SustainabilityERE 742

School of Natural Resources Engineering and Management

GJU

Impact of CC,Vulnaribility Assessment,

and Adaptation

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of CC including climate variability & extremes.

Function of: Magnitude, Rate of change Sensitivity of the system, and System adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability

sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change

(IPCC 2007 in UNDP 2008)

WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?

Climate Vulnerability =

Biophysical Vulnerability + Social Vulnerability

GEO-4 (UNEP 2007)

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY

Biophysical Vulnerability = the degree to which a [physical] system is unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change IPCC

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY

Social Vulnerability = measure of a society to adapt to hazards

Harsh climate + High exposure

High Physical Risk

= the political component of vulnerability.

Are national adaptation plans applied evenly?

Does political cover extend selectively to some communities?

How does the marginalisation of a community or people affect their ability to adapt??

Financial mobility?

Physical mobility?

SOCIO - POLITICAL VULNERABILITYSOCIO - POLITICAL VULNERABILITY

Chronic poverty Increasing population Weak institutions and physical infrastructure Low access to technology and information, Political and social Instability Lack of political commitments, access to

resources and management capabilities High illiteracy rates and lack of skills

Non Climatic conditions contributing to vulnerability

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying Island StatesAll low-lying Island

States Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Middle Income

Low Income Source: World Bank

Developing Countries Most At Risk

Resulting Impacts

Food insecurity:Water ShortagesSea level riseUndermined economic development.Increased poverty,Etc.

The solution

Development

AdaptationMitigation

Low Carbon Dev

Climate Resilient

Dev

Climate Proofing

Climate Compatible Development

Temp VariationR/Fall VariationSea Level rise

Climate ChangeFactors

Impact Analysis

Economic and Social SystemsEco Systems

Critical infrastructure

Natural HazardsLivelihoods

other

Risk Database

NAPA

Sector wide planning and development

Economic and Development Planning

Disaster Management/DRR

Early warning systemsPreparedness Planning

AwarenessRelief and Recovery Management

Lessons learned feedback loop

Cross cutting Inputs (examples):

Knowledge ManagementInformation Management

Capacity DevelopmentAdvocacy and awareness-

raisingPolicy and Planning

Climate Change Development

MonitoringLoop

Social and Gender Inclusion Mainstreaming

Framework

Poverty Reduction and MDG Goals

?Framework for mainstreaming CC within development strategies

Adaptation or Development??

CC Future Risk Predictions

Existing Risk Levels

Existing adaptive/coping capacityExisting Adaptation Gap

Predicted Adaptation Gap

Gap between existing coping capacity and existing/future risk may be so great that only long term development strategies may have an impact on reducing risk and vulnerability

Eroded Capacity

Adaptation Determinants

Progressive process at several levels simultaneously from local to national to global;

Support of enabling national policies, regulations and institutional setups.

Accurate and reliable dataTechnical and technological capacityFinancial resourcesInstitutional setup

ADAPTATION EFFORTS IN THE REGION

Fragmented efforts at national levelsNo coordinated regional or sub- regional adaptation approach Adaptation Gap in the region

Examples of needed adaptation in our region

Water Resources (Has taken a top priority among all adaptation measures):

The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers.

Improve efficiency, develop new water resources.

Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt with the new conditions.

Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility

Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction.

Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to the consequences of climate change,

Addressing adaptation in our region

A coordinated effort of capacity building, training, research, & development.

A region-wide monitoring program to provide reliable information for stakeholders and policy makers.

Plan adaptive integrated climate risk-based approaches, within relevant policy frameworks.

National and regional strategies and action plans should be developed and adopted.

National regional early warning systems for forecasts, risk assessment and monitoring of extreme events should be put in place.

Development & implementation of integrated regional water management (ground and surface waters).

Empowerment of communities, particularly women and other vulnerable groups.

Involving civil societies and private sector

Conclusions

Example of Vulnerability to CC

The case of Jordan

BackgroundClimate change

As a country characterized with semi-arid climate, high dependence on rainfall and scarcity of water resources, Jordan is one of the countries to be highly affected with climate change impacts.

Although Jordans emissions of greenhouse gases are very low, climate change is a threat to Jordan since the ecosystem productivity and water resources are highly dependent on the hydrological cycle.

1C 2C 5C4C3C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible

ChangesChanges

0C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear water

supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions450 ppm CO2 eq

650 ppm CO2 eq

Projected Impacts of GlobalTemperature Change

Source: L. Rudolph, 2008

Findings of Jordans research on CC (The Second National Communication, SNC)

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Vulnerability

The following four sectors were identified as the Key sectors for vulnaribility in Jordan by the SNC:

Water Resources sectorAgriculture sector Health sectorSocio-economic impacts

Climate parametersTrend Analysis

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Precipitation trend analysis-19 meteorological stations

8 20% decreasing trends especially in the last 3 decades of the 2nd millennium up to the year 2006 in Irbid, Shoubak, Wadi Dhleil, Madaba, Amman A/P, Q.A.I.A., Mafraq and Aqaba.

5%, 7% and 10% increasing trends were exhibited since the 1980s up to the year 2006 in Ras Muneef, Al Rabba and Ruwaished respectively.

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Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Maximum Temperature Trends:

Increasing trends of about 1.0 1.8 C in Baqura, Ghore Safi, Al-Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Safawi and Q.A.I.A.

Increasing trends of about 0.5 0.9 C in Deir Alla, Al-Rabba, Jordan University, Madaba, Ras Muneef and Al-Jafr.

Insignificant increasing trends of about 3% were found in Ruwaished, Mafraq and Maan.

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Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Minimum Temperature Trends:

Increasing trends of about 1.0 2.8 C in Deir Alla, Ghore Safi, Irbed, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan University, Madaba, Mafraq, Ruwaished, Q.A.I.A. and Al Jafr.

Increasing trends of about 0.4 0.9 C in Al Shoubak, Aqaba Airport, Ras Muneef, Safawi and Maan.

The increase in minimum temperature is obviously greater than the increase in maximum temperature.

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Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations

Mean Temperature Trends:

Increasing trends of about 0.8 2.0 C in Ghore Safi, Al - Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan University, Madaba, Ruwaished, Mafraq, Safawi, Q.A.I.A., and Al Jafr

Increasing trends of about 0.7 C in Deir Alla.

Insignificant increasing trends of about 0.3 0.6 C in Baqura, Irbed, Ras Muneef and Ma'an.

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Conclusions - Trend analysis

The majority of stations exhibit decreasing trends in precipitation. While some other stations exhibit insignificant increasing trends.

The number of rainy days reveals decreasing trends of about 3 -10 percent in most of the stations. This has an adverse impact on the temporal distribution of rainfall over a season. (Impact on agricultural sector).

When the increasing rainfall amount is accompanied by a decreasing number of rainy days, the rainfall intensity will accordingly increase and the probability of recording extreme values of rainfall will also increase.

The max, min and mean temperatures reveal significant warming trends at 99 percent confidence level in most of the stations. The significant warming trends of min temperature are greater than that of max temperature. As a result, the mean temperature shows significant warming trends in all stations.

Climate Change Scenarios

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Climate Change Scenarios

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Findings - Climate Change Scenarios

All the scenarios show an increase in temperature of less than 2C.

As a rule, warming should be stronger during the warm months of the year while less warming is projected to occur in the cold months of the year.

The climate change scenarios for precipitation are highly variable.

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Possible impacts of climate change- Jordan

Water stress and reduction in the availability of fresh water due to potential decline in rainfall

Threats to agriculture and food security

Impact on human health due to the increase in vector and water-borne diseases

Adverse impact on natural ecosystems, such as Jordan Valley, and coral reefs in Gulf of Aqaba, grasslands and mountain ecosystems.

The WaterSector

Nov 11, 2009 33

Findings, Water

The vulnerability assessment study presented in the SNC showed that ZRB and YRB are vulnerable to climate change.

There is a strong relationship between infiltration rates and the amount of rainfall in Jordan.

Accordingly, less precipitation will lead to less recharge; and less available water resources coupled with deterioration of surface and groundwater quality. 34

Agriculture Sector

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Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change because the available water and land resources are limited.

Due to urban expansion in the high rainfall zones, rainfed agriculture had expanded towards the marginal lands of arid and semiarid areas. Crop failure rate of barley is usually high and grain is usually obtained in one year out of five.

Results of DSSAT model showed that the increase in rainfall amount would not compensate for the adverse impacts of the temperature increase on barley.

Adverse impacts of climate change on rainfed cultivation and on the arid and semi-arid rangelands were identified as the most significantly impacting on the livestock sector and the overall food production in the country

HealthSector

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Background Info

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Climate Change and Health: Pathways

Climate change

Social, economic,

demographic disruptionsChanges to biological processes, timing

Changes to ecosystem structure

and function

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts, via changes to mediating systems

and processes

Health impacts

e.g. heatwaves, floods, bushfires

Fisheries: composition, yield Nutrient cycles

Forest productivity

Changes to physical systems/processes Urban air pollutant formation

Freshwater supplies

Mosquito numbers, range Photosynthetic activity

reduced food yields

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2

3

(McMichael, 2005)

Climate Changes Impacts on Health

CLIMATE CHANGE

Temperature Rise 1Sea level Rise 2

Hydrologic Extremes

Temperature/Heat Stress

Air Pollution

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Water resources & food supply

Environmental Refugees

Heat StressCardiorespiratory failure

Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma

MalariaDengue

EncephalitisHantavirus

Rift Valley Fever

CholeraCyclospora

CryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis

MalnutritionDiarrhea

Toxic Red Tides

Forced MigrationOvercrowding

Infectious diseasesHuman Conflicts

1 3C by yr. 2100

2 40 cm IPCC estimates

HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Vulnerable Populations

Source: Derived from SAP 4.6, Chapter 2

Jordan HealthVulnerability

to CC

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Findings - Health.

General effects on human health of increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns include: physiological disorders, skin rashes and dehydration, eye cataracts, and damage of public health infrastructure, deaths and injuries

The SNC showed a positive correlation between the rate of some diseases like Diarrhea rate and the mean monthly temperature

CC may result in changing in transmission of vector borne diseases

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Findings - HealthThe most important effect of climate change in

Jordan is shortage of water, due to decreasing rainfall

One of the adaptation measures to cope with shortage of water is reuse of grey or treated wastewater in growing some trees or vegetables that are not consumed without cooking

This adaptation measure increases the opportunity for transmission of several pathogens through contamination of crops and could cause outbreaks like Typhoid fever, Amibiasis, Giardiasis, or Hepatitis A.

The Socio Economic Vulnerability to CC

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Findings Socio economic

Shortage of water affects the sanitary conditions in the households, thus increases some kinds of diseases such as diarrhea, and the increase of costs of living.

Rain fed farmers are affected by the high temperature

and low rain in their farming practices, thus a decrease in their income.

Impacts on livestock: availability of rangelands and water, high prices of fodders, income

Recommendations

There is a need to develop a comprehensive multi-sectoral National Adaptation Action Plan through the participation and engagement of relevant institutions and stakeholders including ministries of environment, water, agriculture and health.

This action plan is expected to address all needs in the area of

Vulnerability and to focus on prioritizing the propose programs. The plan is also expected to identify barriers to implementation of the

adaptation measures and put forward programs, projects and mechanisms to deal with them.

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THANKYOU

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Sustainability ERE 742 School of Natural Resources Engineering and Management GJUVulnerabilitySlide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Non Climatic conditions contributing to vulnerabilityResulting ImpactsThe solutionFramework for mainstreaming CC within development strategiesAdaptation or Development??Adaptation DeterminantsAdaptation efforts in the regionExamples of needed adaptation in our regionAddressing adaptation in our regionConclusionsExample of Vulnerability to CCBackgroundProjected Impacts of Global Temperature ChangeSlide 21VulnerabilitySlide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Conclusions - Trend analysisSlide 29Slide 30Slide 31Possible impacts of climate change- JordanSlide 33Findings, WaterSlide 35AgricultureSlide 37Slide 38Slide 39Climate Changes Impacts on HealthSlide 41Vulnerable PopulationsSlide 43Findings - HealthSlide 45Slide 46Findings Socio economicRecommendationsSlide 49