Cedema Conference Presentation by Myron Chin 2011-11-24

8/10/2019 Cedema Conference Presentation by Myron Chin 2011-11-24

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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL(GEM) A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE

RISK REDUCTION IN THE CARIBBEAN

A presentation byDr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETTGEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN

SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI

at the

6th CARIBBEAN CONFERENCE ON CDM

5th- 9th DEC. 2011

Copyright Myron Chin 2011


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SUMMARY OF

PRESENTATION- INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN

- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE

DONE BY RECENT EARTHQUAKES

- LAUNCH OF GEM IN THE CARIBBEAN

- REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)

- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs

- ACTIVE FAULTS CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T

- BUILDING INVENTORY

- CONCLUDING REMARKS


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INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

The entire Caribbean Basin is prone tosocio-natural and man-made disasters

ECLAC estimates that the disasterimpact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/year

A number of national, regional (ODPM,

CDEMA, APRM, ACS) and internationalorganizations (PAHO, OAS) arecurrently working in this area.

Now we have GEM


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Caribbean Natural HazardsGeological:

Earthquakes

Volcanic activity Tsunamis

Landslides

Meteorological:

Hurricanes

Storm surge and wave action

Torrential rains


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Caribbean plate (after Weber)

Tobago


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Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)

Ca-SA: 20 mm/yr


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El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes

(6.8)

Mendoza (2000)


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Perez et al. 2001

VENEZUELA

NA

SF

PF

0 mm/a20

MF

san

a

VENEZUELA

NA

FS

FP

20 mm/yr

FM

-68

sana

CANOA

sana

MAR CARIBE

17

N

-58-74 W

6


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MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND

TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)


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TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02(After Joan Latchman)


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12


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Justification for Concern about

Natural Hazards

( As stated by Tony Gibbs)

Rising insurance premiums Vulnerable tourism facilities

Special concerns of small island

states Destructive recent Hurricanes and

Earthquakes


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SOME EXAMPLES OF

EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE INTHE CARIBBEAN REGION

-TOBAGO EARTHQUAKES 1997-04-02 &22-MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1

-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21

-MAGNITUDE 6.0

-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12-MAGNITUDE 7.0


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TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF

1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -1 DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE

OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre

(Photos courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -2-

DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth Methodist ChurchRecreational Centre(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -3-


Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and Corners

Collapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -4-


Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE

HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12 (7.0 MAG.)

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSEHAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12



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TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNSHAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12

(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)


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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)

A collaborative effort devised and launched by

OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at

engaging the global community in the design,development and deployment of uniform open

standards and tools for earthquake risk

assessment worldwide


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PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

10 countries

have adhered so

far

discussions and

negotiations are ongoing

with 15+ others

7 private organisations have

partnered up with GEM so far

they contribute

13.6 M Euro

the OECD, World Bank, UNESCO,

UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associate

participants


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FIRST PRODUCTS

OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to

compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source

project, available for download from http://openquake.org.

What is ?


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ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

IN BRINGING ACTIVITIES OF VARIOUS

COMPONENTS TOGETHER


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GEM Brochure

Available from website and hard-copy

Bi-monthly e-Newsletter

Sign-up at website

STAY UPDATED

GEM Report 2009/2010 v2Available from website and hard-copy

GEM WebsiteMost update source of information

News, results, calls,

www.globalquakemodel.org


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

PROGRAMME-The development of Regional Programmes (RPs) isthe main mechanism through which the GEM toolswill be transferred with a view to creating a uniformglobally used standard. The RPs involve localexperts using GEM software and tools, who generatelocal data and validate the data and standards thatare being created on the global level.

-The Institution of Structural Engineers (CaribbeanDivision) hosted a presentationof the GEM project at the Normandie Hotel inTrinidad on 15 October 2010.


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

REGIONAL PROGRAMME (Conted)-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafterreferred to as GEM) engaged The Seismic ResearchCentre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies,St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in the

Caribbean. Funding became available in March2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager,Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, incollaboration with all players/stakeholders from the

Caribbean community, spearhead theimplementation of the GEM initiative in the InsularCaribbean and the effective functioning of the GEMRegional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean


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HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY

WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO

LAUNCH GEM REGIONALPROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN

-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,

TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION

- PRESENTATIONS BY DRS. RUI PINHO,MARCO PAGANI

AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND

TWENTY OTHERS

-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS

FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES

- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:

http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91


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HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM

OPENS GEM WORKSHOP


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PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO

SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM


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PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO

PAGANI GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR

HAZARD


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PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN

CROWLEY GEM COORDINATOR

FOR RISK


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GEM WORKSHOP 2-4 MAY 2011

GROUP PHOTOGRAPH


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GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS

HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Dr. Wal t er

Sal azar (Co-opt ed on 2011-05-19)

Group 1: Active FaultsProject Leader: Rafi Ahmed (MONA GEOINFORMATICS UWI MONA, JAMAICA)Participants:Franck Audemard y Luz Rodrguez (FUNVISIS, Venezuela)Lyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica),

Wayne Adams (Consultant Jamaica)Barbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica)Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, TrinidadEnrique Arango, CENAIS, MexicoKrishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad


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(2001, 2002)

(2001)

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)

Prentice et al. 2010


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CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)


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Holocene

FAULT

2002 Trench 9

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS (Conted)

RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron ChinGroup 5: Exposure

Leaders of Sub-Groups:

Building Codes: Carlos Buron

Critical Facilities: Wayne AdamsRetrofitting: Didier Deris

Expert Judgement: Anthony Farrell

Building Inventory: Kevin Granger

Members: Jacob Opadeyi, Jan Vermeiren, Cassandra LaBarrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on

2011-05-12)

Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, Trinidad

Members:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups


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DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)


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Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk

Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI

in Jamaica.

Main Sponsor: World Bank

Completion Date: December 2011.

DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)


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OBJECTIVES

To develop a methodology for seismic risk

assessment in the Caribbean for three pilot

States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.

To provide guidelines and open-source

software for the estimation of earthquakeloss using available socio-economic data.


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Project Components Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of

PGA and spectral ordinates for 0.2s and 1.0s

For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismichazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project

(SRC/EUCENTRE). Development/Adapted Fragility Curves

Modification, testing and validation of ELEsoftware

Determination of data requirements and collectionof geo-referenced data

Risk evaluation


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VULNERABILITY ANDBUILDING STOCK


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Precast houses

Reinforced concreteapartments

Reinforced concrete

buildings on slopes

Masonry Houses

Modern Reinforced ConcreteBuilding at New Kingston

Wooden house

SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston

Historical Buildings


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DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES

FOR pre-cast houses

Connections between panels areeffected by welding togethermatching metal angle sectionsembedded in the edge ribs of thepanels.

Heavy roof


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FUTURE WORK

GEM collaboration:

- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with

the OpenQuake software development.- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC will be

spending two months at the GEM Headquarters from end

August to end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake

and to analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk

Atlas Project in order to assess its applicability to theCaribbean Region.


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Project objectives1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping with

GEM Standards.

Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by

employees or contracted labour, to arelatively undefined, large group of people or

community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipedia

definition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up

the crowd into two categories.

The Bounded Crowd will be those participators who will not have any specific experiencein structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These

participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEM

Taxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will

also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff),

engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists.

The Unbounded Crowd will therefore be those participators who will have had sufficientexperience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level

2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural

information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer.

Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see

www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble

rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING

INVENTORY LEADER KEVIN GRANGER


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS (Conted)Group 6: VulnerabilityTentative Leader: Dr. R. Clarke

Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel

Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWI

Leader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs

-Effectiveness of Compliance MechanismsMembers: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren

Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)-OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Myron Chin

Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren

-Disaster Financing:

Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, FernandoGuasch, CENAIS, Cuba

- Valuationreal estate

Leader of Sub-Group: Stacey Edwards ( Co-opted by M. Chin)

- Education and Outreach

- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba


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CONCLUDINGREMARKS

In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the

following remarks-

-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCESOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

WORLDWIDE BY INVOLVING EXPERTS AND PROFESSIONALS FROM ALL REGIONS OF

THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD

-GEM IS NOT A VEHICLE TO CARRY OUT THE WORK OF MAJORINSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES

- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE

RISK REDUCTION PROFESSIONALS FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION TO WORK

TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THAT

EARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE

CARIBBEAN.


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Cedema Conference Presentation by Myron Chin 2011-11-24

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