CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis Baghdad June 2009.

CCA/UNDAFPreliminary Analysis

Baghdad June 2009

CCA/UNDAF – Preliminary Analysis

COSIT/KRSO – United Nations

• Achievements of transition

• Overarching trends

• Development challenges

• Key areas of concern• Human rights, justice and security

• Economic development and inclusive growth

• Human development

• Governance

• Development gaps

• Top priorities

• Next steps

Summary



Country in transition: security & political improvement

• Security incidents fell by 90% Aug 2007 - Apr 2009; Casualties down • People’s perception of security improved. 80% of Iraqis report improvement;• The political process consolidates: Regained sovereignty; successful elections in

2009; people’s trust in the state increasing

43

62

84

39

49

61

Aug2007

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2008

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2009

Feb Mar Apr May

Total Incidents

Casualties

Positive Security perception (%)

Confidence in National Government (%)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

No d

eath

s /

inci

den

ts

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

perc

en

tag

e

Sou

rce:

Sec

urity

: U

NA

MI-

SS

I, R

etur

ns:

UN

HC

R (

Apr

il 20

09)



Country in transition: reintegration

• Return of displaced population increased; no major new displacement.

• Between 60-80% of IDPs would like to return to their homes (IOM, HCR)

Security Incidents

Refugee returns

IDP returns

Sou

rce:

Sec

urity

: U

NA

MI-

SS

I, R

etur

ns:

UN

HC

R (

Apr

il 20

09)

MonthlyAverage2007

MonthlyAverageS1 2008

Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

No. of

fam

ilies

Secu

rity

In

cid

en

ts

0

10000

30000

50000

2007 2008

Yearly totals

Yearly totals



Country in transition: socio-economic improvements

1. Improved macro-economic stability

• Economic growth

• Contained inflation2. Human development indicators have shown

improvement

• Improved food securityo Food insecurity down from 15 to 3% (WFP/COSIT 05, 07) o Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since 1990s (9% in 05

to 4.7% in 07)

• Improved schoolingo Overall increase in enrolment o Gap between male & female education achievements narrowedo Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87% in 07-8, MOE)

and now passed 5m pupils.

• Antenatal care is relatively high 87% of pregnancies / ~80% of births are attended by skilled personnel (IFHS)



Country in transition

However, the situation remains fragile and reversible



Overarching trends

• Bigger, fast growing and younger population: 31 million, 43% under 15 yrs

• Iraq’s natural resources & ecological support system in decline

• Higher dependency on highly unstable international oil market

• Growth in public sector:

• public sector jobs created instead of developing private sector;

• focus on subsidies at the expense of service delivery



Key challenges to Iraq’s transition

• Consolidate peace o Ensure political participation & strengthen state-citizen relationshipo Address limitations to women’s participation in public life

• Sustain improvement in securityo Strengthen rule of law o ensure protection of basic rights

• Strengthen economic performance o improve management of resources, o stimulate private sector, generate economic opportunities,

particularly for women & young people

• Enable env’t for return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees

• Improve access to and quality of basic services, esp. for the most vulnerable.

• Address regional disparities & improve rural standard of living.



Key areas for Iraq’s future development

1. Human rights, security and justice

2. Economic development

3. Human development

4. Governance



1. Human Rights, Security & Justice

• Human rights a major concern. Women particularly at risk.

• Civilian casualties still high and security institutions(esp. police) need strengthening

Key message: Continued improvements in human rights, security and justice are needed for national reconciliation, peace, and development



Landmines and UXOs: Iraq’s heavily contaminated

More than 3000 suspected mined areas identified by UN in the 3 Northern Govts.

Large border areas with landmine and UXO contamination

Large areas with Sub-munitions, UXO and Abandon munitions contamination

N



2. Economy Dev’t & Inclusive Growth

• Economic performance affected by dominant public sector (44% full-time employment), weak private sector, underperforming & under-skilled labour force.

• Cultural Resources underdeveloped despite high potential (e.g. Tourism sector – archeological and heritage sites)

• Young people & women left out (25% of men aged 20-24 yrs unemployed and 18% of women participate in Labour Force)

• 23% of the population under the poverty line, high regional disparities, rural population twice as poor (IHSES).



Youth

• Unemployment Rate (%) by Age Groups (Concentration among young)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

15-19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65 and more

2006 unemployment rate

2008 unemployment rate



Economically Inactive(25% 15-64yr)

Unemployed(14% of LF)

Part Time(21% of LF)

Full Time(65% of LF)

Gender

Men(age 15-64yr)

Women(age 15-64yr)

Economically Inactive(82% 15-64yr)

Unemployed(19% of LF)

Part Time(45% of LF)

Full Time(36% of LF)



Economic Dev’t: Energy, Rural dev’t & Environment

• Electricity unreliable (daily average of public supply 7.9 hrs; 22% of population rely on public network - IHSES)

• Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in the rural economy due to lack of value chains (e.g. weak, small agro-industry).

• Weak management of natural resources and pressure on natural environment strain economic development, esp. rural, including agriculture.



Environment and rural development

Areas affected by drought in both 2008 and 2009

Affected CropLand / Total_CropLand

46% - 56%

31% - 45%

26% - 30%

6% - 25%

4% - 5%

39% of all cropland sufferedfrom drought in both 08-09

Sourc

e:

FA

O, IA

U (

20

09

)



Key message

Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraq’s economy remains oil dependent, with a weak private sector and job market and with few opportunities for the poor



Human Development: Indices 2008

National Report onThe Status of Human Development 2008:

1. HDI: 0.6232. GDI: 0.5843. HPI: 18.8004. GEM: 0.696



3. Human Development: Education

• Iraq’s capacity to nurture the skills of next generation is weak

• High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp. among rural women (55% rural women aged 15-24 illiterate, MICS3)

• 40% of students go from primary to secondary school (MOE).

• Poor quality and overcrowding: one in three schools operating double shift (MOE)

• 28% of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams (MOE 2007)

• 40% pass rate in South and Centre



Human development: Health

• Iraq ‘s health status has waned due to consecutive wars, violence and inadequate public/reproductive health strategies.

• Life expectancy at birth = 65yr (1987) / 58yr (2006)

• Infant mortality rate = 30 per 1,000 live births (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006)

• Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any mental disorder: Men (8.8%) / Women (13.5%. IMHS)

• Poor measles immunisation: 65% coverage (MICS3)

• Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.



Human development: Water & sanitation

• 82% HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste collection (IHSES)

• Lack of access to safe and reliable water and sanitation

• One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time (MICS3)



Essential Services: the public water network

• Network infrastructure exists but is in a state of disrepair;

44 %Suffer from less than

One interruption a week

19 %Are not connected to the

general water network

24 %Suffer from more than one interruption a day

13 %Suffer from more than one interruption a week

Sourc

e:

Iraq

House

hold

Soci

o-E

conom

ic S

urv

ey (

20

07

) –

CO

SIT

/Worl

d B

ank



Human development: social protection

• Social protection exists but not protecting the most vulnerable• 45% of jobs covered by social insurance;

• 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural areas, and these children are less likely to participate in school - MICS3

• PDS provides great proportion of food consumed and improves food security amongst the poorest

• prevalence of hunger low at 7%

• But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable (Diyala 51% hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered due to violence).



Human development: housing and shelter

4 key issues to poor housing & growing demand:

1. Population growth rates2. Levels of overcrowding; 3. Poor housing conditions and access to basic services; 4. Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons;



Key message: human development

Access to quality services is a key priority and requires strong further improvement; it is central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy of the government



4. Governance

• Perception of state legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness improving, but still weak, partly because of slow improvement with services and economic opportunities

• Public sector reform urgent but needs to be gradual to avoid destabilisation given high dependence on state jobs & subsidies.

• Budget allocations is key issue

• Weak independent media, environmental and cultural resource management needs urgent attention.



Budget Allocation: Investment Gap

2008 Actual expenditure shares (% of total budget)

0

10.3

6.3

0.1 0.1

6.35.2

0 0.2 0.1 0.6

Total (Op.&Inv.) Expenditures Projects Investment

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

PublicActivity

Other Kurdistan Interior Defence Electricity Oil Justice Agriculture Health Education

Subsidies.Pensions,War rep

Local Administration

Security Energy Investment Gap



Service Delivery Perceptions

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

Fuel Electricity Water Medical Care Local Schools

Aug 2007

Mar 2009 Sou

rce:

AB

C P

olls

(A

ug 2

007

/ M

ar 2

009)

• Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in people’s perception due to private and public investment

• Service delivery on water, health and education less improvement (reflecting lack of investment)



Key message

Improving governance, management of public resources, capacity to deliver services and generating public debate are critical to consolidate peace.



Development Gaps

1. Human capacity

2. Strategy to address poverty

3. Governance capacity



Top priorities

• Prioritise & sequence interventions with high transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend potential

• Address regional and governorate disparities

• Address poverty and unemployment through rural development

• Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children



Next Steps

1. Identification of Thematic Areas and Working Groups

2.Amman Workshop (incl. training on causal analysis)

3.Causal Analysis conducted by Thematic Working Groups culminating on Thematic analysis summarizing their results

4.Drafting of CCA

CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis Baghdad June 2009.

Documents

Transcript of CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis Baghdad June 2009.