台灣南部地區地形降雨特性初步研究 台灣極端強降雨與地形之關係...
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國家災害防救科技中心 國家災害防救科技中心 100年天氣分析與預報研討會 李宗融、于宜強 2011 / 9 / 20 台灣南部地區地形降雨特性初步研究 台灣極端強降雨與地形之關係- 以高屏溪流域為例
Transcript of 台灣南部地區地形降雨特性初步研究 台灣極端強降雨與地形之關係...
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100
2011 / 9 / 20
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Natural Disaster Hotspots A Global Risk Analysis (World Bank,2005) 373%
99%
4
- 2011/8/12
Maplecroft 4
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: NCDR
: NCDR
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1992-2010//
93.3/42.2/13.3()13.1/10.7/6.5()14,25,49(5-6)21.2/9.9/2.1()23,23,15
: >
5
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1992-2010112
(>40mm/hr) 11230%
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
120 120.5 121 121.5 122
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
0
1
3
5
7
9
12
15
18
22
26
30
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120 120.5 121 121.5 122
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
0
1
3
5
7
9
12
15
18
22
26
30
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
55
5
10
1015
18
120 120.5 121 121.5
22.5
23
23.5
1
500
1000
1500
2000
3000
-
(I)
)( wrI
0,0,
)/()( max wrrwrr
rrrrwthr
thrthrthr
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1992-2010112 (I)20
Accumulated I factor of Ty cases - KaoPing Basin
94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 1120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10x 106
2009
2005
2008
2010
1996
2005
2004
2007
2001
2006
2007
2008
2008
1992
1994
2008
2006
1992
2003
2000
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::7(40%),8(35%),9(20%),10(5%):(40%),(40%),(20%):3(50%), 2(35%) ,4(10%) ,6(5%)
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23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
600mm/day
600mm/day
20 600
20 600
.
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1)
A
steep
mountain
helps
to
release
the
conditional
or
convective
instability.2)
AtropicalstormordepressionhelpstoinducetheLLJ.
3)
The
LLJ
is
highly
conditionally
(ie
high
CAPE)
and
potentially unstable.
4)
A
quasistationary
synoptic
system
(typhoon
or
stationary front),acts
to
impede
or
slow
the
movement
of
the
convective
systemoverthemountains.
GEet.al(2010)
Linet.al(2001)
(2006)
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120.0 120.5 121.0 121.50
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Lon (o)
Hei
ght (
Km
)
08/05 08/06 08/07 08/08 08/09 08/10 08/110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2009
(mm
/hr)
(C1V30)
08/05 08/06 08/07 08/08 08/09 08/10 08/110100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700280029003000
(mm
)
2009 2009
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120.0 120.5 121.0 121.50
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Lon (o)
Hei
ght (
Km
)
2008
2008
2005
2005
120.0 120.5 121.0 121.50
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Lon (o)
Heigh
t (Km)
120.0 120.5 121.0 121.50
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Lon (o)
Heigh
t (Km)
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Linet.al(2001)
1402mm/day
1018m
1402mm/day
1018m
1003.5mm
/day
1003.5mm
/day
963.5mm
/day
963.5mm
/day
423mm
/day
423mm
/day57.0mm
/day
57.0mm
/day
850hPa 2009 2009
Uq
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event NLLJ(Uinm/s) q(g/kg) Moistureflux[Uq] MaxRainfallrate (m)
2010FANAPI 15.8 15.3 241.6 9 2009MORAKOT 29.9 18.1 539.9 1402 10182008JANGMI 2008SINLAKU 15.9 14.2 226.1 631.5 1637
2008FUNGWONG 22.8 15.8 360.8 534.5 7402008KALMAEGI 16.5 14.0 231.3 629.5 2702007KROSA 19.5 14.1 275.2 502.5 10182007SEPAT 19.5 16.5 321.7 758.5 7402006KAEMI 13.2 15.1 199.5 488.5 16372006BILIS 20.7 16.7 345.2 718 7402005TALIM 19.5 15.3 299.0 686.5 1637
2005HAITANG 22.7 16.5 375.2 1010 10182004MINDULLE 20.2 16.2 328.2 730 10182003MORAKOT 5.6 15.4 85.6 295 562001TORAJI 16.1 14.1 226.2 694 17812000BILIS 11.3 15.7 177.0 430 740
10_
09_
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49%
1992-2010112
20 7(40%)8(35%)(40%)
(40%)3(50%) 2(35%)
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1.2./
(LLJ)
Moisture Flux (Uq)
()
-
-Moisture Flux(Uq)
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The end Thank you
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