Centraal Bureau voor de StatistiekStatistics Netherlands Return migration rates of recent immigrants...

Centraal Bureau voor de StatistiekStatistics Netherlands

Return migration rates of recent immigrants compared to flows in

the previous century

UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva

17-19 October 2012

Han Nicolaas

Statistics Netherlands


Overview

• Introduction

• History

• Migration from Poland

• Comparison of EU-countries

• Conclusions


Introduction

• Poland: main country of origin of immigrants who came to the Netherlands in 2011

• Immigration behaviour of Polish: comparable to Turks/Moroccans or more to Spaniards/Italians?

• Will Polish labour migrants generate a new phase of family migration?


Immigration and emigration: the Netherlands

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

x 1,000

Immigration


Immigration and emigration: the Netherlands

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

x 1,000

Immigration

Emigration


Migration: foreign born persons, 2011

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Poland

Germany

former Soviet Union

China

Bulgaria

Neth. Antilles + Aruba

USA

United Kingdom

Turkey

India

immigration emigration


Share of women in immigration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%

Turks Moroccans



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%

Turks Moroccans Spaniards Italians


Return migration of migrants from Mediterranean countries, 1964-1973

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

< 1 yr < 2 yr < 3 yr < 4 yr < 5 yr < 6 yr < 7 yr < 8 yr < 9 yr < 10 yr

duration of stay

%

Spaniards

Italians


Return migration of migrants from Mediterranean countries, 1964-1973

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


duration of stay

%

Spaniards

Italians

Turks

Moroccans


Share by age group of Turkish and Italian immigrants

Turks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%

0 - 19 years 20 - 29 years 30 years or older


Share by age group of Turkish and Italian immigrants

Turks Italians

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%



Migration from Poland

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

x 1,000

Immigraton Emigration Net migration



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

%

Turks Italians


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

%

Turks Italians Poles (1999-2009)



Polish immigrants by household position

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2003 2009

%

single person child in couple w ith children in couple w ithout children other

year of immigration


Share by age group of Polish immigrants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

%



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


duration of stay

%

Spaniards

Italians

Return migration of migrants from Mediterranean countries (1964-1973)

and from Poland (2000-2009)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


duration of stay

%

Spaniards

Italians

Turks

Moroccans






0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


duration of stay

%

Spaniards

Italians

Turks

Moroccans

Poles


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996-2002 2003-2009

%

Single In couple w ith child In couple w ithout child Other Totalyear of immigration

Return migration of Poles within 7 years after immigration, by household position


Return migration of EU-citizens within 7 years after immigration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

EU-14 EU-10 Bulgaria & Romania

%

1996-2002 2003-2009

Year of immigration


Conclusions

• Mediterranean immigrants in the previous century are different from recent labour migrants in terms of age, sex and household position

• Labour migrants from Turkey/Morocco generated family migrants. As yet, Poles do not

• Based on actual high return emigration rates, recent high EU-immigration will lead to high emigration in time


Questions?

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