Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn

Food security challenges for the future -Agricultural productivity and the growing role of R&D

Joachim von BraunCenter for Development Research (ZEF)

University of Bonn

AGRINATURA Board meeting, ZEF April 2013

Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013

World food security?

• Availability

• Access

• Nutritional value

• Stability


The Changing Equation of World Food and Agriculture

Supply =Land

Water

Inputs & Transport costs

Workforce

Climate change

Farm size structure

Technology

DemandIncome growth

Poverty and inequality

Consumer behavior

Bioenergy

Biomass (CO2)

Prices, Markets & TradePrices and speculationInternational tradeSupermarkets


Which time subscripts „t“ are relevant for which nutrition problems?

• Long-term (decade/year):

nutritional status (stunting);

water-, land-use; climate, technology; polit. change; investments

• Medium-term (months):

nutrient deficiencies (Cal., micro-nutrients);

weather, grain stocks

• Short-term (weeks, days):

nutrition shocks in early childhood;

trade shocks (export bans), shocks in commodity and financialmarkets


Consumption and food security challenge production


World population 2050- from 7 to 9 Billion -

Source: Worldmapper 2009.

The 9 Billion will eat like 12 Billion


Increased Global Food Demand 2010 – 2021 ca. + 20% per decade

Quelle: OECD – FAO Agriculture Outlook 2012-2020, 2012.

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Energy and climate change impact on the demand and supply side


Nexus Perspective neededwater - food - energy

Bonn2011 Conference: The water, energy and food security nexusSolutions for the Green Economy, 16-18 Nov. 2011


Energy and biofuels

• Energy prices now affect not just agric. input prices, but also output prices strongly via biofuel-land competition

• Increased biofuel demand contributed to 30% of increase of grain prices by 2008

© Dave Reede Photography.


Increase of global energy consumption by 40 % in 2030

Biomass for energy use will grow

Source: IEA, 2009


Climate change implications for agriculture

• Substitution to drought resistant crop species

• Demand for development of drought resistant varieties

Dry DaysSoil Moisture

Source: IPCC 2007. Figure shows changes for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999


Farm size and land


How did farm size change in past 40 years (1970 – 2010)

Change of

numbers of

farms (%)

Average size

in (ha)

from – to

China + … 0,6 - 0,4

Africa + … 1,6… (2007)

India + 58 2,2 - 1,2

Brazil + 6 59 - 68

US - 26 374 - 418

Sweden - 47 32 - 43

Source: FAOSTAT, US Census Bureau, IBGE, Statistics Sweden, Eurostat


Total arable land is limited

• Climate change, urbanization and degradation affectarable land

• Protection of forests imposes further environmental limits

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

Global Arable Land (Mio ha)

Source: FAOSTAT


Land shortage and land degradationconstrain production

42% of the poor live in degraded areasSource: Bai et al., 2008.


Water use and supply

Germany is No. 7 in terms of water foot print

Source: 2030 Water Resources Group, 2009.

Fresh water withdrawal is 60% above sustainable supply


Investment in land(sales and long term lease)

Source: Land Matrix Homepage (accessed May 6, 2012)

Data: Land Matrix Project, April 2012


Productivity, technology and R&D feed the world


Global Agric. Production Growth

Annual growth rates (%)

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2002-2011 2012-2021

Source: OECD – FAO Agriculture Outlook 2012, 2012.


Yield gaps: where may they be tapped?

Source: N.D Mueller et.al. Nature 2012


Innovation feeds the world

Source: IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.

Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture

Beitrag vonTFP

Inputintensivierung

Bewässerung

Anbauflächen-erweiterung


Innovation: Economic Regime and Agriculture

Lao PDR

Cambodia

Mauritania

Nepal

Cote d'IvoireBangladeshSudan

Ethiopia

Guinea

EritreaSierra Leone

Myanmar

Haiti

Tajikistan GhanaZambia

LesothoYemen, Rep.

Burkina Faso

Mali RwandaTanzania

Madagascar

Mozambique

Brazil

China

Guatemala

Sri Lanka

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

Kenya

Senegal

UgandaMalawi

Bolivia

Pakistan

Nigeria

Zimbabwe

BeninCameroon

12

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0 1 2 3 4 5EconIncentiveRegime

Low Innovation - Low Incentive Low Innovation - High Incentive

High Innovation - Incentive High Innovation - Low Incentive

Source: Pangaribowo and Gerber (2013), calculation based on KEI 2012

Econ and Institution Regime: tariff and nontariff barriers, regulatory quality and rule of lawSource: KAM (2012) and WDI (2010)


Markets and prices


Imbalances in world food trade(cereals, flour, oils, feed for animal production)

Source: Cargill.

Trade surplusses and deficits in Mio. t


Food price crises 2008 and 2011: New price levels, volatility, extreme spikes

Quelle: FAO, FAO Giews.

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Globaler Getreidepreisindex

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But: Area decisions almost as volatile as yieldoutcome

Area uncertainty a challange for

• input industry• storage decisions• food security


Oil Prices Remain High

Source: USDA Outlook 2013


Which prices drive food prices (and vice versa)?

• input prices

• land price

• labor wages

• water price (costs)

• energy price

• financial asset (commodities)

All these prices are more interlinked

And volatility is a disincentive for investment

Food prices


Getting ready for the Bioeconomy


Inter-linked Value Chains: Bioeconomy

Quelle: BECOTEPS, 2011.


Biomass and its products -- Bioeconomy

Biomass

Foods and beverages______________

Bio-energy

Staples / animal feeds

Bio materials

Biochemicals

Source: Bioeconomy Council, Germany, 2010


Towards zero waste and reduced losses

Source: J. Gustafson et.al. FAO 2011

Waste and losses are very different things, and Kilogram is not appropriate unit of measurement


Strategic food and nutrition security agenda1. Risk prevention: Promotion of agriculture productivity across

value chains with research and technology and investment (public and private) to address price levels and risks on supply side in sustainable ways.

2. Risk management: Facilitation of reduced market volatility and spikes with appropriate stocks, more trade openness, appropriate regulation, and international cooperation.

3. Social protection: productive safety nets, (conditional) cash transfers; expanded action for nutrition security of children.

4. Insurance systems: insurance of crops, peoples health and disabilities, public insurance mechanisms for catastrophic events in poor countries (e.g. regional droughts, climate shocks)


EU science agenda: key for international food security

• Sustainable food security under climate change: modelling, benchmarking and policy research,

• Sustainable growth and intensification of agricultural systems under current and future resource availability,

• Assessing and reducing trade-offs between food production, biodiversity and ecosystem services,

• Adaptation to climate change and Greenhouse gas mitigation

See: FACCE – JPI, Strategic Research Agenda. Agriculture, Food Security, and Climate Change 2012

www.faccejpi.com

Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn

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