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Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart? Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart?

California’s RegionsCalifornia’s Regions

Hans JohnsonHans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California

johnson@ppic.orgjohnson@ppic.org

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OutlineOutline

The California ContextThe California Context

Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends

Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population

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California Population 1900-2000California Population 1900-2000(in thousands)(in thousands)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance

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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

United States

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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

Mexico

United States

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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

Mexico

California

United States

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California Population by Race/EthnicityCalifornia Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-20001970-2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000

White Hispanic Asian/Other African American Mulitracial

Source: United States Census Bureau

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Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

California

United States

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Latin America is the Latin America is the Leading Source of ImmigrantsLeading Source of Immigrants

Latin America 4,697,000 (55%)

Asia 2,915,000 (34%)

Europe 655,000 ( 8%)

Northern America 129,000

Africa 107,000

Oceania 68,000

Source: 2000 Census Supplemental Survey

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Immigrants Come to California Immigrants Come to California from Dozens of Countriesfrom Dozens of Countries

MEXICO PHILIPPINES VIETNAM EL SALVADOR CHINA

INDIA GUATEMALA TAIWAN CANADA KOREA

IRAN JAPAN GERMANY HONG KONG ENGLAND

SOUTH KOREA PAKISTAN NICARAGUA HONDURAS THAILAND

LAOS ARMENIA RUSSIA CAMBODIA FRANCE

PERU UKRAINE BRAZIL U.K. AUSTRALIA

ARGENTINA MYANMAR CUBA IRAQ ITALY

ROMANIA COLOMBIA INDONESIA PORTUGAL EGYPT

TURKEY LEBANON ISRAEL NIGERIA POLAND

GREECE SCOTLAND SOUTH AFRICA NETHERLANDS COSTA RICA

IRELAND JAMAICA BOSNIA & H. SPAIN BOLIVIA

ETHIOPIA PANAMA BELIZE SWEDEN SYRIA

ECUADOR CZECH REP. HUNGARY BELARUS CHILE

JORDAN FIJI AFGHANISTAN

Source: 2000 Census Supplementary Survey

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Source of Growth has ChangedSource of Growth has ChangedAnnual Population Change 1950-2000Annual Population Change 1950-2000 (in thousands)(in thousands)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

NET MIGRATION

NATURAL INCREASE

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Net Migration to CaliforniaNet Migration to California1970-1999 1970-1999 (in thousands)(in thousands)

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

International

Domestic

Source: California Department of Finance, unofficial estimates to 1980; Public Policy Institute of California 1980-1993; DOF 1993-1999 with CB for international migration

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Domestic Migration is Determined by Domestic Migration is Determined by Economic ConditionsEconomic Conditions

Unemployment Rate Differences and Net Domestic Migration Follow the Same Pattern

(3.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

U.S

. min

us

Ca

lifo

rnia

un

em

plo

yme

nt r

ate

s

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

Ne

t do

me

stic

mig

ratio

n (

tho

usa

nd

s)

Unemployment rate in rest ofU.S. less Californiaunemployment rate (left scale)Net domestic migration (inthousands, right scale)

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Projections for California Diverge WidelyProjections for California Diverge Widely

25,000

Total population projections for California

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

DOF 98

CB Preferred

CB Alternative

BEA

UCLA

CCSCE Medium

CCSCE High

CCSCE LowPopulation(000)

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OutlineOutline

The California ContextThe California Context

Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends

Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population

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Defining California Regions:Geographic Building Blocks

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1981

1983 2003?

Changing Regional Definitions: The Bay Area

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Defining California’s Regions:

California in Two

Coastal California

Inland California

Southern California

Central and NorthernCalifornia

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Bay Area

CentralCoast

South Coast

San Diego

Far North

Sacramento Metro

Inland Empire

San Joaquin Valley

Sierras

Regional Definitions: California Divided by NineRegional Definitions: California Divided by Nine

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The View from San FranciscoThe View from San Francisco

The City

the hinterlands

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California’s Regions if States:California’s Regions if States:Area and PopulationArea and Population

Area and Population of California’s Regions

Land area 2000 population

Population per square

mile

Area equivalent Population equivalent

South Coast 6,696 13,118,824 1,959 Hawaii Illinois Bay Area 6,923 6,783,760 980 New Jersey Virginia San Joaquin Valley 27,276 3,302,792 121 South Carolina Oregon Inland Empire 27,260 3,254,821 119 West Virginia Connecticut San Diego 8,375 2,956,194 353 Massachussetts Iowa Sacramento Metro 5,094 1,796,857 353 Connecticut New Mexico Central Coast 11,198 1,356,626 121

Maryland and Delaware Idaho

Far North 43,853 1,122,483 26 Pennsylvania Hawaii Sierras 19,286 179,291 9

Vermont and New Hamphsire Guam

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Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:North and South Maintaining SharesNorth and South Maintaining Shares

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Northern andCentral CaliforniaSouthernCalifornia

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Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:Inland Areas Increasing ShareInland Areas Increasing Share

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Inland California

Coastal California

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Relatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsRelatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

State

Far N

orth

Bay A

rea

Centra

l Coa

st

South C

oast

San D

iego

1980-1990

1990-2000

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Relatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsRelatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

State

Sierra

s

Sacra

men

to M

etro

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Inla

nd Em

pire

1980-1990

1990-2000

66%

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Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Coastal RegionsCoastal Regions

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

State FarNorth

BayArea

CentralCoast

SouthCoast

SanDiego

Rat

e p

er t

ho

usa

nd

res

iden

ts

Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration

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Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Inland RegionsInland Regions

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

State

Sierr

as

Sacra

men

to M

etro

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Inla

nd Em

pire

Ra

te p

er

tho

us

an

d r

es

ide

nts

Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration

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Jobs and Population Growth: Jobs and Population Growth: Percent Change 1990-2000Percent Change 1990-2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Inla

nd Em

pire

Sacra

men

to M

etro

San D

iego

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Bay A

rea

Far N

orth

Centra

l Coa

st

Sierr

as

South C

oast

Jobs

Population

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Jobs:Population ImbalanceJobs:Population ImbalanceNew Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000New Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

South C

oast

Sierr

as

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Inla

nd Em

pire

Far N

orth

Centra

l Coa

st

Sacra

men

to M

etro

San D

iego

Bay A

rea

State

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Housing and Population GrowthHousing and Population GrowthPercent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000Percent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Inla

nd Em

pire

Sacra

men

to M

etro

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Sierr

as

San D

iego

Bay A

rea

Centra

l Coa

st

Far N

orth

South C

oast

Housing Units

Population

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Accommodating Population Growth:Accommodating Population Growth:Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units, Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units,

1990-20001990-2000

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

South C

oast

Bay A

rea

Inla

nd Em

pire

Centra

l Coa

st

San D

iego

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Sacra

men

to M

etro

Sierr

as

Far N

orthSta

te

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OutlineOutline

The California ContextThe California Context

Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends

Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population

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Percent Foreign Born, 2000Percent Foreign Born, 2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Sierr

as

Far N

orth

Sacra

men

to M

etro

Inla

nd Em

pire

San J

oaquin

Val

ley

Centra

l Coa

st

San D

iego

Bay A

rea

South C

oast

State

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Poverty Rate by County, 1999

Very High (20+)High (15-19.9)Moderate (10-14.9)Low (<10)

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Per Capita Income RankPer Capita Income Rankof California Metropolitan Areasof California Metropolitan Areas

San Francisco 1San Jose 4Oakland 18Orange County 25Santa Cruz-Watsonville 30

Santa Rosa 32Ventura 58

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria 59Salinas 68San Diego 78Sacramento 92Los Angeles-Long Beach 100Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa 122

Yolo (Davis-Woodland) 124San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 147

Redding 253Riverside-San Bernardino 272

Modesto 280Chico-Paradise 284Stockton-Lodi 285Fresno 298Bakersfield 304Yuba City 305

Visalia-Tulare-Porterville 308Merced 312

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Growing Apart:Growing Apart:Regional Per Capita Income Relative to StateRegional Per Capita Income Relative to State (100 = State PCI)(100 = State PCI)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

Bay Area

South Coast

Central Coast

San Diego

Sacramento Metro

Sierras

Far North

Inland Empire

San Joaquin Valley

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