CCCW-Chief Scientist Wales -2012-06_27

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Science Strategy

Science for Wales :

Reflections on role of science in communication, innovation, and transition to

low C

Professor John Harries,Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales,

andProfessor of Earth Observation,

Blackett Laboratory,Imperial College,

London

127 June 2012 CCCW_Barri

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Two key themes:

-The role of science in communication and engagement on climate change;

-The role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy.

Contents

1. What has the Welsh Government Science for Wales strategy actually produced? What is the implementation plan, Sêr Cymru?

2. Role of science in climate science communications. and engagement.

3. Role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy.

4. A real example!

1. Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales

Major changes!

2010 saw the first Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales (CSAW), and appointment of the Science Advisory Council for Wales (SACW).

First major task for CSAW, with Council, has been to write new Science Strategy for Wales. Many visits, discussions, consultations, across whole of Wales, over 18 months. Possibly the most thorough review of facts on science in Wales.

SACW fully engaged with some fascinating and penetrating discussions, and strong guidance to the CSAW.

3

Diolch yn fawr!


The new structure, and strategy development

Survey of National Assets:

National Museums, Gardens,Libraries

Survey of UniversityScience

Survey of Companies’R&D

Survey of Welsh

Governmentprocedures

First Minister and Cabinet

Science Advisory Council for Wales

Office of the Chief ScientificAdviser forWales

Community Networks

Survey of third sector

Minister for BETS

Cabinet February, July 2011; stakeholders autumn 2011, Cabinet approval 6 December 2011. FM Launch 12 March 2012.


Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science

• A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class;

• Focus on our strengths and prioritise.

• BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:);

• Increase inward investment (facilities, institutes, research Grants, companies, ...);

• Work with RCs, serve on committees, boards, be involved;

• Vital educational base;

• Need to plan towards innovation and application,because economy, quality jobs are the aim;


The strengths and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science ‘Grand Challenges’ Current strengths Future theme

Life and Health sciences

Medical technology (especially in vitro diagnostics) neuroscience, wound healing, health informatics and human nutrition, crop breeding and food security.

Wales as an advanced health and life sciences country. An innovative, evidence- based health and social care system for Wales, based on an integrated health and social care database, and on an excellent life sciences R&D foundation.

Environment, energy & low carbon

Climate change, environment, crops, forestry and low carbon

Wales as a green laboratory (Wales led the world into fossil fuel, and will lead the world out)

Advanced engineering & materials

From nano- to large-scale, materials and machines

Developing innovations and technology for the 21st century, applied to challenges in environment, aerospace, manufacturing, health and materials.

Education and STEM outreach activity: Enhancing the value, the take-up, and confidence and trust in science for the people of Wales.

Digital economy - e-infrastructure, high performance computing (HPC) programmes and all aspects of digital content

Intellectual Property: ensuring the nation, both public and private, benefits from science investments

Blue skies research: Allowing for new ideas, concepts and theories that will feed future R&D and innovations

27 June 2012 6CCCW_Barri

. What is the implementation plan? Sêr Cymru

Sêr Cymru

Initial fundingFrom WG£50M over 5years.

Augmented by Universities, by WEFO, by others?

Planning, selection, approval, monitoring

Attract international “stars”, provide kit, support staff, in priority areas, to augment existing excellence, provide more leadership

Oversight committee

Set up National Research Networks, with Director, to oversee preparation, negotiation, of bids, through to selection and implementation.

Sêr Cymru named chairs; Prizes; Eminent lectures; links to industry and commerce; national conference....


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2. Role of science in climate science communications and engagement

- Understanding; facts;

- Objectivity: Avoidance of spin or cherry-picking: awkward facts from a piece of work cannot be ignored, while accepting others.

- The Climate system is amazingly , and beautifully complex: represent complex ideas in accessible way; example is of forcing and feedback processes (example);

- Understanding true meaning of error and uncertainty, predictability and chaotic systems (example).

- Combining good physical science with good social science and good policy making.

- STEM engagement;

- Popularisation, but not dumbing-down to triviality

Terrestrial Energy Budget: feedbacks and forcings

S (1 – A) = (1 – g) TS4 + p1 + p2 + …

Feedback loops, eg: hydrological cycle, circulation patterns,cloud cover & type

greenhouseforcing

delayedresponses

Delay due to slow feedback processes: eg. deep ocean warming

SW LW

Measures of the SW, LW and FN (= ) fluxes give information on greenhouse forcing, cloud and water vapour feedback…..i.e. on climate processes and climate change

Other Forcings,eg:Direct increase in A (and smaller increase in g) due to volcano

(S = ITS/4

» 1370/4

= 342 Wm-2)

i

ip Measurement of spectrally resolved radiances can make these relations highly specific to processes 9


3. Role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy.

- Research produces new ideas, processes, techniques, skilled and imaginative people;

- Science must be excellent, and well connected to innovation processes;

- Balance between fundamental science, theory, observation, application to real world, modeling, prediction must be maintained;

- Science and Innovation must feedback on each other;

- In Wales, Science strategy and Innovation Strategy are being produced in close co-operation.

4. A real example!

• Consider the energy balance of planet Earth, recognising that energy is entering and leaving the Earth at all electromagnetic wavelengths.

• Design a spectrometer to fly in space and to measure energy leaving the Earth, at all wavelengths.

• Build it, test it, calibrate it, launch it on a very large can of explosive materials (a rocket), test its working via a complex communications/tracking system, then measure Earth’s heat (IR) spectrum over many years.

• Compare well-calibrated spectra in 1970 with spectra for same place, local time, season, say in 1997.

• Is there a difference? If climate is changing there must be!

Measurements of observed spectra over central Pacific in 1970 and 1997 show changes in greenhouse forcing. Used NASA IRIS (1970) and NASDA IMG (1997) spectra.

Detection of changes in forcing of climate in observed Earth spectra

Nature, March 2001

15 November 2011NASA Langley: Distinguished Public

Service Medal award 12

Uncertainty..natural variability...long term trends?

16 December 2008 CAVIAR Annual Meeting 2008 13

Pure rotation H2O

CO2

CH4CFCl3 O3

(highly variable)

2 H2O

Fig 3

15 November 2011 13NASA Langley: Distinguished Public

Service Medal award

There are clear signals of changes in CO2, CH4, etc., but also T/H2O mixing. What is the uncertainty?

The way forward

• Strong WG support for strengthening Welsh science base, and for using this strength to inform our people on several difficult problems, including climate;

• WG providing significant new money to kick-start new programme of Sêr Cymru...leveraging also possible;

• Wales should be able to win a ‘par’ success rate from the UK RCs and other competitive, peer reviewed, funders, OR BETTER. Raising to par would mean £27M - £ 64M more pa.

• Focus will be on our strengths and our three priorities, Advanced engineering & materials, Health and Life sciences, and Environment, energy & low carbon, plus the 4 underpinning themes.

• Priorities have been selected in basis of (a) excellence, (b) strengths, and (c) closeness to innovation pipeline.

• Welsh Government is looking for us, the science and engineering community, to respond positively to this new initiative: success will breed success.

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END

Harries and Belotti, J Clim., 23, 1277-1290


Broadband satellite measurements of ERB

We are interested in the energy balance of the Earth, between:

(a)Shortwave (SW) absorbed solar radiation; and

(b)Longwave (LW) emitted infrared radiation

LW SW

From CERES project.Data rather blurry: monthly averages


END


1. Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science

• A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class;• RAE 2008 found 49% rated 3*+4*, 14% rated 4*; numerous peaks;• Very good citations;• But we need more!

• Focus on our strengths and priorities;• Focus on excellence as first criterion;• Advertise our successes more, but avoid

hyperbole!

• BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:);• 1.7% of RC income is worth £27M each year: • From all sources, worth £64M each year .• Scotland winning almost 2x “pro-rata”; • Wales winning about 0.6 x “pro rata” ; • England wins about 1 x “pro rata”, because

they have 85% of the resources.2327 June 2012 CCCW_Barri

Cabinet highly supportive, involved in several discussions, endorsed the direction of travel, and adopted Science for Wales as the Strategy of the Welsh Government, on 6 December 2011.

Science for Wales was formally launched by First Minister of Wales, Rt Hon Carwyn Jones, AM , yesterday, 12 March 2012.

Provides a direction for science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and other “sciences”,and for future innovation strategies.

http://wales.gov.uk/topics/businessandeconomy/csaw/publications/120312sfw/?lang=en

Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales


CCCW-Chief Scientist Wales -2012-06_27

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