CEEDS Phase 3: Energy Saving Potential in Urban Passenger Transportation 5 March, 2012
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Transcript of CEEDS Phase 3: Energy Saving Potential in Urban Passenger Transportation 5 March, 2012
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CEEDS Phase 3: Energy Saving Potential in Urban Passenger Transportation
5 March, 2012
Ralph D. Samuelson
APERC Workshop, Kuala Lumpur
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APEC’s Urban Population is Expected to Increase Dramatically
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(million people) 2010 2035 2050
Total APEC Urban Population
1,531 2,107 2,313
% Change from 2010 +38% +51%
Total APEC Non-OECD Urban Population
868 1324 1492
% Change from 2010 +53% +72%
Total APEC Non-OCED + Mexico and ChileUrban Population
969 1,451 1,624
% Change from 2010 +50% +68%
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• The consequences are likely to include growing oil security and oil price risks, traffic congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions
• Under business-as-usual, by 2035 we expect road transport energy use to increase 250% in the participating CEEDs developing economies of China, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia
Growing Cities + Growing Wealth = Growing Urban Transport Energy Use
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• Diversity (land-use mix, jobs-housing balance)
• Design (street connectedness, pedestrian/bicycle friendliness)
• Transport Infrastructure (transit vs. motorway investment, parking)
Urban Design Influences Transport Energy Use In A Number of Ways
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• In general, more compact cities (those with a higher population density) tend to have lower energy use than less dense ‘sprawling’ cities
– Direct effect: compact cities have shorter travel distances; and
– Indirect effect: compact cities tend to have more of the low-energy design characteristics discussed above
– Reverse effect: cities with the low-energy design characteristics discussed above tend to develop in a more compact way
Urban Population Density As an Energy Efficiency Indicator
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Urban Design Has Dramatic Impact on Urban Transport Energy Use
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• Our goal here is to roughly estimate the potential contribution of urban design to energy saving
• We are not too concerned with exactly what design features drive this
• We ask, ‘What if cities in developing economies grow to be like the more compact cities in the developed world, rather than like the more sprawling cities in the developed world?’
• Note that we are not claiming that population density alone is the cause of low-energy urban design
Our Methodology
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Declining Trend in Urban Density
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• World Bank density assessment of 120 cities globally diverse cities
• Satellite imaging captured at two discrete times 10 years apart
• Conclusion: urban density has been declining on average 1.7% per year
• Higher decline rates noticeable in developed cities
General Density Trends
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History of Rapid Density Decline in Major CEEDS Cities
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Urban Metropolitan
1995 Actual
[ppl/ha]
2010 Estimate [ppl/ha]
2010 Actual
[ppl/ha]
Annual Decline in
Urban Density
Bangkok, Thailand
139 107 39 8.1%
Manilla, Philippines
206 160 147 2.3%
Jakarta, Indonesia
150 116 79 4.2%
Mexico City, Mexico
107 83 97 0.7%
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
356 269 92 8.6%
Guangzhou, China
119 92 56 4.9%
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• Business-as-Usual (BAU) - Density declines at the global average of 1.7% per annum from 2010 data
• Alternative – Density remains constant from 2008
Two Scenarios Considered
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Fuel Use Projection – Bangkok, Thailand
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Fuel Use Projection – Guangzhou, China
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Fuel Use Projection – Manila, Philippines
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Alternative constant density
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Fuel Use Projection – Jakarta, Indonesia
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Fuel Use Projection – Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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• How cities are designed will strongly impact the patterns of urban transport and transport energy use
• Business-as-usual is likely to lead to sprawling cities with high energy demand
• Our analysis suggests the potential energy savings from better urban design in the 5 CEEDS participating economy cities examined ranges from 20-50% by 2050 compared to business-as-usual
Conclusions
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• How these growing cities are designed will strongly impact the patterns of urban transport and transport energy use
• But once the cities are built, these patterns become very hard to change
• Given the rapid urban growth expected in the APEC region, a unique window of opportunity exists for a long-term reduction in APEC’s energy demand
Time for Action is Now!
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Thank you for your kind attention
http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/
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