which lead to low PTRs at both levels. MoE needs to urgently review these staffing rules to ensure efficient teacher utilization through stipulating standard class sizes and enforcing standards o f minimum teaching loads. Based on current rules (Table 4) and school enrollment information in 2003, it i s estimated that the total recommended teacher’s quota should be 6,923 positions at the primary level, and 4,949 positions at the secondary level. This would further lower the average pupil- teacher ratios to 30: 1 for primary, and 12.6: 1 for secondary. According to “Space Standards For Schools” issued by MoE, a standard class size i s 45 pupils at the primary level. However, class size i s usually much smaller than 45 pupils in many schools, particularly for higher grades due to drop out and higher repetition in lower grades. Staffing rules should explicitly state minimum teaching loads to ensure better use o f teachers particularly for those who teach more specialized courses.

The PTR at the primary and secondary level i s largely determined by the current

26

Category Lower-primary Schools:

Complete primary schools, single stream:

Complete primary schools, multiple streams:

Secondary schools:

Table 4: Staffing rules Rules

One teacher per class Head teacher teaches one class No post for deputy head teacher

One teacher per class One additional teacher per practical subject. (A single stream school i s expected to offer at least one practical subject.) Head teacher covers at least fourteen periods per week and covers for any absent teachers, in addition to managerial and administrative tasks

One teacher per class One additional teacher per practical subject Head teacher takes at least 8 periods per week Deputy head teacher takes full teaching load For schools wi th enrollment over 800 pupils, a second deputy head teacher i s granted; deputy head teachers take at least 12 periods per week For Agriculture and Home Economics, 1 teacher granted for each subject and for every 2 streams that these subjects are taught For French Language, 1 teacher granted the each o f the f i rst two streams, and one additional teacher for every additional 2 streams 1.7 teachers per class 1 Head teacher 1 practical subject teacher for each practical subject and every stream

1 commercial teacher for every 213 o f the number o f streams 1 technical teacher for each technical subject 1 deputy head teacher for each additional stream

(agriculture, home economics, food and nutrition)

69. Teacher deployment needs to be adjusted to better reflect teaching needs and reduce the PTR variations across schools. Although the overall pupil-teacher ratio i s low, the distribution o f teachers across schools is uneven (Figure 12). Filling teacher vacancies in rural and remote areas remains a challenge despite incentives such as housing subsidies. Another factor worth noting i s that currently, primary school teachers are trained to teach classes in al l subjects instead of just specialized subjects. However, specialized-teaching i s widely practiced at primary schools particularly in higher grades. This may further inflate the need for teachers and cause an uneven distribution o f teaching loads across primary school teachers.

27

Figure 12: Teacher deployment: Primary level

3 5 ......................................................................

30 + .............................................. ~ .......................

+ *- . ............. ..............................

0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

school sizelno. of pupils

70. At the secondary level, the most urgent issue to tackle is the uneven distribution of teachers by subject, the severe lack of mathematics and science teachers, and an over-supply of teachers for other subjects. On average nationwide, there is one mathematics teacher for every 84 pupils. A single stream school with 200 students in five classes, and the minimum three hours o f mathematics instruction per week per class would require one mathematics teacher for every 50 students, assuming the standard teaching load o f 20 hours per week. The shortage o f mathematics (and science) teachers is closely related to the l o w enrollment in mathematicshcience teacher training at TTCs. The uneven distribution o f mathematics teachers across schools further exacerbates the shortage.

71. adapted teacher training to equip teachers with additional skills and prepare them for potential structural changes in the education sector. Teachers need to prepare themselves to teach large classes and multi-grade classes. To ensure minimum teaching loads, teachers who teach specialized subjects may need to be re-trained to teach multiple subjects. In addition, a more flexible teacher training program will be required to compensate for the gradual change in the teaching corps, including an increased proportion o f teachers at the junior secondary level.

Improving the efficiency of teacher utilization also calls for strengthened and

2. A broad curriculum affects the efficiency of learning and resource utilization 72. need for resources. For example, at the 0-level, there are 30 examinable subjects (Table 5), with a large proportion o f practical subjects. There would be significant cost implications for EFA if a broad curriculum was attempted at junior secondary schools. For example, increased funding would be required for workshop construction and for teacher training and deployment. Between 2000 and 2003, capital spending in secondary education was 20 times as much as that for the primary level, primari ly because o f infrastructure needs for the Pre-Voc schools. A broader curriculum also contributes to the underutilization o f teachers because o f their need to be highly specialized. Highly specialized teachers not only bring higher training costs, but also

The broad curriculum in Swaziland is one of the key factors that increase the

28

cause lower teaching loads. In addition, the cost o f providing specialized teaching and learning materials i s also higher as there i s l i t t le economy o f scale.

Table 5 Code

1123 2010 2012 2040 204 1 2158 2160 2223 228 1 3015 3164 4024 403 1 5038 5054 5070 5090 5096 5124 5126 5129 5130 6030 6040 6050 6065 6075 7010 7040 7065 7100 7102 71 10

List o f examinable subjects at tl

Subject

English Language English Literature English Literature Religious Studies Religious Studies History/World Affairs History (Central/Southern Africa) Geography Economics French SiSwati Mathematics Additional Mathematics Agriculture Physics Chemistry Biology Human and Social Biology Science (Physics, Chemistry) Science (Chemistry, Biology) Combined Science Additional Combined Science Woodwork Metalwork Fashion & Fabrics Food and Nutrition Home Management Computer Studies Geo. And Mech. Drawing Electronics Commerce Commercial studies Principle of Accounts

O-level No. of

examinees 8,019 1,531

237 2,816

94 2,304 4,413

203 129

6,482 7,235

265 2,079

6 5

2,617 118

2,486 55

3,481 451 280 172 144 799

9 5

463

2,305 16

2,434

73. Setting aside the high cost incurred by a broad curriculum, whether such curriculum is relevant with regard to the objectives ofprimary and secondary education is also arguable. In many countries where general and vocational education coexist, the employer puts more value on a general education o f literacy and numerical skills, reasoning, and problem-solving, with particular importance placed on the ability to adapt to the changing workplace environment and to be self-sufficient.

29

D. Improve accountability of public resource utilization and establish adequate measures to facilitate school grants and procurement of teaching and learning materials

74. The highly centralized system ofpublic resource utilization in Swaziland leads to rigid and inefficient public policy implementation. Unl ike many other countries, no ministerial tendering board exists for public procurement, only a central tendering board at Treasury, together with al l public works managed and coordinated by the Ministry o f Public Works. The rationale for a centralized public resource management system i s to ensure accountability for use o f public funds. However, the centralized system lengthens the process o f decision making to actual implementation. This inefficiency i s often referenced by non-autonomous public institutions such as teacher training colleges. For example, even routine maintenance will wait for the response o f the Ministry o f Public Works, which in many cases is bombarded by needs f rom a l l over the government and causes unavoidable delays.

75. Centralization may not be the answer to adequate accountability ofpublic resource utilization. Although there appears to be a tight control o n public resources, i t ’s possible that irregularities exist in the current system. In 2005, while upgrading the system, the Teaching Service Commission working with EMIS found out there were a large number o f teachers o n the payrol l who were “ghost” teachers. MoE stated that this was due to negligence of database maintenance rather than as a result o f fraudulent activities. Whether any funds were disbursed to these “ghost” teachers i s st i l l under investigation.

76, I n many countries, a direct allocation of funds to schools to support service delivery has proved effective for improving efficiency of public resource utilization. Currently the inadequate financial management system in Swaziland is an obstacle to improved efficiency. Historically, there was only limited, non-salary public resources available to schools. School fees paid by parents largely financed school operational costs. Presently, elected school committees discuss the school budget, establish fees, and monitor the spending at schools managed by head teachers. This is a well- established system o f adequate accountability. The Education A c t stipulates that schools should be audited by the Auditor General’s Office. In practice, however, auditing is sporadic due mostly to a shortage of auditors to cover a l l the schools, and l imited public funds at the schools’ disposal. In addition, until most recently, the internal auditing at M o E was practically non-existent.

77. Indeed, the issue of school accountability and financial management came up most recently in two areas where there has been increasedpublic spending: public provision of textbooks at theprimary level, and school grants to support OVC. Public provision o f primary school textbooks started in 2002. Before 2002, schools collected fees to purchase textbooks and rented them to pupils. Books were kept for four years, with four students sharing the cost. Whi le secondary schools have a choice o f textbooks from various publishers approved by MoE, Macmil lan Swaziland has had several 10- year contracts with M o E to be the sole publisher o f primary school textbooks since the 1970s. In the early 9Os, M o E and Macmil lan Swaziland established a jo int venture with 30 percent of the shares owned by MoE. Currently Macmil lan remains the only supplier o f primary school textbooks. I t also assists M o E in collecting school textbook orders as

30

well as distributing books to regional offices. M o E needs to revisit this arrangement as issues o f competitiveness and cost-effeciency may arise, as we l l as MoE’s conflicting role as both a regulator o f the sector and as part o f a profit-earning enterprise. School grants to support OVCs also call for improved accountability. The criteria for selecting the recipients o f these grants is not wel l defined. Many schools claimed that none or insufficient funds were received. There has already been demand at the grassroots level for government to provide an accurate list o f recipients. However, a monitoring and evaluation system has yet to be established.

E. How much would EFA cost with and without key reforms to achieve better resource allocation, reduce grade repetition and achieve more efficient teacher deployment?

78. public interventions in key areas to restore demand and further strengthen and improve teaching and learning. Quantitatively, the estimate for needed resources i s determined by the size o f enrollment and unit spending per pupil. The enrollment size i s determined by the size o f the relevant school-age population as wel l as internal efficiency measures such as repetition and dropout. Reducing the repetition rate decreases the number o f pupils in the system while reducing dropouts works the opposite way. Unit spending per pupil comprises teacher salary component and non-salary component. Better deployment and utilization o f teachers would generate savings. Ensuring quality teaching would require sufficient non-salary spending on teaching and learning materials and on supporting school operations. Currently, school fees are paid by Swazi parents and account for a large part of non-salary funds. However, this arrangement has become less sustainable as affordability has become a bigger issue in recent years, Therefore, increasing public spending of non-salary funds for basic education wil l be a necessary requirement for reaching EFA goals.

79. Reducing repetition can generate huge savings. If repetition remains at the current level, achieving universal completion o f 10-year basic education by 2015 will require over 226,000 school places at the primary level, and 96,000 at the junior secondary level compared with 189,000 and 86,000 respectively if repetition could be totally eliminated. In addition to saving the cost o f new construction, significant savings could also be obtained f rom decreased salary and non-salary spending o n pupils. I t is estimated that 110 to 140 mi l l ion Emalangeni (USD 17 to 22 mil l ion) could be saved from the annual budget in 2015 (Table 6).

Achieving EFA would need an expanded basic education sector with increased

31

Table 6:

3y year 2015

Primarv education:

With repetition

Without repetition

Savinw

Junior secondarv education:

With repetition

Without repetition

Savings

Memo items: GDPp.c (E) GDP total (millions E)

ummary of d Total

enrollment

226,092

189,465

36.627

96,056

86,067

9.989

22,000

23,000

ect cost estimates wi th and wit! Total sala

(mill

Without change: unit

salary spending 8% of GDP p.c.

398

333

- 65

Without change: unit

salary spending

GDP p.c. 20.7% of

437

392

45

7 spending ns E)

Align with EFA success

countries: unit salary

spending 9% of GDP p.c.

448

375

- 73

Align wi th recommended

level: unit salary spending 12.5% of GDP p.c.

264

237

- 27

ut efficiency reforms Total non-salary spending

(milli

Without change: unit non-salary

spending 1% of GDP p.c.

50

42

- 8

Without change: unit non-salary spending

1.3% of GDP p.c.

27

25

- 2

i s E) Align with

EFA success countries: unit non-

salary spending 3% of GDP p.c.

149

125

- 24

Align with recommended

level: unit non-

salary spending

7.5% of GDP p.c.

158

142

- 16

80. Better teacher utilization, particularly at the secondary level, can also generate big savings. Swaziland’s current unit salary spending at this level i s nearly 21 percent o f GDP per capita, much higher than the international benchmark o f 12-13 percent. This i s mainly due to the extremely l ow pupil-teacher ratio at this level. I t i s estimated that E 155- 170 mi l l ion can be saved by adjusting the PTR to the benchmark.

8 1. At both the primary and lower-secondary level, non-salary spending will need more resource allocation to align Swaziland’s spending to a level necessary to ensure quality service delivery as indicated by the international benchmark. There are very little non-salary fimds from public resources. At the primary level, overall public spending i s low. At the secondary level, the very l o w non-salary spending i s mainly a result o f the high cost o f teacher salaries crowding out non-salary spending. I t i s estimated that by 2015, over E170-200 mi l l ion (USD 27 to 3 1 mil l ion) additional would be needed for non-salary spending. This level o f investment could be largely covered by the cost savings from reducing repetition, as estimated above.

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Efficiency improvement measures: Whether unit

cost i s re- Whether aligned with repetition i s international

benchmark eliminated narios

1 N o N o

2 No Yes

3 Yes No

33

cost of cost of cost of lower- basic primary secondary

(millions) YO of GDP YO of GDP YO of GDP

913 3.97% 1.95% 2.02%

1,020 4.43% 2.60% 1.84%

792 3.44% 1.63% 1.81%

E education as education as education as

F. Transform basic education towards EFA goals: projections of enrollment, teacher needs, and requirements for public resources 2006-2015

K e y po l i cy reforms need to b e undertaken between 2006 and 2015 to transform the 84. education sector and gear up for achieving EFAgoals. Table 8 summarizes the k e y po l i cy directives with a focus o n efficiency improvement. These directives form the basis fo r sector projections o f enrollment, teacher needs, and requirements for public resources in the coming years. Managing teacher ut i l izat ion and reducing repetit ion and dropout rates should b e k e y to the success o f EFA efforts.

Goal

Primary level

100 percent completion rate by 2015, with

0 100 percent access rate 0 Zero dropout rate by 20 15

Redeploy teachers so that by 20 15 the PTR reaches 40: 1;

Increase average teacher salary to 3.5 times the GDP p.c. by 2015, as teachers are teaching larger classes, and some may handle multi-grade teaching;

Increase non-salary spending to 25 percent, starting in 2007, to replace school fees and to support quality teaching and learning.

ication sector planning Lower-secondary level

100 percent completion rate by 2015, with

100 percent primary to lower- secondary transition rate by 2015 Zero dropout rate by 20 15

Eliminate repetition by 20 15

Standardize teacher work load so that by 20 1 5, average teacher work load i s 20 h r s per week, which implies a PTR o f 32: 1 by 20 15 (assuming 40 pupils per class on average);

Increase average teacher salary to 4.5 times the GDP p.c. by 2015 as teaching loads will increase;

Increase non salary spending to 25 percent, starting in 2007, to replace school fees and to support quality teaching and learning.

Basic education enrollment projections 85. of 9,OOOpupils in basic education. However, the composition of enrollment will largely change. Between 20046 and 2015, there will b e a net increase o f 38,000 pupils at the junior secondary level, compared with a net decrease o f 29,000 at the primary level. The proport ion o f jun io r secondary enrollment to total basic education enrollment wil l increase f r o m 18 to 3 1 percent. Th is wil l be mainly due to s lowing populat ion growth, reduced repeti t ion at the pr imary level, and greater improvement o f lower- secondary school completion fi-om a mere 30 percent to 100 percent by 2015.

By 2015, it is projected that total enrollment will moderately grow by an increase

Last year actual enrollment data available.

34

Table 9: Primary and

Primary enrollment Jr. secondary enrollment Primary GER Jr. secondary GER

Primary enrollment Jr. secondary enrollment Primary GER Jr. secondary GER

Figure 13: Primary and junior secondary school enrollment projections

.'unior secondary school enrollment projections 2007 2008 2009 2010

21 1,245 209,421 207,089 204,372 55,071 59,202 63,294 67,359 98% 98% 98% 99% 59% 63% 68% 73%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201,480 198,514 195,494 192,466 189,465 71,355 75,243 78,994 82,601 86,067 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 78% 83% 89% 94% 100%

300,000

250,000

200,000 1 150,000

5 100,000

50,000

0

I 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R i m r y enrollment 0 Jr. secondary enrollment + Jr. secondary G W -A- R i m r y G W

Projection of teacher needs and teacher supply 86. decrease by 2015 ifthe improvement of teacher utilization can not be achieved through better deployment of teachers and standardizing of teaching loads. Given the enrollment projections above and the PTR gradually increasing from 33:l at the primary level and 19: 1 at the junior secondary level in 2004 to 40: 1 and 32: 1 in 201 5, the total number o f teachers needed at the primary level i s estimated at 4,600, decreasing from 6,400 in 2004. At the junior secondary level, the number o f teachers needed will largely remain at 2,700. The decrease in the number o f primary school teachers needed can be explained by the fact that the total primary school enrollment will be smaller and teachers will be handling slightly larger classes. The needs o f teachers with increased enrollment at the junior secondary level wil l essentially be met through better utilization o f teachers. The total number o f teachers at each level i s projected as shown in Table 10 and Figure 14.

With the above enrollmentprojections, the total number of teachers will

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Table 10: Projected number of teachers

Total number o f teachers for grades 1-7 2007 2008 2009 2010 5,778 5,587 5,390 5,190

Total number o f teachers for Formsl-3 Total number of teachers for basic education

Total number o f teachers for grades 1-7 Total number o f teachers for Forms 1-3 Total number of teachers for basic education

Figure 14: Projected number of teachers

2,505 2,547 2,582 2,611 8,284 8,133 7,971 7,801

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4,992 4,800 4,718 4,636 4,555 2,635 2,655 2,669 2,676 2,678 7,628 7,454 7,387 7,313 7,233

87. The

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total number of teachers for grades 1-7 I Total number of teachers for From 1-3

innual total of new teachers provided by teacher training colleges will remain relatively stable in the medium term, but with an increasing proportion of secondary school teachers trained. Theoretically, teacher training i s aimed at meeting three needs: (1) compensating for teacher attrition, (2) increasing the total number o f teachers to handle a larger enrollment, and (3) achieving certain pupil-teacher ratio goals. A key issue in Swaziland in planning teacher training and the number o f new teachers annually i s the need to closely monitor attrition due to the r isks o f HIV/AIDS and increase the proportion o f lower-secondary school teachers relative to that o f primary school teachers.

Total Cost 88. A notable trend of spending is the gradual equalizing of allocations to the primary and lower-secondary levels, in addition to the increasedproportions of funds for non-salary spending. I t i s estimated that by 2015, the cost o f primary education will basically remain at 2 percent o f the GDP, compared to the increase o f the lower- secondary level from 0.9 percent in 2004 to 1.8 percent in 2015 (Figure 15).

36

Figure 15: Primary and lower-secondary spending as percentage of GDP

2.0% -

1.8%

1.6% -

1.4% -

1.2% -

1.0%

I 2.2% , 1,goh 1.90/; 2.0% - 2.0% 2.0% * - = 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% - 1 .90~ e * -- - - -

----------n .80L

-.,A- 1 1.8% /I .7%

1 .?% *--T--A-*I--- 1.6% <&:

c.---H 1.5% 1.4%

I

89. improved intrasector allocation, there is still a need for increased public spending in education. External resources may be needed in the near future. I t i s estimated that at a minimum, education spending requires an increase f rom 4.4 to 5.4 percent o f GDP, assuming there i s significant efficiency gains f rom tertiary education spending so that basic education can reach 70 percent o f current allocation. Given the current fiscal constraints, the government o f Swaziland may need to seek external resources to fill the financing gap.

Figure 16: Projected total cost and as percentage of projected GDP

Even with signijcant efjciency gains in primary and secondary education, and

2.000 .................................................................................

5.50%

5.00% h I 1'500

4.50%

b 4.00% $

3.50% 0.500

3.00%

2.50%

E i l'Oo0

0.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Classroom construction and investment cost 90. More classrooms need to be built in rural areas to shorten the travel distance. According to the enrollment projections above, by 2015 there wil l be around 9,000 more pupils in primary and secondary schools than the total enrollment in 2004. Given that the current total number o f classrooms i s relatively adequate, an estimated additional

37

200 classrooms need to be built during the 10 year span. Although this may be an easy task, an important factor to consider i s the distribution o f classrooms across geographic areas. More schools wil l need to be built close to rural households so that the schools are more accessible to young children. In addition, there i s a need to emphasize and allocate regular funding to school maintenance and rehabilitation, which i s always the most cost-effective way o f improving the learning infrastructure.

CONCLUSION 91. other ministries is key to the success of education sector reforms towards achieving EFA goals. In the immediate term, MoE can begin measures aimed at reducing repetition and dropout, which are the most straightforward and under the direct control o f the education sector. Teacher deployment will need the collaborated efforts o f other ministries such as the Ministry o f Public Service in order to improve the staffing rules and better design incentive and compensation programs for teachers. Improving management at the University o f Swaziland will be essential to reduce costs so more funds can be allocated to support basic education. To tackle financial management and procurement issues, MoE wil l largely collaborate with the Accountant General, the Auditor General, as well as the Treasury. Additional assistance in mobilizing resources wil l be needed from the Ministry o f Finance and the Ministry o f National Planning and Development.

The leadership of the Ministry of Education and its close collaborations with

38