Central Asia Water Forum & Expo

WORLD BANK GROUP

19-22 September, 2016

Overview of the main challenges of Central Asia transboundary water

resources.

Dr. Saghit Ibatullin

Almaty

Region of the Aral Sea Basin

Scheme of Water resources of the Aral Sea basin

Water and Land Resources of the Region

Country

Total flow, km3/year Irragated land area Population

Syr Darya Amu Darya Total thousand.hа mln.p.

Kazakhstan 4,5 - 4,5 786,0* 3,1*

Kyrgizstan 27,4 1,9 29,3 1030,0 6,2

Tadjikistan 1,1 62,9 64,0 742,0 8,2

Turkmenistan - 2,78 2,78 1714,0 5,0

Uzbekistan 4,14 4,7 8,84 4300,0 31,3

Afghanistan - 6,18 6,18 320,0** 6,0**

Total 37,14 78,46 115,6 8890,0 60,1

* - Syr Darya Basin **- expert estimation.

Water withdrawal and availability in ASB

Aral Sea 1960 End of 2009

Surface

Area

67,500 km2

(4th in the

world)

8,409 km2

(88% loss)

Level 53.4 m Large Aral = 26.5 m;

Small Aral = 42 m

Volume 1090 km3 90 km3 (92% loss)

Average

salinity

10 g/l Large Aral > 100 g/l,

In Western part is

probably > 200 g/l,

In Eastern part (hyper

saline);

Small Aral = 10-14 g/l

The sea dynamics

Satellite image of the Aral Sea, 2009 and 1960s shoreline

8

The modern challenges and threats to the sustainable development of Central Asia

1. Climate change: loss of glacier reserves, expected reduce of waterflow by 10-15%, increase of natural disasters.

2. Degradation of water and land resources, ecosystem destruction:desertification, reduce in water quality, loss of biodiversity.

3. Population growth in the Central Asian states: increasing deficiencyof water resources, reduction of specific water availability in 3,5times, there is a need for additional annual 700-800 mln m3 ofwater.

Social and Economic Issues

1. The water and energy balance scheme among the region countries, which had been established in the USSR, was broken.

2. Till 1992: reservoirs of the upstream countries worked in the irrigation mode:

- in winter they stored 70% of the flow and the power deficit was covered by hydrocarbons supply from the lower countries

- in summer water was discharged to the lower countries for irrigation needs.

3. After 1992 due to short deliveries or high coal, gas, fuel oil prices, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had to discharge 70% of the flow for generation of additional power during winter periods.

Consequences

- catastrophic floods of the territories (mainly of Kazakhstan) in winter;

- summer droughts in the lower reaches of rivers, crop failure, termination of the delta lakes replenishment (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan).

Key Regional Agreements

• Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Joint Management on

Utilization and Protection of Water Resources from Interstate

Sources (1992, five CA counties)

• Agreement on Joint Actions for Addressing the Problems of the Aral

Sea and its Coastal Area, Improving of the Environment and

Ensuring the Social and Economic Development of the Aral Sea

Region (1993, five countries)

• Agreement on the Use of Water and Energy Resources of the Syr-

Darya Basin (1998, four countries)

• Framework Convention on Environmental Protection for Sustainable

Development in Central Asia (2006, five countries – in the process of

ratification

• Provision on IFAS (1993,1999, five countries)

• Provisions on EC IFAS, ICWC, ICSD

Aim 1. Continued cooperation aiming improvement of the ecological and

socio-economic situation in the Aral Sea Basin.

Aim 2. Development of mutually acceptable mechanisms for integrated

use of water resources and environmental protection in Central Asia taking

into account interests of all states in the Region.

System aims and key objectives of EC IFAS

Objective 1. Enhancement of activities and development of collaborationwith the UN institutions EU OSCE and others.

Objective 2. Further improvement of organizational and legislative basisof the IFAS seeking to increase efficiency of its activities

Objective 3. Better interrelationship with financial institutions and donororganizations for implementation of projects and programmes aimed toaddress the Aral Sea basin issues.

Objective 4. Implementation of Action Programme on providing assistance to the countries of the Aral Sea basin for the period of 2011-2015 (the Aral Sea Basin Programme- 3) for further consideration and approval by the states-stakeholders of the IFAS.

1. Integrated use of water resources taking in the account the interests of all states in the region;

2. Ecological direction;

3. Socio-economic direction;

4. Strengthening institutional-legislative mechanisms.

• Resolution of the Board of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea on approval of the Third Aral Sea Basin Program (ASBP-3) for 2011-2015, August 2011

Decisions for support ASPB -3.

• Statement by the Donors and Implementing Agencies1 on the Occasion of thePresentation of the Third Aral Sea Basin Program (ASBP-3) Almaty for 2011-2015, 9 December 2010

The main directions of the ASBP-3:

etc.

1. Studying of opportunities for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to join the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigation Water Uses of International Watercourses (1997)2. Studying of opportunities for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to join the 1992 UNECE Water Convention (Helsinki Convention)3. Development of a regional water strategy for Central Asian countries (Aral Sea basin) with due regard for climate change, demographic growth, and the needs of key economic sectors and ecosystems

4. Introduction of IWRM as a tool for green development and adaptation to climate change4.1. Development of a set of measures to implement IWRM principles at the level of

inter-state basins4.2. Expanding IWRM implementation at a national level with setting concrete IWRM

dissemination plans5. Development of an updated version of the Regional Environment Action Plan (REAP)in the context of climate change

Political objectives

6. An interstate agreement on the exchange of hydrological information in Central Asia.

Creation of a single information space in Central Asia with a database for decision support in the region

Implementation of the Concept of Development of an Information Network on Water and Related Issues in Central Asia approved at the 63th ICWM session

- Development of a regional and basin information systems and agreement of protocols and exchange procedures

- Creation and development of national information systems and agreement of protocols and exchange procedures

- Signing of the draft agreement On Information & Analytical Support of Integrated Management, Use and Protection of Water Resources in the Aral Sea Basin and Organization of Inter-state Information Exchange

Common or coordinated programs of transboundary water monitoring in the Aral Sea basin countries

- improving national monitoring and assessment systems- system of national planning and assessment of impact which requires that regional

factors should be taken into account

Development of models for forecasting the condition of water resources in view of global climate change

Development and implementation of a program of improvement and dissemination of water and climate change forecasts

Diversion of information spaceGovernments International organizations and donors

ICSD R&D Center Portal

EC IFAS web-site

RGC web-site

CAREWIB IS + 5 NIS

CAWater-Info portal

Sustainable Development

Regional projects (IWRM-Ferghana, WPI-PL, RESP2, etc.)

Information consumers:• IFAS, ICWC, ICSD (+executive bodies)• Research and Design Institutions of CA• Water (basin and system) agencies of CA

Single information space

National Basin Organizations

WWS, INBO EECCA, ICID, other international organizations

ProjectsClimate

and Flow Forecasts

Water,Land

NHMS/RGCEC IFASICSD NHMS/RGC

hyperlinks hyperlinks hyperlinks

SIC ICWC/BWO Amu/ BWO Syr/ UNECE / ZOI

Measures for improving the quality and accuracy of water measurement

Development of national plans of re-equipment with modern water recording devices (level gages, flow meters, SCADA), first of all for main canals

Introduction of automation equipment:- automation of facilities in the Syrdarya basin and transmission of data to all users in

the basin- automation of main diversion facilities in the Amudarya basin and transmission of data

to all users (in order of priority)

Organization of remote monitoring of forests and runoff formation zonesCreation of a system of remote monitoring of land condition in each basin

Development of small hydropower and alternative energy sourcesPreparation of a Small Hydropower Development Scheme for the Aral Sea BasinPreparation of an Alternative Energy Sources Development Scheme for the Aral Sea Basin

Expectations of EC IFAS of cooperation with international organizations

1. Creating a broad political and investment arena for IFAS activities by means of:

а) converging interests of IFAS and opportunities of political and financialinstitutes (donors);

b) better coordination among donors in investing in programs and projects incountries;

c) establishing a system of motivations and priorities for financing of regionalprojects included in the ASBP-3 (ASBP -4).

2. Support in the process of the ASBP-3 (ASBP-4) implementation.3. Support in the process of establishing mechanisms of monitoring:- preventive response to environmental threats as measures to strengthen

regional security- interstate date base exchange on transboundary waters