CCS and Climate

Do We Need CCS?

• Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends.

• Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon emissions.

• “Clean” energy investments are a fraction of likely needs.

• CCS and biomass as an emergency brake.

U.S. & China Total 43% Of Global Cumulative Emissions 2005-2030

Source: IEA, WEO 2007

Billion Tonnes CO2

512

225

167

57%

18%

25%

China

U.S.

Rest of World

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:

Primary Coal Demand by Region

China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2005 2030 2005 2030

Mto

eTEOther OECDEU27JapanUSOther DCIndiaChina

Power generation Other

Global New Coal Build

0

500

1000

1500

GW

Coa

l

Other Developing 43 90

India 57 135

China 383 363

Transition 5 30

OECD 165 398

2005-2015 2016-2030

Source: IEA,WEO 2006

684

1041

Incremental new coal capacity

New Coal Plant Emissions 26% Greater than All Historic Coal CO2

180143

0

50

100

150

200

1751-2000 Total Coal

New Coal Plants Lifetime Emissions

Billion tonnes Carbon

Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006

34% of remaining budget for 450 ppm

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2006 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075

milli

on to

nnes

of C

O2

Existing power plants Power plants built in 2005-2015

Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario: Power Generation Capacity Additions in China, 2006-2030

Most of the increase in coal demand comes from power generation

7%

0.2%

2%

15%

6%

70%

CoalOilGasNuclearHydroRest of renewables

1 312 GW

NRDC White Paper

• NRDC White Paper—compendium of work by Chinese Academy of Sciences, US Pacific Northwest National Lab,Tsinghua and Princeton Universities, and WRI.

• Available at https://www.nrdc.org/international/chinaccs/default.asp

Chinese Sources & SinksOver 1600 large CO2 point sources

CO2 emissions of 3.9Gt/ year

Power Sector Dominates

But Many Large Industrial Sources

• Nearly 400 high concentration sources

• Nearly 200 million tons CO2 production– 43 Coal to Methanol– 12 Ammonia– 2 Coal to liquid transport fuel

• Capture costs much lower for these sources

Sinks Near Large Sources

Sinks Near Large Sources

• > half of the 1600 large sources directly above potential storage formations

• 80% within 80km of sites• Reduces transport costs. Perhaps

$10/tonne of CO2.

Potential CCS Pilots

• Daqing and Jiling oil fields• Jiangyou gas fields• GreenGen IGCC• Langfang IGCC• Donggaun Taiyangzhou IGCC• Shenua Direct Coal Liquefaction

Needs/Recommendations

• CCS regulatory framework• Direct western involvement in

Chinese CCS demos• Tech transfer and joint R&D• Monitoring and verification• Incentives for CCS as part of low-

carbon portfolio

Carbon “Game” has Different Rules

Unlike economic growth, the carbon budget cannot be expanded indefinitely.

Emitting more carbon than your neighbor is not a recipe for success.

China and U.S. have mutual strategic interest in helping each other to minimize carbon emissions.

Success by one country helps all countries.