CDF IFC MeetingCDF IFC MeetingFermilab, October 30thFermilab, October 30th

Jaco Konigsberg & Rob Roser

The CDF CollaborationThe CDF Collaboration

North America 34 institutions

Europe 20 institutions

Asia 8 institutions

The CDF Collaboration 14 Countries 62 institutions 635 authors

CDF Publication HistoryCDF Publication History• Publications submitted+accepted+published

– ~140 Run 2 publications and ~20 papers submitted but not published– Expect ~40 publications in 2007 – We also have >50 additional papers under internal review !

We are publishing our results as we go !

Some CDF Run 2 Physics HighlightsSome CDF Run 2 Physics Highlights

Observation of Bs-mixing• Δms = 17.77 +- 0.10 (stat) +- 0.07(sys)

Observation of new baryon states• b and b

Observation of new charmless B=>hh states Evidence for Do-Dobar mixing Precision W mass measurement

• Mw = 80.413 GeV (48 MeV) Precision Top mass measurement

• Mtop = 170.5 (2.2) GeV W-width measurement

• 2.032 (.071) GeV WZ observation (6-sigma)

• Measured cross section 5.0 (1.7) pb ZZ evidence

• 3-sigma Single top evidence(3-sigma) with 1.5 fb-1

• Measured cross section = 3.0 (1.2) pb• |Vtb|= 1.02 ± 0.18 (exp.) ± 0.07 (th.)

Significant exclusions/reach on many BSM models Constant improvement in Higgs Sensitivity

CDF Wine and Cheese TalksCDF Wine and Cheese Talks• Since last September:

1. Sept 22: B_s Mixing observation [Christoph Paus]2. October 20: Σb observation [Petar Maksimovic]3. October 25: WZ observation [Elliot Lipeles]4. October 27: B ==>hh observation [Giovanni Punzi]5. November 10: All-hadronic Top [Fabrizio Margaroli]6. December 1: Status of Single Top [Bernd Stelzer]7. January 5: W mass measurement [Ashutosh Kotwal]8. February 2: h==>tau,tau [Anton Anastasov]9. March 23: Heavy long-lived particle searches [Max Goncharov]10. March 30: Small x and Diffractive Physics [Koji Terashi]11. April 20: W-width measurement [Dave Waters] 12. June 8: SM Higgs Search [Ben Kilminster]13. June 15: Observation of Cascade_b [Dmitri Litvintsev]14. June 22: Global Analysis of high-Pt data [Bruce Knuteson]15. August 10: New results for Lepton-Photon [Mark Neuebauer]16. August 24: Boson+jets measurements [Oriol Salto]17. Sept 28: MSSM higgs searches [Tom Wright]

18. Two upcoming dates in December

New results at/since Lepton-Photon 2007New results at/since Lepton-Photon 2007• http://www-cdf.fnal.gov/internal/physics/joint_physics/S07CDFResults.html• Rich program from all Physics Groups~ 50 new results since April '07~ 30 use the full available dataset

New results at Lepton-Photon 2007New results at Lepton-Photon 2007

New results at Lepton-Photon 2007New results at Lepton-Photon 2007

August2006

FY07 Tevatron PerformanceFY07 Tevatron Performance

August2006

A stellar year !

• No major hikes in inst. Lum expected anymore• We can plan and extrapolate

Projected Integrated Luminosity in Run II (fb-1) vs time

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

time since FY04

Inte

gra

ted

Lu

min

osi

ty (

fb-1

)

extrapolatedfrom FY09

Tevatron Luminosity Tevatron Luminosity ProjectionsProjections

FY10

Tevatron LuminosityTevatron Luminosity

Modest Acc. Gains

Significant improvements

To Date 3.2 fb-1 3.2 fb-1

FY08 4.5 fb-1 5.0 fb-1

FY09 5.8 fb-1 6.8 fb-1

FY10 7.1 fb-1 8.1 fb-1

•FY08 will be the first year we will NOT double our luminosity

•Trigger design already comfortably handling the instantaneous lum we expect

•Effort will be to refine - a very different position than what we have had to do in the past…

~3.2 fb-1 delivered

~2.7 fb-1 recorded

Data collectionData collection

• Sources of inefficiency include:– Trigger dead time and readout ~ 5%

• Intentional - to maximize physics to tape - also studies

– Start and end of stores ~5%– Problems (detector, DAQ) ~5%

• Luminosity records:– Highest initial inst. lum

• ~2.92e32 – Integrated lum/week

• 45 pb-1

– Integrated lum/month• 165 pb-1

– Stacking rate• 23.1 mA/hr Great success Stable

~85% recorded since 2003

~80% of delivered lumgoes into analyses

Data-taking efficiency Data-taking efficiency

Good running most of year: • Doubled delivered and acquired

luminosity!• New shift crew arrangements• ISL cooling leak

– 330pb-1 w/ east L00+ISL off

• First 6 months of 2007:– 144pb-1/month delivered– 121pb-1/month acquired– 115pb-1/month w/SVX

• Accel. Performance down in April-June– Took some time after sextapole

changes to get back to good operating point

– Resumed high luminosity just before shutdown

6/06-8/07 Luminosity Efficiency

Delivered 1.67fb-1

Recorded 1.39fb-1 83%

Good Run 1.32fb-1 79%

Good (SVX) 1.27fb-1 76%

Good (ISL/L00) 1.00fb-1 60%

2007 Shutdown Plans2007 Shutdown Plans

• Aug 6 - Oct 15 (10 weeks)• Accelerator complex:

– New Booster correctors - proton plan– New MI collimator - proton plan– New “” power poles– RR maintenance - new DCCT (current measurement)– Tevatron maintenance

• Measured roll of all dipoles and quads (Thanks CDF volunteers!)

• Unrolled D16 quad (finally!)• Warmed 6 houses, replaced 2 dipoles & 2 spools• Replaced F17 kicker

• CDF– Fix ISL cooling leak– General maintenance and repair

Leak in part of the Silicon cooling systemLeak in part of the Silicon cooling system

good badhole

Manifold

Cooling Pipes

ISL/L00 portcard

ring

Where are the ISL/L00 portcards?Where are the ISL/L00 portcards?

Impossible to access from outside, isolated by volume full of cables, ~60cm in z.

Portcard ring

COT face

CablesCooling Pipes

Manifold

Leaks

ISL Cooling RepairISL Cooling RepairKeep the silicon cold and dry: Plastic barrier encloses wire chamber bore, 600cuft volume. Desicant based air drier will provide 300cfm to the volume. Dewpoint

always below –10 C. Cover holes with epoxy from the inside of the pipe using borescopes and catheters.

Repairs performed over a month with 4 people shifts lead by FNAL specialist (“head surgeon”) Ken Schultz.

Hole

o Vacuum tests show that the Al lines are as tight as the stainless steel ones

o Cooling has been running stable for more than a month o Full system is ready for next run

Silicon status & lifetimeSilicon status & lifetimeSilicon Aging Like Fine (Italian, French, Spanish, Californian, Canadian, Japanese, Silicon Aging Like Fine (Italian, French, Spanish, Californian, Canadian, Japanese,

Korean, Taiwanese, Swiss, British, Finish, Russian, German) WineKorean, Taiwanese, Swiss, British, Finish, Russian, German) Wine

Silicon should operate well for the duration of Run 2

Maximum depletion voltage before breakdown(Noise scan) Data (Signal scan)

Central Tracker…Central Tracker…• Aging under control

– See affect of increase in instantaneous luminosity

– Increased O2 in Feb ‘07

COT Gain vs. Time

Jan.2002 Aug.2005

Inner layer

Outer layer

People: SummaryPeople: Summary

• People are migrating to the LHC [and other experiments]

– This is not new, started a long time ago

• We’ve taken many measures to mitigate the impact on the experiment – We have stabilized, streamlined and automated many tasks in operations

and in physics analysis– We spend considerable effort retaining, recruiting and planning ahead

• But very importantly:• Luminosity increase has made a tremendous difference • The experiment is running very well• Very rich and exciting physics program• LHC delays have also made a difference• Many opportunities for people to make a mark here: physics and leadership• The collaboration age profile is ==> young, yet excellent• Try to keep senior people engaged at all levels• We have focused our physics program through Higgs

Enough people to run the experiment in FY09 and accomplish the physics

Summary Table of February Summary Table of February 2007 Resource Survey2007 Resource Survey

CY 2007 2008 2009

US FTE 222 162 127

Non US FTE 170 135 109

TotalUS + Non US

392 297 236

2005 Results 320 -- 178

Post Doc’s 101 73 53

Students 147 102 77

Numbers in Units of FTE

Table represents responses from all 63 institutions

Comparison to 05 Survey…Comparison to 05 Survey…

2007 2009

US FTE (2005) 222 (195) 127 (91)

Non US FTE 2005)

170 (125) 109 (87)

Total (2005) 392 (320) 236 (178)

The delay in LHC turn-on AND the success of the Tevatron Luminosity has resulted in many more FTE’s available for CDF -- a 33% increase from what was projected in 2005

GAP Analysis – 2007 NeedsGAP Analysis – 2007 Needs

CY 07 CY 09

Detector Ops 50 45

Offline * 26 20

Algorithms 32 21

Management 10 10

Total 118 96

Resources Available

392 236

FTE for Physics 392 – 118 = 284

140

* Used 2005 Offline numbers

Postdocs joining CDF last ~1.5 yrs Postdocs joining CDF last ~1.5 yrs

• Examples [many were students at CDF that stayed on CDF]1. Enrique Palencia: Cantabria ==> FNAL2. Fabrizio Margaroli: Bologna ==> Purdue3. Anadi Canepa: Purdue ==> Penn4. Olga Norniella: Barcelona ==> UIUC5. Craig Group: Florida ==> FNAL6. Valentin Necula: Florida ==> Duke7. Nathan Goldschmidt: Wisconsin ==> Florida8. Alison Lister: Geneva ==> UC Davis9. Jen Pursley: Hopkins ==> Wisconsin10. Bo Jayatilaka: Michigan ==> Duke11. Dan Krop ==> U. Chicago12. Shang-Yuu Tsai: Academia Sinica, Taiwan13. Sergo Jindariani: Florida ==> FNAL14. Susan Burke: Arizona ==> FNAL15. Manoj Kumar Jha: Delhi ==> Bologna16. Diego Tonelli: Pisa ==> FNAL17. Hyunsu Lee: Korea ==> U. Chicago18. Tom Schwarz: Michigain ==> UC Davis19. And others…

~ 20 new postdocs

PhD’s from last ~1.5 yrsPhD’s from last ~1.5 yrs• Ch. Dorr Karlsruhe University• K. Gibson CMU• A. Holloway Harvard University• V. Necula University of Florida• M. Rossi University of Udine• S. Sabik University of Toronto• T. Schwarz University of

Michigan• A. CanepaPurdue University• B. Cooper UCL• N. Leonardo MIT• A. Loginov ITEP, Moscow• G. Salamanna University of Roma• P. Catastini University of Pisa• P. Squillacioti University of Pisa• D. Tonelli University of Pisa• I. Vollrath University of Toronto• A. Attal UCLA, • S. Baroiant UCDavis• S. Bolshov MIT• S.-H. Chuang University of

Wisconsin• S. Forrester UC Davis• M. Griffiths University of

Liverpool• C. Group University of Florida• B. Jayatilaka University of

Michigan• J. Kraus University of Illinois

• S. Lai University of Toronto

• M. Soderberg University of Michigan

• T. Akimoto University of Tsukuba

• O. Norniella Barcelona• E. Palencia University of

Cantabria• X. Portell Barcelona• K. Copic University of Michigan• S. Harper Oxford University• J. Lee University of

Rochester• V. Rekovic University of New

Mexico• H. Sun Tufts University• V. Tiwari CMU• B. Mohr UCLA• G. Lungu U. of Florida~ 40 and ~40 more

expected this coming year

Some Physics HighlightsSome Physics Highlights

Jet Cross Section ResultsJet Cross Section Results

8 orders of magnitude !! • Excellent agreement with QCD calculation over 8 orders of magnitude!

• No excess any more at high ET

– Large pdf uncertainties will be constrained by these data

Highest Mass Dijet Event: M=1.4 Highest Mass Dijet Event: M=1.4 TeVTeV

70% of the total energy went into 2 quarks!!!

B baryon DiscoveriesB baryon Discoveries

b

bc

b

Observation of WZ ProductionObservation of WZ Production

electrons muons

+ new lepton types+ more triggers+ better analysis

Prob(background only) < 1.5x10-7 (5.1)

2 MET bins:Prob(background only) < 2 x10-9 (5.9)

(WZ)=5.0+1.8-1.6(stat.+syst.) pb

Increased acceptance by adding plug calorimeter and tracks pointing to cracks: 16 obs vs 3 bcknd

NLO cross section: 3.7 ± 0.1 pb

1st pass: observed 2 events with expected background of 0.9 ± 0.2 and expected signal of 3.7 ± 0.3

3 leptons + MET1.1 fb-1

Same

data

From ~nothing to observation- same data-

Much of this being used in H=> WW

1 fb-1 in March 2006 1 fb-1 in July 2006

Bs-mixing: from evidence to discoveryBs-mixing: from evidence to discovery

8 x 10-8 (> 5) prob. background fluctuation

Significant improvements on same dataset

• Neural Nets for event selection & to combine opposite-side flavor tagging• Better particle ID• Inclusion of partially reconstructed decays• New trigger paths

• + Group focus, the “I can almost taste it” effect

W Mass and WidthW Mass and Width

The Top Cross SectionThe Top Cross Section

• Measured using many different techniques

• Good agreement – between all measurements– Between data and theory

• Data precision starting to challenge theory precision

Top MassTop Mass

1 fb-1

Only new results for summer!

Lepton+Jets: Matrix Element (1.7 fb-1) 172.7 2.1 GeV

New result

Measuring the Properties of the Top Measuring the Properties of the Top QuarkQuark

Decay Lifetime

T’ search

Cross section w/2bW Helicity

M_ttbar XS Event Kinematics

Single Top HistorySingle Top History

First Tevatron Run II result using 162 pb-1

single top < 17.5 pb at 95 % C.L.

2004: Simple analysis while refining Monte Carlo samples and analysis tools 2 years

2006: Established sophisticated analysesCheck robustness in data control samples

2007: 3- evidence for single top quark production using 1.5 fb-1

•Development of powerfulanalysis techniques (Matrix Element, NN, Likelihood Discriminant)•NN Jet-Flavor Separatorto purify sample•Refined background estimates and modeling•Increase acceptance (forward electrons)•10x more data

Phys. Rev. D71 012005

Observed p-value = 0.09% / 3.1Expected p-value = 0.13% / 3.0

Single Top ResultsSingle Top Results

s+t= 3.0 ± 1.2 pb

s= 1.1, t =1.9 pb

s+t= 3.0 ± 1.2 pb

s= 1.1, t =1.9 pb

Expected sensitivity: 2.9Observed significance: 2.7

ExpectedSensitivity

3.0

s+t= 2.7 ± 1.2 pb

s= 1.1, t =1.3 pb

s+t= 2.7 ± 1.2 pb

s= 1.1, t =1.3 pb|Vtb|= 1.02 ± 0.18 (expt) ± 0.07

(theory*)|Vtb|= 1.02 ± 0.18 (expt) ± 0.07

(theory*)*Z. Sullivan, PRD 70 114012 (2004)

Likelihood Method

Matrix Element Method3.1

Evidence

New!

Running through 2010Running through 2010

ConclusionConclusion

• We believe strongly that DOE should plan to run through FY2010

• An early recommendation by P5 would help the planning effort for the lab and collaborations.

Running on 2010Running on 2010

• It is about the possibility of a discovery– The more luminosity the better the chances– True for the Higgs– True for all possible sources of new physics

• The detector will run fine

• The lab is committed to running

• We need your support

Process and peopleProcess and people

• Program driven by intellectual curiosity and the thrill of possibility

• People tend to go after the physics that are accessible to them first– Pragmatic and sociological reasons

• Then they push and innovate

• Especially when they see the possibilities– And things start to come together

• It is engrained in us to want to make progress

• We get creative, adaptive and adoptive and, most importantly: we learn from the data all the time

• One cannot fully lay out a roadmap and know where every measurement or search will end up, given time and more data

• Sqrt(L) is a myth in hadron collider physics, except at the very very end, when there is nothing left to do but to surrender

P5

CDF Higgs EffortCDF Higgs Effort

• Over the last year there’s been a dramatic infusion of people, effort and ideas, aimed at finding the Higgs

• Prior to that it was unclear that we will get sufficient luminosity to have enough reach

• As the luminosity increased we’ve reached other low cross section physics processes: WZ, single-top

• The tools developed for these analyses are recently migrating into the Higgs effort

This is now the priority of the collaboration

P5

CDF alone, in perspective…CDF alone, in perspective…

0.1 fb-1

0.3-1.0 fb-1

1-2 fb-1

1 yrLum+effort

Run 1

P5

Summer 2007 (Lepton-Photon)Summer 2007 (Lepton-Photon)

CDF & D0

@ 115 ~4x SM@ 160 ~2x SM

P5

2007 projections [yellow] 2007 projections [yellow]

• They are based on the following improvements– Some that have already gone into existing Higgs analysis

but need to be propagated across all channels– Some that are based on existing tools that are being used

on other analysis and still need to be propagated on Higgs analysis (i.e. NN tagger & taus)

– Some that come from including data from triggers that have not yet been used in Higgs analysis

• Only includes pieces that have been demonstrated and does not include things that still need more work

• Result in x{1.5 to 2.25} improvement in sensitivityThese are in hand

P5

Ex. of improvements not yet on Higgs Ex. of improvements not yet on Higgs analysesanalyses

Forward trackingM

ista

g r

ate

Tagging Efficiency

Standard secondary vertex

b-tagging

Improved b-tagging Forward b-tagging

BMU muonsImproved Jet E res

Higgs status and projectionsHiggs status and projections

160 GeV

115 GeVSignificant progressfrom 2005 to 2007-At 115 = x1.8 in sensitivity-At 160 = x2.0 in sensitivity

95%

CL

95%

CL

2005 projections long lever arm- large uncertainty -

2007 projections grounded in data

P5

Higgs reach - achievable -Higgs reach - achievable -

With 7 fb-1 • exclude all masses !!! [except real mass]• 3-sigma sensitivity 150:170 LHC’s sweet spot

7.0

With 5.5 fb-1 tougher:• Exclude 140:180 range• 3-sigma in one point: 160

5.5

Analyzed Lum.

We think this is compelling

X2.25

On any given roll of the diceOn any given roll of the dice

“further” @ 115 GeV

7 fb-1 => 70% experiments w/230% experiments w/3

“further” @ 160 GeV

7 fb-1 => 95% experiments w/275% experiments w/ 3

Solid lines = 2.25 improvementDash lines = 1.50 improvement

Analyzed Lum. Analyzed Lum.

It’s not just the HiggsIt’s not just the Higgs

Mtt distribution

Note to self: test these distributionswith as much data as possible !

Same-sign dileptons

b

b

0

Notes on possibilityNotes on possibility

• We already have “fluctuations” in the data

• Which one is from a real new physics source?

• The top discovery experience at CDF:– 19 pb-1 ~3-sigma EVIDENCE with 13 l+j evts, 2 dileptons– 19-40 ~ nothing exciting– 40-67 a lot more… DISCOVERY

• On which third are we today?

• Some existing new physics sources could have not yet revealed themselves yet- and we could still have sufficient # of events for a discovery before the end of Run 2

• Some may already be there

• Who knows for sure today? => we keep “experimenting”

P5

Physics Physics MotivationMotivation

Lab’sLab’splanplan

P5/P5/fundingfunding

Running in 2010 and beyondRunning in 2010 and beyond

LHCLHC Physics Physics MotivationMotivation

Collab/Collab/peoplepeople

SummarySummary• Very exciting and rich physics program

– We impact the field on a regular basis !– Many parts benefit from “as large a dataset as possible”– Higgs search needs that + a large effort

• We have a chance of saying something very important– There is discovery potential -in general- as we gather more data– Improvements are continuously coming into the game

• The CDF detector will operate well through FY10– No problems and no critical vulnerabilities identified

• Collaboration committed through FY09– We analyze & publish as we go: enormous, successful, effort !

• Expects P5’s recommendations on FY10 @ HEPAP end of Nov.

• Lab’s recent commitment to run in FY10 is critical

• We will work with you, and the Lab, to try to make it possible– Not trivial, many forces at work