CF Industries Investor Day 11 Jun 2013

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Investor Day

June 11, 2013

A tightly focused strategy…

… well executed

NYSE: CF

All statements in this communication, other than those relating to historical facts, are “forward-looking statements.”

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of

assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ

materially from such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our

expectations include, among others: the volatility of natural gas prices in North America; the cyclical nature of our

business and the agricultural sector; the global commodity nature of our fertilizer products, the impact of global supply

and demand on our selling prices, and the intense global competition from other fertilizer producers; conditions in the

U.S. agricultural industry; reliance on third party providers of transportation services and equipment; difficulties in the

implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system and risks associated with cyber security; weather

conditions; our ability to complete our recently announced production capacity expansion projects on schedule as

planned and on budget or at all; risks associated with other expansions of our business, including unanticipated

adverse consequences and the significant resources that could be required; potential liabilities and expenditures

related to environmental and health and safety laws and regulations; our potential inability to obtain or maintain

required permits and governmental approvals or to meet financial assurance requirements from governmental

authorities; future regulatory restrictions and requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions; the seasonality of the

fertilizer business; the impact of changing market conditions on our forward sales programs; risks involving derivatives

and the effectiveness of our risk measurement and hedging activities; the significant risks and hazards involved in

producing and handling our products against which we may not be fully insured; our reliance on a limited number of

key facilities; risks associated with joint ventures; acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism; difficulties in

securing the supply and delivery of raw materials, increases in their costs and or delays or interruptions in their

delivery; risks associated with international operations; losses on our investments in securities; deterioration of global

market and economic conditions; our ability to manage our indebtedness; and loss of key members of management

and professional staff. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our

filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent periodic reports filed on Form 10-K

and Form 10-Q, which are available in the Investor Relations section of the CF Industries Web site. Forward-looking

statements are given only as of the date of this communication and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise the

forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by

law. This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP

measures, which is available in the Appendix.

2

Safe Harbor Statement

Steve Wilson

Chairman and

Chief Executive Officer

3

Overview


… well executed

Agenda

4

8:00am Steve Wilson Introduction

8:20am Doug Hoadley Agriculture and Fertilizer Background

8:50am Phil Koch Natural Gas and Logistics

9:20am Break

9:30am Bert Frost Sales and Market Development

10:00am Tony Will Operations and Capacity Expansion

10:30am Break

10:40am Dennis Kelleher Financial Management

11:10am Steve Wilson Summary

11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Investment Thesis

Demand growth underpinned by population growth, higher protein diets

Search for higher yields leads to consistent consumption

5

Strategy Tightly Focused On Core Strength As a Nitrogen and Phosphate Producer

North America (Canada and the U.S.) imports almost 40% of its nitrogen needs

Long-term North American natural gas costs estimated to be $3-$5/MMBtu

Significant offshore capacity operates at the high end of the cost curve

Positioned to serve the world’s largest and most productive corn growing area

Extensive North American production and distribution footprint

Transportation assets provide logistical flexibility

Peer-leading financial performance

Disciplined capital allocation decisions

Experienced talented management team

Long-Term

Industry Growth

Favorable

Industry

Environment

Operational

Advantages

Excellent

Execution

Tightly Focused Strategy

Core strength as a nitrogen and phosphate producer

– Seven nitrogen complexes near major customers and with low cost feedstock

– Vertically integrated and well-matched phosphate mine and fertilizer plant

Dedicated to safety and operational excellence

– Emphasis on safe operations and environmental stewardship

– Ongoing investments in physical assets enables very high capacity utilization

Integrated logistics system

– Utilization of pipeline, waterway, rail and truck transportation modes

– Over 70 in-market storage terminals and warehouses in a 20-state region

Strong sales and marketing presence

– Deep and long-term customer relationships

– Informed and rigorous process for managing product prices and order book

Prudent financial management

– Focus on cash flow

– Investment grade credit ratings and metrics

– Record of effective capital management

6

CF Industries Has Consistently

Outperformed Peers

A tightly focused strategy to capitalize on nitrogen

advantages and optimize phosphate business

Well executed by experienced talented management

7

CF Industries management has a record of consistent

excellent execution. Meet the company’s senior leadership

team….

8


… well executed

9

Doug Barnard

Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary

Total Business Experience: 31 Years

Joined CF Industries: 2004


… well executed

10

Bert Frost

Senior Vice President, Sales and Market Development




… well executed

11

Wendy Jablow Spertus

Senior Vice President, Human Resources




… well executed

12

Dennis Kelleher

Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer




… well executed

13

Phil Koch

Senior Vice President, Supply Chain




… well executed

14

Tony Will

Senior Vice President, Manufacturing and Distribution




… well executed

Excellent Execution

15

Gross Margin as % of Sales EBITDA as % of Sales(1)

Return on Equity (2) Return on Invested Capital (2)

(1) Calculated using Agrium, Yara and PotashCorp. self-reported EBITDA. Mosaic EBITDA calculated from its reported financials, consistent with the methodology used for CF Industries as described on slide 110.

(2) See slide 111 for a definition of invested capital, Return on Invested Capital and Return on Equity.

(3) See slide 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

(3)

(3) (3)

49

54 55

17 16 16

32

27 28

55

45 45

23 20 20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

CF Industries Agrium Mosaic PotashCorp Yara

34 34 34

19

14 14

22

14 13

23

15 15 17

14 14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


34

31

33

21 22 21 21

14 15

39

21 21

27

22 19

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


47 51 52

28 27 27 32

28 28

49

43 43

22 25

21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


Cash Returned to Shareholders

16

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of EBITDA (2)

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of Equity Market Value (1)

(1) See slide 110 for a definition of Equity Market Value.


(3) See slide 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

(3)

(3)

♦ $218 million of dividends since

2010

♦ $2.25 billion of share repurchases

since 2011

♦ $2.25 billion remaining on 2012

($3.0 billion) authorization as of

April 30, 2013

♦ Recognized for effectiveness of

share repurchase program 23

34

16

40

24

13

24

16 14

19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M


6

9

3

7

3 2

2 2

3

4

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M



… well executed

History of Value Creation

Management track record of bold and disciplined actions

– 2005: Initial Public Offering at $16/share

– 2008: Announced and completed $500M share repurchase program

– 2009: Bid for Terra Industries

– 2010: Closed Terra Industries acquisition

– 2011: Expenditure of $1B for share repurchase program

– 2012: Expenditure of $500M to complete $1.5B share repurchase program;

Announced C$0.9B agreement to purchase outstanding interests in CFL;

Authorized new $3B share repurchase program;

Announced $3.8B capacity expansion project

– 2013: Expenditure of $750M for share repurchases under the $3B authorization (as of April 30);

Completed acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL

Tightly focused strategy based on thorough study and analysis

Disciplined decisions based on rigorous DCF analysis and stress testing

Effective execution demonstrated by financial results and share price performance

17

CF Industries’ shareholders have been rewarded by

management’s disciplined strategic decisions

18

(1) Excludes 34% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that was owned by Viterra. CFL operations were treated as a consolidated variable interest entity in CF

Industries Holdings, Inc. financial statements.

(2) Acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL closed April 30, 2013.

(3) Approved ammonia debottleneck projects that are in process.

(4) New plant construction projects.

CF Industries Nitrogen Volumes and Shares Outstanding

2.6

3.6 0.1 0.3 6.6 0.1

1.7 8.5

46.0

52.5

59.0

65.5

72.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 Pre-Terra

Acquisition (1)

TerraAcquisition

PreviouslyExecuted

Debottlenecks

34% CFL (2) Current PlannedDebottlenecks

(3)

New Plants(4)

Total 2016

Jan. 29,

2010

Million

Nutrient Tons

Million Shares

Outstanding

Share Count

Capital Allocation Impact

April 30, 2013

April 30, 2010

Jan. 31,

2013

Increased nitrogen volume

over 150% since 2010

Projects approved in 2012

and underway will lead to

total nitrogen volume

increase of 225% since 2010

Share repurchase activity

has reduced share count

17% since Terra acquisition

Remaining share repurchase

authorization of $2.25 billion

as of April 30, 2013

19

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%

1600%

8/10/2005 8/10/2006 8/10/2007 8/10/2008 8/10/2009 8/10/2010 8/10/2011 8/10/2012

+1,090%(1)

(1) Share price appreciation from IPO through 3/31/13

38% CAGR Since IPO(1)

CF Industries Share Price Performance


… well executed

Agenda

20




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Doug Hoadley

Director, Agri-Business Analysis

21

Agriculture and

Fertilizer Background


… well executed

22

Agricultural and

Nitrogen Themes

Corn prices around $5 per bushel is a “sweet spot” for fertilizer industry

− Farm income remains high

− Crop returns continue to favor corn and plantings are projected to continue at 92+

million acres

− Corn demand should recover in 2013, especially for feed and exports, and show

growth through 2016

− U.S. fertilizer demand is forecast to decline slightly next year, but remain at historically

high levels through 2016

World nitrogen demand shows consistent 2% growth

− Global nitrogen demand growth is equivalent to over 6 million product tons of urea or

about 4-5 new plants each year (net of closures)

− Global 2013 urea cost curve suggests strong support at $320-$340/st at U.S. Gulf

− Although numerous projects have been announced for the next three years, historically

only about 50% to 60% come onstream

− These nitrogen capacity additions are not expected to have a material impact on the

hypothetical margin available to North American producers

♦ North America currently imports about 38% of its total nitrogen use from offshore

– For planning purposes, CF Industries assumes that 6 million tons of new ammonia

capacity will be added in North America, mostly in 2016 to 2018

– This new capacity should displace offshore nitrogen imports, which would decline by

about 40%

23

The Season Average Corn Price has

risen over the last decade due to:

− Increasing feed, food and export

demand

− Adoption of Renewable Fuels Standard

(RFS)

− Reduced production due to drought

conditions

U.S. corn price is projected to decline

to around $5 per bushel in 2013 as

production recovers due to high

planted acreage and higher yields

− Farmers and ethanol producers are

highly profitable at this level

− Demand is projected to recover with

lower prices, especially for feed and

exports

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E

Source: USDA, CF

Marketing Year

U.S. Corn Prices (U.S. Dollars per Bushel)

Corn Prices Moderating

In the Near Term

24

The 2013 estimated average corn

budget shows that corn returns over

variable costs are $163 per acre higher

than soybean returns, based on an

average of March-April new crop

futures for 2013

Farmer economics favor corn planting

over soybeans in 2014

Based on current new crop 2014

futures, returns over variable costs

are $194 per acre higher for corn than

soybeans

Assumptions include: − Trend yields

− March/April average for new crop prices and

for 2014 calculation using corn price of $5.60

per bushel and soybean price of $12.80

− USDA costs of production and CF Industries’

forecast of costs for 2014

Source: USDA, CF

Calendar Year

Economics Favor Corn Planting

U.S. Farmer Anticipated Returns

over Variable Costs (U.S. Dollars per Acre)

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F

Corn Corn-on-Corn Soybeans

25

The 2012/13 stocks-to-use ratio is

expected to be the lowest since 1995

The 2013/14 stocks-to-use ratio is

expected to increase, but is highly

dependent on the actual yield

2013 plantings and emergence have

been delayed substantially and are

expected to result in lower planted corn

acres compared with USDA’s

Prospective Plantings report

Production forecast: − CF Industries forecasts a 155 bu/acre corn yield

and a $5.00 season average corn price

− If corn yields decline to 150 bu/acre, the stocks-

to-use ratios could fall to 8-10% and support

prices above the current forecast

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E

158 bu/acre and 97M acres



Source: USDA, CF

Marketing Year

Corn Stocks Expected

to Increase Modestly

U.S. Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio

97M acres

96M acres

96M acres

26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F 2016F

Exports Feed DDG Ethanol FS&I Demand for U.S. corn is forecast

to recover in 2013 and continue

to show growth through 2016

− Ethanol use is forecast to increase

to meet the RFS standard in 2013

− DDG demand, a by-product of ethanol

production, is forecast to continue to

grow for feed use

− Feed and Residual use is forecast

to increase

Exports in 2013 are forecast to nearly

double the 40-year record low level in

2012, with growth forecast to continue

through 2016

Strong Growth in U.S.

Corn Demand

U.S. Corn Demand (Thousand Bushels)

Source: USDA, CF

Marketing Year

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014F 2016F

CF Industries forecasts 2013 U.S. corn

acreage at 96 million acres, but

continued planting delays could result

in lower acreage

2014 U.S. corn acreage is expected to

be between 92-97 million acres and is

highly dependent on future weather

and demand response

CF Industries is forecasting corn

planted acreage to remain at 92+

million acres through 2016

U.S. nitrogen demand is forecast to

remain high as lower corn acreage is

offset by an increase in planting to

other crops along with a modest

increase in application rates

Source: USDA, CF

Marketing Year

27

U.S. Corn Plantings to Remain

Above 90 Million Acres

U.S. Corn Acreage (Million Acres)

28

U.S. nitrogen fertilizer demand is

projected at 13.3 million nutrient tons in

2013, near the record high level in 2012

U.S. nitrogen fertilizer demand is

projected to decline slightly for 2014

due to lower corn plantings

− Decline expected to result in fewer

imports, but no change in domestic

production

Nitrogen demand is expected to remain

at historically high levels through 2016

with modest growth in application rates

on corn to increase yields

Phosphate demand is forecast to be

nearly unchanged over the time period

at around 4.3-4.4 million nutrient tons Source: AAPFCO, CF

Fertilizer Year Nutrient Demand (Million Nutrient Tons)

U.S. Fertilizer Demand

Remains High

N P2O5 K20 Total

2010 12.3 4.1 4.5 20.8

2011 12.8 4.3 4.6 21.8

2012 13.4 4.4 4.7 22.5

2013 13.3 4.3 4.6 22.3

2014 13.2 4.4 4.7 22.3

2015 13.3 4.4 4.8 22.5

2016 13.4 4.5 4.9 22.7

29

Since 2005, farm revenue has

increased while fertilizer costs as a

percentage of farm revenue have

decreased

As a percent of corn revenue, U.S.

fertilizer costs are projected to stay

below the 10-year average of 20%,

indicating fertilizer offers a good return

on investment

Assumptions for 2014 include:

− Average annual corn price of $5.00 per

bushel

− Fertilizer costs are projected at $121 per

acre

− Corn yield of 155 bushels per acre

Source: USDA, CF

Calendar Year

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F

Revenue Fertilizer Percent Ten Year Average

Fertilizer Remains a Good Value

U.S. Corn Fertilizer Cost as

Percent of Revenue Fertilizer

Percent

Farm Revenue

(Million U.S. Dollars)

30

Global nitrogen demand growth is

projected to slow from the prior decade

to a rate of about 2.0% per year, or

about 3 million nutrient tons a year

The annual nitrogen demand growth is

equivalent to over 6 million product tons

of urea or about 4-5 new plants each

year (net of closures)

Industrial use is projected to grow at

3.4% per year, largely due to increasing

demand for emissions control

Nitrogen demand growth is expected to

be strongest in developing regions,

particularly FSU, Asia, and Latin

America Source: IFA, FERTECON, CF

Calendar Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Fertilizer Industrial

CAGR: 2.3%

Fct. CAGR:

2.0%

Stable Long-Term

Demand Growth World Nitrogen Demand

(Million Nutrient Tons)

31

Global capacity is expected to

increase by 14% between 2013

and 2018

The increase in capacity is expected

to reduce the global operating rate

from over 80% to about 78%

However, a large portion of the

expansions are set to occur in China,

where continued government export

controls and off-setting plant closures

are expected

Operating rates outside China are

expected to remain high and near

today’s levels of 84%

Source: FERTECON, CF

Calendar Year

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Capacity Production

Op. Rate Op. Rate Ex-China

World Nitrogen Utilization

Operating Rates Remain High

Million Tons Operating Rates

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014F 2016F

32

CF Industries examines global urea

capacity ex-China to reflect the

world trade situation more

accurately

China’s export policy is more

important than its actual capacity

Based on announced projects, urea

production capacity would be

expected to increase by

approximately 22 million tonnes,

ex-China, by 2016

Lists of future projects typically

overestimate actual capacity

brought online by as much as 50%


Calendar Year

Net Additions to Global Urea Capacity, ex-China (Million Product Tonnes)

Significant Capacity

Additions “Announced”

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2008 2010 2012

Forecast Actual

CF Industries compared FERTECON’s

list of future urea projects at the

beginning of each year to the actual

capacity that came onstream

− On average, 50% of the total forecast

capacity came onstream by the end of the

year

IFA recently noted a similar situation with

their nitrogen capacity list

− Comparing the 2012 list with the current

list, IFA stated:

“At least 25 urea projects were delayed,

accounting for 60% of the announced

capacity by 2016. These delays have

removed up to 18 Mt of planned urea

capacity that had been foreseen for 2016

in the forecast of May 2012.”

Actual Additions Well Below

“Announced” Additions


Calendar Year

33

FERTECON Urea Capacity Additions, Ex-China (Million Metric Tonnes Per Year)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 50 100 150 200

North American Production

Costs Well Below Urea Floor Price

34


Costs of product delivered to the

U.S. Gulf based on each country’s

cash costs and freight rates

Urea global floor price is estimated

to range from $320 per ton to $340

per ton delivered to the U.S. Gulf

based on Chinese and Eastern

European production

Eastern Europe and “other FSU”

producers are the marginal

producers during China’s high

export tax season

A typical U.S. producer has cash

production costs of about $150 per

ton at $4/MMBtu natural gas

CF Industries has significant

margin opportunity at the projected

urea floor price

$/ton

Demand 183 M Tons

Hypothetical Floor Margin

Alg

eria

Mid

dle

East

Nort

h A

merica

Oth

er

Afr

ica

Trin

idad +

Venezuela

Oth

er

Latin

Am

erica

Russia

Low

R

ussia

Base

South

east

Asia

South

Asia

Chin

a B

ase C

oal

Easte

rn E

uro

pe

Weste

rn E

uro

pe

Oth

er

FS

U

Ukra

ine O

PZ

U

kra

ine D

F G

roup

Chin

a (

Gas)

Chin

a L

ow

Coal

Egypt

2013 World Urea Production Costs (Estimated $U.S. per Short Ton Delivered U.S. Gulf)

Million

Product

Tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 50 100 150 200 250

35


For 2018, urea production costs are

expected to rise for most producers as

feedstock costs increase

The urea floor price is estimated

to be approximately $350 per ton

delivered to the U.S. Gulf based

on Chinese and FSU production

− Assumes new capacity of approximately

6 million tons

A typical U.S. producer is expected

to have cash production costs of $180

per ton at $5/MMBtu natural gas

CF Industries should continue to have

significant margin opportunity at the

projected urea floor price

$/ton

Demand 203 M Tons

Hypothetical

Floor Margin

Alg

eria

Mid

dle

East

Nort

h A

merica

Oth

er

Afr

ica

Trin

idad +

Venezuela

Oth

er

Latin

Am

erica

Russia

Low

R

ussia

Base

South

east

Asia

South

Asia

Chin

a B

ase C

oal

Easte

rn E

uro

pe

Weste

rn E

uro

pe

Oth

er

FS

U

Ukra

ine O

PZ

Ukra

ine D

F G

roup

Chin

a (

Gas)

Chin

a L

ow

Coal

Egypt

2018 World Urea Production Costs (Projected $U.S. per Short Ton Delivered U.S. Gulf)

Additions Not Expected

to Change Floor Price Materially

Million

Product

Tons

(Thousand Tons per Year, Announced)

36

Current Producers

Expanding Capacity

Source: Company announcements and industry publications

♦ Existing and some new entrant producers currently plan to add nearly 6 million

tons of new ammonia capacity in the next five years

Company Location Products Start-up Capacity (000 t) Notes

Potash Corp. Geismar, LA Ammonia Online 500 Ammonia Restart/Debottleneck

Coffeeville Resources Coffeeville, KS UAN Online 400 UAN Upgrade

Rentech Nitrogen Dubuque, IA Ammonia 2014 67 Ammonia Expansion/Debottleneck

Potash Corp. Lima, OH Ammonia, Urea 2015 80 Ammonia

73 Urea Debottleneck

Agrium Borger, TX Ammonia, Urea 2016 640 Ammonia

525 Urea Debottleneck

CF Industries Port Neal, IA Ammonia, Urea, UAN,

DEF 2016

849 Ammonia

1.35 mil t Urea Brownfield/Debottleneck

CF Industries Donaldsonville, LA Ammonia, Urea, UAN,

DEF 2016

1.25 mil t Ammonia

2.4 mil t various Brownfield/Debottleneck

Koch Various Ammonia, Urea 2016-2018 1.0+ mil t Urea (Enid)

2.0 mil t various Debottleneck

Iowa Fertilizer Co. (OCI) Weaver, IA Ammonia, Urea, UAN,

DEF 2017

850 Ammonia

1.5-2.0 mil t various $1.3 billion, Greenfield

Dyno Nobel (IPL) Waggaman, LA Ammonia 2017 880 Ammonia Site at Cornerstone

Chemical (formerly Cytec)

Mosaic Faustina, LA Ammonia 2017 800 Ammonia Existing site

Yara Belle Plaine, SK Ammonia, Urea, UAN,

DEF 2017

800 Ammonia

1,300 Urea (DEF) Existing site

(Thousand Tons per Year, Announced)

37

♦ New entrants and some producers have proposed to add approximately another

7-8 million tons of new ammonia capacity in the next five years

Greenfield Projects Face High

Capital Costs

Company Location Products Start-up Capacity (000 t) Notes

U.S. Nitrogen/Austin Powder Greene County, TN Ammonia, AN 2014 60 Ammonia

126 AN liquid

Ammonia upgraded

to AN

Dakota Gasification Beulah, ND Ammonia, Urea 2016 360 Urea Brownfield at Synfuels

Plant

Ohio Valley Resources Rockport, IN Ammonia, Urea, UAN, DEF 2016 800 Ammonia, 950

UAN, 90 DEF Greenfield

Northern Plains Nitrogen (North

Dakota Corn Growers) Western ND Ammonia, Urea, UAN, DEF 2017

800 Ammonia

1.0+ mil t various $1.5 billion, greenfield

Summit Power Group Texas Ammonia, Urea 2017 700 Urea Coal gasification,

Greenfield

CHS Spiritwood, ND Ammonia, Urea, UAN 2018 770 Ammonia Greenfield

KIT/IFFCO Canada JV Becancour, QB Ammonia, Urea 2018 1,600 Ammonia

2,500 Urea Greenfield

Agrium TBD/Under Study Ammonia, Urea - 2.0 mil t various Greenfield

Agrium Redwater, AB Urea - 170 Urea Debottleneck

Southeast Idaho Energy American Falls, ID Ammonia, Urea, UAN - 800 Ammonia, 380

Urea, 240 UAN Greenfield

Source: Company announcements and industry publications

53%

32%

1%

2%

12%

Ammonia Urea AN Other UAN

38

38%

62%

Imports Domestic Production Offshore imports account for 38% of total

North American nitrogen demand, or 8.8

million of the 23.3 million nutrient tons

consumed

In recent years, offshore imports

accounted for 30% to 35% of North

American ammonia use

Offshore imports account for

approximately 60% of urea fertilizer use

For UAN, offshore imports comprise

approximately 25% of North American

consumption

North America Relies

on Nitrogen Imports

Source: FERTECON

Calendar Year

2012 Demand:

23.3 Million Nutrient Tons

Imports:

8.8 Million Nutrient Tons

39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Demand

For planning purposes, CF Industries

assumes North America will add around

6 million tons of new ammonia capacity

between 2013 and 2018

This growth, if realized, represents a

32% increase in capacity from 2013

levels, with the majority expected to

come onstream in 2016-2018

The additional nitrogen capacity is

expected to be used largely for

producing upgraded products

Nitrogen fertilizer imports are expected

to continue but the total should decline Source: IFA, FERTECON, CF

Calendar Year

North American Nitrogen

Capacity and Demand Outlook (Million Nutrient Tons)

Growth in North American

Nitrogen Capacity Expected

40

North American imports from offshore

sources are expected to decline

dramatically as new capacity comes

onstream

Imported ammonia would decline the

least, falling about 20%

The assumed volume of new urea

capacity would displace about 60% of

the current import volume

UAN imports would decline by

about 70% 0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Ammonia Urea UAN AN

North American Offshore Nitrogen Imports (Million Nutrient Tons)

North America Expected

to Remain a Net Importer

Source: USDOC, CF

Fertilizer Year

$3

$6

$9

$12

$15

$18

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Urea Ammonia UAN

41

Since January 2010, U.S. urea prices

have averaged just over $400 per ton

at the U.S. Gulf, while UAN prices have

averaged close to $290 per ton

Tampa ammonia prices have averaged

$490 per ton since January 2010, while

Midwest ammonia prices have averaged

$650 per ton

On a per unit nitrogen basis, UAN

typically trades at a premium to other

nitrogen sources

Ammonia is typically the best value for

farmers on a per unit nitrogen basis

Source: Green Markets

U.S. Gulf Prices, per Short Ton

U.S. Midwest Prices, per N Unit

UAN Priced at a Premium

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Urea UAN Ammonia (Tampa)

$350

$450

$550

$650

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

NOLA Tampa (Nola Equiv.)

0

4

8

12

16

20Exports Domestic

42

Domestic shipments are expected to

reach 7.4 million tons of DAP/MAP

product in 2013 as high corn acreage

continues to drive stable phosphate

demand

However, greater competition in

international market continues to weigh

on the export market

This is due to both higher supplies from

Morocco and Saudi Arabia and recently

lower demand in India due to decreasing

subsidies

U.S. exports have declined gradually

from 11 million tons in 2004 to an

estimated 5 million tons in 2013

U.S. Phosphate Situation

Source: Green Markets, TFI, USDOC, CF

Fertilizer Year

U.S. Phosphate Prices (U.S. Dollars per Short Ton)

U.S. DAP/MAP Shipments (Million Product Tons)

43

Agricultural and

Nitrogen Themes

A $5 per bushel corn price is a “sweet spot”:

− For the farmer

− For ethanol producers, feedlot operators and corn exporters

− For the fertilizer industry

World nitrogen demand is expected to continue at a consistent 2% growth

♦ The global 2013 urea cost curve suggests strong support at $320-$340/st

for US Gulf

♦ Nitrogen capacity additions are not expected to have a material impact on

the hypothetical margin available to North American producers


… well executed

Agenda

44




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Phil Koch

SVP, Supply Chain

45

Natural Gas and Logistics


… well executed

46

CF Industries Has Significant

Cost and Logistical Advantages

CF Industries has a significant and enduring cost advantage from North

American natural gas

− The company’s natural gas consumption to increase from 700 MCF / day to 1 BCF /

day with capacity expansion projects

− Exploration, development and production companies have realized greater

efficiencies, lowering the cost of gas

− Unique attributes of the North American natural gas environment help provide a

sustainable cost advantage

CF Industries’ production, storage and distribution assets are competitive

differentiators

− Manufacturing flexibility and locations throughout North America

− Supply chain from raw material and natural gas procurement to transportation to

distribution

Flexibility and nimbleness enable optimization of assets

Natural Gas Consumption

Profile

47

MEDICINE HAT, AB Consumption: 120,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: TransCanada/

Nova - AECO

Average Basis: ($0.35)

COURTRIGHT, ON Consumption: 40,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Union Gas Pipeline–

Dawn Pool

Average Basis: $0.35

PORT NEAL, IA

Consumption: 40,000 MMBtu/d

Expansion: 130,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Northern Natural

Gas- Ventura

Average Basis: $0.05

VERDIGRIS, OK Consumption: 120,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Oneok Gas

Transmission


WOODWARD, OK Consumption: 57,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Oneok Gas

Transmission


YAZOO CITY, MS Consumption: 40,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Henry Hub

DONALDSONVILLE, LA Consumption: 295,000 MMBtu/d

Expansion: 430,000 MMBtu/d

Pricing Index: Henry Hub

Natural gas represents

about 70% of cash cost

of nitrogen production

CF Industries’ proximity

to the largest producing

basins in the U.S. yields

attractive gas cost and

supply flexibility

Note: Average basis is a trailing twelve month average and is the differential to

Henry Hub excluding delivery cost.

Enduring Natural Gas

Price Advantage

48

Source: PIRA, EIA

World Natural Gas Cost Outlook (U.S. Dollars per MMBtu)

West Europe

Ukraine

U.S.

Russia

Middle East

Contributors to the decline in North

American natural gas prices:

− Increase in North American shale gas

reserves and production

− Greater drilling rig and well efficiencies

− Growing production of associated gas

from liquids development

Unique and sustainable advantages of

North American natural gas

− Abundant reserves

− Extensive geological data

− Land owner mineral rights

− Existing infrastructure for production

and distribution

− Hydraulic fracturing expertise/innovation

− Abundant water resources

− Robust domestic market

These advantages exist in few, if any,

other parts of the world Source: FERTECON, EIA, CME

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

$/MMBtu

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Conventional/Other Shale Henry Hub Price (right hand scale)

Bcf/day

U.S. Lower 48-States Dry Gas Production

Abundant Resources

with Attractive Economics

49

Source: BENTEK

Internal Rate of Return by Play

The Potential Gas Committee estimates future U.S.

supply of 2.7 quadrillion cubic feet (over 100 years),

up 486 TCF from last report

An immense amount of gas is economically

recoverable for less than $5/MMBtu with today’s

technology

Technology and efficiency continue to advance

rapidly in North America

− A culture and history of innovation

− Powerful competitive forces

− A supportive regulatory regime – so far

50

$3.00 $3.00

$1.25

$3.00 $0.60

$0.60

$-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

Western Europe Asia

Shipping

Gas Cost

Fuel/Basis

Liquefaction

Estimated Delivered Cost of LNG from U.S. Gulf (U.S. Dollars per MMBtu)

Source: Cheniere Energy, based on $4.50 Henry Hub natural

gas price and $100 Brent crude oil price.

Persistent

advantage

for North

American gas

consumer

Gas Cost Advantage Remains

Despite Likely LNG Exports

Significant rents need to be

paid on infrastructure

investments associated with

LNG

Long permitting and

infrastructure build-out period

Pricing of gas from competing

regions also impacts net-back

pricing for North American gas

producers

High cost of liquefaction,

shipping and regasification

ensure a persistent advantage

for North American gas users

$3.00 $3.00

$1.25

$3.00 $0.60

$0.60

Western Europe Asia

Shipping

Gas Cost

Fuel/Basis

Liquefaction

$9.35

$11.10

More Gas from Fewer Rigs

51

Gas-directed rig count has

tumbled, but production has

remained strong

− 5% increase in production despite

50% reduction in gas directed rig

count since September 2011

− Newer plays have high initial

production rates

Drilling has become much more

efficient

− Significant reduction in drill time

despite longer lateral distance

− Multiple holes per pad, often

accessing multiple reservoirs

Southwestern Energy Fayetteville

Shale Drilling Performance

Source: Southwestern Energy

Source: EIA, Baker Hughes

54

58

62

66

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

Gas Directed Rig Count

Total Land Rigs (Gas+Oil)

Production (r axis)

Production vs. Rig Count

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012

Drill Time (Days) Lateral Length (000 feet, r axis)

Bcf/day Rig Count

Days Thousand

Feet

Market Forces Drive North American

Natural Gas Toward Range Trading

52

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Market forces tend to drive gas

prices toward range-bound

trading

When prices fall, electricity

producers substitute natural gas

for coal generation, reducing

gas stockpiles

When prices rise above

marginal cost of new production

basin by basin, supply is

expected to increase

Many gas producers have

chosen to hedge in the $4.50

to $5.00 range

CF Industries expects natural

gas to trade between $3 - $5 /

MMBtu over the next several

years

Upward demand pressure from coal-to-

gas switching for electricity generation

Downward price pressure from supply

response as prices remain above

marginal cost of new production

Henry Hub Cash Price (U.S. Dollars per MMBtu)

Source: Bloomberg

Unique Asset Base Creates

Competitive Advantage

53

CF Industries’ extensive asset

base creates distinct business

advantage

Nitrogen production in the heart

of the Corn Belt

Flexible product configuration to

take advantage of evolving product

prices and profit opportunities

Extensive ammonia terminal

network near customers facilitates

quick delivery during short

application windows

Multiple transportation modes for

flexible methods of getting products

to customers

Seven

Nitrogen

Complexes

Broad

Terminal

System

Multiple

Transportation

Modes

Flexible

Product

Configuration

Maximize

Margin

Unparalleled breadth

of plant locations and

production flexibility

Immediate proximity

to high-demand

regions

Production flexibility

to address changing

market conditions

− Optimize mix of

UAN and urea

− Increase net

ammonia when/if

conditions

appropriate

Source: AAPFCO, CF

54

Production Flexibility

Nitrogen Demand and Production Capacity*

*Thousand Product Tons

Legend

(Thousand Nutrient Tons)

0 1,100

MEDICINE HAT, AB Net Ammonia: 790

Urea: 810

COURTRIGHT, ON Net Ammonia: 265

UAN: 345

Urea: 160

PORT NEAL, IA Net Ammonia: 30

UAN: 800

Urea: 50

WOODWARD, OK Net Ammonia: 140

UAN: 820

Urea: 25

VERDIGRIS, OK Net Ammonia: 30

UAN: 1,965 YAZOO CITY, MS UAN: 160

Urea: 20

AN: 1,075

DONALDSONVILLE, LA Net Ammonia: 1,010

UAN: 2,415

Urea: 1,680

PLANT CITY, FL DAP/MAP: 2,165

Significant inventory

holding capacity − 29 ammonia

facilities– 1.2 million

ton capacity

− 57 UAN facilities –

1.2 million ton

capacity

Critical to providing in-

market and in-season

product availability

− Product distribution in

close proximity to

customers

− Inventory availability

during peak seasonal

demand

− Investments to

increase loading

capabilities = more

inventory turns

Broad Network of Terminal

Facilities

55

0 1,100 Source: AAPFCO, CF

Nitrogen Demand and Terminal Facilities

Production

Distribution

Legend


Value of Access to

Ammonia Pipelines

Lowest cost method

of ammonia

distribution

− NuStar and

Magellan

− Connected to 10

distribution facilities

Provide ability to

move product around

“choke points” and

optimize distribution

methods − Moving ammonia

from plant locations

to river-terminals

− Cross-loading to

river barges for

northern destinations

56


Nitrogen Demand and Ammonia Pipelines

Production

Distribution

Pipeline Legend


Significant Product Volumes

Moved via River System

Utilization of multiple

inland waterways to

reach end-markets − Mississippi, Ohio,

Illinois, Arkansas,

Yazoo Rivers

Product transportation

and inventory holding

capacity − Ammonia – 12 barges

with 31,000 ton total

capacity

− UAN – 20 barges with

60,000 ton total

capacity

− 1 chartered ocean

UAN vessel

− 1 contracted ocean

vessel for dry product

57


Nitrogen Demand and River System

Production

Distribution

Rivers Legend


Range of Options Provided

By Rail Access and Assets

Fleet of over 5,000 cars

Established relationships with all

Class 1 railroads − Donaldsonville – Union Pacific

− Yazoo City – Canadian National

− Verdigris – BNSF

− Woodward – BNSF

− Port Neal – Union Pacific

− Courtright – CN & CSX

− Medicine Hat – CP

− Plant City – CSX

♦ Provides options to move any

product to any domestic location

58

Ammonia 26%

UAN 46%

Hopper 17%

Other 11%

Rail Fleet by Car Type

909 1,361

2,432

553

59

Natural Gas and Logistics

Unique attributes of the North American natural gas environment provide

a sustainable natural gas price range of $3 - $5 / MMBtu

CF Industries’ plant and distribution facilities are located in the heart

of the Corn Belt, providing exceptional access to customers

CF Industries’ asset base and management approach provide

a high degree of flexibility which helps maximize earnings opportunities


… well executed

Agenda

60




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Bert Frost

SVP, Sales and

Market Development

61

Sales and Market Development


… well executed


2012 World Nitrogen Net Trade (Million Nutrient Tonnes)

-5.1

8.5

12.4

-3.7 -7.6

0.5

-7.0

-1.5

4.4

-0.9

Net Importer

Net Exporter

Decision Making

with a World View

62

Factors include major agricultural growing regions, fertilizer supply

and demand, logistics, currencies, geopolitical issues

Revenue Available in Value Chain* (U.S. Dollars per Ton)

* Estimated three year average weighted for seasonal patterns

Source: CF, Green Markets, USDA

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Ammonia Urea UAN

to Retailer

to Wholesaler

to Manufacturer

Conversion of natural gas feedstock

into plant nutrients creates value for

nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers

Manufacturers (who have the

biggest investment) have captured

the largest share of available

revenue in the fertilizer value chain

during recent years

Margins for nitrogen manufacturers

have benefitted from historically

high nitrogen prices and low natural

gas costs

Fertilizer Value Chain

63

Optimization through Flexibility

Market based approach through

response to global agricultural

and fertilizer developments

Maximizing profitability through

flexibility

− Production mix: urea vs. UAN,

DAP vs. MAP, urea liquor vs. DEF

− Markets: domestic vs. export,

agricultural vs. industrial

− Logistics and transportation: numerous

production and distribution sources and

modes of delivery

− Pricing: various options with forward,

index, block and cash prices

− Order book: management of product

volumes offered during specific

timeframes

Maximizing Profitability

Production Mix

Markets

Logistics & Transportation

Pricing Options

Order Book Management

64

Maximize Margin

Sales Overview

65

2012 Sales Volume by Product (Thousand Product Tons)

Market Segmentation (Thousand Product Tons)

Diverse sales mix

− 15 million product tons

− UAN is highest volume product

− Seasonal mix changes based on market

balance and pricing

Nitrogen represents more than

85% percent of total sales

− North American-centric nitrogen sales

− Phosphate export opportunities to

maximize net-backs

Primary focus on agricultural sales

− Highest margin sales opportunities

− Improved profitability of industrial sales

since Terra acquisition

Balance with industrial sales

− Ratable business

− Sizable volumes help base load production

Ammonia

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Agriculture Industrial Export

Source: DOC, TFI, CF

Ammonia Application Period

is Compressing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Days

Trend

Index

Trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Fall: October – November at Central Illinois Ammonia Terminals

Index: Fall 2000 = 100

Source: CF

Highest Single Day Shipments

Days to Ship 66% of Total Fall Shipments

With technological advances and

larger, faster equipment, peak day

ammonia volume is increasing and

peak shipping period is trending down

24 hour operation in-season is more

important than ever

Improvements in ammonia terminal

loading capacity have been made and

more are planned

66

67

$0

$50

$100

$150

2009 2010 2011 2012

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2009* 2010* 2011 2012

Terminals Other

% of Total

Ammonia Volume

U.S. Dollars per

Ton Ammonia

* Pro forma: CF plus Terra Legacy sales

Average

* Pro forma margin based on average Green Market prices

Value of Ammonia

Distribution System

Ammonia terminals create significant

value with close proximity to

agricultural markets

− 21 in-market ammonia terminals with

790,000 tons of storage to supply peak

demand in both fall and spring

Terminal sales yield a price premium

relative to the U.S. Gulf due to

in-market storage and logistics

advantage which ensures just-in-time

delivery to the customer

− The additional margin for an ammonia sale

at a Midwest terminal vs. a Gulf sale has

averaged an estimated $81 per ton

Source: CF

Source: Green Markets, CF

Increasing Terminal Sales

Valuable Additional Margin at Midwest

Terminals vs. Gulf

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Phosphate Nitrogen

Export Sales

CF Industries Exports (Thousand Tons)

Source: CF

Unique ability via Donaldsonville

and Tampa to arbitrage the best

geographic sales opportunities

− Vessel logistics favorable to growing

markets in Central and South America

Exports provide flexibility and

diversify customer base

Nitrogen (mainly UAN) and

phosphate are exported

KEYTRADE partnership provides

access to global markets for exports

68

KEYTRADE partnership provides access and visibility to global markets

Global Reach

69

Exports through

KEYTRADE in 2012

Asia

South

America

North

America

Africa

Asia

Europe

2009 - 2012 export locations shown

China

Vietnam Bangladesh

India

Pakistan Ivory Coast

Senegal

Kenya

South Africa

Tanzania

Turkey

France Canada

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Peru

Uruguay

Venezuela

Mexico

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Panama

North American Manufacturing

50%-Owned Offshore Operations

Global Distribution

Ammonia 38%

Urea 7%

AN 23%

Other Nitrogen 32%

Industrial Sales Volume

by Product

Industrial Business

70

Industrial chemicals

− Chemical intermediates

− Ethanol producers

− Explosives producers

− Cattle feed

Environmental

− Reduction in NOx emissions

at stationary power plants

Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF)

− Growing market for liquid urea used

to reduce NOx emissions from diesel

engines

1.8 million tons in 2012

Evolution of DEF Market in North America

71

Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF)

currently represents ~ 2%

of the North American urea

market

Expected to reach ~1.5 million

tons of urea equivalent, or 8%

of the North American urea

market, by 2020

EPA-mandated NOx reduction − Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)

technology has been adopted by all

U.S. heavy duty truck manufacturers

CF Industries positioned to lead − Largest U.S. based provider

− Domestic production preferred due to

quality requirements and shipping costs

Source: Integer

DEF Use for Buses, Class 4 through 8 Trucks

& Off-Road Vehicles (Equivalent Tons of Urea in Millions)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Product Pricing Process

In-depth agribusiness analysis of agricultural and fertilizer-specific market

trends

− Crop market factors

− Global fertilizer supply/demand

Frequent management discussion and evaluation of near-term industry

developments and market/pricing trends

− International/national/regional

− Agricultural/industrial

− Weekly/monthly/quarterly meetings

Continuous assessment of spot market price versus future expectations

Array of price offerings to enable customers to manage price risks:

− Forward

− Index

− Block

− Cash

72

45%

Sales and Support

One stop source for nitrogen

and phosphate products

Flexibility and scale

– In-market production

and supply

– Ability to adjust production

to match changing market conditions

Market insight through team

dedicated to agri-business analysis

State-of-the-art customer service

through e-business process

and performance management

Innovative pricing options help customers

manage future price risk when buying

fertilizer

73

45%

Product and Process Innovation

45%

74

New sulfur enhanced phosphate

(MAPpluSTM)

– Supplies crops with sulfate for immediate

plant use and elemental sulfur

for season-long fertilization

– Among easiest-to-handle enhanced

fertilizers available on the market

– Export opportunities in Latin America

Expanded features through new PROMISESM

e-business portal

– Increased automation

– Enhanced communication

– Ease of use

Implemented new ERP system in early 2013

– Streamlines business processes and provides

infrastructure to support future growth

North America and Europe –

largest UAN markets with 90%

of global demand

Sizable exports of UAN

to mature markets like France

and Belgium

Actively developing new markets –

Latin America, Australia and China

Deep water dock at Donaldsonville

positioned to load large vessels of UAN

to supply markets worldwide

UAN Markets

75


UAN Market Development

United

States

Mexico

Argentina

Peru

Colombia

UK

France

Belgium China

Australia

0

200

400

600

800

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Production Imports Consumption

0

50

100

150

200

Maize Wheat Cotton Sugar Soy

Brazil U.S.

* Most recent data: 2008

Latin America is a key market -

logistically advantaged to the U.S.

− Growing demand for nutrients in

Argentina and an expanding

agricultural sector led to adoption of

UAN in the late 1990s

− There is excellent growth potential in

Brazil as the crop mix of maize and

sugar cane is ideal for UAN application

CF Industries is exploring ways to build

UAN demand in Latin America and

other developing markets

Argentina UAN Market (Thousand Tonnes)

Source: FERTECON

Nitrogen Application Rates* (Pounds per Acre)

Source: IFA, CF

UAN Market Development

76

Strong agricultural and fertilizer fundamentals continue to create value

for nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers

CF Industries is well positioned in the plant nutrient market with a diverse

sales mix and significant North American and international sales opportunities

CF Industries manages its business, sales and market development

decisions from a global perspective with a relentless focus on maximizing

margins

CF Industries is developing product markets in new regions that the company

can serve as its additional capacity comes on-line

Sales and Market Development

77


… well executed

Agenda

78




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Tony Will

SVP, Manufacturing

and Distribution

79

Operations and Capacity

Expansion


… well executed

Operating Philosophy

80

Core focus on safety and environmental

stewardship

− OSHA recordable incident rate better than

industry average

− Operate a diverse set of assets with a strict

regulatory and environmental permit compliance

program

High on-stream factor enabled by a robust

maintenance program

Investments in existing plants to increase

production capacity and energy efficiency

Annual Recordable Incidence Rates Incident Rate

(Recordable incidents/

200,000 hours)

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Industry Average D.A.R.T. Rate (1) CF D.A.R.T. Rate

D.A.R.T. Rate*

Days Away, Restricted, or Transferred (D.A.R.T.) Rate per 200,00 hours: Includes

cases involving days away from work, restricted work activity, or transfers to another

job. (1) Average for Phosphate Rock Mining (NAICS 212392), Nitrogen Plants (NAICS

325311), Phosphoric Plants (NAICS 325312) and Farm Supply Merchant Wholesalers

(NAICS 424910). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CF

2.47 2.35

1.53

1.10

1.80 1.70 1.80 1.80

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD

CF RIR TFI RIR

Source: TFI, CF Industries

High capacity utilization enabled

by robust maintenance program

and operating philosophy

Regularly scheduled turnaround

projects maintain safe operating

condition and increase plant

efficiency

Increased production capacity

through efficiency and

debottleneck projects

− 300,000 tons ammonia from 2010

through 2013 (1)

− 20,000 tons UAN since 2010

81

Operating Efficiency

Donaldsonville Ammonia Annual Capacity

and Gas Usage for Complex II

Source: CF Note: Complex II includes ammonia units #3 and #4 at Donaldsonville

Ammonia Operating Rates (% of Capacity Utilization)

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

(1) Includes approximately 150,000 tons from debottleneck projects in 2013.

32.0

32.3

32.7

33.0

33.3

33.7

34.0

34.3

34.7

35.0

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

940

1,100

1,040 1,010

1,236

Thousand

Tons per Year MMBtu

per Ton Capacity Gas Usage

82

Nitrogen Production System

(Thousand Short Tons)

Current Annual Capacity (1)

Location

Gross

Ammonia

Net

Ammonia UAN (32%) Net Urea(2)

Ammonium

Nitrate

Fertilizer

Compounds

Total

Products

Donaldsonville, Louisiana 2,950 1,010 2,415 1,680 0 0 5,105

Medicine Hat, Alberta 1,250 790 0 810 0 0 1,600

Verdigris, Oklahoma 1,130 345 1,965 0 0 0 2,310

Yazoo City, Mississippi 560 0 160 20 1,075 0 1,255

Courtright, Ontario 500 265 345 160 0 0 770

Woodward, Oklahoma 480 140 820 25 0 0 985

Port Neal, Iowa 380 30 800 50 0 0 880

7,250 2,580 6,505 2,745 1,075 0 12,905

Unconsolidated Affiliates (3)

Point Lisas, Trinidad 360 360 0 0 0 0 360

Billingham, U.K. - GrowHow 275 135 0 0 310 0 445

Ince, U.K. - GrowHow 190 0 0 0 330 165 495

Total 8,075 3,075 6,505 2,745 1,715 165 14,205

Notes(1)

(2)

(3) Represents CF's 50% interest in the capacity of each of these facilities.

Includes granular urea, urea liquor (UL), and Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF).

2012 Form 10-K, average annual capacity includes allowance for normal outages and planned maintenance shutdowns.

World Scale Phosphate

Operations

83

Fully integrated system

1 million tons of P2O5 production

annually

− 2 million tons DAP / MAP

Well-balanced operations

(rock / beneficiation / chemical

plant capacity)

12 years of fully permitted rock

reserves

− In process to increase rock reserves

by 10 years

Excellent location to serve domestic

and export markets

CF Industries advantaged vs. non-

integrated producers

One of three draglines at the Hardee Phosphate Complex

Reclamation area post mining activities

Critical Factors Supporting

Decision to Invest in New Nitrogen Capacity

Strong and growing nitrogen market

− Fundamentals expected to sustain 2% average growth rate requiring about 5 new urea

plants per year

− Global market with pricing determined by production from much higher cost regions

− North America large net importer of nitrogen

Reliable source of low cost natural gas feedstock

− 2.7 quadrillion cubic feet of expected future U.S. supply

− North America has world’s most developed natural gas production and distribution

infrastructure

− Structural elements support long-term natural gas cost advantage versus many other regions

Lowest delivered cost, broadest reach

− Largest nitrogen manufacturer in North America

− Largest manufacturing and distribution footprint

− Best logistics infrastructure

− Number of “ship-from” points minimizes transportation cost

− Multiple deep-draft docks at Donaldsonville allow for export of nitrogen products if desired

84

Critical Factors Supporting

Decision to Invest in New Nitrogen Capacity, cont’d

Best capabilities

− Outstanding sales and marketing team - well positioned to sell additional tons

− Sharing of best practices and cross training among 2,200 operating employees

in multiple locations

− Able to pool/share spare parts

CF Industries’ expansion projects will be among the first new capacity

in North America to come online

− Spent or committed $500 million as of March 31, 2013

− Air permits in public comment phase at both locations

− Long-lead-time equipment (rotating and high-pressure equipment) for both ammonia plants,

both urea plants and the nitric acid plant have been ordered

− Expect to begin moving earth/constructing later this summer

− Projects expected to come online in 2015-2016

85

Attractive economics with expected returns

significantly above the company’s cost of capital

Capacity Expansion Projects

♦ Authorized expenditure of

$3.8 billion

− $2.1 billion at Donaldsonville

− $1.7 billion at Port Neal

♦ Combined annual production:

− 2.1 million tons of gross ammonia

− 2.0 – 2.7 million tons of urea

− Up to 1.8 million(1) tons of UAN

♦ Contracted ThyssenKrupp Uhde

for procurement and engineering

services

♦ Draft air permits out for public

comment in Louisiana and Iowa

Tons per

Day

Annual

Capacity (thousand tons)

Typical

Product

Mix (thousand tons)

Donaldsonville, LA

- Ammonia 3,640 1,274 184

- Urea 3,850 1,348 686

- Nitric Acid 1,675 586 --

- UAN 5,050 1,768 1,768(1)

Port Neal, IA

- Ammonia 2,425 849 81

- Urea 3,850 1,348 1,348

86

Notes: All production volume shown as short tons.

Production volume based on 350 operating days a year

Expansion Projects Capacities

and Typical Product Mix

(1) At 1.8M tons of UAN, 2.0M tons of granular urea can be

produced. Granular urea production could be increased by

decreasing UAN production.

Donaldsonville 2016 – World’s

Largest Nitrogen Complex

87

Donaldsonville project will increase UAN and urea product mix flexibility

in a cost-advantaged location to serve domestic and international markets

Six ammonia plants

Five urea plants

Three UAN plants

Five docks

– Two deep water docks for ocean

vessel loading

– Three floating docks for loading

river barges

Unit train capability

NuStar ammonia pipeline

Five natural gas pipelines

Donaldsonville Ammonia, Urea and UAN for Sale

(Thousands of Product Tons per Year)

Donaldsonville will have unmatched product upgrade flexibility

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gran Urea 2,248 2,336 2,378 2,540 2,698 2,812 3,039

UAN 4,349 4,228 4,168 3,900 3,430 3,095 2,413

Net Ammonia 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,416 1,484 1,641

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Net Ammonia UAN Gran Urea

Max UAN Max Urea

88

Additional urea capacity in a region with significant demand

Two ammonia plants

Three urea plants

Two nitric acid plants

One UAN plant

Unit train capability

Port Neal 2016 – Expanded

Capacity in Heart of the Corn Belt

2012 2016 Increase

Gross Ammonia 380 1,229 849

UAN 800 800 -

Urea 50 1,398 1,348

Average Annual Capacity (Thousand Tons)


… well executed

89

Operations and Capacity

Expansion

CF Industries is a world-class fertilizer producer with a core focus on safe

and environmentally responsible operations

CF Industries maintains high capacity utilization through robust

maintenance program and capital projects to increase production volumes

and improve energy efficiency

♦ CF Industries is expanding nitrogen capacity with an attractive return profile

based on strong market fundamentals and best existing set of assets and

capabilities

♦ New production at Donaldsonville will increase product mix flexibility in a

cost-advantaged location to serve domestic and international markets, and

at Port Neal will add urea capacity in a region with significant demand


… well executed

Agenda

90




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Dennis Kelleher

Chief Financial Officer

91

Financial Management


… well executed

CF Industries’ Effective


Delivered first quarter record net earnings and EPS − Earnings of $407 million

− Earnings per diluted share of $6.47

Solid fundamentals and operational excellence − Strong planting despite challenging weather

− Favorable ammonia and UAN price realizations

− First quarter record UAN shipments

Strong credit profile and flexible balance sheet − Investment grade credit ratings from each agency

− Utilization of balance sheet through $1.5 billion of new bonds

Execution of capital allocation plans − Returned $2.25 billion of cash to shareholders through repurchases since 2011

− Closed acquisition of CFL interests

− Continued investments in capacity expansion projects ($500 million as of March 31, 2013)

Key value drivers support earnings profile − Feedstock, ammonia storage, transportation and production efficiency advantages

− Business model supports higher highs and higher lows

Significantly outperforming peers, yet trading at a discount

92

Strong Balance Sheet to Fund

Strategic Priorities

93

CF Industries has a solid investment

grade credit profile

− Modest leverage ratios

− Strong fixed charge coverage ratios

Commitment to maintain investment

grade metrics

Recent issuance of $1.5 billion of

long-term bonds

− $750 million of 3.45% notes due 2023

− $750 million of 4.95% notes due 2043

1.7x

0.5x 0.5x

0.9x

0.0x

0.4x

0.8x

1.2x

1.6x

2.0x

2010 2011 2012 LTM

Total Debt / EBITDA(2)(3)

Free Cash Flow / Total Debt (1)(3)

(1) See slide 111 for definition of free cash flow.

(2) LTM includes CF Industries $1.5B debt from May 20, 2013.

(3) See slides 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures

(2)

(2)

0.4x

1.0x 0.9x

0.5x

0.0x

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

2010 2011 2012 LTM

History of Share Repurchases

94

$2.75 billion of cash returned

to shareholders through repurchase

of 21.9 million shares at an average

price of $126/share

− Significant value accretion to

remaining shareholders

− Programs completed well ahead

of schedule

Complete existing $3 billion program

− $2.25 billion remaining authorization


− Significant cash flow and available

liquidity to fund repurchases

Executed share repurchases while

investing in growth projects

− Closed C$910 million acquisition

of CFL interests on April 30, 2013

− $500 million spent or committed to

capacity expansion projects as of

March 31, 2013

~$164

Average

Price

~$197

Average

Price

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

1/2/2008 1/2/2009 1/2/2010 1/2/2011 1/2/2012 1/2/2013

$5

00

M

$750M

$1.0

B

$5

00

M

~$153

Average

Price

~$59

Average

Price

95

(1) Excludes 34% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that was owned by Viterra. CFL operations were treated as a consolidated variable interest entity in CF

Industries Holdings, Inc. financial statements.

(2) Acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL closed April 30, 2013.

(3) Approved ammonia debottleneck projects that are in process.

(4) New plant construction projects.

CF Industries Nitrogen Volumes and Shares Outstanding

2.6

3.6 0.1 0.3 6.6 0.1

1.7 8.5

46.0

52.5

59.0

65.5

72.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 Pre-Terra

Acquisition (1)

TerraAcquisition

PreviouslyExecuted

Debottlenecks

34% CFL (2) Current PlannedDebottlenecks

(3)

New Plants(4)

Total 2016

Jan. 29,

2010

Million

Nutrient Tons

Million Shares

Outstanding

Share Count

Capital Allocation Impact

April 30, 2013

April 30, 2010

Jan. 31,

2013

Increased nitrogen volume

over 150% since 2010

Projects approved in 2012

and underway will lead to

total nitrogen volume

increase of 225% since 2010

Share repurchase activity

has reduced share count

17% since Terra acquisition

Remaining share repurchase

authorization of $2.25 billion


Key Value Drivers

96

Enduring feedstock cost advantage

− Lower, less volatile natural gas prices

− Significant cost advantage to Chinese coal-based nitrogen production, Eastern European

gas-based nitrogen production

− U.S. shale gas evolution difficult to replicate at scale elsewhere

Ammonia storage advantage

− Storage terminals provide opportunity to realize both seasonal and regional price differences

− Allows CF Industries to maximize higher-margin agricultural sales and provides flexibility to

negotiate better industrial sales

Transportation cost advantage

− Facilities located near or in world’s most productive corn growing region

− Significant landed-cost differential versus imports and low-cost inland transportation options

− Transportation advantage exists for potential exports from Donaldsonville to Central and

South American locations

Production efficiency advantage

− High capacity utilization rates

− Attractive investments in debottlenecking

Integrated phosphate advantage versus non-integrated producers

97

Robust Business Profile

Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu)

Ure

a P

rice

($

/to

n)

Sensitivity of 2012 Nitrogen Segment Cash

Operating Earnings to Gas and Urea Prices (Billions of U.S. Dollars)

$3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00

$300 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 $1.0

$325 $1.9 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.4

$350 $2.2 $2.1 $1.9 $1.8 $1.7

$375 $2.5 $2.4 $2.3 $2.1 $2.0

$400 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.4 $2.3

$425 $3.1 $3.0 $2.9 $2.8 $2.6

$450 $3.5 $3.3 $3.2 $3.1 $3.0

$475 $3.8 $3.7 $3.5 $3.4 $3.3

$500 $4.1 $4.0 $3.8 $3.7 $3.6

Source: CF

Note: Based on 2012 actual nitrogen segment gross margins plus DD&A.

Assumes that a $25 per ton change in urea price is equivalent to a $17.39 per

ton change in UAN price and a $44.57 per ton change in ammonia price.

The fundamentals of global nitrogen

product pricing and North American

natural gas costs give CF Industries

an attractive earnings profile

The company’s existing nitrogen

business profile can be highly

profitable across a broad range of

industry conditions

This analysis provides confidence for

the new investments in nitrogen

capacity

Higher Highs, Higher Lows

Excellent Execution

98

Gross Margin as % of Sales EBITDA as % of Sales (1)

Return on Equity (2) Return on Invested Capital (2)


(2) See slide 111 for a definition of invested capital, Return on Invested Capital and Return on Equity.

(3) See slides 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

(3)

(3) (3)

49

54 55

17 16 16

32

27 28

55

45 45

23 20 20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


34 34 34

19

14 14

22

14 13

23

15 15 17

14 14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


34

31

33

21 22 21 21

14 15

39

21 21

27

22 19

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


47 51 52

28 27 27 32

28 28

49

43 43

22 25

21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


Accessing Low-Cost Debt

99

Increased utilization of CF

Industries’ borrowing capacity

through $1.5 billion bond issuance

Balance sheet efficiency and

leverage consistent with peers

Movement toward more leverage

demonstrates belief in sustainable

nature of fertilizer industry

economics

0.5 0.5

0.9 0.9

1.5

1.8

0.4 0.4 0.4

0.9

1.1 1.1

0.6 0.6 0.6

0.0x

0.4x

0.8x

1.2x

1.6x

2.0x

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


Total Debt to EBITDA(1)(2)

17

13

27

22

27

34

7 4 4

13 12 12

18

13 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M

2011

2012

LT

M


Total Debt to Equity Market Value(2)


(2) See slides 110-111 for definition of total debt to EBITDA and total debt to equity market value.

(3) LTM includes CF ($1.5B) and AGU ($1B) debt from May 20, 2013 and May 28, 2013, respectively.

Note: See slides 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

(3) (3)

(3) (3)

Cash Returned to Shareholders

100

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of EBITDA (2)

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of Equity Market Value (1)

(1) See slide 110 for a definition of Equity Market Value.


(3) See slides 110-111 for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

(3)

(3)

♦ $218 million of dividends since

2010

♦ $2.25 billion of share repurchases

since 2011

♦ $2.25 billion remaining on 2012

($3.0 billion) authorization as of

April 30, 2013

♦ Recognized for effectiveness of

share repurchase program 23

34

16

40

24

13

24

16 14

19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M


6

9

3

7

3 2

2 2

3

4

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M

3 Y

r A

vrg

.

LT

M



… well executed

Outperforming Peers

Yet Trading at a Discount

101

Share Price Performance (1/1/2009 – 3/31/2013)

Enterprise Value /

EBITDA(1)

CF Industries 3.3x

Agrium 6.7x

Mosaic 7.9x

Potash Corp. 10.0x

Yara 4.3x

(1) EV/ LTM EBITDA as of 3/31/2013. See slide 110 for calculation. See footnote 1 on slide 110 regarding EBITDA.

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

1/2/2009 1/2/2010 1/2/2011 1/2/2012 1/2/2013

CF +255% AGU +168% MOS +62% POT +52% YAR +64%

102


Solid fundamentals, effective management and operational excellence as

demonstrated through record earnings

Strong cash flow supports an investment grade credit profile and flexible

balance sheet, and enables execution of capital allocation plans

Key value drivers support an attractive earnings profile that demonstrates

higher highs and higher lows

Industry-leading execution, balance sheet utilization and cash returns to

shareholders have provided exceptional stock price appreciation


… well executed

Agenda

103




9:20am Break



10:30am Break



11:20am Q&A


… well executed

Steve Wilson

Chairman and

Chief Executive Officer

104

Summary


… well executed

Investment Thesis

Demand growth underpinned by population growth, higher protein diets

Search for higher yields leads to consistent consumption

105

Strategy Tightly Focused On Core Strength As a Nitrogen and Phosphate Producer

North America (Canada and the U.S.) imports almost 40% of its nitrogen needs

Long-term North American natural gas costs estimated to be $3-$5/MMBtu

Significant offshore capacity operates at the high end of the cost curve

Positioned to serve the world’s largest and most productive corn growing area

Extensive North American production and distribution footprint

Transportation assets provide logistical flexibility

Peer-leading financial performance

Disciplined capital allocation decisions

Experienced talented management team

Long-Term

Industry Growth

Favorable

Industry

Environment

Operational

Advantages

Excellent

Execution

History of Value Creation

Management track record of bold and disciplined actions

– 2005: Initial Public Offering at $16/Share

– 2008: Announced and completed $500M share repurchase program

– 2009: Bid for Terra Industries

– 2010: Closed Terra Industries acquisition

– 2011: Expenditure of $1B for share repurchase program

– 2012: Expenditure of $500M to complete $1.5B share repurchase program;

Announced C$0.9B agreement to purchase outstanding interests in CFL;

Authorized new $3B share repurchase program;

Announced $3.8B capacity expansion project

– 2013: Expenditure of $750M for share repurchases under the $3B authorization (as of April 30);

Completed acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL

Tightly focused strategy based on thorough study and analysis

Disciplined decisions based on rigorous DCF analysis and stress testing

Effective execution demonstrated by financial results and share price performance

106

CF Industries’ shareholders have been rewarded by

management’s disciplined strategic decisions

107

♦ We have done what we said we were going to do and

we have done those things effectively

♦ We are committed to executing flawlessly and

continuing to build value for shareholders

Summary

CF Industries has posted record earnings per share for 10

consecutive quarters. How?


… well executed

108

Thank You!


… well executed

For more information, please visit www.cfindustries.com

Reconciliation of non-GAAP

Measures – CF Industries

110

We have presented EBITDA, EBITDA as a % of sales,

Enterprise Value to EBITDA, total debt to EBITDA, Dividends

& Share Repurchases as a % of EBITDA and Dividends &

Share Repurchases as a % of Equity Market Value because

management uses these measures to track the company’s

performance in comparison to its peers and believes that

these are frequently used by securities analysts, investors

and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies in

our industry.

Notes:

(1) EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to

common stockholders plus interest expense

(income)-net, income taxes, and depreciation,

depletion and amortization. Other adjustments

include the elimination of loan fee amortization that is

included in both interest and amortization, and the

portion of depreciation that is included in non-

controlling interest.

(2) Share price as of the end of the applicable period.

(3) Enterprise value to EBITDA is defined as enterprise

value divided by EBITDA. Enterprise value is defined

as equity market value as of the period ending date

plus debt minus cash. Equity market value is defined

as shares outstanding multiplied by share price.

(4) Adjusted Debt includes the $1.5 billion of senior notes

issued May 20, 2013.

(5) Dividends & Share Repurchases as a percent of

EBITDA is defined as average dividends paid and

share repurchases for the specified time period

divided by average EBITDA for the specified period.

(6) Dividends & Share Repurchases as a percent of

Equity Market Value defined as average dividends

paid plus share repurchases for the specified time

period divided by the daily average equity market

value for the specified time period.

12 Mnths 12 Mnths 12 Mnths 3 Year 3 Mnths 3 Mnths LTM

Ending Ending Ending Avg as of Ending Ending Ending

In millions, except percentages and share price 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/31/12 12/31/12 3/31/12 3/31/13 3/31/13

EBITDA Calculation

Net Earnings Attributable to Common Stockholders 349 1,539 1,849 368 407 1,887

Interest Expense (net) 220 146 131 31 37 137

Income Taxes 277 932 963 207 107 863

Depreciation, depletion and amortization 395 416 420 103 107 424

Less: other adjustments (114) (47) (43) (7) (7) (43)

EBITDA (1) 1,127 2,986 3,320 2,478 702 651 3,268

Sales 6,098 6,104 1,528 1,337 5,913

EBITDA as a % of Sales 49% 54% 55%

Enterprise Value Calculation

Shares Outstanding 65.4 63.0 60.6

Share Price (2) 144.98 203.16 190.37

Equity Market Value 9,482 12,799 11,536

Debt 1,618 1,605 1,605

Cash (1,207) (2,275) (2,210)

Enterprise Value 9,893 12,129 10,931

Enterprise Value / EBITDA (3) 3.3x 3.7x 3.3x

Total Debt / EBITDA

Debt 1,959 1,618 1,605 1,605

Senior Unsecured Notes Issued May 23, 2013 1,498

Adjusted Debt (4) 3,103

Total Debt / EBITDA 1.7x 0.5x 0.5x 0.9x

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of EBITDA

Dividends 26 69 103 66 26 25 102

Share Repurchases - 1,000 500 500 - 500 1,000

Dividends & Share Repurchases as % of EBITDA (5) 23% 34%

Dividends + Share Repurchases of % of Equity Market Value

Daily Average Equity Market Value 9,636 12,796

Dividends + Share Repurchases of % of Equity Market Value (6) 6% 9%

CF Industries (in USD)

Reconciliation of non-GAAP

Measures – CF Industries

111

We have presented Total Debt to Equity Market Value, Free

Cash Flow to Total Debt, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

and Return on Equity (ROE) because management uses

these measures to track the company’s performance in

comparison to its peers and believes that these are frequently

used by securities analysts, investors and other interested

parties in the evaluation of companies in our industry.

Invested capital, stockholders equity and each of their

components are period-end amounts and not average

amounts.

Notes:

(1) Adjusted Debt includes the $1.5 billion of senior notes

issued May 20, 2013.

(2) Total Debt to Equity Market Value is defined as total

debt divided by Equity Market Value. Total debt is

defined as all debt for the specified time period.

Equity Market Value is defined as shares outstanding

multiplied by the share price.

(3) Free Cash Flow to Total Debt is defined as operating

cash flow minus capital expenditures, dividends paid

and minority interest divided by all debt.

(4) ROIC is defined as after tax operating income divided

by invested capital. After tax operating income is

defined as operating income times the net of 1 minus

a standard tax rate of 35% (operating income x (1- tax

rate of 35%)). Invested capital is defined as net debt

plus stockholders equity. Net debt is defined as all

debt plus minority interests (Non-controlling Interest)

minus cash.

(5) ROE is defined as net earnings divided by

stockholders equity.

(6) Share price as of the end of the applicable period.

(7) Enterprise value to EBITDA is defined as enterprise

value divided by EBITDA. Enterprise value is defined

as equity value plus debt minus cash. Equity value is

defined as shares outstanding multiplied by share

price.

12 Mnths 12 Mnths 12 Mnths 3 Mnths 3 Mnths LTM

Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending

In millions, except percentages 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/31/12 3/31/12 3/31/13 3/31/13

Total Debt / Equity Market Value

Total Debt 1,959 1,618 1,605 1,605

Senior Unsecured Notes Issued May 23, 2013 1,498

Adjusted Debt (1) 3,103

Equity Market Value 9,482 12,799 11,536

Total Debt / Equity Market Value (2) 17% 13% 27%

Free Cash Flow to Total Debt

Operating Cash Flow 1,194 2,079 2,376 603 679 2,452

Capital Expenditures (258) (247) (524) (64) (153) (613)

Dividends (26) (69) (103) (26) (25) (102)

Noncontrolling Interest (117) (146) (232) (21) (17) (228)

Free Cash Flow 793 1,617 1,517 492 484 1,509

Free Cash Flow / Total Debt (3) 0.4x 1.0x 0.9x 0.5x

ROIC Calculation

Operating Income 2,791 2,959 671 628 2,916

Tax @ 35% (977) (1,036) (235) (220) (1,021)

Net Operating Income After Tax 1,814 1,923 436 408 1,895

Cash (1,207) (2,275) (2,210) (2,210)

Short Term Borrowing - - -

Notes Payable - 5 5 5

Current Portion of LT Debt - - - -

Noncurrent Notes Payable 5 - - -

Long-term Debt 1,613 1,600 1,600 1,600

Non-Controlling Interest 386 380 385 385

Stockholders Equity 4,547 5,902 5,732 5,732

Invested Capital 5,344 5,612 5,512 5,512

ROIC (4) 34% 34% 34%

Return on Equity Calculation

Net Earnings Attributable to Common Stockholders 1,539 1,849 368 407 1,887

Stockholders Equity 4,547 5,902 5,732 5,732

ROE (5) 34% 31% 33%

CF Industries (in USD)

CF Industries Investor Day 11 Jun 2013

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Transcript of CF Industries Investor Day 11 Jun 2013