Role of Agriculture to GDP and National per Capita Income ...
Ch 2. National Income Accounting - ebcb · • Three approaches to measuring national income –...
Transcript of Ch 2. National Income Accounting - ebcb · • Three approaches to measuring national income –...
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Ch 2. National Income Accounting
ECO 402
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Key Words• The circular flow• Three approaches to measuring national income
– Production– Income– Expenditure
• Value added• Final goods and intermediate goods• Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national product (GNP)• Nominal vs. Real GDP; GDP deflator• Four components of expenditure: C, I, G, NX• National income accounting identity: Closed economy vs. Open economy• Stocks and flows• Investment (I) in macroeconomics and financial investment
• Inflation: Consumer price index vs. GDP deflator
• Unemployment rate
• Okun’s law
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Gross Domestic Product: Expenditure and Income
Two definitions:– Total expenditure on domestically‐produced final goods and services.
– Total income earned by domestically‐located factors of production.
Expenditure equals income because every dollar spent by a buyer becomes income to the seller.
Expenditure equals income because every dollar spent by a buyer becomes income to the seller.
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Final goods, value added, and GDP
• GDP = value of final goods produced = sum of value added at all stages of production.
• The value of the final goods already includes the value of the intermediate goods, so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double‐counting.
• Value added: The value of output minus the value of the intermediate goods used to produce that output
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NOW YOU TRY:
Identifying value‐added• A farmer grows a bushel of wheat and sells it to a miller for $1.00.
• The miller turns the wheat into flour and sells it to a baker for $3.00.
• The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00.
• The engineer eats the bread.
Compute value added at each stage of production and GDP
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The expenditure components of GDP• consumption, C• investment, I• government spending, G• net exports, NX
An important identity:Y = C + I + G + NX
aggregate expenditure
value of total output
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Consumption (C)– durable goodslast a long time e.g., cars, home appliances
– nondurable goodslast a short time e.g., food, clothing
– serviceswork done for consumers e.g., dry cleaning, air travel.
definition: The value of all goods and services bought by households. Includes:
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Investment (I)• Spending on goods bought for future use (i.e., capital goods)
• Includes:– Business fixed investmentSpending on plant and equipment
– Residential fixed investmentSpending by consumers and landlords on housing units
– Inventory investmentThe change in the value of all firms’ inventories
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Investment vs. CapitalNote: Investment is spending on new capital.
Example (assumes no depreciation): – 1/1/2009: economy has $500b worth of capital
– during 2009:investment = $60b
– 1/1/2010: economy will have $560b worth of capital
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Stocks vs. Flows
A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time. E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2009.”
Flow StockA stock is a quantity measured at a point in time.
E.g., “The U.S. capital stock was $26 trillion on January 1, 2009.”
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Stocks vs. Flows ‐ examples
the govt budget deficitthe govt debt
# of new college graduates this year
# of people with college degrees
a person’s annual saving
a person’s wealth
flowstock
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NOW YOU TRY:
Stock or Flow?
• the balance on your credit card statement• how much you study economics outside of class
• the size of your compact disc collection• the inflation rate• the unemployment rate
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Government spending (G)• G includes all government spending on goods and services..
• G excludes transfer payments(e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services.
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NOW YOU TRY:
An expenditure‐output puzzle?
Suppose a firm
• produces $10 million worth of final goods
• but only sells $9 million worth to consumers.
Does this violate the expenditure = output identity?
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GDPGDP measures
– total income
– total output
– total expenditure
– the sum of value‐added at all stages in the production of final goods
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GNP vs. GDP• Gross National Product (GNP):Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where located.
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP):Total income earned by domestically‐located factors of production, regardless of nationality.
GNP – GDP = factor payments from abroad minus factor payments to abroad
• Examples of factor payments: wages, profits, rent, interest & dividends on assets
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GNP vs. GDP in select countries, 2009
Country GNP GDP GNP – GDP (% of GDP)
Bangladesh $99,391 $89,378 11.2%
Japan $5,198,865 $5,067,526 2.6
United States $14,345,303 $14,256,300 0.6
China $4,937,980 $4,984,731 –0.9
Canada $1,323,476 $1,336,067 –0.9
Mexico $860,849 $874,902 –1.6
Greece $316,267 $329,924 –4.1
Nigeria $155,303 $168,994 –8.1
Ireland $183,174 $227,193 –19.4
GNP and GDP in millions of current U.S. dollars
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Real vs. nominal GDP• GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced.
• Nominal GDPmeasures these values using current prices.
• Real GDPmeasure these values using the prices of a base year.
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U.S. Nominal and Real GDP,1960‐2009
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
(billions)
Nominal GDP
Real GDP(in 2000 dollars)
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NOW YOU TRY:
Real & Nominal GDP
Compute nominal GDP in each year.
Compute real GDP in each year using 2006 as the base year.
2006 2007 2008
P Q P Q P Q
good A $30 900 $31 1,000 $36 1,050
good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205
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Real GDP controls for inflation• Changes in nominal GDP can be due to:
– changes in prices. – changes in quantities of output produced.
• Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities,because real GDP is constructed using constant base‐year prices.
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GDP Deflator• The inflation rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices.
• One measure of the price level is the GDP deflator, defined as
Nominal GDPGDP deflator = 100
Real GDP
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NOW YOU TRY:
GDP deflator and inflation rate
Use your previous answers to compute the GDP deflator in each year.
Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008.
Nom. GDP Real GDP GDP deflator
Inflationrate
2006 $46,200 $46,200 n.a.
2007 51,400 50,000
2008 58,300 52,000
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Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes
EX: If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%.
1. For any variables X and Y,
percentage change in (X Y ) percentage change in X+ percentage change in Y
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Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes
EX: GDP deflator = 100 NGDP/RGDP.
If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.
2. percentage change in (X/Y ) percentage change in X percentage change in Y
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Chain‐Weighted Real GDP
• Over time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically.
• In essence, chain‐weighted real GDPupdates the base year every year, so it is more accurate than constant‐price GDP.
• Your textbook usually uses constant‐price real GDP, because: – the two measures are highly correlated.– constant‐price real GDP is easier to compute.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• A measure of the overall level of prices • Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) • Uses:
– tracks changes in the typical household’s cost of living
– adjusts many contracts for inflation (“COLAs”)
– allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time
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How the BLS constructs the CPI
1. Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods.
2. Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket
3. CPI in any month equals
Cost of basket in that monthCost of basket in base period
100
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The composition of the CPI’s “basket”
15.1%
42.4%
3.8%
17.4%6.2%
5.6%
3.0%
3.1%
3.5%
Food and bev.
Housing
Apparel
Transportation
Medical care
Recreation
Education
Communication
Other goodsand services
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NOW YOU TRY:
Compute the CPI
Basket contains 20 pizzas and 10 compact discs.
prices:pizza CDs
2002 $10 $152003 $11 $152004 $12 $162005 $13 $15
For each year, compute the cost of the basket the CPI (use 2002 as the base year) the inflation rate from the preceding year
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Why the CPI may overstate inflation• Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.
• Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.
• Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured.
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The size of the CPI’s bias• In 1995, a Senate‐appointed panel of experts estimated that the CPI overstates inflation by about 1.1% per year.
• So the BLS made adjustments to reduce the bias.• Now, the CPI’s bias is probably under 1% per year.
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NOW YOU TRY:
Discussion Questions1. If your grandmother receives Social Security, how is she affected by the CPI’s bias?
2. Where does the government get the money to pay COLAs to Social Security recipients?
3. If you pay income and Social Security taxes, how does the CPI’s bias affect you?
4. Is the government giving your grandmother too much of a COLA?
5. How does your grandmother’s “basket” differ from the CPI’s? Does this affect your answer to Q4?
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CPI vs. GDP DeflatorPrices of capital goods:
– included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)– excluded from CPI
Prices of imported consumer goods:– included in CPI– excluded from GDP deflator
The basket of goods:– CPI: fixed– GDP deflator: changes every year
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Categories of the population
• employed working at a paid job
• unemployed not employed but looking for a job
• labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons
• not in the labor forcenot employed, not looking for work
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Two important labor force concepts• unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
• labor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that “participates” in the labor force
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NOW YOU TRY:
Computing labor statistics
U.S. adult population by group, May 2009
Number employed = 140.57 millionNumber unemployed = 14.51 millionAdult population = 235.45 million
Use the above data to calculate the labor force the number of people not in the labor force the labor force participation rate the unemployment rate
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NOW YOU TRY:
Compute percentage changes in labor statistics
Suppose population increases by 1% labor force increases by 3% number of unemployed persons increases by 2%
Compute the percentage changes in the labor force participation and unemployment rates.
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Assignment (Problem 2.4) Place each of the following transactions in one of the four components of expenditure: consumption, investment, government purchase, and net exports.
a) Boeing sells an airplane to the Air Forceb) Boeing sells an airplane to American Airlines.c) Boeing sells an airplane to Air France.d) Boeing sells an airplane to Amelia Earhart.e) Boeing builds an airplane to be sold next year.
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Assignment (Problem 2.8)Consider how each of the following events is likely to affect real GDP. Do you think the change in real GDP reflect a similar change in economic well‐being?a) A hurricane in Florida forces Disney World to shut down
for a month.b) The discovery of a new, easy‐to‐grow strain of wheat
increases farm harvests.c) Increased hostility between unions and management
sparks a rash of strikes.d) Firms throughout the economy experience falling
demand, causing them to lay off workers.e) More high‐school students drop out of school to take
jobs mowing lawns.f) Fathers around the country reduce their workweeks to
spend more time with their children.
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Assignment (Problem 2.7)Abby consumes only apples. In year 1, red apples cost $1 each, green apples cost $2 each, any Abby buys 10 red apples. In year 2, read apples cost $2, green apples cost $1, and Abby buys 10 green apples.a) Compute a consumer price index for apples for each
year. (Assume that year 1 is the base year.)b) Compute Abby’s nominal spending on apples each
year.
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Assignment (Problem 2.7) – cont’dc) Using year 1 as the base year, compute Abby’s real
spending on apples each year. d) Define the implicit price deflator as nominal
spending divided by real spending, compute the deflator for year.
e) Suppose that Abby is equally happy eating red or green apples. How much has the true cost of living increased for Abby? Compare this answer to your answers t parts (a) and (d)