CCA-DRR with Project NOAH

AMF Lagmay

UP Resilience Institute / UP NOAH Center

Disruptive Technology

A disruptive technology is one that displaces an established technology (science) and shakes up the industry or a ground breaking product that creates a completely new industry.

Key Elements that spell the difference in our CCA-DRR efforts

• Probabilistic Risk Assessment

• Open Data

Both are in the approved Congress version of the Department of Disaster Resilience (DDR) Bill

We were given the instruction to put in place a responsive program for Disaster Risk Reduction

AVOIDING DISASTERS

Based on weather forecasts and near-real time information

Based on awareness of hazards, education indivuals and access to

accurate hazard maps

MGB

70 % of evacuation centers in Taclobanwere hit by storm surges

Brgy Andap

566 people were placed in an evacuation center overwhelmed by debris flows (This picture) which is a type of landslide

No amount of accurate warning will work if hazard maps are inappropriate

Lesson 1We should be able to anticipate future hazards bigger than what we have experienced including Climate Change Impacts (Probabilistic Risk Assessment)

To do this we have to use the latest technologies and science

CompostelaCompostela Municipality Town ProperLIDAR

CompostelaCompostela Municipality Town ProperLIDAR

Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a

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MGB

MGB

MGB

MGB

MGB

Disaster Risk = H x E x VMultiply anything by 0 you get zero in your LCCAP, CDRA and CLUP

Interviews and expert opinion-based susceptibility map

5 –year rain return flood

25 –year rain return flood

100 –year rain return flood

Lesson 2The business of hazards mapping is not to identify the hazards but to understand hazards to identify safe places for evacuation centers and climate resilient development planning of communities

Hernani Total Area: 46.44km2

MGB Safe Area: 2.93km2

MGB Landslide & Flood Hazard MapHernani, Eastern Samar

Safe Areas: 6.32%From Landslide and Flood Hazards

Hernani Total Area: 46.44km2

NOAH Safe Area: 23.94km2

NOAH Landslide, Flood & Storm Surge Hazard MapHernani, Eastern Samar

NOAH Landslide, Flood &

Safe Areas: 51.54%From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge Hazards

Background – before there were zero safe areas

Safe Areas: 0.01%

MGB Landslide & Flood Hazard MapOrmoc City, Leyte

MGB Landslide & Flood MGB Landslide & Flood From Landslide and Flood hazards

Background – now there are more identified safe areas

Safe Areas: 36.87%

NOAH Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge Hazard MapOrmoc City, Leyte

From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards

Safe areas for landslide and flood hazards Location Safe areas identified by

DENR-MGB multi-hazard map

Safe areas identified by DOST-Project NOAH hazard map

Ormoc, Leyte 0.01% 40.34%

Kananga, Leyte 0.00% 41.04%

Tacloban, Leyte 0.02% 32.6%

Guiuan, Eastern Samar 9% 66.8%

Hernani, Eastern samar 6.32% 54.77%

Quinapondan, Eastern Samar

1.57% 39.79%

Salcedo, Eastern Samar 2.21% 66.35%

Gen. Mac Arthur, Eastern Samar

0.37% 38.16%

Portion of Eastern Iloilo 1.2% 56.4%

Probabilistic Multi-Scenario-based Multi Hazard Map

LandscapeStorm surge Level 1

Storm surge Level 2Storm surge Level 3

Storm surge Level 4

Landslide Hazard5-year rain returnFlood scenario25-year rain returnFlood scenario

100-year rain returnFlood scenarioMulti-Hazard MapMulti-Scenario Based

Legal Basis

• PDP 2017-2022• Assessment and Challenges

• (b) unavailability of appropriately-scaled probabilistic multi-hazard maps;

• Strengthen the implementation of CCA and DRR across sectors, particularly at the local level

• Subsector Outcome 2: Environmental quality improved• Develop, maintain, and ensure the accessibility of climate and

geospatial information and services. This includes the following activities: (a) completing the coverage and ensuring access to large scale (1:10,000) probabilistic hazard maps;

Legal Basis

• RA 10121 (Definition of terms)• (hh) "Risk" - the combination of the probability of an event

and its negative consequences.• (ii) "Risk Assessment" - a methodology to determine the

nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihood and the environment on which they depend. Risk assessments with associated risk mapping include: a review of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios.

6 disasters in 10 monthsNext one could be you if you don’t plan in an

anticipatory manner

Biliran Disaster, Tropical Storm Urduja (December 2017)

“Red areas are mountains with steep slopes, fractures, and structurally weak rock formations with a history of landslides; green areas are moderately susceptible to landslides. People living here, however, still need to be careful. These are usually mountains and rock formations with moderate slopes; and yellow areas are less likely to experience landslides. Landslide debris, however, might still affect the areas as they could become an accumulation zone” (Rappler, 2017). Blue and violet color refer to flood hazards.

Brgy Dalama, Tubod Disaster, Tropical Storm Vinta (December 2017)

Barangay Dalama, Tubod, Lanao del NorteTropical Storm Vinta

Ucab, , Lanao del NorteTropical Storm Vinta

Ucab, , Lanao del NorteTropical Storm Vinta

Rappler

Composite landslide, flood and storm surge hazard maps

We still use single-scenario deterministic maps that do not identify safe havens from hydromet hazards

Lesson 3We need to build trust in communicating science for CCA-DRR

Open Data

Op

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Transdisciplinary

Multidisciplinary

Interdisciplinary(Scientific, Engineering

fields)

NGA

Open Knowledge