CCAFS and a +4° degree world

Philip Thornton

CU retreat5 February 2015

Outline

• What would +4 °C agriculture look like?

• What could CCAFS do as a R4D program in such a world?

– Mitigation

– Adaptation

– Transformative change

• What trajectory are we on?

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Ave

rage

Te

mp

(d

eg

C)

Year

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Mean daily temperature in sub-Saharan Africa to the 2090sAfrica south of lat 18°N, all areas with LGP>40 days per year (grey mask below)Ensemble mean, 17 GCMs downscaled to 10 arc-minutes (about 18 km)For two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

Thornton & Jones (2014)

To 2090, ensemble

mean of 14 climate

models

Thornton et al. (2010)

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

African agriculture in a +4 °C world

• Almost no rain-fed agricultural production south of the Zambesi

• Shorter growing seasons, 20-50% decreases in crop yields, much more in some places; >70% for beans

• Substantial increases in frequency of extreme events, climate variability, season failures equilibrium conditions in African rangelands upset

• Massive increases in intensive cropping in the highlands

(“sustainable intensification”) and high-risk cropping in the

marginal areas

• Water, human health, crop/livestock disease, weeds & pests, coastal impacts, natural resource conflicts, mass migration, …

• Prognosis is appalling: catastrophic for most of the continent

African agriculture in a +4 °C world

What could CCAFS do in a +4 °C world?

• Requires significant resources to incentivize new practices on 25% of the world’s farm- and rangeland.

• Requires up to twice the level of mitigation achieved for the conservative goal, and hence more transformative approaches, e.g.:

– far-reaching rural credit

– more efficient organization of production

– innovations such as inexpensive nitrification inhibitors or the availability of cattle breeds that produce less methane

Medium range goal Aspirational goal

Agriculture will have to be contributing to mitigationAspirational goal: to reduce agricultural GHG emissions in 2030 by 12-14% relative to “business-as-usual”, while achieving global food security for 8.3 billion people

Wollenberg & Richards (2015)

Adapting to a +4 °C world: what could CCAFS do?

• National / subnational multi-sectoral information on impacts (short term, long term) for prioritisation

• Beyond CSVs:

• Area-wide sustainability: shift production to most suitable zones

• Different crop / livestock species, knowledge of how to use them

• Innovative production systems (vertical farms, urban agriculture)

• Beyond agricultural self-sufficiency as an economic objective:

• Shifts in national policy objectives: trading partnerships, regional / global inter-connectedness

• Smallholder intensification, land aggregation

• Alternative livelihoods in rural areas

But is it enough?

• Consuming more sustainable diets (managing the demand side)• Modifying what we eat could have very large impacts on use of

land & water, GHG emissions, health & nutrition

• Technology game changers• Artificial meat, insect protein, seaweed• N-fixing cereals; methane inhibitors?

• Reducing waste in food value chains• ~40% of food is lost (postharvest, processing, retail, consumer)

• Making policies and markets work together• Enlightened and informed governance plus a socially responsible

private sector• Appropriate policy / market incentives to induce behavioural

change on a massive scale

• Need to account for full impacts on ag, food security and livelihoods: variability, pests/diseases, water, human health, systems buffering …

• Need to quantify what we are promoting in relation to adaptation, mitigation, food security: what works where and why, what doesn’t

• Not so much about technology: making do with what we have (silver bullets unlikely)

• Need new skills: discourse analysis and gender norms (how can they be modified?), behavioural science, marketing science

• Leading by example - more action, less talking?

• Need the communications and engagement to back all this up

CCAFS research before we get to a +4 °C world

What trajectory are we on?

IPCC’s budgets for a “likely”chance of not

exceeding 2°C demand the EU deliver an 80% reductionin emissions from its energy

system by 2030, with full decarbonisation shortly

after

Steffen et al. (2015)

Environmental news coverage:ITV 2.5% (2007) 0.2% (2014)BBC 1.6% (2007) 0.3% (2014)

In 2014 as many news stories about Madeleine McCann (7 years on) as about all environmental issues put together

• Highly non-linear climate system

• Tipping points, positive feedbacks

• There is not a lot of time: 2016-2020 may represent the last window

• Political will and changes to CC discourse on a massive scale

• Or are there simply limits to the collective capability of “Hom sap” to do what’s needed?

p.thornton@cgiar.org