CGE TRAINING MATERIALS - VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

CHAPTER 6

Water resources

Chapter Objectives and Expectations

• Having read this presentation, in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should:

a) Have an understanding of potential hydrological impacts of climate change on water resources and how to assess those impacts

b) Be able to identify the various stakeholders involved in the water sector and their potential influence on the water sector and water planning

c) Have gained an overview of methods, tools and data required for conducting impact assessment

d) Have gained knowledge on different adaptation options available for water resources

e) Be familiar with different inputs and outputs of the WEAP model using a hypothetical river basin, and how such outputs are used in impact assessments.

Outline

• Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources

• Drivers and potential impacts

• Methods, tools and data requirements to assess vulnerability in water resources

• Adaptation responses by systems and sectors

Effective V&A Assessments

• General questions:

a) What is the assessment trying to influence?

b) How can the science/policy interface be most effective?

c) How can the participants be most effective in the process?

• General problems:

a) Participants bring differing objectives/ expertise

b) These differences often lead to dissention/ differing opinions.

Effective V&A Assessments (continued)

• General questions:

a) What is the assessment trying to influence?

b) How can the science/policy interface be most effective?

c) How can the participants be most effective in the process?

• General problems:

a) Participants bring differing objectives/ expertise

b) These differences often lead to dissention/ differing opinions.

Effective V&A Assessments (continued)

• To be valuable, the assessment process requires:

a) Relevancy

b) Credibility

c) Legitimacy

d) Consistent participation

• It is an interdisciplinary process:

a) The assessment process often requires a tool

b) The tool is usually a model or suite of models

c) These models serve as the interface

d) This interface is a bridge for dialogue between scientists and policy-makers.

Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change

• Precipitation amount:

a) Global average increase

b) Marked regional differences

• Precipitation frequency and intensity:

a) Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al., 2003)

• Evaporation and transpiration:

a) Increase total evaporation

b) Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere interactions.

Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change (continued)

• Changes in run-off

a) Despite global precipitation increases, areas of substantial run-off decrease

• Coastal zones:

a) Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers

b) Severe storm-surge flooding

• Water quality:

a) Lower flows could lead to higher contaminant concentrations

b) Higher flows could lead to greater leaching and sediment transport.

Fifteen-model mean changes in (a) precipitation (%), (b) soil moisture content (%), (c) run-off (%), and (d) evaporation (%). To indicate consistency of sign of change, regions are stippled where at least 80% of models agree on the sign of the mean change. Changes are annual means for the scenario SRES A1B for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. Soil moisture

and run-off changes are shown at land points with valid data from at least ten models. Source: Bates et al. (2008)

Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change (continued)

Africa Example – ECHAM4/OPYC

Africa Example – GFDLR30

Impacts: Soil Moisture

• Decreases in the sub-tropics and the Mediterranean region

• Increases in East Africa, central Asia and some other regions with increased precipitation

• Decreases also occurring at high latitudes, where snow cover diminishes.

Impacts: Run-off and Stream Flow

• Significant regional variation in run-off and stream flow:

a) Run-off reduced in southern Europe

b) Run-off increased in south-east Asia

c) Stream flows in high-latitude rivers increase

d) Stream flows in the Middle East, Europe and Central American tend to decrease.

Impacts: Coastal Zones

• Increased inundation and coastal flooding causing salinization of groundwater and estuaries

• Changes in the time and volume of freshwater run-off affecting salinity, sediment and nutrient availability

• Changes in water quality may come as a result of the impact of sea level rise on storm-water drainage operations and sewage disposal in coastal areas.

Impacts: Water Quality

• Higher water temperatures may exacerbate many forms of pollution

• Changes in flooding and droughts may affect water quality through sediments, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens, pesticides and salts

• Sea level rise is projected to extend areas of salinization of groundwater and estuaries.

Impacts: Groundwater

• Surface water variability directly tied to groundwater variability in unconfined aquifers

• Increased abstraction from population growth and reduced surface water availability will likely result in declining groundwater levels.

Impacts: Demand, Supply and Sanitation

Climate change will likely add further stress to water service issues including: supply, demand and governance.

Water Resources – A Critical V&A Sector

• Often critical to both managed and natural systems

• Human activity influences both systems

Natural systems

External pressure

State of system

Little control of processes

ManagedsystemsExternal

pressure Product, good or service

Process control

Example: Agriculture Example: Wetlandsservices

What Problems Are We Trying to Address?

• Water planning (daily, weekly, monthly, annual):

a) Local and regional

b) Municipal and industrial

c) Ecosystems

d) Reservoir storage

e) Competing demand

• Operation of infrastructure and hydraulics (daily and sub-daily):

a) Dam and reservoir operation

b) Canal control

c) Hydropower optimization

d) Flood and floodplain inundation.

Water quantityWater quality

Seasonality of flowRegulation

Water for agriculture

Domestic water

Water for industry

Water for nature

Water for recreation

The Water Resource Sector Water’s “Trade-Off” Landscape

Water Resources from a Services Perspective

• Not just an evaluation of rainfall-run-off or streamflow

• But an evaluation of the potential impacts of global warming on the goods and services provided by freshwater systems.

Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use

Recre-

ation, aesth. beauty

Trans-port

Power gener.

Nutr. cycl-ing

Regen. of soil fertility

Water for ag., urban, indust.

Har-vest. biota

Flood/

drought

mitig.

Water purifi-

cation

Ero-sion

con-trol

Habitat/

biodi-versity

Bay

Delta

Lower Rivers

Upper Rivers

Recre-

ation, aesth. beauty

Trans-port

Power gener.

Nutr. cycl-ing

Regen. of soil fertility

Water for ag., urban, indust.

Har-vest. biota

Flood/

drought

mitig.

Water purifi-

cation

Ero-sion

con-trol

Habitat/

biodi-versity

Bay

Delta

Lower Rivers

Upper Rivers

Freshwater Ecosystem Services

Ideal Water Situation

• Adequate quantity

• Appropriate timing of its availability

• Appropriate quality.

What do we do to achieve this desired water situation?

A summary of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

Mismatch Between Water Demand and Supply

• Attributes of the mismatch:

a) Adequate Quantity

b) Appropriate timing of its availability

c) Appropriate quality

d) Reasonable price

• What impacts would these mismatches have on:

a) Environment

b) Economy

c) Society

• Adaptation issues:

a) What are the most effective measures to reduce this mismatch.

Adaptation Responses by Systems and Sectors

• Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry

• Human health

• Water supply and sanitation

• Settlements and infrastructure

• Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation

• Gender.

Water resource adaptation in agriculture

• Adoption of varieties/species with increased resistance to heat shock and drought

• Modification of irrigation techniques

• Adoption of water efficient technologies to “harvest” water and conserve soil moisture

• Modification of crop calendars, i.e. timing or location of cropping activities

• Implementation of seasonal climate forecasting.

Water Resource Adaptation in Human Health

• Malnutrition and water scarcity may be the most important health consequences of climate change

• Health impact assessments often reveal the opportunities to embed the health effects of any adaptation strategy in the water sector, such as those in water supply and sanitation.

Water Supply and Sanitation Adaptation

• Construction of new storage reservoirs

• Using alternative water sources, such as groundwater or desalination

• Rainwater harvesting as well as controlled reuse

• Use of decentralized systems.

Adaptation in Settlements and Infrastructure

• Adaptive responses are likely to be very expensive in built up areas. Adaptation should be carefully considered in the context of:

a) Settlements in high-risk locations, such as coastal and riverine areas, due to flood and storm damages and water quality degradation as a result of saline intrusion

b) Settlements whose economies are closely linked to a climate-sensitive water-dependent activity, such as irrigated agriculture water related tourism.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply

• Construction/modification of physical infrastructure:

a) Canal linings

b) Closed conduits instead of open channels

c) Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system

d) Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems

e) Raising dam wall height

f) Increasing canal size

g) Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage

h) Inter-basin water transfers.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Adaptive management of existing water supply systems:

a) Change operating rules

b) Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply

c) Physically integrate reservoir operation system

d) Coordinate supply/demand.

Water Supply Adaptation – Policy, Conservation, Technology

• Domestic:

a) Municipal and in-home re-use

b) Leak repair

c) Rainwater collection for non-potable uses

d) Low flow appliances

e) Dual supply systems (potable and non-potable)

• Agricultural:

a) Irrigation timing and efficiency

b) Lining of canals, closed conduits

c) Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent

d) High value/low water use crops

e) Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems

f) Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water.

• Industrial:

a) Water re-use and recycling

b) Closed cycle and/or air cooling

c) More efficient hydropower turbines

d) Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers

• Energy (hydropower):

a) Reservoir re-operation

b) Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)

c) Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations

d) Low head run of the river hydropower

e) Market/price-driven transfers to other activities

f) Using water price to shift water use between sectors.

Water Supply Adaptation – Policy, Conservation, Technology

Water Problem Solving Approach

1. Diagnosing:

i. Identifying entry point

ii. Identifying lead agency

iii. Stakeholder analysis

iv. Establishing a coordination and facilitation committee

v. Situation analysis: Social including gender and poverty; economic; environmental

including ecosystem approach.

2. Visioning:

i. Problem tree analysis: Cause and effects of root problem

ii. Objective Tree Analysis: Main cause is converted into objective of strategy

Identifying entry point.

Water Problem Solving Approach

3. Strategising:

i. Scenario development:

• A selection of possible development options: Framework identification; content

identification; strategy preparation.

4. Planning:

i. Plan preparation:

• Action plan and budget

• Responsibility matrix

• Scheduling

• Monitoring targets and indicators.

Water Problem Solving Approach

5. Implementing:

i. Preparation of workplans and budgets and general administrative and financial

management

ii. Capacity development

iii. Institutional strengthening

iv. Strengthening the enabling environment: Recalibrating policy and legal

instruments for water resources management

v. Data collection.

6. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), and documentation:

i. M&E using indicators

ii. Documentation of lessons learned and best practices.

METHODS, TOOLS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS

Key Elements of the Analysis

Which policy makers, planners, investors, implementers, water users, affected stakeholders, researchers, civil societies should be involved?

The River System

Rivers, Watersheds and Aquifers

Water Use Sectors Issues

Fishery

Navigation

Recreation

What is the current water demand and

supply situation?

How might socio-economic

development influence water

demand and supply?

How might socio-economic and climate change development

influence water demand and

supply?

How might climate change development

influence water demand and

supply?

Linking Supply with Demand Issues

What are the

hydrologic linkages?

What are the current and

future implications

of these linkages?

Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies

• Hydrologic models (physical processes):

a) Simulate river basin hydrologic processes

b) Examples – water balance, rainfall –run-off, lake simulation, stream water quality models

• Water resource models (physical and management):

a) Simulate current and future supply/demand of system

b) Operating rules and policies

c) Environmental impacts

d) Hydroelectric production

e) Decision support systems (DSS) for policy interaction.

Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies (continued)

• Economic models:

a) Macroeconomic:

Multiple sectors of the economy

General equilibrium – all markets are in equilibrium

b) Sectoral level:

Single market or closely related markets (e.g., agriculture)

c) Company level

Farm-level model (linear programming approach)

Microsimulation

Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models

• Planning:

a) WEAP21 (also hydrology)

b) Aquarius

c) SWAT

d) IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)

e) RIBASIM

f) MIKE 21 and BASIN.

Referenced Water Models (continued)

•Operational and hydraulic:

•HEC

a) HEC-HMS – event-based rainfall-run-off (provides input to HEC-RAS for doing one-dimensional flood inundation “mapping”)

b) HEC-RAS – one-dimensional steady and unsteady flow

c) HEC-ResSim – reservoir operation modelling

•WaterWare

•RiverWare

•MIKE11

•Delft3d.

Current Focus – Planning and Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change

• Select models of interest (Deployed on PC; extensive documentation; ease of use):

a) WEAP21

b) SWAT

c) HEC suite

d) Aquarius

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models

• AQUARIS advantage: Economic efficiency criterion requiring the reallocation of stream flows until the net marginal return in all water uses is equal

• Cannot be climatically driven.

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued)

SWAT management decisions on water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields with reasonable accuracy on ungauged river basins. Complex water quality constituents.

•Rainfall –run-off, river routing on a daily time step.

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued)

WEAP21 advantage: seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management:

•Can be climatically driven.

Physical Hydraulic Water Management Model

• HEC-HMS watershed scale, event-based hydrologic simulation, of rainfall – run-off processes:a) Sub-daily rainfall –

run-off processes of small catchments.

Overview WEAP21

•Hydrology and planning

•Planning (water distribution) examples and exercises

•Adding hydrology to the model

•User interface

•Scale

•Data requirements and resources

•Calibration and validation

•Results

•Scenarios

•Licencing and registration

You can create multiple scenarios and use this box to switch between them.

Use the View bar to switch between your analysis and its results.

Data are organized in a tree structure that you edit by right-clicking here.

Your data are shown here as either a graph or a table.

Enter or edit your data by typing it here.

Hydrology Model

• Critical questions:

a) How does rainfall on a catchment translate into flow in a river?

b) What pathways does water follow as it moves through a catchment?

c) How does movement along these pathways impact the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of river flows?

Planning Model

• Critical questions:

a) How should water be allocated to various uses in time of shortage?

b) How can these operations be constrained to protect the services provided by the river?

c) How should infrastructure in the system (e.g., dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve maximum benefit?

d) How will allocation, operations, and operating constraints change if new management strategies are introduced into the system?

A Simple System with WEAP21

60

40

An Infrastructure Constraint

70

3010 Unmet

A Regulatory Constraint

70

3010 Unmet

Different Priorities

• For example, the demands of large farmers (70 units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario, whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units) may be Priority 1 in another.

0

40

60

10 unmet

Different Preferences

• For example, a centre pivot operator may prefer to take water from a tributary because of lower pumping costs.

30

10

90

0

Example

• How much water will the site with 70 units of demand receive?

Example (continued)

• How much water will be flowing in the reach between the Priority 2 diversion and the Priority 1 return flow?

Example (continued)

• What could we do to ensure that this reach does not go dry?

What Are We Assuming?

• We know the quantity of water flowing at the source of each river

• Water is flowing naturally into or out of the river downstream

• We know with certainty the water demands

• Basically, that this system has been removed from its hydologic context.

What Do We Do Now?

Add Hydrology

And this is the Climate Interface

Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical Framework in WEAP21

City

Irrigation

The WEAP Two-Bucket Hydrology Module

Smax

Rd z1

Interflow = f(z1,ks, 1-f)

Percolation = f(z1,ks,f)

Baseflow = f(z2,drainage_rate)

Et= f(z1,kc, , PET)

Pe = f(P, Snow Accum, Melt rate)

Plant Canopy

P

z2

L

u Surface run-off =f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)

Sw

Dw

One Two-Bucket Model per Land Class

Some Comments

• The number of parameters in the model is fairly limited and is at least related to the biophysical characteristics of the catchment

• The irrigation routine includes an implicit notion of field level irrigation efficiency

• Seepage can only pass from the lower bucket to the river, not the other way.

This Last Point Leads to a Stylized Groundwater Representation

hd

lw Sy,Ks

Percolation

Pumping

Some Comments

• The geometry of the aquifers in question is representative, not absolute

• The stream stage is assumed to be invariant in this module

• Although the “water table” can fluctuate, it ignores all local fluctuations.

You can click and drag elements of the water system from the legend onto the schematic directly.

Use the menu to do standard functions such as creating new areas and saving.

Your can zoom your schematic in or out by sliding the bar here.

GIS layers can be added here.

Use the View bar to switch between your data and its results.

The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface

Languages:

Interface Only

English

French

Chinese

Spanish

You can create multiple scenarios and use this box to switch between them.

Use the View bar to switch between your analysis and its results.

Data are organized in a tree structure that you edit by right-clicking here.

Your data are shown here as either a graph or a table.

Enter or edit your data by typing it here.

The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface

WEAP’s Temporal and Spatial Scale

• Time step: daily, weekly, monthly, etc.

• No routing, because all demands satisfied within the current time step

• Time step at least as long as the residence time of period of lowest flow

• Larger watersheds require longer time steps (e.g., one month)

• Smaller watersheds can apply shorter time steps (e.g., 1-day, 5-day, 10-day).

Some Ideas on Catchment Size

• Small: < 100 km2

• Medium: 100 to 1,000 km2

• Large: 1,000 to 10,000 km2

• Very large: 10,000 to 100,000 km2

Data Requirements

• Prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed time series):

a) Time series data of riverflows (headflows)

b) River network (connectivity)

• Alternative supply via physical hydrology (watersheds generate riverflow):

a) Watershed attributes Area, land cover . . .

b) Climate Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and relative

humidity.

Data Requirements (continued)

• Water demand data:

a) Municipal and industrial demand:

Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism, etc.)

Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita, use/socio-economic group)

b) Agricultural demands:

Aggregated by area (# hectares, annual water-use/hectare)

Disaggregated by crop water requirements

c) Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements).

Example Data Resources

• AQUASTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations): <http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm>

• UN-Water statistics: <http://www.unwater.org/statistics.html>

• Global Hydrology Resource Centre (NASA): <http://ghrc.msfc.nasa.gov/>

• Global run-off Data Centre (NASA): <http://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/Home/homepage__node.html>

Calibration and Validation

• Model evaluation criteria:

a) Flows along mainstream and tributaries

b) Reservoir storage and release

c) Water diversions from other basins

d) Agricultural water demand and delivery

e) Municipal and industrial water demands and deliveries

f) Groundwater storage trends and levels.

Modelling Streamflow

Reservoir Storage

0 . E + 0 0

1 . E + 0 6

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O B S A F

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Change units and sub-categories of results, and change the style of the graph here.

Select values for the y-axis here.

Select results to be viewed, including which scenario here.

Looking at Results

WEAP21 – Developing Climate Change and Other Scenarios

• The scenario editor readily accommodates scenario analysis for example:

a) Climate change scenarios and assumptions

b) Future demand assumptions

c) Future watershed development assumptions.

Licensing WEAP

• Go to <www.weap21.org> and register for a new licence (free for government, university, and non-profit organizations in developing countries)

• Register WEAP under Help menu and select “Register WEAP”.

Adaptation Responses by Systems and Sectors

• Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry

• Human health

• Water supply and sanitation

• Settlements and infrastructure

• Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation

• Gender.

Water Resource Adaptation in Agriculture and Food Security, Land Use and Forestry

• Adoption of varieties/species with increased resistance to heat shock and drought

• Modification of irrigation techniques

• Adoption of water efficient technologies to “harvest” water and conserve soil moisture

• Modification of crop calendars, i.e. timing or location of cropping activities

• Implementation of seasonal climate forecasting.

Water Resource Adaptation in Human Health

• Malnutrition and water scarcity may be the most important health consequences of climate change

• Health impact assessments often reveal the opportunities to embed the health effects of any adaptation strategy in the water sector, such as those in water supply and sanitation.

Water Supply and Sanitation Adaptation

• Construction of new storage reservoirs

• Using alternative water sources, such as groundwater or desalination

• Rainwater harvesting as well as controlled reuse

• Use of decentralized systems.

Water resource adaptation in settlements and infrastructure

• Adaptive responses are likely to be very expensive in built up areas. Adaptation should be carefully considered in the context of:

a) Settlements in high-risk locations, such as coastal and riverine areas, due to flood and storm damage, and water quality degradation as a result of saline intrusion

b) Settlements whose economies are closely linked to a climate-sensitive water-dependent activity, such as irrigated agriculture or water-related tourism.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply

• Construction/modification of physical infrastructure:

a) Canal linings

b) Closed conduits instead of open channels

c) Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system

d) Reservoirs/mydroplants/delivery systems

e) Raising dam wall height

f) Increasing canal size

g) Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage

h) Interbasin water transfers.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Adaptive management of existing water supply systems:

a) Change operating rules

b) Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply

c) Physically integrate reservoir operation system

d) Coordinate supply/demand.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology:

a) Domestic:

• Municipal and in-home re-use

• Leak repair

• Rainwater collection for non-potable uses

• Low flow appliances

• Dual supply systems (potable and non-potable)

b) Agricultural:

• Irrigation timing and efficiency

• Lining of canals, closed conduits

• Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent

• High value/low water use crops

• Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems

• Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water.

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)

• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology (continued):

a) Industrial: Water re-use and recycling Closed cycle and/or air cooling More efficient hydropower turbines Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers

b) Energy (hydropower): Reservoir re-operation Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat) Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations Low head run of the river hydropower Market/price-driven transfers to other activities Using water price to shift water use between sectors.

REGIONAL EXAMPLES

THE CARIBBEAN

Climate Change Vulnerability

Mean Monthly Rainfall in the Caribbean

Examples of Rainfall Variability

Recent Drought Impacts in Selected Caribbean States

Projected Rainfall Changes in the Caribbean

EASTERN EUROPE

Changes in annual precipitation in Uzbekistan

Source: Eurasian Development Bank. 2009: The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Asia

Contribution of glacier to major rivers runoff

Source: Eurasian Development Bank. 2009: The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Asia

Challenges of decline river flow in Amu Darya

Source: UNEP. 2011: Environment and Security in the Amu Darya Basin

Hydrograph at Lower Amu Darya River at Nukus

Hydrograph at Upper Amu Darya (Panji) River

Mismatch of water supply and demand in the Amu Darya

Source: UNEP. 2011: Environment and Security in the Amu Darya Basin

Sarez Lake Level Fluctuations

Source: Tajikistan’s Second National Communication, 2008

Challenges of transboundary water management

Source: UNEP/GRID ARENDAL, April 2005

Temperature changes and variability in Uzbekistan

Changes in crop yields in Kapakalpastan

ASIA

Natural Hazards Affecting Cambodia Respondents

Source: Thou C. C. (2009)

Planning Horizon Plan for Cambodia Adaptation

Source: Thou C. C. (2009): Climate change impacts on water environment and adaptation option in Cambodia