Census data, the COAG data and spatial analysis

Matthew James

Outline• The COAG targets and Census data

• Place-based analysis and the Census

• Analysis that is only possible with the Census

Targets to Close the Gap

• To close the gap in life expectancy within a generation;

• To halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade;

• To ensure all Indigenous four-year olds in remote communities have access to early childhood education within five years;

• To halve the gap in reading, writing and numeracy achievements for Indigenous children within a decade;

• To halve the gap for Indigenous students in year 12 equivalent attainment by 2020;

• To halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade.

Measurement • Life expectancy is measured through both census and mortality data

• The under 5 mortality target is measured with mortality data

• The Early childhood access target will be measured by a new

collection being developed by the ABS but Census data will be

important for the denominator

• The reading, writing and numeracy targets are measured with

NAPLAN data

Measurement• The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the

Census is a key source

• The main source for the year 12 or equivalent target is the Census

as the population group – 20-24 year olds is relatively small which

means that survey data has high sampling error

• The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the

Census is a key data source.

Performance Indicators and the NIRA• There are 27 indicators in the NIRA much more than the targets

themselves. Some of these indicators are progress indicators such

as smoking rates while others are proxies.

• For example, while the life expectancy target can only be directly

measured every 5 years – mortality data are available annually

The Census and the NIRA• Of the 27 indicators the census is the main source for 3

- Year 12 attainment target itself

- The Proportion of Indigenous 18-24 year olds engaged in

full-time employment, education or training at or above

Certificate III

- The proportion of 20-64 year olds with or working toward

post-school qualifications in Cert III or above.

The Census and the NIRA• But estimates of the residential population are denominators for a

total of 11 indicators.

• The Census is clearly critical for monitoring progress against the

COAG targets.

The Census and Small Area data• Much of the focus in Indigenous policy requires data to be split by

remoteness area – options for this can be limited with survey data

• Importance of local baseline studies

- Fahcsia Baseline Community Profiles

- Detailed baseline mapping reports for the 29 RSD communities

The Census and Small Area data• For remote Indigenous communities the Census is a key data

source but at times the undercount can affect data quality.

• Census a key source for local data on employment, educational

attainment, the age structure and provides some useful information

on mobility

• The Census compliments other administrative data including

hospitalisation data, school attendance data and NAPLAN data

• Without the Census community profiles would be very limited

The Census is critical for time seriesanalysis

• The Census is the only real source for long-term time series

analysis as the surveys do not go back far enough.

• For much analysis you need time series data.

• Often trends are only evident over long periods

• The term baseline can use to confusion

Urbanisation• The proportion of the Indigenous population in population of

centres of 1,000 or more has changed massively in the last 40

years

• In 1971 just over 44% of the Indigenous population lived in

population centres of 1000, or more people

• By 2006 this proportion stood at 76% Note these data should not

be conflated with data on remoteness area

% of the Indigenous Population in Urban areas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Why has this happened?• Internal migration

• An increasing propensity over time to identify as Indigenous

• The so called ‘error of closure’ accounted for 50% of population growth

between 1991 and 1996 and 31% between 1996 and 2001 much of this is

concentrated in urban areas

• For the period 2001 to 2006 the error of closure was small

• You cannot understand Indigenous demography without understanding

intermarriage patterns.

• Births to non Indigenous mothers are important

Employment Rate, Age 15-64, 1971 to 2006

64.3%65.8% 65.8%

64.3% 64.9% 66.2%68.0%

71.7%

45.2%42.6%

37.3%34.3%

38.6%

42.5% 43.2%

48.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

non-IndigenousIndigenous

Indigenous Employment Rates, by Sex, 15-64, 1971 to 2006

66.2%

59.0%

49.0%

44.0%46.6%

49.9%48.5%

53.0%

24.0%26.3% 26.0% 25.2%

30.9%

35.7%38.3%

43.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

MaleFemale

Pattern more stark if CDEP Excluded Indigenous employment rate by sex

66.2%

59.0%

49.0%

44.0%46.6%

41.7%38.9%

46.1%

24.0%26.3% 26.0% 25.2%

30.9% 31.1%32.4%

39.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

MaleFemaleCDEP Excluded, 1996,

2001, 2006

The Employment Gap is low at high education levels, 2006

Census Data

Employment Rate, 15-64

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Noeducationalattainment

Year 8 orbelow

Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Certificate 1and 2

Certificate III& IV

Diploma BachelorDegree Level,

GraduateDegree and

above

IndigenousNon Indigenous

Proportion of Indigenous and Non Indigenous Males with Post-School Qualifications, 1971 to 2006, Age 20-64

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

IndigenousNon Indigenous

Employment Rate, Age 20-64, Males who left School at 14

or Younger

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

NonIndigenous

Indigenous

Remoteness area• 75% of the Indigenous population is in non remote areas

• But ‘gaps’ usually considerably wider in remote areas

• Collectively inner and outer regional areas are more important

than the major cities

• People conflate remoteness with discrete communities

Indigenous employment rates, age 15-64 by remoteness area, with and without CDEP, 2006

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Major Cities of Australia Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia

With CDEPWithout CDEP

Highest level of Educational Attainment Year 9 or below

by Remoteness Area, Indigenous adults (20-64), 2006

19.2%

24.9% 25.5%

35.0%

49.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Major Cities of Australia Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia -

Indigenous male employment rates, 15-641981 and 2006, CDEP counted as

employment

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Major Cities of Australia Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia

19812006

Indigenous male employment rates, 15-641981 and 2006, CDEP not counted as employment

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Major Cities of Australia Inner Regional Australia Outer Regional Australia Remote Australia Very Remote Australia

19812006

Conclusion• Census a key source for the NIRA and the COAG targets

• Census critical for place-based analysis

• Census allows time series analysis back to 1971

• Census has some other advantages over surveys – for example

the inclusion of people in non private dwellings

• Surveys complement the Census – we need both