Center for Environmental Systems Research - University of Kassel Possible impacts of climate change...

Center for Environmental Systems Research - University of Kassel

Possible impacts of climate change on water availability – sensitivity anlysis and response

surfaces

M. Weiß and J. Alcamo

M. Weiß and J. Alcamo WP 6.2 meeting, Helsinki

WaterGAP-overview-

• Physiograhic, socio-economic and climate data to model globally current and future water availability and water uses

• The hydrological model calculates daily water balances on a 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid call basis

• The water use model calculates water withdrawals for the different sectors household, industry (manufacturing and electricity production) and agriculture (livestock and irrigation).

• By comparison of water availability and water use we can calculate various water stress factors on a river basin scale


Sensitivity analysis and response surfaces

• The European continent is covered by more than 6000 cells at a typical size of about 35 km to 55 km (depending on latitude)

•18 case study river basins selected

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Lule River

Po

ElbeRhine

SeineLoire

Tagus

Douro

Glomma

Thames

Danube

ShannonVistula

KemijokiAngerman

Tiber River

Guadalquivir

Vaenern Goeta

Glo

mm

a

Ke

mijo

ki

Lule

_Riv

er

Vae

nern

_Goe

ta

Ang

erm

an

Sha

nnon

Tha

mes

Elb

e

Rh

ine

Sei

ne

Da

nube

Loi

re

Po

Tag

us

Dou

ro

Gua

dalq

uivi

r

Vis

tula

Tib

er_

Riv

er

0

400

800

1200

-4

0

4

8

12

16

yearly average precip ita tion

yearly average tem perature

[m m /year] [°C ]


Response of water availability to climate variations

Sensitivity analysis I

• based on the 1961-1990 climate averages (CRU, New et al., 2000)

• changes in longterm annual temperature averages (-5°C - +5°C)

• and longterm annual precipitation averages (-50% - +100%)

• preliminary analysis of changes in the longterm average river discharge

• preliminary analysis of changes in the longterm average yearly flow regime (monthly mean discharges)

• first studies on impact thresholds



annual variation, longterm average discharges SA I



annual variation, longterm average discharges




dT=+5°C=const

dT=0°C=const

dP=+100%=const

dP=0%=const

-50 0 50 100

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

D anube

chan

ge in

dis

char

ge [%

]

change in precipitation [% ]

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10D anube

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]

change in tem perature [°C ]

-50 0 50 100

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

D anube

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]

change in precip itation [% ] -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

200

210

220

230

240

250

260D anube

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]





-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

-50 0 50 100

Lule

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]

change in precipitation [% ]

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Lule

chan

ge in

dis

char

ge [%

]


-50 0 50 100

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500Lule

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]

change in precip itation [% ] -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

110

120

130

140

150

160Lule

chan

ge in

dis

cha

rge

[%]


dT=+5°C=const

dT=0°C=const

dP=+100%=const

dP=0%=const


In their response, the river

basins can be divided into

the three groups: northern,

central, and southern

European basins

Fig.: RS for northern, central, southern European catchments

Guadalquivir (Southern

Europe)

Danube (Central Europe)

Lule (Northern Europe)





annual variation, longterm monthly mean dischargesDanube - variation of precipitation at T=const

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

months

lon

g-t

erm

mo

nth

ly a

ve

rag

e

dis

ch

arg

e [

km

³] 0_+100

0_+75

0_+25

0_0

0_-25

0_-50

Danube - variation of temperature at P=const

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

months

lon

g-t

erm

mo

nth

ly a

ve

rag

e

dis

ch

arg

e [

km

³] -5_0

-2_0

0_0

2_0

5_0


Threshold studies

• competitive uses a) within society itself, i.e. the different sectorsb) society vs. environment.

various operational thresholds, e.g. minimum flows for hydropower

Envrionmental flow, e.g. thresholds based on technical guidance from the EU Water Framework Directive

water stress indicators

return intervalls of extremes, e.g. drought frequencies

• Thresholds are sector-, region- and system-dependent

global water studies



Sensitivity analysis II

• based on the 1961-1990 climate averages (CRU TS 2.1, Mitchell and Jones, 2005)

• changes in longterm seasonal temperature averages (JJA) (-3°C - +3°C)

• and longterm seasonal precipitation averages (JJA) (-50% - +50%)

• preliminary analysis of changes the longterm mean summer river discharge



seasonal variation, longterm average discharges SA II (JJA)


Perturbed Physics Experiment



annual variation, longterm average discharge

1990-2010

2080-2100


Points of discussion

• relationship between annual and seasonal climate changes

coupling function

• Interpolation of climate information

• probabilities

Center for Environmental Systems Research - University of Kassel Possible impacts of climate change...

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