www.CentralArizonaProject.com December 2015

CAPConnectionswith Tribal Partners

Causes of Colorado River Shortage and Actions to Protect the River

Since 2000, water levels in Lake Mead have been declining consistently, bringing the reality of a declaration of shortage on the Colorado River into sharp focus, with a greater than 50% chance of shortage occurring in 2018. It is a common per-ception among most people that the long-term drought in the Southwest is the reason for the de-clining water levels in Lake Mead, but they are only partly right.

Most of the decline during the past 15 years has occurred because the Lower Colorado River Ba-sin states of Arizona, California, Nevada, as well as Mexico, collectively use more water than is normally available each year—about 1.2 million acre-feet (MAF) more. It is this imbalance be-tween water supply and water use, commonly referred to as a “structural deficit,” that causes

Lake Mead’s elevation to drop an average of about 12 feet every year, drought or no drought.

Here is why. As part of its responsibilities to man-age both Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) annually releases a certain amount of water from Lake Powell to Lake Mead, primarily based on hydrol-ogy and also on a consensus agreement devel-oped by the states and Reclamation in 2007. In a “normal” year, for example, Reclamation re-leases 8.23 MAF from Lake Powell for delivery to the Lower Basin. That is enough water to satisfy the combined Lower Basin entitlements of Cali-fornia (4.4 MAF), Arizona (2.8 MAF) and Nevada (0.300 MAF), and Mexico (1.5 MAF). But Lake

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Tohono O’odham Nation Joins Pilot System Conservation Program

During its September Board meeting, held on the Tohono O’odham Nation (TON), CAP welcomed TON to the Pilot System Conservation Program. The TON is the first tribe to formally enter the program and will commit 10,080 acre-feet of their CAP water. The water will now remain in Lake Mead to sup-port elevation levels. CAP has partnered with the United States Bureau of Reclamation, the Metropol-itan Water District of Southern California, the Southern Nevada Water Authority and Denver Water to fund water conservation pilot programs to counteract the declin-ing water levels in Lake Mead. CAP and its partners continue to look for ways to conserve water in Lake Mead in 2016 and beyond.

During the December Colorado River Wa-ter Users Association conference, held in Las Vegas, Nevada, CAP recognized the TON’s efforts as did former Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar who was also in attendance.

Mead loses around 600,000 AF annually due to evaporation and another 600,000 AF is attribut-able to system losses. System losses include about 100,000 AF because the United States is not op-erating the Yuma Desalting Plant. System losses can also occur when Colorado River contractors do not take delivery of water that they ordered; the most common example of this is, an irrigation district orders water but rainfall occurs and ne-gates the need for the Colorado River water that had already been released. The bottom line: the net annual loss to Lake Mead is about 1.2 MAF.

CAP cares about this imbalance because, when Lake Mead declines far enough that the Secre-tary of the Interior declares a Lower Basin short-age (e.g. 1,075 feet above sea level is the first shortage trigger elevation), it will be Arizona—and CAP in particular—that takes the first and biggest cut, restricting our use of 320,000 AF of water.

The water level in Lake Mead will continue to fall unless corrective action is taken and/or until ad-ditional above normal releases from Lake Powell occur. In order for the additional higher releas-es from Lake Powell to happen, however, winter snowpack and resulting summer runoff into Lake Powell will have to approach near record runoff conditions. Inflow into Lake Powell includes melt-ed snow pack from three major river systems in the Rocky Mountains: Green River in Wyoming, Upper Colorado River in north western Colorado, and the San Juan River in southwestern Colorado. Even with a very high runoff year, the positive ef-fects on Lake Mead and Lake Powell will be tem-porary as the structural deficit continues to erode the water level in Lake Mead.

Current Action and Next StepsRecognizing the risks from the structural deficit, Colorado River water managers, have taken steps to address declining water levels. In Decem-ber 2014, CAP, the Arizona Department of Water Resources and California and Nevada agencies entered into a Memorandum of Understand-ing (MOU) to conserve up to 740,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead by the end of 2017. As part of this MOU, CAP has worked with its agricultural and municipal customers who, in turn, have agreed to forebear the use of some of their CAP water to be stored in Lake Mead. CAP has also partnered with the federal government and other state organi-zations to develop a pilot program to save water in Lake Mead, which includes addressing some of the Colorado River system’s losses.

The goal of these efforts is to take additional vol-untary proactive measures to protect the reser-voir by reducing demands and system losses, thus increasing storage in Lake Mead. They are all positive steps on the road to improved Colora-do River management, but more will be needed. CAP is currently cooperating with partners in Ari-zona and the Lower Basin to identify longer-term solutions to the structural deficit. Long-term so-lutions may include projects like the desalination of seawater or brackish groundwater, as well as continued efforts to improve weather modifica-tion (cloud seeding) technologies and vegetative management. These new cooperative actions are the next steps to improve the river’s long-term sustainability, and will require significant new in-vestments as part of an overall effort to protect Arizona’s water supply.

Fact or Myth?More rainfall from an anticipated strong El

Niño will increase Colorado River streamflow. Myth. Although climate indicators, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can provide an outlook on whether a particular region will be wet vs. dry, or if it will experience cooler vs. warmer temperatures, El Niño itself is a poor pre-dictor of precipitation in the central and north-ern Rocky Mountains, which feed the Colorado River. El Niño years since 1963 are equally as-sociated with wet, normal and dry conditions in this region, so there is no definitive correlation between El Niño and increased Colorado River streamflow.

On the other hand, it is true that El Niño tradi-tionally has resulted in more precipitation in the Lower Basin and this may positively impact Ari-zona’s rivers such as the Salt, Verde, and Gila, as well as the water supply for farmers. In this case, Lake Mead elevations may experience a mod-est—but beneficial—boost if water demands from CAP and other Lower Basin water users are consequently reduced. Below, the dark green shaded areas of this NOAA map of the United States show the outlook for above average rain-fall associated with El Niño.

From page 1

Key 2016-2017 Budget Messages• Recurring non-labor departmental expens-

es are flat from 2015 budget level.• Total staff headcount (FTE) is held flat from

2015 budget level.• Capital expenditures are below advisory

levels from the previous budget and are within published rates.

• Budget will meet published firm and advi-sory water delivery rates.

• All essential work for 2016-2017 is included in the budget.

CAP Board Approves the 2016-2017 Budget On November 5, the CAP Board of Directors unan-imously passed the 2016-2017 biennial budget, which outlines the plan for the work needed and resources required to operate and maintain the CAP system for the next two years. CAP’s bud-get each year for the next two years is roughly $300 million in operating expenses and $45 mil-lion in capital spending, which are both compa-rable figures to the 2014-2015 budget.

Highlights from this biennial budget are that re-curring, non-labor expenses are flat from the last budget, and capital expenditures are below the previous budget’s advisory levels. These key points are emblematic of CAP staff’s efforts to be cost-conscious, while balancing the needs of the organization.

CAP does not operate for a profit, and its expens-es are based on the costs associated with reliably delivering Colorado River water to its customers in central and southern Arizona. CAP’s operating expenses include pumping power, salaries and related costs, amortization and depreciation of the CAP system, and other operating costs such as outside services, materials and supplies, and transmission costs. CAP’s largest expense is the power it takes to transport Colorado River wa-ter 336 miles across the state for delivery. The budget anticipates the cost of pumping energy in 2016 will increase 4% over this year, and an-other 4% increase in 2017 over 2016 figures. The 2016-2017 budget will operate within the pub-lished firm and advisory water delivery rates for customers.

For the past year, CAP staff has been working

across the organization to prepare the budget. Prior to CAP Board approval, CAP hosted a cus-tomer workshop to allow stakeholders an opportu-nity to review the budget with CAP staff and pro-vide input. About 20 stakeholders attended the October 8 meeting. In addition, CAP’s Finance, Power & Audit Committee also met to review and discuss the budget in a public forum in September and October, and those discussions were summa-rized at the following Board meetings.

For several years now, CAP has been recognized by the Government Finance Officers Associa-tion of the United States and Canada (GFOA) for the comprehensive and transparent manner in which it prepares and makes available its fiscal information. This independent firm requires the highest standard in governmental accounting and financial reporting. To access CAP’s 2016-2017 budget and for more information, please visit: www.cap-az.com

Annual State Legislative Staff Tour Visits Pascua YaquiOn November 19, CAP hosted several legislative staff members from the state House, Senate, and Legislative Council for a brief-ing and tour in Tucson. Attend-ees visited the Pascua Yaqui Tribe’s Casino Del Sol Resort for a luncheon and presenta-tion about the Tribe’s use of its CAP allocation. Both Chairman Yucupicio and outside counsel Robyn Interpreter briefed the delegation. As part of the tour, Tucson Water also presented.

Ted Cooke, Interim General ManagerMarie Pearthree, Deputy General Manager, Strategic Initiatives & Public Policy Kathryn Royer, Associate General Manager, Communications & Public Affairs Katosha Nakai, Manager, Stakeholder Relations & Strategic Development

CAP Connections is a publication of Central Arizona Project.

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