W. Lee Ellenburg Graduate Research Assistant Earth System Science Center UAHuntsviile
Center for Science in the Earth System
description
Transcript of Center for Science in the Earth System
Center for Science in the Earth System
Annual Meeting
June 8, 2005
Briefing: Hydrology and water resources
1. CSES-funded projects
Hydrologic impacts of 20th Century climate change in the western U.S.
Source: Mote et al. (2005)
Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
Relative Trend in April 1 SWE
(% per year)
1916-1997Effects of Temp
DJF
AV
G T
(C
)
Source: Hamlet et al, 2005
Decadal Climate Variability Doesn’t Explain the Loss of SWE Due to Warming
1947-971925-46
with 1977-95
Relative SWE Trends Due to Temperature Effects Alone (% per year)
1916-97
Source: Hamlet et al, 2005
Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Inputs to Puget Sound
Elevation (m)
Digital Elevation Model of the Puget Sound Drainage Basin at 1/8th Degree
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evapotranspiration
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ET
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Current Climate 2040s (+2.5 C)
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Ba
sin
Av
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d R
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(m
m)
current climate
composite 2040
Changes in (Runoff + Baseflow) to Puget Sound for Comp2040 Scenario (+ 2.5 C)
Hydrologic Data for Planning Studies
Selected Studies/Models Currently Supported:
ColSim (monthly)
IDWR/SnakeSim (weekly)
NWPCC GENESYS (split month)
USBR Flathead Study (daily)
Salmon River salmon impacts (daily)
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obs week
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1 62 123 184 245 306 367 428 489 550 611 672 733 794 855 916 977 1038 1099 1160 1221 1282 1343 1404 1465 1526 1587 1648 1709 1770
obs daily
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Reconstructed Naturalized Weekly and Daily Flows at Palisades Dam for 1958-1992
Str
eam
flow
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s)
Weekly Flow 1958-1992
Daily Flow 1958-1962
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Series1
Series2
New data processing methods were developed to produce daily time step climate change data for USBR Flathead River study
Average July PotET over the Southern Plain Region Current Climate vs. MPI2040 scenario
Current Climate MPI2040
PotET (mm/day)
Trends in July Avg PotET over the Southern Plain Region from 1915-2002
y = -0.0061x + 7.3589
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tET
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m/d
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Linear (jul)
Regional-Scale Decision Support for Small Watershed
Planning
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soil storage
evapotranspiration
Example:Hydrologic Summary for WRIA 38Naches River Basin1916-2003
Elevation (m)
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m W
ater
Bal
ance
(m
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ater
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precipitation
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runoff+baseflow
soil storage
evapotranspiration
CurrentClimate
Changes
Change in Basin Water Balance for the Naches River
2040s
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Bas
in A
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no
ff (
mm
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current climate
composite 2040
Projected Changes in Streamflow Timing for the Naches River
Snake River water and climate studies
Snake River Basin
• Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies
• Research Goal: Comprehensive simulation model– SnakeSim incorporate current system operations, water rights,
and surface-groundwater interactions – Accomplishments
• Completed simulation model incorporates flexible water rights, groundwater operations, environmental targets, and hydropower production
• SWE-based statistical forecasting approach developed for the determination of flood storage, water rights allocation, and fish flow requirements
– The statistical forecast replaces perfect forecasting approach currently used in Bureau and State (IDWR) planning models
Snake River Basin
• Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies
• Research Goal: Comprehensive optimization model– SIRAS incorporates current system operations to optimize crop
selection and irrigation, groundwater pumping practices, hydropower production, and instream flow target satisfaction
– Accomplishments• Completed optimization model uses an economic objective function
to develop sustainable system-wide long-term operating practices
• Currently under development: statistical correlation of optimal operating practices to SWE, to develop new operating rules for use in SnakeSim
Results: Simulated System ImpactsSnake System Active Storage, 1928-1992 meanClimate Change Scenario Comparison
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Base Case
Comp2020
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sand
Acr
e-Fe
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Instream Flow Delivered, Total, 1981-1990
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hc2020 hc2040 mp2020
mp2040
Energy Production (MWhr), BOR, 1981-1990
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hr
2. Related projects
PNW CA Energy Transfers
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orm
aliz
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ual
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Pro
du
ctio
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PNW
CA
Covariation of CA and PNW Hydropower from 1917-2002
Source: Voisin et al, 2005
Predictability of PNW Surplus Hydropower as a Function of ENSO and PDO
Source: Voisin et al, 2005
West-wide experimental hydrologic forecast system
Forecast System Overview
Modeling Framework
Soil MoistureInitial
Condition
SnowpackInitial Condition
Forecast points and sample streamflow forecasts
targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes
monthly hydrographs
Incorporating climate change
information into the long-range planning
process of Seattle Public Utilities
Techniques to Incorporate Climate Change Impacts into Seattle’s Long-Range Water
Supply Planning
• Purpose:– Assess/develop techniques for incorporating
climate change information into the long-range planning process of Seattle Public Utilities (SPU).
– Demonstrate techniques by assessing potential impacts of climate change to the Seattle water supply.
Impacts of Climate Change in Seattle
• Trend fit to all GCM points shows a decrease of ~6 MGD per decade in the system yield.
• Substantial spread in the results from each GCM.
• Incorporating impacts and uncertainty into the planning process
Stream temperature modeling
Single reach stream temperature model (from Sridhar et al, 2004)
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0 10 20 30 405
Kilometers
±
Snohomish sub-basins and model output points
Stream Temperature ModelSimulating continuous flow and temperature data at un-monitored locations for use as habitat parameters in salmon population model.
Flow at Taylor River
Temp at Taylor River
Seasonal streamflow forecasts for utilities
in the Puget Sound basin
Probability of not exceeding given historic flow thresholdsMONTH min 25th 50th 75th max05/2005 0.69 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0006/2005 0.16 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.0007/2005 0.16 0.72 0.90 0.99 1.0008/2005 0.00 0.29 0.59 0.87 1.0009/2005 0.00 0.10 0.26 0.61 1.0010/2005 0.00 0.09 0.30 0.69 0.99Ensemble predicted flows (cfs) at specified percentilesMONTH 1% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 99%05/2005 75 98 101 119 128 144 150 159 171 193 215 247 29006/2005 48 55 58 70 88 102 114 129 150 177 203 225 27107/2005 35 38 44 48 56 61 65 72 77 93 109 129 20608/2005 31 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 52 64 75 95 11509/2005 35 39 39 44 55 63 72 83 92 122 175 187 31310/2005 33 51 80 103 124 168 182 203 234 259 328 345 411
• Graphic and tabular forecasts of streamflows into the water supply reservoirs on the Cedar, S.F. Tolt, Sultan and Green Rivers
Mid-range Forecasts for Utilities in the Puget Sound
• Web based delivery and e-mail distribution of pdf summary
Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan
• Purpose: Examine the robustness of Chinook salmon recovery plans with the potential impacts of future climate change, climate variability, and land use
changes in the Snohomish River Basin. • Goal: Choose the alternatives that most improve
salmon populations.
SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan
Location of the Snohomish River Basin
2001 Land Use 2025 Current Path Land Use
2025 Restoration Path Land Use
SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan
• Accomplishments:– Climate model- 2 GCMs– Hydrologic model- DHSVM
Model Linkages