CFG Core Strategies
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Transcript of CFG Core Strategies
WEWEARE ARE
DIFFERENT DIFFERENT Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC and are
Not deposits, Not insured by FDIC or any governmental agency, Not guaranteed by the financial institution, Subject to risk, May lose valueRaymond James Financial Services Inc. is independent of Christopher
Financial Group
“Facts are stubborn things; and
whatever may be our wishes, our
inclinations, or the dictates of our
passions, they cannot alter the state
of facts and evidence” John Adams
Who we areWith our personalized approach to wealth
planning, accumulation and preservation. Your dreams take effort and energy, leaving little time for wealth management. We can
take that responsibility off your hands while helping you achieve your goals.•We help you simplify the demands of
managing your wealth in order to enable you to devote time to your business, your
personal endeavors and your family. We organize your assets, investment strategy,
insurance, and your financial and estate plans to help simplify, consolidate and integrate every aspect of your financial
future.
Over 16 years of experience in the financial services industry
Independent Advisor Representative of Raymond James Registered Independent Advisor
Named to the Premier Advisor program (a recognition at previous firm)
President and founder of Christopher Financial Group LLC
Accredited Wealth Management Advisor
Chartered Retirement Planning counselor
Founder/CEO- Tower Financial
Portfolio ManagementThomas V Christopher
Raymond James: Different by Design
Raymond James is recognized as one of the nation’s leading investment management firms. We’re different by design: in our culture of independence, financial advisors are uniquely free to provide advice that is both personalized and unbiased. Investors are uniquely free to thrive.
Here’s how we’re different:1.Because clients’ best interests can be overlooked if advisors are paid more to sell proprietary products, Raymond James gives financial advisors the freedom to offer truly independent advice.
2.Because predetermined solutions don’t necessarily serve every investor’s needs, Raymond James advisors review each client’s goals independently and comprehensively.
3.Because successful associations between investor and advisor are based on mutual confidence and shared faith, Raymond James has created a culture that fosters long-term, trusting relationships.
&
Independence is...
in·de·pen·dent
Function: adjectiveDate: 1611
(1) :not subject to control by others
(2) : not affiliated with a larger controlling unit
Webster’s dictionary defines
We have complete Freedom from conflict
of interest
-Accumulate
wealth
I am most often asked how to:
-Preserve your
wealth-Minimize your
taxes
How effective has the
mainstream approach
been at accomplishing
your goals?
*source www.standerdandpoors.com **past performance is not assurance of future results. The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale, an investor may lose their principal.
The Standard & Poor’s index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size. you can
not invest directly in any index.
The S & P 500 experienced almost uninterrupted growth 1/1/1990 – 03/01/2000
THE UPSIDE
•455% Return*
Huge expansion in the number of individual stockholders
• Ownership Grows from 15% to 55%
January, 1990 March, 2000
S&P 500 Index
The Standard & Poor’s index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size.
The Downside
*Source: www.standardandpoors.com**Past Performance is no assurance of a future resultThe market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such
that upon sale, an investor may lose their principalThe Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500), NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are
unmanaged indexes generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly.
Market loses $9 trillion in 31 months*
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Index loses 37%
• NASDAQ 100 Index loses 79%• S&P 500 Index loses 49%Impact on average investor
Average loss of 47.4%
* The Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly
S&P 500 Index
March, 2000 October, 2002
The Results
If you were 65 and retired March 2000,
you walked into a 47.4% decline!
*returns calculated on a monthly compounding schedule ** no investment strategy can protect against losses or assure profits***the market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale an investor may lose principal
Is “Buy and Hold” an answer for the long term?
82 months to break even @ 10% investment return per year*
Let’s talk about “Buy and Hold”
161 months to break even @ 5% investment return per year*
It took the S&P 500 seven years and two months to recover to its pre-bear market peak! **(3/24/2000-5/30/2007)
*returns calculated on a monthly compounding schedule ** no investment strategy can protect against losses or assure profits***the market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale an investor may lose principal
Huge expansion in the number of individual stockholders
•Direct, Indirect: 401(k)s, Mutual Funds
The Upside
S & P 500 experiences almost uninterrupted growth (10/9/2002 – 10/9/2007)
102% Return*
*Source: www.dorseywright.com**Past Performance is no assurance of a future result*** The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale, an investor may lose their principal
*The Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly**Past Performance is no assurance for future results. The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, including possible loss of principal
S&P 500 Index
October 9th 2002
March 9th 2007
“It’s deja vu all over again”
Yogi Berra
The downsideMarket loses $11 trillion in 17 months*Dow Jones Industrial Average Index loses 57%NASDAQ 100 Index loses 52%S&P 500 Index loses 57%
Impact on average investor Average loss of
56.78% *Source: www.marketwatch.com “US Stocks Slip as Early Rally Evaporates,” 3/6/2009.*Source: www.standardandpoors.com**Past Performance is no assurance of a future resultThe market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale, an investor may lose their principalThe Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500), NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are unmanaged indexes generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly.
*The Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly**Past Performance is no assurance for future results. The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, including possible loss of principal
S&P 500 Index
March, 2007 October, 2009
When the next correction When the next correction happens will you be ready?happens will you be ready?
There will be another correction like 2008! When? Who knows? But it will happen!
There is a strategy capable of making money when the unpredictable happens.
How does the mainstream explain what happened?
“The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie-- deliberate, contrived and dishonest -- but the myth -- persistent, persuasive and unrealistic. John F
Kennedy
From the home officeThe top 5 myths from mainstream advisors
5) Buy and Hold. You have to experience the downs to experience the ups in the market
4)The Market is “On Sale” we should buy more
3) “I only diversify my portfolio I won’t get hurt”
2) “I only buy Blue Chip Stocks, I won’t get hurt”
1) “It was the Perfect storm, it was a once in a lifetime event. It will not happen again”
*Asset allocation and diversification provide no protection from loss. **Past performance is no assurance for future results. ***The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation, including possible loss of principal.
****No investment strategy can protect against losses or assure profits.
Reality: Bear Markets Hurt!!!
In 47 of 79 years (60% of the time) people have been putting their own money back in their pocket. All new growth occurred in just 40% of the time period.
The Facts: •Since 1929: 16 bear markets have
occurred
•Average frequency of a new bear market since 1929: every 4.8 years•Average depth of a bear market: 38.24% decline•Average duration of a bear market: 17 monthsAverage time lost making up a bear market loss: 60 months(including last bear #15)
• Bear Markets defined: 20% decline or greater in the S&P 500 Index
*Source: www.standardandpoors.com** The Standard & Poor’s Stock Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly
“Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it”
George Santayana
Lets look at Lets look at some some
StatisticsStatistics
Sobering factsSobering factsIn March of 1999 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,006. In October of 2007 the Dow closed at 14,164. Then in August of 2010 the Dow closed at 10,150.
In March of 2000 the NASDAQ Composite closed at 5,048. Then in August of 2010 it closed at 2,153!
After ten years of your accounts standing still, are you starting to think buy and hold only works for people who live forever!
Dow Component 2000-2003 Performance Back to Even
• Stock A -45% Unknown!• Stock B -63% Unknown!• Stock C -67% 2005• Stock D -68% Unknown!• Stock E -59% Unknown!• Stock F -40% Unknown!• Stock G -36% 2004• Stock H -60% 2007• Stock I -70% Unknown!• Stock J -84% Unknown!• Stock K -67% Unknown!• Stock L -65% Unknown!*Source: Dorsey Wright and Associates:
www.dorseywright.com*
*Performance data does not include reinvested dividend distributions*
Dow Component 10/9/07-3/9/09 PerformanceBack to Even
• Stock A -33% Unknown!
• Stock B -82% Unknown!
• Stock C -26% Unknown!
• Stock D -56% Unknown!
• Stock E -61% Unknown!
• Stock F -5% 2008
• Stock G -30% Unknown!
• Stock H -86% Unknown!
• Stock I -46% Unknown!
• Stock J -51% Unknown!
• Stock K -48% Unknown!
• Stock L -50% Unknown!
*Source: Dorsey Wright and Associates: www.dorseywright.com*
*Performance data does not include reinvested dividend distributions* The Dow is an unmanaged index and can not be invested in directly.
S&P 500 CorrectionsSeptember 1929 through March 2009 (79 years)
Bear Market Duration Decline Time to Break Even
1. September 1929 – June 1932 33 months -86.7%302 months 2. July 1933 – March 1935 20 months -33.9%28months 3. March 1937 – March 1938 12 months -54.5%107 months 4. November 1938 – April 1942 41 months -45.8%77 months 5. May 1946 – March 1948 22 months -28.1%49 months 6. August 1956 – October 1957 14 months -21.6%25 months 7. December 1961 – June 1962 6 months -28.0%22 months 8. February 1966 – October 1966 8 months -22.2%16 months 9. November 1968 – May 1970 18 months -36.1%39 months10. January 1973 – October 1974 21 months -48.2%91 months11. November 1980 – August 1982 21 months -27.1%25 months12. August 1987 – December 1987 3 months -33.5%23 months13. July 1990 – October 1990 3 months -19.9%7 months 14. July 1998 – October 1998 3 months -21.2%3 months15. March 2000 – October 2002 31 months -49.1%87 months16. October 2007 – March 2009 17 months -56.78% Unknown!
*Source: www.standardandpoors.comthe Standard & Poor’s stock index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market
without regard for company size and cannot be invested in directly
How does the mainstream deal with Bear
markets?
“A buy-side bias” – Arthur Levitt, former SEC Commissioner* From the Wall Street Journal “Point of View: Analysis through Rose-Colored Glasses” 10/21/1990
Stock brokers are not necessarily also fee-based investment advisors!
They have No “sell-side”
discipline Don’t want to issue “sell” recommendations on their biggest client’s stocks because…
Incentive to support investment banking business by selling stocks their brokerage house has underwritten
Stock salesmen have an incentive to sell proprietary productsSuch In-house mutual funds
How do real fee-based advisors handle Bear
Markets?
**The market for securities is subject to fluctuation, such that upon sale an investor may lose their principal. past performance does not guarantee future results.
-If it happens again, what is your plan to seek preservation for my assets from a fall....
Remember It has happened 16 times in the last 80 years!
With a “Sell Side” discipline
-Experience, process-based systems, and total independence from investment banking bias-Never Ever let income tax avoidance dictate risk management or override principal preservation
-
Our Investment Methodology
How We Manage Risk-Trend Based Technical
Analysis
-Trailing Stop Losses-Investment Selection with Strict Position Sizing
1. What to Buy2. Company
Management3. Earnings Quality4. Price/Earnings Ratio5. Product Acceptance
1. When to Buy2. Trend Analysis3. Relative Strength4. Momentum5. When to Sell
What is Fundamental Analysis?
What is Technical Analysis?
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
What is Technical Analysis?
Supply and Demand We all understand
the basic forces of supply and demand.
The same forces that affect prices in the supermarket also affect prices in the stock market.
Stocks, sectors, and asset classes move in and out of favor just like produce in the supermarket.
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
What is Trend Following?
Trend followingFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In finance trend following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of long-term moves that seem to play out various markets. The system aims to work on the market trend mechanism and take benefit from both sides of the market enjoying the profits from the ups and downs of the stock or futures markets. Traders who use this approach can use current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts to determine the general direction of the market and to generate trade signals. Traders who subscribe to a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it.
Original point and figure chart
circa 1800’s
Charles Dow
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
Chart Source: www.dorseywright.com
Citigroup (C)
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
Did the fundamental analysts learn from the 2000-2002 Technology
Bubble?
The following is a quote from the February 9th New York Times article, “Why
Analysts Keep Telling Investors to Buy”
“At the top of the market, they urged investors to
buy or hold onto about 95 percent of the time. When
stocks stumbled, they stayed optimistic. Even in
November, when credit froze, the economy stalled
and financial markets tumbled to their lowest
levels in a decade, analysts as a group rarely
said sell. “
Chart Source: www.dorseywright.com
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
Chart Source: www.dorseywright.com
© Dorsey, Wright & Associates 2009
Chart Source: www.dorseywright.com
Trend Following Technical Analysis can be used for:
-Common stocks-Mutual funds-Exchange traded funds
Our Investment Selection and
Position Sizing“Protect yourself from the unknown,
by knowing what you own”-iShares©
A complex stop-loss order in which the stop is set at some fixed percentage below the market price. If the market price rises, the stop loss price rises proportionately, but if the stock price falls, the stop loss price doesn't change.This technique allows an us to set a limit on the maximum possible loss without setting a limit on the maximum possible gain. A trailing stop helps preserve profits while providing downside management. We employ trailing stop losses set between 7% and 10% of the last high close.Example-
XYZ is purchased for $55 per share.Stop loss is set at $51.15
Trailing Stop Losses
Summary“Buy and
Hold” Does not work!“Blue Chips” Did not work
“I Only Diversify” Does not work
What works? Trend Following
Technical Analysis
Trailing Stop Losses
Investment Selection with strict Position Sizing
How we keep you How we keep you organizedorganized
Your updated financial status is automatically integrated into your comprehensive financial and estate plan, continuously providing you
with a meaningful, up-to-date analysis.
We give you the ability to organize all your advisors and assets and consolidate them in the same place at
the same time. Imagine a single platform through which all your financial matters may be managed. Your
assets. Your private documents. Your financial and estate plan. Your retirement and cash flow models.
Thank you!Thank you!
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(610)897-2698
This presentation is the intellectual property of Christopher Financial Group LLC/Thomas Christopher any use or reproduction in any part is strictly prohibited.
the information contained in this presentation does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. the information has been obtained from the sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is
accurate or complete. any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. any
opinions are those of CFG and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. investments mentioned may not be
suitable for all investors. past performance may not be indicative of future results. you should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. inclusion of all indexes is for illustrative
purposes only. keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs and fees, which will affect actual investment
performance. individual investor’s results will vary. past performance does not guarantee future results.