Ch. 2 Key Issue 4Why might (not) the world face an

overpopulation problem?

Reminder

• All handouts due on test day–Demographic transition w/ pop pyramids

on back– Interpreting pop pyramids activity–Demographic momentum–Test review (will give on Friday)

Can the Earth “carry” us?

Carrying capacity- the maximum number of people the environment can support.

PANIC! AHH! WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

• Fears that the world’s population was outpacing the food supply/food production• Adding more fields and crops year by

year BUT having 2 or 3 babies per family!

• Thomas Malthus and Neo-Malthusians vs Marxists

Two Viewpoints:• Malthus on overpopulation– Food grows arithmetically (by adding);

population grows geometrically (by multiplying)–Assumed food production was confined

spatially—i.e., limited to the land we have, and you can only eat what is grown in the country• Today, countries w/o arable land can

import most or all of food they need!

Two Viewpoints• Malthus today: Neo-Malthusians–LDCs have rapid population growth due

to medical technology, but NOT wealth; massive amounts of poor people who cannot feed themselves–Overpopulation stripping world of

resources (clean, air, arable, land, fuel), not just food. Civil wars and violence will increase

Two Viewpoints:

Criticism of Malthus:•Pessimistic (negative) viewpoint• Failure to consider technological

innovation –Fertilizers, mechanization, GMO’s

•Didn’t predict impact of globalization–Trade between countries to get what they

need•Overpopulation a regional instead of

global problem?

Two viewpoints• Criticisms– Friedrich Engels (Marxist/Communist)• World has enough resources to feed population

if shared equally• Under capitalism, workers do not control the

food and do not make enough to pay for it–World is better off with 7 billion = more

consumers and more jobs– Large population = power, more young men

for military

What does the graph show about possible overpopulation? Does it help or hurt Malthus?

Figure 2-25

Controlling Population Growth

• NIR can decline for only two reasons: drop in CBR or increase in CDR–I don’t think we would want to see an

increase in death rate…Unless you’re Malthus

• So, what is the most effective way to decrease CBR?

Two Ways of Reducing CBR1. The country becomes more

economically developed (Stage 4-5).–Children are an economic/cultural burden

in developed cities– IMR would decrease with improved

medicine2. Use of contraceptives– Faster results–Diffused by MDCs

Problems with Contraceptives• Low status of women keeps them

from having a choice to use• Women regard high number of

children as having high status in society• Religious opponents• Political reasons- abortions made

illegal

Which method is better?• While contraceptives are a faster

method to reducing CBR’s, it faces more roadblocks (see last slide). • But economic development will take

longer (moving from stages 2 and 3 to 4). • Therefore, overpopulation could be

seen as a regional problem (specific to one country or area), not a global one…yet

How can Gov’ts affect population change?• 3 policy types: Expansive, eugenic, restrictive• Expansive Policies- encourage large families,

raises NIR– Aging and declining countries could institute

these policies– Tax breaks and other monetary measures• Russia: $10,000 to women who birth 2nd or 3rd

child• Ulyanovsk- National Conception Day (9/12)-

Free Car!• Sweden- racier TV shows at night

How can Govt’s affect population change?

• Eugenic Policies- favors one racial/ethnic group over another–Nazis- Holocaust–US?- pre civil rights treatments of

Blacks/Af Ams– Japan- nearly homogenous (same)

population—strict immigration policies–Discrimination- higher taxes, less land, etc.

How can Govt’s affect population change?• Restrictive policies- reduce the NIR–Toleration of birth control, prohibit large

families–China- one-child policy (has been relaxed

recently)• Parents were penalized for having two-

fines/extra taxes, housing, education• Increased gender selected abortions;

orphaned girls and resulted in a gender imbalanced population (reason they relaxed it)

Reasons for Infant Mortality*–More than 1/5 lack access to clean drinking

water or human-waste disposal facilities–Can see relation of high IMRs and high CDRs in

a country (maps)• Physical health of mother is key– LDC Mothers are: uneducated, exhausted from

work, malnourished, suffering from disease – Do not know how to cure diarrhea– Mother’s Index- 10 measurements of well-being

for mothers• Confirms poverty is huge factor in health of

women and children

IMR in US*

• US is 2nd highest in newborn death rate (die w/in first month)–Premature and low birth weight babies– SIDS

• Higher rates for minorities • Smoking during pregnancies• Regional differences: South highest,

West and Northeast lowest

Child Mortality

• Death of children between 1-5• Main causes: caloric and protein

deficiency early in life

Life Expectancy

• Lower figures in poor countries represent high IMR

• AIDS in Africa keeps life expectancy numbers low in some countries

• Shows us that children are hit hardest in poorer countries

World Health Threats• The Epidemiologic Transition roughly

follows the Dem. Tran. by tracking changes in the leading causes of death (CDR) in each stage of the Dem. Tran.– (helps explains why death rate is falling at

each stage in the Dem. Tran.)

Stage 1• Pestilence and famine –Black Plague–Pandemics –(High CBRs needed to offset high

CDRs)

Stage 2• Receding (retreating) pandemics–Improved sanitation and medical

advances during the Industrial Revolution decreased the spread of diseases.–(Lowers CDR’s)

Stage 3 • Degenerative (gradual

deterioration) diseases–Heart disease and cancer –(Slight decrease in CDR because

people can live with these)

Stage 4

• Delayed degenerative diseases–People can survive cancer and heart

attacks longer through new medical advances

• Contagious diseases are less common in stages 3 and 4- medicines and built-up immune system

• (Longer life expectancy = aging population)

Stage 5?

• Predicting the return of contagious diseases which will increase death rates.

• Strains of vaccine-resistant illnesses• Poverty keeps people from affording

treatment (stage 2 countries)• Improved travel can spread diseases and

start new pandemics• (CDRs greater than CBRs?)

The Most Lethal Infectious Disease: AIDS

Figure 2-33