Cebu Climatechange 090305214828 Phpapp02

7/27/2019 Cebu Climatechange 090305214828 Phpapp02

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/cebu-climatechange-090305214828-phpapp02 1/27

Forum and Workshop on Renewable Energy Responding to theChallenges of Climate ChangeWaterfront Hotel, Lahug, Cebu CityMarch 6, 2009

Dr. Giovanni Tapang

Philippine Climate Watch Alliance



Climate changeClimate change

Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses gasesreleases of greenhouses gases

Projections of Surface Temperature ChangeProjections of Surface Temperature Change



Adverse Impacts Adverse Impacts●

Agriculture Agriculture● Productivity in tropics/subtropics; food shortageProductivity in tropics/subtropics; food shortage

● Water ResourcesWater Resources● Water availability + quality; floods and droughts;Water availability + quality; floods and droughts;

hydropower sourceshydropower sources● People's HealthPeople's Health

● Vector and water borne disease, heat stress,Vector and water borne disease, heat stress,nutrition, EWE deathsnutrition, EWE deaths

● Coastal Areas and FisheriesCoastal Areas and Fisheries● Species and Natural AreasSpecies and Natural Areas● Biodiversity lossBiodiversity loss

● Forest cover lossForest cover loss● Human DisplacementHuman Displacement



Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005

Hurricanes/TyphoonsHurricanes/Typhoons(Category 4/5)(Category 4/5)



Developing countries are mostDeveloping countries are most

vulnerablevulnerableImpacts are worseImpacts are worse

− Low capacity to adaptLow capacity to adapt− Lack of financial,Lack of financial,

institutional andinstitutional andtechnological capacity andtechnological capacity andaccess to knowledgeaccess to knowledge

Impact disproportionatelyImpact disproportionately

upon the poorest countries and the poorestupon the poorest countries and the poorestpersons within countriespersons within countries

− Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequateExacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequatefood, clean water and other resources.food, clean water and other resources.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

P e r c e n

t a g e a

f f e c

t e d

LDCDev'ingCITDev'ed



The poor face greatest challengesThe poor face greatest challenges

from climate changefrom climate change

2 billion people in2 billion people in

developing countriesdeveloping countriesaffected by climateaffected by climaterelated disaster inrelated disaster inthe 1990s.the 1990s.

The rate hasThe rate hasdoubled this decade.doubled this decade.

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

N u m

b e r a f f e c

t e d ( M i l l i o n s

)

Dev'edCIT

Dev'ingLDC



Asymmetric responsibility and Asymmetric responsibility andvulnerabilityvulnerability

Inverse relationship betweenInverse relationship betweenclimate change vulnerabilityclimate change vulnerabilityand responsibilityand responsibility

Primary emitter countries mustPrimary emitter countries mustchange their productionchange their productionactivities and consumption of activities and consumption of energy and seek sustainableenergy and seek sustainablesolutions.solutions.

Basic human needs, economicBasic human needs, economicand social development needand social development needadequate energy andadequate energy andinfrastructure.infrastructure.



Coastal systems and low-lying areasCoastal systems and low-lying areas ( ( IPCC-AR4, 2007)IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● All All coastal ecosystems are vulnerablecoastal ecos ystems are vulnerable

to climate change and sea level riseto climate change and sea level rise● Increases in sea surface temperature of Increases in sea surface temperature of

about 1 to 3°C - more frequent coralabout 1 to 3°C - more frequent coralbleaching events and widespread mortalitybleaching events and widespread mortality

● Coastal wetlandsCoastal wetlands including saltincluding saltmarshes and mangroves are projectedmarshes and mangroves are projected

to beto be negatively affectedne gatively affected by sea-levelby sea-levelriserise

● Many millions more people are projected toMany millions more people are projected tobe flooded every year due to sea-level risebe flooded every year due to sea-level riseby the 2080s in densely-populated and low-by the 2080s in densely-populated and low-lying areas, such as the mega-deltas of Asialying areas, such as the mega-deltas of Asia

and Africa and small islands.and Africa and small islands.

●

Fisherfolk● Coastal communities● Small islands



Industry, Settlement and SocietyIndustry, Settlement and Society (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● The most vulnerable The most vulnerableindustries, settlementsindustries, settlementsand societiesand societies are generallyare generallythose inthose in coastal and rivercoastal and riverflood plainsflood plains , in areas prone, in areas prone

to extreme weather events,to extreme weather events,especially whereespecially where rapidra pidurbanizationurbanization is occurring.is occurring.

● Poor communities can bePoor communities can be

especially vulnerable, inespecially vulnerable, inparticular thoseparticular thoseconcentrated in high-riskconcentrated in high-riskareas.areas.

● Urban poor communities



People's HealthPeople's Health (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● Projected climate change-related exposures areProjected climate change-related exposures are

likely to affect the health status of millions of likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptivepeople, particularly those with low adaptivecapacity, through:capacity, through:

● increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, withincreases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, withimplications for child growth and development;implications for child growth and development;

● increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves,increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves,floods, storms, fires and droughts;floods, storms, fires and droughts;

● the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; alteredthe increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; alteredspatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.

● risk of dengue increases to 3.5 billion people, by 2085,risk of dengue increases to 3.5 billion people, by 2085,worldwideworldwide



Regional: Small IslandsRegional: Small Islands (IPCC-AR4, 2007)(IPCC-AR4, 2007)

● Small islands are especially vulnerable toSmall islands are especially vulnerable to

the effects of climate change, sea level risethe effects of climate change, sea level riseand extreme events:and extreme events:

● Deterioration in coastal conditions (erosion of Deterioration in coastal conditions (erosion of beaches and coral bleaching), is expected tobeaches and coral bleaching), is expected toaffect fisheries, tourism, etcaffect fisheries, tourism, etc

● Storm surge, coastal inundation, erosion, etc.Storm surge, coastal inundation, erosion, etc.to be exacerbated by sea-level riseto be exacerbated by sea-level rise

● Reduced water resources in many smallReduced water resources in many smallislands, by mid-century (insufficient to meetislands, by mid-century (insufficient to meet

demand during low rainfall periods)demand during low rainfall periods)



Vulnerability of the Philippines to Climate ChangeVulnerability of the Philippines to Climate Change

● Increasing trends inIncreasing trends intemperature, sea level rise,temperature, sea level rise,etc, are consistent with theetc, are consistent with the

global trends.global trends.

● Recent extreme events onRecent extreme events ontyphoons, floods, drought,typhoons, floods, drought,

flash floods, landslidesflash floods, landslides(Albay, South- ern Leyte,(Albay, South- ern Leyte,Ormoc, etc)Ormoc, etc)

Strong signals: start of climate change process already evident in the country

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THEPHILIPPINES

y = 0.0143x - 0.206

-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 YEAR

T E M P E R A T U R E A N O M A L Y

Source: CAB/PAGASA

From Dr. Amadore's Slides




• Disastrous extremeDisastrous extremeweather events (strongweather events (strongtyphoons, heavytyphoons, heavyprecipitations,precipitations,droughts, etc) aredroughts, etc) areoccurring more oftenoccurring more often

• Sea level rise willSea level rise willadversely affect manyadversely affect manycoastal communitiescoastal communities

● ectors ystemsec ors ys emsmost vulnerable tomost vulnerable toclimate changeclimate change

- Agriculture and food- Agriculture and food

securitysecurity- Water resources- Water resources- Coastal and marine- Coastal and marineresourcesresources

- Health and human- Health and humansettlementssettlements




• Agriculture and foodAgriculture and foodsecurity aresecurity areadversely affected byadversely affected byextreme weather extreme weather eventsevents

● Increases in water-Increases in water-borne diseasesborne diseases(dengue fever,(dengue fever,malaria, cholera) -malaria, cholera) -

associated withassociated withextremes of rainfallextremes of rainfall(droughts and(droughts andfloods)floods)


Percent of Typhoon damage to GDP & Agric.




Effect of Sea Warming on Coastal (Marine) ResourcesEffect of Sea Warming on Coastal (Marine) Resources

• The diversity of coralsThe diversity of coralscould be affectedcould be affected with thewith thebranching corals (e.g., staghorn coral)branching corals (e.g., staghorn coral)decreasing or becoming locally extinctdecreasing or becoming locally extinctand the massive corals (e.g., brainand the massive corals (e.g., braincorals) increasingcorals) increasing (WGII TAR, 2001)(WGII TAR, 2001)

• Massive coral bleachingMassive coral bleachingin various reefs through-in various reefs through-out the Philippinesout the Philippinesduring the severe 1997-during the severe 1997-98 ENSO episode98 ENSO episode (Arceo, H.O.(Arceo, H.O.et al., 2001)et al., 2001)

• Fish kills and highFish kills and highmortality of culturedmortality of culturedgiant clams, severe redgiant clams, severe red

tide outbreaks aftertide outbreaks afterstrong El Niño periods.strong El Niño periods. The worst incidence of red tide in Manila The worst incidence of red tide in ManilaBay occurred in 1992, another El NiñoBay occurred in 1992, another El Niñoperiod.period.




Philippines’ Response to Address ClimatePhilippines’ Response to Address ClimateChangeChange

Created theCreated the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate ChangeInter-A gency Committee on Climate Change(IACCC)(IACCC) in May 1991in May 1991

Signed the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it onSigned the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it on August 2, 1994 August 2, 1994

Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it onSigned the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it onNovember 20, 2003November 20, 2003

Designated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM onDesignated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM onJune 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320June 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320

Issued DENR Adm. Order 2005-17 last August 2005 on theIssued DENR Adm. Order 2005-17 last August 2005 on the

Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E.O. 320Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E.O. 320Presidential Administrative Order No. 171 Signed by 20Presidential Administrative Order No. 171 Signed by 20February 2007,February 2007, Presidential Task Force on Climate ChangePresidential Task Force on Climate Chan geIn the Senate, proposals for aIn the Senate, proposals for a Climate Change CommissionClimate Chan ge Commission(by the ad-hoc Committee on Climate Change)(by the ad-hoc Committee on Climate Change)



The Inter-Agency Committee on Climate ChangeThe Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change(IACCC)(IACCC)

Created by virtue of Presidential A.O. 220 on May 8, 1991Created by virtue of Presidential A.O. 220 on May 8, 1991Composed of government agencies and NGO representativesComposed of government agencies and NGO representativesChaired by the Secretary of the DENR, and co-chaired by the SecretaryChaired by the Secretary of the DENR, and co-chaired by the Secretaryof the DOSTof the DOSTEMB – acts as IACCC SecretariatEMB – acts as IACCC Secretariat

Functions of the IACCCFunctions of the IACCCCoordinate, develop, and monitor implementation of various climateCoordinate, develop, and monitor implementation of various climatechange related activities.change related activities.Coordinate representation(s) and formulated the Philippine position(s)Coordinate representation(s) and formulated the Philippine position(s)to international negotiations, conferences, and meetings on climateto international negotiations, conferences, and meetings on climatechangechangeFormulate and recommend climate change related policies and actionsFormulate and recommend climate change related policies and actionsServe as technical committee for the review and evaluation of projectServe as technical committee for the review and evaluation of projectproposals for GEF funding.proposals for GEF funding.



Registered Projects by Host Party

1. 360: India2. 289: China3. 146: Brazil4. 107: Mexico5. 33: Malaysia6. 26: Chile7. 20: RP 1.67% of

TOTAL: 1,197



Multiple and fragmented responseMultiple and fragmented response●

Multiple and fragmented responseMultiple and fragmented response● IACCCIACCC● PTFCCPTFCC● CCCCCC

● Implementing CDM projectsImplementing CDM projects● Adaptation measures Adaptation measures● Mitigation measuresMitigation measures

● Renewables (RE Bill)Renewables (RE Bill)● ConservationConservation

● Conflicting policiesConflicting policies



Grand mega-sale of energy resourcesGrand mega-sale of energy resources●

Expected foreign investments energyExpected foreign investments energy● P295 billion in investmentsP295 billion in investments● P177 billion potential investment in theP177 billion potential investment in the

renewable energy sector for 2004-2013renewable energy sector for 2004-2013●

EPIRAEPIRA● IPPsIPPs● SPUGSPUG

● SPEX in MalampayaSPEX in Malampaya●

45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco● 10% to be sold10% to be sold

● Tanon straitTanon strait● BNPP Revival?BNPP Revival?



Copenhagen 2009 and beyond



UNFCCC @ PoznanUNFCCC @ Poznan

● These events drew over 9250 participants,These events drew over 9250 participants,including almost 4000 government officials,including almost 4000 government officials,4500 representatives of UN bodies and4500 representatives of UN bodies andagencies, intergovernmental organizationsagencies, intergovernmental organizationsand nongovernmental organizations, andand nongovernmental organizations, andmore than 800 accredited members of themore than 800 accredited members of the

media. These included around 1,500media. These included around 1,500industry or corporate lobbyistsindustry or corporate lobbyists

K I i COP 15 (C h )



Key Issues in COP 15 (Copenhagen)Key Issues in COP 15 (Copenhagen)Key Issue People’s Agenda Northern Elite Agenda

Mitigation Drastic reductions in GHGemissions, particularly fromadvanced industrializedcountries

Not without bindingcommitments on the part of “large developing countries”

Adaptation/Financing

Rich countries must pay theirecological debt to the poormajority of the world, esp. mostvulnerable communities accdg.to principle of PPP, restorative

justice

Voluntary contributionsaccording to aid framework(donor-recipient relationship);greater reliance on privateinvestments (carbon markets)

Technology Shift to low-carbon economieswith unhampered technologytransfer to developing countries

Encourage private sectorinvestment in “cleantechnologies” (with IPRprotection) + trade &investment liberalization in EGS(c/o WTO)

Deforestation People’s sovereignty &stewardship over naturalresources

Industrial tree plantations ascarbon offsets for carbontrading; biofuels



Towards CopenhagenTowards Copenhagen● National Grassroots ConferenceNational Grassroots Conference

● ManilaManila● April 2009 April 2009● Organized by PCWAOrganized by PCWA

● Other activities (class suit?)Other activities (class suit?)● Asian Grassroots Conference Asian Grassroots Conference

● BangkokBangkok● September 2009September 2009

●

COP+15COP+15● CopenhagenCopenhagen● Replacement to Kyoto?Replacement to Kyoto?● December 2009December 2009

Cebu Climatechange 090305214828 Phpapp02

Documents

Transcript of Cebu Climatechange 090305214828 Phpapp02