Central and East European International Studies AssociationThe 8th Convention

15-17 June 2011, Kadir Has University, Istanbul

Russia and China: ‘Post-Westphalian’ Foreign Policy Choices in a Comparative Perspective

Igor TomashovHigher School of Economics, Moscow

Moscow – Istanbul, 2011

The Post-Liberal World

• 2000s: The crisis of liberalism and global governance

• Russia and China: Authoritarian capitalism as a rival to liberal democracy

• Not Westphalian, yet not Post-Westphalian international environment

• How Russia and China shape the world and how they are shaped by the world?

Methodology

• Approach to the present-day international order: Status-Quo or Revisionism?

• Methods of decision-making: Ideology or Pragmatism?

• Use of instruments of power: ‘Soft Power’ or ‘Hard Power’?

• Understanding of international relations: Sovereignty or Interdependence?

Status-Quo or Revisionism?

• Russia– 2003-2004: Turning point in international strategy– Nostalgic and defensive revisionism

• China– Tend to adopt more and more assertive stance,

but not radically change the world order– No reason to be a revisionist power, as status-quo

is in many ways advantageous for it

Ideology or Pragmatism?

• Russia– Pragmatic foreign policy after the end of the Cold war– From ‘damage limitation’ to ‘down-to-earth macho

position’ (Arbatov)– Pragmatism as ideology

• China– Deng Xiaoping’s seminal pragmatism– ‘Pragmatism first’, but also remain adherent to

communist ideology at the official level

‘Soft Power’ or ‘Hard Power’?

• Russia– Deep ‘hard power’ tradition– Russian-Georgian War of 2008 and other demonstrative

actions– No balanced approach to ‘hard power’ and ‘soft power’– ‘Sovereign democracy’ is a home-grown concept, and has

little export potential

• China– Invests both in ‘hard power’ and ‘soft power’

Sovereignty or Interdependence?

• Russia– Benefits from interdependence and strengthens its

sovereignty– Favors multi-polarity – interdependence of sovereign

actors– Ideological approach to sovereignty

• China– Stalls between the need to respect sovereignty and

embededness into an interdependent world– Pragmatic approach to sovereignty

ConclusionRUSSIA CHINA

Status-Quo or Revisionism? Revisionism (nostalgic) Status quo

Ideology or Pragmatism? Pragmatism (opportunistic) Pragmatism

‘Hard Power’ or ‘Soft Power’?

Hard Power Hard + Soft Power

Sovereignty or Interdependence?

Sovereignty Sovereignty

Foreign Policy Consistency Adhocism, opportunism Balanced and strategic

Foreign Policy Outlook Foreign policy by default Foreign policy by design

POST-WESTERN WORLD?