Central Banking in a Transforming Economy...Financial Education 30 •Create programs to stimulate...
Transcript of Central Banking in a Transforming Economy...Financial Education 30 •Create programs to stimulate...
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Central Banking in a Transforming Economy
Roberto Campos NetoGovernor of the Central Bank of Brazil
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Overview Macroeconomic Overview1. Inflation and expectations around the target
2. Selic at a historical low
3. Challenging external outlook
4. Credit cost reduction
5. Gradual economic recorvery
Agenda : BCB’s structural agenda6. Agenda BC+ so far
7. The future of the Brazilian Financial System
8. New dimensions
Conclusions
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL 2
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MACROECONOMICOverview
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4
Inflationaround the target
** Expected IPCA (Focus, 03/29/2019)Source: BCB / IBGE
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
0
2
4
6
8
10Se
p 1
5
Dec
15
Mar
16
Jun
16
Sep
16
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Dec
18
Mar
19
Jun
19
Sep
19
Dec
19
%
dec/19
3.89dec/18
3.75dec/17
2.95
dec/16
6.29
dec/15
10.67
TARGET 4.50TARGET 4.25
IPCA (12 months accumulated)
IPCA* Market expectations**
* feb/2019: 3,89
The conduct ofmonetary policy
- Caution, serenity andperseverance
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Anchoredexpectations
*Implied inflation expectations in inflation indexed bonds (NTN-B).**Implied inflation expectations in CPI futures (DAP).Source: BCB/IBGE
Inflation expectationsaround the target
8.1
5.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
%
Break-even inflation (01/29/2016)* Break-even inflation (07/29/2016)*
Break-even inflation (03/29/2019)** Actual IPCA
3.75
3.70
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14.25
6.505
7
9
11
13
15
% p
.y.
Focus* (12/31/2015) Focus* (12/30/2016) Focus* (6/30/2017)
Focus* (3/29/2019) Target for Selic rate
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Policy rate (Selic) at a historical low
Obs. : Median of market expectations, Focus survey.Source: BCB
- Stimulative real interest rate
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Challenging externaloutlook
The global outlook remains challenging to EMEs.
• On the one hand, the risks associated with a slowdown in global growth, as
a result of several uncertainties, are more elevated.
• On the other hand, the risks associated with normalization of interest rates
in some advanced economies have receded.
• The Brazilian economy has capacity to withstand a setback in the external
scenario, relying on its robust balance of payments, anchored inflation
expectations and prospects of economic recovery.
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Challenging externaloutlook
PM
I
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19
3/3
m a
nn
ual
rate
Global indexes
PMI Manufacturing New export orders (G7+China)
Capital goods production proxy, (right)*
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19
Number of 25 bps increases implicit in Fed Funds future markets
in 2019 in 2020
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Federal Reserve and BCB
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Challenging externaloutlook
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
USA Canada Australia UnitedKingdom
Germany Japan
% p
.y.
Sovereign bonds (10 y)
6-months period Current value
Recession Indicators – CautionYield Curve (10 years - 3 months)
Source: Bloomberg and BCB
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Emerging Markets:Portfolio Flows
Source: BCB
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19
Flo
ws
(US$
bill
ion
s)
Brazil Emerging Markets Total
Emerging Markets: South Africa, South Korea, United Arab Emirates, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam
10
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
% o
fG
DP
Source: BCB
Robust buffersCurrent account and net foreign investment flows
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
-00
Au
g-0
0
Mar
-01
Oct
-01
May
-02
Dec
-02
Jul-
03
Feb
-04
Sep
-04
Ap
r-0
5
No
v-0
5
Jun
-06
Jan
-07
Au
g-0
7
Mar
-08
Oct
-08
May
-09
Dec
-09
Jul-
10
Feb
-11
Sep
-11
Ap
r-1
2
No
v-1
2
Jun
-13
Jan
-14
Au
g-1
4
Mar
-15
Oct
-15
May
-16
Dec
-16
Jul-
17
Feb
-18
Sep
-18
Current account deficit / GDP FDI / GDP
4.77Feb
0.74Feb
12 months accumulated11
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Credit cost reduction
Credit cost
Source: BCB
The importance of guarantees
% p.y.
feb/19 mar/18-feb/19
ICC - Personal credit 119.3 120.8
ICC - Payroll-deducted personal loans 26.0 26.7
% p.y.
Period Total Non-earmarked Total Non-earmarked
May/2016 (A) 32.6 51.9 22.4 37.7
Feb/2019 (B) 25.0 38.5 21.1 32.5
B - A (p.p.) -7.6 -13.4 -1.3 -5.2
Interest rate ICC
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
ICC Spread Decomposition
Source: BCB
Deliquency Administrative Expenses Taxes and FGC ICC Financial Margin
37.36%
14.90%
22.76%
24.98%
2015-2017 average
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Credit card revolving rates - households
Credit costreduction
Source: BCB
Rates in Feb/2019 (% p.m.)Total 12.1
In good standing 11.6
Overdue 12.5
% p
.m.
9
11
13
15
17
May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 May 18 Sep 18 Jan 19
Total In good standing Overdue
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7
9
11
13
Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18
22
26
30
34
Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18
15
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Gradual reduction ofbanking spread
Feb/2019
25.4
oct/2016
33.7
jul/2016
12.4Feb/2019
9.6
Ho
use
ho
lds
(% p
.y.)
Co
mp
anie
s(%
p.y
.)
* Total creditSource: BCB
Avarege spread of
credit loans*
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
GDP gradual recovery
Market projections for 2019 (Focus 03/29/2019)Source: IBGE and BCB
160
165
170
175Se
p 1
6
Dec
16
Mar
17
Jun
17
Sep
17
Dec
17
Mar
18
Jun
18
Sep
18
Dec
18
Mar
19
Jun
19
Sep
19
Dec
19
Ind
ex, s
easo
nal
lyad
just
ed(1
99
5=1
00
)
2018
+1.1%
2019
+2.0%
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Dec
10.8
11.4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Mar
2012
Mar
2013
Mar
2014
Mar
2015
Mar
2016
Mar
2017
Mar
2018
Mar
2019
Unemployment Seasonally adjusted (forecast)
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
GDP gradual recovery
Labor MarketUnemployment rate
%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Feb2009
Feb2010
Feb2011
Feb2012
Feb2013
Feb2014
Feb2015
Feb2016
Feb2017
Feb2018
Feb2019
Ind
ex, s
easo
nal
lyad
just
ed(2
00
8=1
00
)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Construction
Absorption of capital goods (except: oilplatform)
%
Feb 18 Dec 18 Feb 19 Mar 19* Dec 19*
Unemployment rate
Observed 12.6 11.6 12.4 12.9 10.8
Seasonally adjusted 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.4
Employed population** 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7
Working force** 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8
*forecast
**annual increase
Annual avarege 2017 2018 2019*
Unemployment rate 12.7 12.3 11.9
Employed population** 0.3 1.3 1.4
Working force** 1.7 0.8 1.0
*forecast
**annual increase
Dec
Source: IBGE17
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
GDP Focus expectations
Source: BCB
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Dec
17
Jan
18
Feb
18
Mar
18
Ap
r 1
8
May
18
Jun
18
Jul 1
8
Au
g 1
8
Sep
18
Oct
18
No
v 1
8
Dec
18
Jan
19
Feb
19
Mar
19
2019 2020
GD
P G
row
th
18
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BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Economic growth depends on many factors:
• It is a work of government and society as a whole
• Reducing uncertainty and improving confidence are necessary
conditions for sustainable recovery
• Fiscal reforms
• Pension system reform
• Reforms to improve productivity
• tax, trade opening and improvement of the business
environment
• Future of the Agenda BC+
• Focus on investors: small or large; domestic or foreign.
Sustainablerecovery
A sustainable recovery of the
Brazilian economy depends on
the continuity of reforms and
adjustments
19
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BCB’s structural agenda
Agenda
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So far...
in 2016/17
19
in 2018
22
41actions
completedPillars:
• More financial citizenship
• More modern legislation
• More efficient financial system
• Cheaper credit
Agenda
21
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Technologicalevolution
• The innovation route has intensified in recent years with the increase of:
• Processing capacity;
• Information storage;
• Information organization; and
• The interpretation of information and the use of data.
22
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• We need to focus on the design of the financial system of the future:
● Democratize ● Digitalize
● De-bureaucratize ● Demonetize
• Tools to create this future:
● Blockchain ● Cloud
● Artificial Intelligence ● Digitalization
The future of thefinancial system
23
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• Inclusion
• Competitiveness
• Transparency
• Financial Education
New dimensinons
24
Agenda
14 new working groups to studymore closely each topic
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Inclusion
• Microcredit: • to increase the importance and the diffusion of microcredit in the market.
• Cooperativism: • to expand cooperativism in areas with low banking penetration, pursuing digital solutions.
• Capital Market: • to promote changes that allow the full development of our capital market.
• Converbility• to simplify rules, reduce bureaucracy and facilitate operations in the FX market.
• The TLP and the change in the BNDES’s focus have shown that, when the government
reduces, opening space in the market, private initiative flourishes.
• We will choose priorities and turn them into practical measures.
25
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-
36
72
108
144
180
Dec2015
Mar2016
Jun2016
Sep2016
Dec2016
Mar2017
Jun2017
Sep2017
Dec2017
Mar2018
Jun2018
Sep2018
Dec2018
R$ bi
292 264 234 230
-
150
300
450
600
Dec2015
Mar2016
Jun2016
Sep2016
Dec2016
Mar2017
Jun2017
Sep2017
Dec2017
Mar2018
Jun2018
Sep2018
Dec2018
Bilh
õe
s
R$ bi
26
Growth in the capital market
Source: BCB BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
DebenturesAccumulated emissions in twelve months
Bank credit and debenturesTotal outstanding
Accumulated emissions in twelve months Bank Credit
Debentures
265258
287
356
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Competitiveness
27
• Innovations:
• Instant payments:
• important mechanism to democratize the means of payments.
• Open Banking:
• to reduce entry barriers and increase competition.
• Guarantees:
• development of guarantee centers operating as mechanisms to diversify risks and provide means to
reduce market volatility.
• Cyber-security:
• this is a point of attention and risk in an increasingly digitized financial system.
• International reserves
• studies on the return and management of international reserves, and intervention instruments.
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Transparency
28
• Rural Credit: studies on a new financing model for rural activity with focus on small and medium producers.
• Real estate market: modernize the mechanisms used to raise funds, allowing transparency on subsidies and widening the options available to households.
• Relationship with Congress: strengthen the relationship with Congress and to study ways to make objectives and progresses measurable.
• Relationship with major investors: develop mechanisms to improve the relationship of the Brazilian government with large portfolio investors.
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Transparency
29
• Market Efficiency: enhance the efficiency in the market area of the BCB, generating synergies
and expanding the flow of information.
• Communication plan for the BCB actions: improve communication of our actions and
maintain frequent contact with the media and the public.
• Transparency and communication: develop objective and quantifiable methods to measure
the efficacy of our communication.
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Financial Education
30
• Create programs to stimulate financial education, through the deepening of actions with
market and government institutions, and using cooperatives and microcredit entities as
dissemination agents.
• Increase the participation of the population in the financial system and the generation of
savings.
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Conclusions
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• The global outlook remains challenging, with changes in the risks.
• The macroeconomic environment:
• Inflation around the target and anchored expectations;
• Gradual process of economic recovery;
• Interest rates at historical lows.
• Brasil needs to continue on the path of reforms, notably those of fiscal nature, and adjustments in
the economy.
32
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Conclusions
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The Central Bank of Brazil must keep working to:
• Keep inflation low and stable, maintaining the excellent conduct of monetary policy, and
continue to improve our communication;
• Keep the financial system solid and efficient, with a larger and more democratic capital market,
with participation of more households and firms;
• Reduce the cost of financial intermediation, increasing the efficiency of this service and
enhancing the competition.
33
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Conclusions
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• Keep inflation low and stable, maintaining the excellent conduct of the monetary
policy, and continue to improve our communication mechanisms;
• Keep the financial system solid and efficient, with a larger and more democratic capital
market, including more people and firms (small and large; domestic and foreign);
• Reduce the cost of financial intermediation, increasing the efficiency of this service and
enhancing the competition;
31
BANCO CENTRALDO BRASIL
Conclusions
Thank you