Ch 2 project planning and control
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Transcript of Ch 2 project planning and control
The planning and control of capital expenditure is
termed as “capital budgeting”.
Capital budgeting is the art of finding assets that are
worth more than they cost, to achieve a
predetermined goal i.e. optimizing the wealth of a
business enterprise.
The investment proposals need to be related to the
underlying corporate objectives and strategies.
Capital Investment Decision Process
Capital Investment process1. Search for Investment Opportunities
2. Screening the Alternatives
3. Analysis of Feasible Alternatives
4. Analysis of Feasible Alternatives
5. Evaluation of Alternatives
6. Authorization
7. Implementation and Control
Kinds of Projects Balancing Projects
Modernization Projects
Replacement Projects
Expansion Projects
Diversification Projects
Classification of Projects National and international projects
Industrial and non industrial projects
Project based on level of technology
- High technology projects
- Conventional technology projects
- low technology projects
Projects based on size
- large Projects
- Medium Projects
- Small projects
Projects based on ownership
- public sector projects
- private sector projects
- joint sector projects
Projects according to purpose - Balancing Project
- Modernization Projects
- Replacement/renewal projects
- Expansion Projects
- Diversification projects
- rehabilitation ( of sick units) projects
- upgradation projects
- maintenance projects
- Mergers and acquisition
- new project
Forward and Backward
IntegrationVertical integration
Back Integration
It is the creation of facilities for production of raw
material and components required for current
production.
Forward integration
It is the creation of facilities for manufacturing
products for which the current products of the
organization serve as inputs.
Rationale for Diversification To achieve consistent growth and profitability
( by transferring company’s strategic capabilityand providing superior value to customer).
When companies objectives are no longer compatiblewithin the scope of current portfolio (the conditionoccurs when there is decline in demand, highcompetitive pressures, quicker product lineobsolescence)
To enhance the shareholder’s value
The grass is greener on the other side or sheepmentality
Build, Own Operate (B.O.O)
Build, Operate and Transfer (B.O.T)
Lease,Rehabilitate,Operate and Transfer (L.R.O.T)
Engineering Procurement and Construct
Turnkey Contract
Projects Organization structure and management systems Project Organization Structure
Matrix organization structure
Task force organization structure
Benefits of Project Management
Project Management Information System
Managerial planning and control activities can beclassified as
Strategic planning
Tactical planning
Operational control
Level
Project Manager
Managers
Supervisors
Cost Parameters
Budgetary Control
Cost and Cash Inflow Control
Resources Productivity Control
PMIS Control Pyrzamid
Time Schedule ParametersMile Stone
Work Package Control
Activity Control
Use of Computers in Project Management Reporting
Resources management
Cost analysis
Stages in setting up of a project Initial selection of project ideas
a) Project must match with the promoters profile ofqualifications,experience,interest,etc.
b) Rough estimate of project cost and promoterscapacity to mobilize the necessary resources to theproposed project.
c) Clear idea about market size and growth potential.
d) The availability of inputs and proximity of market for final products.
e) Costinvolvedinproduction,administration,and marketing.
f) Availability of technology and plant and machinery.
g) Risks involved with the project.
Selection of Project location Proximity Of Inputs
Proximity Of Market
Availability of Water
Availability Of Transportation
Availability Of Power
Communication Facilities
Government Policies
Manpower Availability
Weather and Climatic Condition
Environmental Factors and Other Regulations
General living Conditions
Selection of Project Site Availability of land
Cost of site
Cost of site preparation and development
Soil and Topography
Selection of Technology Plant Capacity
Principal Inputs
Investment Outlay
Way by other units
Product Mix
Latest Developments
Ease of Absorption
SWOT Analysisa) Internal resourcesb) Availability of funds in capital marketc) Extent of support from banks and financial institutiond) existing and proposed level of investments and its impact on ROI,EPS and
market value of firme) The business and financial risk attached to afirmf) Technology developed internally or possibility to obtain reliable technical
know-how at cheaper costg) Brand loyalty of existing prouctsh) Source of raw material and other infrastructure facilitiesi) Market share,distribution net workj) Severity of competitionk) Cost of production and managerial competencel) Cost of capitalm) Governmental clearances and permissionsn) Macro and micro economic environment in which business operates
Zero date
zero date project means a date is fixed up fromwhich the implementation of the projectsbegins.The progress in implementation of theprojects is monitored by taking zero date as abase for counting the time as well as cost ofproject.
Financial closure
The entrepreneur will prepare and submit adetailed project report called „techno-economicfeasibility report‟ to the financial institution forobtaining term loans for project financing.on thebasis of this report ,he will obtain thegovernmental clearances,statutory permissions.
Project visibility
the project activities starts prior to the zero date.
Much of the time spent on planning the project
A project cannot be seen by the public most of its time
Work break down structure
the total project work is broken down according to
the various componenets and will establish the
connection between various components is termed
as „work breakdown structure‟.
Brown field project
A project implemented in the precints of a working
plant/working facilityis known as „brown field
project(BEP)‟
Resource levelling
Resource levelling is usage of resources during the
project durationwith minimum variation in resource
requirements without extending the project
completion time.
Project execution plan
Project execution plan (PEP) refers to that exercise
of matching the project hardware and software with
the executing agencies through a viable work
system.
CAT AND RAT Schedulea) The various approaches for time scheduling are
normally branded as CAT schedule and RAT schedule.
b) CAT schedule stands for „activity target schedule'. RAT
schedule stands for „reserved activity target schedule‟.
c) The CAT schedule is used for progressing of the
executing agencies whereas the RAT schedule are
those that are to be achieved. the project manager will
try to maintain a distance between two schedules so
that CAT schedule does not swallow the RAT
schedule.
d) A CAT schedule is detailed and developed in squared
network form and RAT schedule is maintained in ‟s‟
curve form.
e) The RAT schedule will contain only the key milestones
whereas the CAT schedule will have all important
activities.
f) The RAT schedule is based on some in built
allowances for delays. This allowance is not to
be disclosed to execution agencies. The RAT
schedule is for taking care of all uncertainties in
execution of projects.
g) If the achievement of key milestones is delayed
beyond the RAT schedule, then only slippage will
be accepted for reporting to the financial
institutions and the general public.
h) The CAT and RAT schedule should be revised
every time the cost estimates are revised to keep
the gap of allowance.
Line of balance (LOB)
o It is a device for planning and monitoring the progress of an order, project or program to be completed on target date.
o Dates are predefined for various major activities like positioning of materials, specific contributory tasks to be accomplished, subassemblies and subprojects are to be completed.
o It is useful control technique.
o It is a more detailed management oriented charting technique for monitoring progress.
Value Engineering Review
It is defined as a “a systematic analysis and evaluationof the technique and functions in the various sphere ofan organization with a view to exploring channels ofperformance improvement so that the value in aparticular product can bettered.
In other words it is an analytical technique, designed to examine all the facets and cost of a product, in order to determine whether or not any item of cost can be reduced or eliminated, while retaining all functional, performance and quality requirements.
Value engineering may be applied in the design and development stage and concentrates mainly on reduction of direct cost of production.
Risk Aware culture
o The project estimates are dependent on so manyassumptions as tosales,profitability,costs,investments,technicalestimates, work performance ,projectimplementation schedules.
o Risk and uncertainty involved
o The risk awareness culture is to be developed at all project management team to fight against any adversaries occur in implementation of the project.
Project procedure manual
o it is required to co-ordinate the various subsystemslike contract management,configuarationmanagement, timemanagemnt,cost,fund,materials,men andcommunications management.
o It is prepared in such a way that interacting agencies are able to see their roles and mutual relationships as per the common goal.
Time and cost trade off
o The project should be completed within its schedule ofimplementation and within the estimated cost.
o The project manger should be conversant with the different time savings and the extra cost involved with project.
o The following three option are available:
1. Most efficient project
2. Scheduled plan
3. Shortest duration plan
Monitoring capital expenditure
the accumulation, monitoring and control of capital expenditure of big project consists of the following steps
1. Budget
2. Allocation of job order No./Capex No
3. Collection of cost against each Capex No
4. Control of cost
5. Proper reporting
Variance and performance analysis
Variance analysis
traditional analysis involves comparison of actual costs with budgeted costs to determine the variance.
Performance analysis (BUGDETED – Actual)
it a modern approach where analysis is done for the project as a whole projects on schedule,behind,and ahead of schedule.
it indicates whether cost of a project as a whole project is as per budget
Network analysis (PERT and CPM)
it is a technique is a technique used for administrationof a project which consists of several activities having adefinite interrelationship among them. Each activityidentified by means of a starting event and a finishingevent so that normal duration of the activity can bedetermined.
o The project manager should decide
a) Which tasks must be done first before others can be started?
b) Which tasks could be done at the same time?
c) Which tasks must be started as soon as possible and completed on schedule if the completion date for the entire project is to be achieved?
Objectives of network analysis
I. To ascertain the normal duration for completion of all the activities comprised in the project
II. To minimize the cost of the project by propermarshalling of the resources
III. To obtain the ‘cost time trade off ’ t
Techniques of network analysis
o PERT
o CPM
Feasibility study report (pre-investment study report) Before a project investment is finalizes, the entrepreneur
will conduct a feasibility study to confirm about thetechno-commercial strength of project and prepares areport called feasibility report.
It contains the followingsa) Study of the configuration of the project idea in all
aspectsb) Identifying the type and size of the project with
justificationc) Study of location
j) Lack of reliable technology
k) Lack of flexibility
l) Financial soundness of participating investors
m) Unforeseen competition
d) Study of demand of products/services
e) Survey of material requirement
f) Project schedule
g) Project cost and sources of finance
h) Profitability and cash flow analysis
I ) Cost benefit analysis
j) Identifying and quantifying risk element
k) Social costs and benefits
l) Study of economic, political and legal environment
Market survey
o Before understanding any new project it is customary toundertake a market survey.
o Market survey is the other name of market research.
The effectiveness of market survey depends on-
i. Potential buyers
ii. Buyers intention
iii. Cost effectiveness
a) cost of identifying buyers
b) buyers willingness to disclose intention
c) buyers propensity to carry out their intention
Invisible walls in project estimationa) Delays in governmental clearances
b) Delays in obtaining sanction of loan from financialinstitutions
c) Reliability of contractors
d) Hurdles from the local people near the project site
e) Political disturbance
f) Foreign exchange rate variation
g) Unable to quantify the risk properly
h) Location disadvantage
i) Uncertainty of markets and change in consumer preferences
J) Lack of reliable technology
k) Lack of flexibility
l) Financial soundness of participating investors
m) Unforeseen competition
Reasons for project failurea) Substantial overrun of the project which makes the
project not feasible to implement further
b) Changes in technology during the implementation of the project
c) Wrongful estimation of cost of project and itsprofitability
d) Lack of experienced management team
e) Lack of delegation of authority and responsibility
f) Lack of proper project monitoring system
g) Failure to obtain government clearances andpermissions
h) Unfaithfulness of the promoter
i) Lack of sufficient knowledge about the project to promoter.
Techniques for project controla) Watch and measure the achievement at short
intervals
b) Ascertain current variances and predict future
variances
c) Ascertain root cause of variances
d) Take actions to offset the ill-effects of past
variances
e) Prevent future potential variances
f) Track and measure the quantitative output and
cost inputs
g) Evaluate targets, output and input in financial terms
h) Special monitoring of essential tasks by using techniques like red lists, hotline reports to draw top management’s attention.
i) Introduction of incentives for good performance
j) Doing away with red-tapism and bureaucratic procedures
k)Periodic review meetings and taking appropriate actions
Incentives in project planning Incentive for export oriented units
a) Liberal import facilities are allowed depending on actual import content of product and F.O.B value of product
b) Customs and central excise duties paid on rawmaterial used for manufacture of export products arereimbursable
c) Raw materials are supplied at controlled prices for specified export products
d) Priority is accorded by railways for transport of goods meant for export
e) Export credit guarantee corporation (ECGC) offers special assistance by way of protecting from credit risk
f)Insurance against loss in export of goods and services.ECGC also provides guarantee to banks and financial institutions to enable exporters to obtain better facilities from them
g)Financial facilities at special concessional rates of interest are given by commercial banks
h)100% foreign equity participation is allowed but the companyshould be an Indian company.
i) Imports of capital goods/components and raw materials are exempted from import duty
j) Single point clearance with simplified procedures
k)Relaxations are allowed in respect of sales tax, property tax,octroi
l)Tax holiday is available for 100% export oriented units
Incentives for units in industrially backward areaa) Central outright grant or subsidy scheme
b) Concessional finance scheme
c) Transport subsidy scheme
Incentives for small scale industriesa) Small scale units need not obtain industrial
licenses for certain category of items manufactured
b) Number of products and services have been exclusively reserved for small scale units.
c) Government provides comprehensive assistance to small entrepreneurs through various organizations like industries development organization.
d) Priority and assistance is provided in allotment of land
e) State finance corporations provides loan
Tax consideration in project planning
since corporate tax is a very vital element, themagnitude and timing of the tax burden associated
with projects should be carefully assessed. The taxincentives and benefits and tax implications have amajor role to play in project investment decision.
Impact of liberalization and globalization on project planning Under the post liberalization economic scenario,
India is facing:
global challenges of advanced technology
Problems concerning energy conservation
Rapid automation
Need to have high productivity and low prices
Issues arising out of efficiency oriented privatization
Challenges of speed and customer orientation
To survive in the globalization situation, the Indian
projects will have to:
be cost effective and inexpensive
Have low capital base
Use advanced technology suitable for Indianconditions
Be safe from pollution and nuclear radiation
Be energy efficient
Increase speed of delivery
Ensure good customer relationship management
All future projects should incorporate adequate
provisions for:
using non-conventional energy, natural gas and coalwhere possible
Partial replacement keeping pace with advancedtechnology
Utmost safety in operation
Conservation of resources
Good quality control
Ensuring excellence of end product
Strategies for staying close to the customer
Sticking to the expertise-core competence
Future projects should aim at:
alleviating poverty
Generating mass employment potential
Raise standards of living and quality of life
Making the country self sufficient in inexpensive essential goods and services
Safe disposal of waste
Adequate environmental protection
Strategic focus in project planning
a) Economies of scale by consolidation
b) Thrust on core business, in other words, expand the business globally where corporate has strength.
c) Upgrading products and technologies to ensurecustomer satisfaction with quality and reliableproducts and services.
d) Reduce product development time and cycle time to bring efficiency.
e) Cost effective solution, cost reduction and increasing value to customers.
f) Clear understanding of customer’s requirement andensuring customers loyalty on-going basis.
g) Down-sizing,delayering and business process re-
engineering to ensure efficiency in operations toservice to customers.
h) Deployment of techniques like total qualitymanagement, six sigma, activity based costmanagement etc.
i) Strategic alliance with Indian and foreign companies,joint ventures with foreign companies, start newbusiness or restore existing business.
Micro and Macro Considerations
At National level
At Sectorial level
At Project level
Macro considerations at national level
a) Overall growth of all sectors
b) Allocation of resources between sectors
c) Boost up private and public sector
d) Allocate the scarce resources
e) Controlling fiscal, monetary framework
f) Maintaining wage policy, exchange rate and inflationary pressure
g) Motivating economic behavior
Micro considerations at sectorial level
a) Ensuring the investment plan
b) Ensuring a balance in implementation of multiple
projects
c) New projects should be kept waiting
d) Rational decisions should be made on the basis of
past experience.
e) Cost benefit analysis
f) The investment plan should able bifurcate expense
in core and non core projects.
Cost and time over runs
pre feasibility stage
a) bureaucratic delays
b) Securing necessary approvals
c) Failure to plan on important resources
Evaluation stage
a) Better evaluation
b) Find lackings
c) Wrong selection of project
d) Wrong economic studies
choice of technology
a) Wrong selection of technology
b) Section of technology on the basis of credit availability by supplier
c) Delay in completing engineering
d) Improper scrutiny
Contracting and procurement
a) Improper preparation of tender documents
b) Wrong selection of vendors
c) More time consumption on importing material
d) Absence of proper quality
e) Poor logistic planning
construction stage
a) Starting construction activities without proper planning
b) Low productivity of contractors
Commissioning and start –up
a) Delays in making available manuals
b) Failure of equipments
c) Defects in installation
Methods to avoid cost and time overrun
1. master schedule/milestone network/master budget
2. Time and resources schedule
3. Procurement time schedule
a) calendar time construction work schedule
b) scheduling of contracting
c) Crashing economic analysis
d) Progress report
e) Fund flow analysis etc
Cost benefit analysis
It is more sophisticated technique recently introducedin long term decision making in capital projectsappraisal.
It is defined as “an analytical tool in decision makingwhich enables a systematic comparison to be madebetween the estimated cost of undertaking of projectand the estimated value and benefits which may arisefrom the operation of such a project.”
CBA and investment decisions
The concept of NPV may not be regarded as entirelyappropriate.
CBA is essentially discounted cash flow analysis for public sector institutions.
For a business assessing a project such comparison with the other investment opportunities currently available.
The only factor which will influence the decision will be those costs and benefit incurred and received privately by the firm
From society point of view road building has effects in the community which confer both costs and benefits on society as a whole e.g. increased traffic may create pollution of air and at the same time create jobs in the area around road
CBA is used to determine
a) Whether or not a specific operation should be undertaken
b) Which of the possible alternative projects should beselected
c) Which time cycle would be most beneficial to the project.
CBA Procedure
1. Determine problem to be considered
2. Ascertain alternative solutions to problem
3. Estimate and analyze costs and benefits
4. Appraise estimated costs and benefits
5. Decide on optimal solution
Techniques of CBA
a) Discounted cash flow techniques
- Net present value(NPV)
- Internal rate of return(IRR)
b) Benefit/cost comparison
c) Benefit/cost ratio
Benefits of CBA
1. Ensure value of money
2. Social cost and benefits
3. Protection from potential enemy
4. Good health
Limitations of CBA
1. Inaccuracy in data input
2. Difficult to forecast
3. Difficult to quantify
4. Difficulty in determining value of cost and benefits
Social cost benefit analysis
‘social cost' is a sacrifice or detriment to society.
‘social benefit’ is a compensation made to the societyin the form of increase in per capita income,employment opportunities,etc.
Social cost benefit analysis (SCBA) is a systematic evaluation of an organizations social performance as distinguished from its economic performance.
It is concerned with the possible influences on the social quality of life instead of economic quality of life.
• It is used to determine
a) Which alternative or choice is socially viable
b) Which alternative is the optimal or the best solution.
Indicators of social desirability of a project
a) Employment potential
b) Foreign exchange earnings
c) Social-cost benefit analysis
d) Capital output ratio
e) Value added per unit of capital
Economic Appraisal Technique of Project
Growing importance of public investment,especially in developing countries govt on development projects, the social cost benefit analysis has received increasing emphasis.
To eliminate the trade offs between growth and equity,investment projects are divided into
a) Capital intensive industrial project
b) Infrastructure investments
c) Agriculture and rural development projects
Economic Rate of Return
Domestic Resource Cost
Effective Rate of Protection