CCS: silver bullet ? 4 pillars of UK energy policy : or broken bridge? … · 2019-04-27 · 16 Mt...
Transcript of CCS: silver bullet ? 4 pillars of UK energy policy : or broken bridge? … · 2019-04-27 · 16 Mt...
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CCS: silver bullet ?or broken bridge?
www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/
ContextCaptureStorage
Problems
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4 pillars of UK energy policy :Efficiency, Renewables, Nuclear, CCS
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What is CCS ?
90% CO2 reduction on site75% along whole chain
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Fluid deeper than 800m, rapid expansion may cool to ice
CO2 physical states
geotherm
alhydrate
Lo pressure Hi
surface
transport
storage
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CO2 calculated emissions
6 yr trend Faster than the worst IPCC projection
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Ocean is measurably more acid
Half of fossil CO2 emitted isdissolved in the ocean
CO2 + H2O = H+ + HCO3-
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Climate and /or fossil fuel?
Not hereNoHereNOW
World plants by 2020at 450ppm = 54 x 2.4 GW
Do nothing CO2
Sustainable
Fossil fuels will still providemost of world energy to 2050
New plants from 202020/yr coal, 22/yr gas
450 ppm
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Capture
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Twin track approach
CarbonDioxide
Reduction
Increased efficiency,biomass cofiring ,
capture ready powerplant
Carbon Captureand Storage(CCS)
- -
Possible Now
Long Term TimeMedium Term
2012 2020
-23%
Baseline
- 40%
- 95% TRACK 2
TRACK 1
Drivers:
Improve efficiency initially 30 ==> 47% coal (may need boiler refit)
Add Capture by one of three methods - 2009 all equal cost
25% energypenalty ??
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Post-Combustion
boiler
airfuel
CO2
source: Vattenfall
Post-combustion capture
Coal or gas + air ==> CO2 + H2O +N2
Proven at 10% size, not in power plant. Solvent scrub flue gas 2-12%CO2 (amine or ammonia). Needs new boiler & large site, retrofit
possible
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Oxyfuel process
source: Vattenfall
Coal or gas + O2 + flue gas ==> CO2 + H2O
Oxyfuel combustion
N2
ASU
boiler
fuel
CO2
air O2
5 MWe experimental burners; Purify oxygen from air; retrofitburners and upper boiler; water removal => 100% CO2
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Pre-combustion capture (IGCC)Pre-Combustion
CO2
gasifier
ASU
N2
air
GT
source: Vattenfall
Coal or gas + steam ==> CO + H2 ==> CO2 +H2
Experience at 30% scale; Gasify coal, or split methane, can be twosites; Pre-combustion gas cleanup; cheaper separation 32% CO2;
solvent dimethyl ether/methanol SELEXOL (future membrane ?);integrated process ==> hydrogen; large expensive plant
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Capture penaltyNow 4 x 800 MWe3.2 GW for use
With CCS 5 x 800 MWe3.2 GW for use
Capture penalty25% 200912% by 2020 ?
If penalty 25%, 77% reduction
if penalty 12%, 80% reduction
16 Mt CO2 emitted +1.6 Mt 4 Mt CO2 emitted 3.6 Mt CO2 emitted
PC, 90% capture,10% emitted upstream
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Storage
Annual UK power emissions 200 Mt CO2 wouldcover Edinburgh to 60m as gas, to 150mm as liquid
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Regions of storagearound the UK
Scotland power 18 Mt CO2/yrUK power 200 Mt CO2/yr
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Reservoir sandstones
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Storage
CO2 fills microscopicpores in sandstone
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Injection: buoyant, then lateral
Injection
Top seal mudrock
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1 Mt CO2 / yr
Sleipner CO2 re-injection:demonstration size
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Monitoring: seismic reflection
20
0m
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Transport and Europe
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Transport : pipes
USA more than3000 miles onshore
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UK storage very large
mid-range valuesfrom EU FP6GeoCapacity
Uncertainty large: ± 10 x. Need large-scale testing
NorthEU 1.0Gt/yr
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4 UKclusters
CCS clusters & offshore pipesOxyfire test : Renfrew
Test capture ANDstorage, develop chain
?
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Fewlarge, or
manysmall
stores ?
Continentalpipes tooffshore$8 Bn/yrincome?
Haszeldine 2009 Science
MAJOR RISK
Needs REALTESTS
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Acceleration of R&D&D&D
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Prepare now, for large CCS
CCS is not first option, but longrun is cheaperPrepare CCS NOW, for 2020, reduces cost from $800 to $200
CCS by storage ingasfields, aquifers
or EOR
Prepare now, for here
CCS
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World experiments getting bigger
UK first plant by 2014
UK plant 2,3, 4 by 2018
UK commercialplant from 2020
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Funding: Pilot, Rollout
Cost decreaseswith experience
EU-A price increases
EU-ETS not sufficient. Need levy price, or Feed-in, or Mandate, or “ROC” [email protected] King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 30
Extra cost to public
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So far, so good,but
missing steps in the CCS bridge..
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UK Legal and Regulation• International conventions OSPAR !
• International conventions LONDON !
• Owning the porespace, seabed…. !
• European CCS Directive to UK law !
• Onshore H & S , pipes, plant rules !
• Licensing of storage !
• Environmental impacts !
• CCS coal mandate & CCS-Ready !
• Levy for coal AND gas CCS !
• EPS (UK, EU) ?
Needs ratified
underway
underway
underway
Needs ratified
Claim agreed
Transferred
Enacted 300MW
coal output
Payment on coal
(and gas)
Debate
Focus on coal, offshore, ownership and licensing
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Short project, long CO2 storage2010 2020Demo
Accurate baseline ==> firm predictions x 300 duration
7575
Storagepermit
(MemberState
and EC)
Baseline
Explorationpermit
(MemberState)
Monitoring (MemberState) yearly report
Monitoringpost-close
30 year! Bond
Effort in 100yr commitment
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Learn and deploy rates
CCS is projected to be un-precedented rapid growthRequires circulation of information
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EPS and CCS on gas plant
coal
gas
Illustrativetracks
Gas capture needed for transition to low [email protected] King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 36
Public understanding
Public objection to coal &storage - needs more work
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The Aim: Reduce CO2 emissions
IEA: 100 commercial sized power projects by 2020Same again for CCS in industry (cement steel, refine..)
27 Gt /yr
CCS
Now
Scotland power 18 Mt CO2/yr UK power 183 Mt CO2/yr
1 G
t =
1,0
00
,00
0,0
00
to
nn
e
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Projected CCS sites EUSix funded byEERecoveryPackage
Another sixbefore 2015?
Chosen forreadyness
andemploymentNeed to infillto 12 with
othertechnologies
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Gaps still un-solvedPaying: World incentives / policy / price ?CO2 price MUCH too low, needs a base guaranteeConvincing China, (and India), USA
Speed: Learning and Deployment rates are extremely fast
Capture: Reduce capture penalty from 25%, to 10% or 5%
Storage: Volumes, integrity, handover period and liability
Guarantee: Fitting to established and new coal and gas plant
Operation: With variable renewables,
Diversion: Lock-in, Capture by BaU coal or oil lobby
Effectiveness: <75% overall CO2 reduction just a transition
Ensuring that EU, USA, Aus are a start, not a [email protected] King Coal, Royal Soc Chemistry, London 24 March 2010 40
Summary
BaU CO2
by 20302030 CCS +renewables
• Fossil fuel use !"climate
• CCS needed to reduce CO2
• New chain, elements known
• Demonstrations active
• World activity too slow
• CCS is LARGE option
• UK well placed - 2014
• Not yet a global business
• Rapid scale-up “challenging”