CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E...

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Press conference Peter Straarup, CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board August 10, 2010 INTERIM REPORT – FIRST HALF 2010 Tonny Thierry Andersen, CFO & member of the Executive Board

Transcript of CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E...

Page 1: CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E Macroeconomic indicators improve, but growth is still fragile %

Press conferencePeter Straarup, CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board

August 10, 2010

INTERIM REPORT – FIRST HALF 2010

Tonny Thierry Andersen, CFO & member of the Executive Board

Page 2: CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E Macroeconomic indicators improve, but growth is still fragile %

DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Financial results for H1 2010: Earnings growthcontinues

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-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2009 2010E 2011E

Macroeconomic indicators improve, but growth is still fragile

%

Source: Danske Research (July 2010).

GDP growth

Baltics

IrelandSweden

Finland

DenmarkEuroland

Norway

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11.7%10.8%

10.0%

14.1%13.1%

12.1%

Actual resultEnd-2009

Adverse scenarioEnd-2011

Adverse scenario + additional sovereign shock

End-2011

Danske Bank did well in EU stress test, with capital far above the requirement

DKK 40 bnin excess

capital

Tier 1 ratio

Minimum requirement

TransitionalCRD rules

Full CRDimplementation

6%

DKK 55 bnunder full

Basel II

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Revised Basel III proposal is a step in the right direction, but there are still some issues

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• Revised proposal from the Basel committee has addressed criticism from banks

• The proposal is favourable for Danske Bank, but

• Key concerns around the treatment of the unique Danish mortgage market have not been resolved

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Danske Bank’s payments for Bank Package I

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Bank Package IE x p e n s e s t h u s f a r

Guarantee fees 4.4

Provisions madeto FinancialStability 2.9

Total DKK 7.2 bn

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Stronger customer focus and a more efficient bank

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Customers like the digital signature and adopt it very quickly

40% of digitalised agreements are signed online

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Agreements with digital signature in eBanking(Denmark)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1.4

.09

1.5

.09

1.6

.09

1.7

.09

1.8

.09

1.9

.09

1.1

0.0

9

1.1

1.0

9

1.1

2.0

9

1.1

.10

1.2

.10

1.3

.10

1.4

.10

1.5

.10

1.6

.10

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Business Direct: A new advisory programme for smaller enterprises

What is your opinion of Business Direct?

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Advisory services on 70 13 30 00Mon-Wed 7.30-18.00Thur 7.30-21.00Fri 7.30-16.00

67%25%

8%

Positive Neutral Negative

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73.0

73.0 72.9

70.7

70.671.1

72.1 72.0

74.174.4

64

68

72

76

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10

Customer satisfaction on the rise and now above2008 level

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Customer satisfaction in DenmarkIndex

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Income declines 25%, as expected

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Trading income falls to a more normal level, although markets were volatile in Q2

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bp Spreads, Danske 30-year mortgage bond

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

30

-12

30

-01

28

-02

31

-03

30

-04

31

-05

30

-06

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Net interest income declines because of lowerinterest rates and higher funding costs

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% Danish central bank’spolicy rate

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

30

-06

31

-08

31

-10

31

-12

28

-02

30

-04

30

-06

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Insurance: High premium growth and risingearnings despite difficult investment markets

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Income growth of DKK 200m

Investment return of 5.4% (Traditionel) and 3.7% (Balance & Link )

Premium growth of 25%

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235 10

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14

16

H1 2009 H1 2010

Expenses

Large reduction of expenses more than offsets salary and price inflation

15

-5%

DKK bn

Goodwill impairment

charges

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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index

Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84

Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112

Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42

Other income 1,508 2,141 142

Income from insurance 561 756 135

Total income 32,283 24,143 75

Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95

Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -

Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64

Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53

Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132

Tax 1,642 1,426 87

Net profit 725 1,706 235

Loan impairment charges: Dominated by business customers, while personal customers manage fairly well

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5.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Personal

Business & financial

DKK bn Impairmentcharges broken

down by customertype

Distressed banks

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0

2

4

6

8

10

Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10

-400

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0

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800

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an

d

Ba

ltic

s

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rela

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ma

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Oth

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eden

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rwa

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rket

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Impairment charges are highest in Ireland, but aredeclining steadily from quarter to quarter

17

bp DKK bnImpairment charges/ lendingH1 2010

Impairment charges by quarter

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Results for our primary markets show a profit in five of seven countries

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-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

Norway Denmark Sweden Finland Baltics N. Ireland Ireland

Profit before tax, H1 2010Ex expenses for Bank Package I

DKK m

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Lending is increasing again, mainly in the Nordic region; deposits continue underlying positive trend

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Finansielle

Private

Erhverv

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

DKK bn Lending DKK bn Deposits

Note: Drop in deposits in Q110 owing to release of large deposit account at Danske Markets.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Q1

09

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

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Q2

10

Banking Activities Danske Markets

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Liquidity has improved further in 2010, and fundingneed for 2010 has already been met

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End of June 2010

Positive 36 mos.End-2008End-2009

DKK bn

-150

0

150

300

450

1 w

eek

2 w

eeks

3 w

eeks

1 m

onth

2 m

onth

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3 m

onth

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4 m

onth

s

5 m

onth

s

6 m

onth

s

9 m

onth

s

12

mon

ths

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5

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15

20

Tier 1 ratio Solvency ratio

H1 09 H1 10

Capital and solvency ratios improved significantly

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% Capital ratiosDKK 62 bn buffer above ICAAP result

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Outlook: Moderate economic growth, but 2010 will remain a challenging year

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Moderate economic growth

Expiry of Danish state guarantee on October 1 reduces expenses by about DKK 1 bn per quarter

Robust income from Banking Activities

Lower income from Danske Markets and Danica

Expenses expected to be lower than in 2009Increased focus on customer service and continuing focus on costs

Impairment charges lower than in 2009, but still high

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www.danskebank.com/ir

Please use the microphone at the side of your seat

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Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Danske Bank A/S in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Danske Bank believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors many of which are beyond Danske Bank’s control.

This presentation does not imply that Danske Bank has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

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