CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E...
Transcript of CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board CFO & member of the ... · -16-12-8-4 0 4 8 2009 2010E 2011E...
Press conferencePeter Straarup, CEO & Chairman of the Executive Board
August 10, 2010
INTERIM REPORT – FIRST HALF 2010
Tonny Thierry Andersen, CFO & member of the Executive Board
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Financial results for H1 2010: Earnings growthcontinues
2
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
2009 2010E 2011E
Macroeconomic indicators improve, but growth is still fragile
%
Source: Danske Research (July 2010).
GDP growth
Baltics
IrelandSweden
Finland
DenmarkEuroland
Norway
3
11.7%10.8%
10.0%
14.1%13.1%
12.1%
Actual resultEnd-2009
Adverse scenarioEnd-2011
Adverse scenario + additional sovereign shock
End-2011
Danske Bank did well in EU stress test, with capital far above the requirement
DKK 40 bnin excess
capital
Tier 1 ratio
Minimum requirement
TransitionalCRD rules
Full CRDimplementation
6%
DKK 55 bnunder full
Basel II
4
Revised Basel III proposal is a step in the right direction, but there are still some issues
5
• Revised proposal from the Basel committee has addressed criticism from banks
• The proposal is favourable for Danske Bank, but
• Key concerns around the treatment of the unique Danish mortgage market have not been resolved
Danske Bank’s payments for Bank Package I
6
Bank Package IE x p e n s e s t h u s f a r
Guarantee fees 4.4
Provisions madeto FinancialStability 2.9
Total DKK 7.2 bn
Stronger customer focus and a more efficient bank
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Customers like the digital signature and adopt it very quickly
40% of digitalised agreements are signed online
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Agreements with digital signature in eBanking(Denmark)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1.4
.09
1.5
.09
1.6
.09
1.7
.09
1.8
.09
1.9
.09
1.1
0.0
9
1.1
1.0
9
1.1
2.0
9
1.1
.10
1.2
.10
1.3
.10
1.4
.10
1.5
.10
1.6
.10
Business Direct: A new advisory programme for smaller enterprises
What is your opinion of Business Direct?
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Advisory services on 70 13 30 00Mon-Wed 7.30-18.00Thur 7.30-21.00Fri 7.30-16.00
67%25%
8%
Positive Neutral Negative
73.0
73.0 72.9
70.7
70.671.1
72.1 72.0
74.174.4
64
68
72
76
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10
Customer satisfaction on the rise and now above2008 level
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Customer satisfaction in DenmarkIndex
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Income declines 25%, as expected
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DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Trading income falls to a more normal level, although markets were volatile in Q2
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bp Spreads, Danske 30-year mortgage bond
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
30
-12
30
-01
28
-02
31
-03
30
-04
31
-05
30
-06
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Net interest income declines because of lowerinterest rates and higher funding costs
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% Danish central bank’spolicy rate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
30
-06
31
-08
31
-10
31
-12
28
-02
30
-04
30
-06
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Insurance: High premium growth and risingearnings despite difficult investment markets
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Income growth of DKK 200m
Investment return of 5.4% (Traditionel) and 3.7% (Balance & Link )
Premium growth of 25%
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235 10
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14
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H1 2009 H1 2010
Expenses
Large reduction of expenses more than offsets salary and price inflation
15
-5%
DKK bn
Goodwill impairment
charges
DKK m H1 2009 H1 2010 Index
Net interest income 14,134 11,934 84
Net fee income 3,683 4,116 112
Net trading income 12,397 5,196 42
Other income 1,508 2,141 142
Income from insurance 561 756 135
Total income 32,283 24,143 75
Operating expenses 13,968 13,259 95
Goodwill impairment 1,417 0 -
Profit bef. loan imp. charges 16,898 10,884 64
Loan impairment charges 14,531 7,752 53
Profit before tax 2,367 3,132 132
Tax 1,642 1,426 87
Net profit 725 1,706 235
Loan impairment charges: Dominated by business customers, while personal customers manage fairly well
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5.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Personal
Business & financial
DKK bn Impairmentcharges broken
down by customertype
Distressed banks
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Irel
an
d
Ba
ltic
s
N. I
rela
nd
Den
ma
rk
Oth
er
Fin
lan
d
Sw
eden
No
rwa
y
Ma
rket
s
Impairment charges are highest in Ireland, but aredeclining steadily from quarter to quarter
17
bp DKK bnImpairment charges/ lendingH1 2010
Impairment charges by quarter
Results for our primary markets show a profit in five of seven countries
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-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
Norway Denmark Sweden Finland Baltics N. Ireland Ireland
Profit before tax, H1 2010Ex expenses for Bank Package I
DKK m
Lending is increasing again, mainly in the Nordic region; deposits continue underlying positive trend
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Finansielle
Private
Erhverv
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
DKK bn Lending DKK bn Deposits
Note: Drop in deposits in Q110 owing to release of large deposit account at Danske Markets.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Banking Activities Danske Markets
Liquidity has improved further in 2010, and fundingneed for 2010 has already been met
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End of June 2010
Positive 36 mos.End-2008End-2009
DKK bn
-150
0
150
300
450
1 w
eek
2 w
eeks
3 w
eeks
1 m
onth
2 m
onth
s
3 m
onth
s
4 m
onth
s
5 m
onth
s
6 m
onth
s
9 m
onth
s
12
mon
ths
0
5
10
15
20
Tier 1 ratio Solvency ratio
H1 09 H1 10
Capital and solvency ratios improved significantly
21
% Capital ratiosDKK 62 bn buffer above ICAAP result
Outlook: Moderate economic growth, but 2010 will remain a challenging year
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Moderate economic growth
Expiry of Danish state guarantee on October 1 reduces expenses by about DKK 1 bn per quarter
Robust income from Banking Activities
Lower income from Danske Markets and Danica
Expenses expected to be lower than in 2009Increased focus on customer service and continuing focus on costs
Impairment charges lower than in 2009, but still high
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www.danskebank.com/ir
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Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Danske Bank A/S in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Danske Bank believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors many of which are beyond Danske Bank’s control.
This presentation does not imply that Danske Bank has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.
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