CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and Adaptation

Presented by Taka Hiraishi on behalf of CGE

at the

EGTT Seminar on the development and transfer of environmentally sound technologies for adaptation to

Climate Change

Tobago, Trinidad & Tobago, 14-16 June, 2005

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Contents

• Vulnerability and Adaptation in Non-Annex I National Communications

• Consultative Group of Experts on Non-Annex I National Communications (CGE)

• Technology Needs Assessment – viewed by CGE• CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and

Adaptation: Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop

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Vulnerability and Adaptation in non-Annex I National Communications

(NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex)

• Para 28: Non-Annex I Parties shall, in accordance with Article 12, para 1(b) and (c), of the Convention, provide to the COP information on the general steps taken or envisaged towards formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, and any other information …...

• Para 29: In doing so, non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being undertaken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.

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NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex (cont’d): Methods

• Para 30: Non-annex I Parties may use appropriate methodologies and guidelines they consider better able to reflect their national situation for assessing their vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, provided that these methodologies and guidelines are consistent, transparent and well documented.

• Paragraph 31: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to use, for the evaluation of adaptation strategies and measures, appropriate methodologies they consider better able to reflect their national situation, provided that these methodologies are consistent, transparent and well documented.

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NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex (cont’d): More information.

• Para 32: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on the scope of their vulnerability and adaptation assessment, including identification of vulnerable areas that are most critical

• Para 33: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to include a description of approaches, methodologies and tools used, including scenarios for the assessment of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, as well as any uncertainties inherent in these methodologies Para 34: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on their vulnerability to the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change in key vulnerable areas. Information should include key findings, and direct and indirect effects arising from climate change, allowing for an integrated analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change Para 35: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on and, to the extent possible, evaluation of, strategies and measures for adapting to climate change, in key areas including those which are of the highest priority

• Para 36: Where relevant, Parties may report on the use of policy frameworks, such as national adaptation programmes, plans and policies for developing and implementing adaptation strategies and measures.

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The CGE: Its Mandate

• Under decision 3/CP.8, the Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) is mandated to: (a) examine National Communications (NC) with the view to

improving the consistency of information provided relative to Vulnerability & Adaptation (V & A), Mitigation activities and GHG inventory;

(b) note the reporting of other information under the new guidelines 17/CP.8 such as transfer of technology;

(c) identify and assess technical problems and constraints;(d) provide technical advice and support, by organizing and

conducting workshops, including hands-on training workshops at the regional or sub-regional level; and

(e) Provide technical advice to the SBI. . .

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Members of the CGE

• The CGE comprises 24 experts as follows:– Five members from each of the regions of non-

Annex I Parties, namely Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean;

– Six members from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention (Annex I) Parties, including one from countries with economies in transition;

– One member from each of the three international organizations with relevant experience in providing technical assistance to non-Annex I Parties in the preparation of national communications.

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Thematic Groups of the CGE

To facilitate its work, the CGE created four thematic groups:

(a) Vulnerability and Adaptation

(b) Greenhouse Gas Inventory

(c) Mitigation

(d) Cross-Cutting Issues

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V&A Thematic Group Members

Ms. Madeleine Diouf, Senegal

Mr. Carlos Fuller, Belize

Mr. Mahendra Kumar, UNEP

Ms. Marilia Manjate, Mozambique

Mr. Alexander Pisarenko, Ukraine

Mr. Arthur Rolle, Bahamas

Mr. Othmar Schwank, Switzerland

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Technology Needs Assessment – viewed by CGE

• During the Top-up phase many NA1 Parties conducted Technology Needs Assessment (TNA).

• Financial, institutional and policy needs were addressed for technology options proposed under TNA.

• Project proposals and /or ideas were identified under the TNA.

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Sectors Identified during the TNA Exercise

• The sectors that some Parties felt the need to evaluate technology were;(a) water resources

(b) forestry

(c) agriculture

(d) coastal zone

(e) energy

(f) transport, and

(g) tourism.

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CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and Adaptation

Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop

• At the Hands-on Training Workshop (Maputo, Mozambique, 18-22 April 2005), the CGE provided training on vulnerability and assessments for the African Region to determine the vulnerability of the following sectors; – water, health, coastal zones and

agriculture.

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Maputo Training Workshop (cont’d)

• 40 hours of training over a 5-day period was given to 55 participants.

• Fundamental information, modelling softwares and tools for V&A were provided.

• Information was presented on the experience and know-how by representatives from Kenya, Burkina Faso, Lesotho, Egypt and the Seychelles.

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Training materialsTraining materials

• Such as: . . .

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Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

• May only be feasible based on outputs from a few GCMs

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MAGICC/SCENGEN• MAGICC is 1-D model of

global T and SLR• Based on IPCC TAR• SCENGEN uses pattern

scaling for 17 GCMs• Yield

– Model by model changes

– Mean change– Intermodel SD– Interannual variability

changes

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IPCC Data Distribution Center

• IPCC Data Distribution Centre appears to be the best site for climate model data

• Observed climate data 1901-1990– Gridded to 0.5 x 0.5°– 10 and 30 year means

• GCM data from– CCC (Canada)– CSIRO (Australia)– ECHAM4 (Germany)– GFDL-R30 (U.S.)– HadCM3 (UK)– NIES (Japan)

• Can obtain actual (not scaled) GCM output

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Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water Resources

• Precipitation amount– Global average increase – Marked regional differences

• Precipitation frequency and intensity– Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et

al., 2002)

• Evaporation and transpiration– Increase total evaporation– Regional complexities due to

plant/atmosphere interactions

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Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water Resources (continued)

• Changes in runoff– Despite global precipitation increases,

areas of substantial runoff decreases

• Coastal zones– Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers– Severe storm-surge flooding

• Water quality– Lower flows, could lead to higher

contaminant concentrations– Higher flows could lead to greater

leaching and sediment transport

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Agriculture: Practical Use of Models and Tools

• What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable and may thus require special attention? – crop models (e.g., DSSAT)

• Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – irrigation models (e.g., CROPWAT)

• Will climate significantly affect domestic agriculture? – model integration; GIS integration (e.g., deriving response functions)

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Health: Methods

• Baseline climatology determined• COSMIC was used to generate Zimbabwe-specific

scenarios of climate change; changes were added to baseline climatology

• Outputs from COSMIC were used as inputs for the MARA/ARMA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) model of climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission

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Health: Other Models

• MIASMA– Global malaria model

• CiMSiM and DENSim for dengue– Weather and habitat-driven entomological

simulation model that links with a simulation model of human population dynamics to project disease outbreaks

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Also at Maputo

• The draft terms of references for the development of training materials for vulnerability and adaptation assessments were discussed.

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Recommendations from the Maputo Workshop

• Based on the success of the Maputo workshop, to conduct a similar one in Latin America and the Caribbean.

• The Secretariat to seek financial support to enable a full complement of participants to attend.

• To develop and include into the V&A training materials a matrix of the strengths and weaknesses of methodologies/ tools to assess V&A, including suitability under different circumstances;

• To widen the scope of the training materials to cover all major significant impacts of climate change,

• To ensure that the models used for the training are available in the public domain and can be easily demonstrated; and

• To ensure that the V&A training materials are updated as new climate change regional models are made available.