C E N T R E F O R C L I M A T E R E S E A R C H & D E V E L O P M E N T C O M S A T S U N I V E R S I T Y I S L A M A B A D ,

P A K I S T A N

A U G U S T 2 9 , 2 0 1 8

Challenges and Opportunities in the Hydropower sector of Pakistan

Pervaiz Amir, PhD (p.amir2010@yahoo.com)

Storyline

Hydropower Dams in Pakistan’ history, contribution to agriculture, industrial and economic growth

Tarbela Dam WCD case- actual benefits exceed predicted. Dam Justification irrigation but hydropower crucial output Dams neutralize flood impacts? Climate Change, environmental

flows, salvaging dead rivers Hydropower generates benefit spread Dams and Food Security/agriculture Dams mega investments, delays even costlier Dams regulate water and symbolize development-monuments of

human endeavor Dams have trans-boundary implications, India, Afghanistan Great plans but slow or no implementation-Policy 2018 Supreme Court emerges a new leader in resource mobilization and

recognizer of dams for National Water Security

Objectives

Focus on Hydropower sector and its current and future scenarios, benefit sharing, water policy

a. agriculture impacts from dams

b. Transboundary issues within IBT, 1960

Future Research Topics

Status of Dams in Pakistan

Outlook of Hydropower Development

Two more references for reading

Challenge #1 Water Security

Amount 145 MAF available to Manage

Water Security only 30 days or less

Population 2010 (180 million ) 2035 (350 million)

Global Warming and Glacier melt (80% melting)

Transboundary conflicts-

Avg vs. Actual flows Pakistan 12.35 MAF out of

145 MAF India 278 MAF out of 750

MAF

Climate Change-Treaties under threat--Realities

Challenge #2 Energy Security

Pakistan faces short fall of 5000 MW

Energy Mix Hydro Nuclear Oil

Hydropower potential is 60,000 MW- alternatives yes but no demonstrated contribution

Price Rs. 2/watt alternate Rs 18 per watt

Losing 5+% GDP annually due to shortfalls

Discontent, political turmoil and social disharmony

Challenge # 4 Buffering Climate Change

Glacier Melt saved in dams or in dangerous GLOF–hydraulic challenges

Why dams-- if flows projected to decline

Living with half empty glasses

Dams during floods and droughts

Dams as instruments of Planned Adaptation

What if no climate change takes place?? Are investments in dams worthwhile

Challenge# 5 Stabilizing Economic Growth/welfare/Equity/Distribution

Its my dam too and so is my road!

Gainers compensating losers

Upfront investments in technology, agriculture, planning and human capital

Role of markets in allocating water and electricity

National Engagement- the US I-40 experience

Kinks from Climate Change e.g. flood aberrations

New avenues and area development –beyond status quo

Transboundary Challenge

Pay-back of Hydropower

Very high e.g. Malakand III

Delays raise costs

Cost over runs common

Considerable corruption in mega projects

B/C high but tricky

50 B Question! For Pakistan Climate Change is a matter of

Developing Water Security. The costs are US $ 1.85/MAF and 25 MAF water development is mere replacement works.

The New financiers are in search of markets and South Asia provides the population center of the World

Debt Servicing/write-off to address climate change adaptation

Agriculture challenging without dams

India situation vs. Pakistani situation

Feeding large populations

Indus Basin not sustainable

Must apply first class water to first class agriculture and not first class water to third class agriculture

Water Policy April 2018

Identifies Munda and Basha as two major hydropower dams

Leaves out KB-a strategic challenge

Today water commissioners meeting in Lahore

First come First serve—India is doing that

Using our canals and rivers for raft mounted hydropower generation

Article 161 of the Constitution of Pakistan32

‘The net profits earned by the Federal Government,or any undertaking established or administered bythe Federal Government from the bulk generation ofpower at a hydro-electric station shall be paid to the

Province in which the hydro-electric station is situated’.

Lessons Learned from Hydropower Dams in Pakistan

Indecision is costly Dams have served Pakistan’s interests well New Dams will require extensive benefit sharing-especially those

that are contentious Environmental concerns only given “lip service” Mismanagement, governance and corruption are very serious

issues in the water sector-is it only Pakistan specific? Climate change is forcing response in water sector-it has to be

both demand and supply side based Platforms that bridge the intellectual gap and guide the process of

achieving water security can play important role Capacity Building of Policy Institutions and Water Managers Way forward is in implementation, evaluating , adjusting and

again implementing with minimum time lag

Future Research

1. Climate Change impacts on Water, its availability and variability

2. Positioning for Indus Basin Treaty and Kabul Treaty—research studies

3. Financial options for Hydropower projects

4. Science based decision making and use of drone, nano, satellite and cutting edge technology

Take homes

Hydropower is the cheapest and cleanest option

Hydropower and irrigation water storage vital for National Security

Climate change will challenge the water resource in unprecedented manner

Re-bundling CPEC resources for hydropower

Much un-utilized and un explored potential of canal/river systems to contribute hydropower

Re-aligning Research

Thank You!