Draft Operational Strategy on Adapting to Climate Change

Alex Simalabwi

GWP Regional Days

August 2011

Of the 12 years (from 1995-2006), 11 are among the 12 warmest since records began in 1850.

Global Impacts and Issues

Global Trends in disasters since 1900

Drought and Desertification

Drought, desertification estimated to affect one-third of the world’s population and are predicted to worsen

Sea Level Rise

Millions of people low-lying coastal areas,SIDS at risk over the 21st century

Delta losses

Rising sea levels to result in freshwater losses in river delta systems

Water Stress

700 million people in 43 countries live below the water-stress threshold of 1,700 cubic metres per person. By 2025 that figure will reach 3 billion

Gender Impacts

increased frequency of droughts means that women are walking greater distances to collect water, often ranging from 10-15 km/ day

Ecosystems & Forests

Changes in hydrology to have wide-ranging impacts on ecosystem diversity

Glacial Melt & Mountain Populations

increase flood risk to one-sixth of the world’s population, predominantly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China, and the Andes in South America

Climate Migration and Displacement

A global temperature increase of 3-4°C could cause 330 million people displaced

Agriculture and Food Systems

Disruption of food production systems may expose an additional 75–125 million people to threat of hunger

Transboundary Impacts

An estimated 145 states have international basins within their territory, and 30 countries lie entirely within them

Finance and GDP• UNFCCC-additional costs

for adaptation in the water sector $9 – 11 billion in 2030

• World Bank- $13.7 billion in drier scenarios, and $19.2 billion in wetter scenarios for ‘Water Supply and Flood Management’.

GWP Response

Goal 2: Address critical development challenges

This means contributing to solutions for critical challenges to water security, such as climate change,

urbanisation, food production, resource related conflict

and other challenges.

Expected outcomes-2a

Outcome 2a:

• National and regional policy makers, civic organisations, water managers and international development agencies take into account the links between water and climate change, and develop solutions for adapting the management of water resources to climate change.

a. Advocacy • Helping policy makers understand

the links between water and climate change

b.Solution development• Supporting policy makers to develop

solutions for adapting the management of water resources to climate change for development

Expected outcomes-2c

Outcome 2 c: International actors and multi-lateral policy processes work with a clearer understanding of the options available for tackling emerging and on-going challenges facing water security

• Intellectual contributions

• to enable international actors and multi-lateral policy processes work with a clearer understanding of the options available for tackling emerging and on-going challenges facing water security

ISSUE GWP Response•Advocacy Major focus of the interventions

-Dialogues,workshops,meetings

•Solutions development

Need Tools for guiding decision making, decision support Tools

-dealing with uncertainity, no/low regret measures, resilience, vulnerability,etc,-some focus on policies -uncertainity??

•Intellectual contributions

-Modest progress; TEC & Regions

Towards an operational strategy

a. Advocacy

G8, Italy, July 2009

“Climate Adaptation is Water Adaptation”

Copenhagen, November 2008

Dialogue on Adaptation to Climate Change for Land and Water Management

UNFCCC AccreditationIGO Observer Status

Side Event : “Bridging the Water and Climate Agendas”“Water Management, Water Security and Climate Change Adaptation”

One Page Briefing Note + contributions to “Outreach”Led to : “Beyond COP15 : Building Resilience through Water Security”

Hanoi, January 2009 Bamako, February 2009

Istanbul, March 2009 Nairobi, April 2009

Nairobi Statement

Barcelona, November 2009

Side Event at Water Day and IGO Observer with

Stakeholder Forum

Beyond COP15 : Regional Dialogues;

+ GWP input into Review of Adaptation

Fund

Nairobi Work Programme on

Adaptation

Bonn, June 2010 COP

16

COP 17Key messages

COP 15

Bonn, June 2011

Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster Risk Reduction

Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Adaptation

Water Security

Water Security

Linking development Agendas

Better climate information

GWP´s role :• Reaching out to the climate community and the disaster management community • Linking water security with these agendas at national level, regional level, global level• Stressing that better water management is the key to climate adaptation

b. Intellectual contributions

b. Intellectual Contributions

• Better Water Resources Management - Greater Resilience Today, More Effective Adaptation Tomorrow

• Water Management, Water Security and Climate Change Adaptation: Early Impacts and Essential Responses

• Climate Change Adaptation and IWRM - An Initial Overview

• Climate Change: How can we adapt• Regional Publications • GWP Briefing Note, 2009

c. Solution developmentbuilding resilience to impacts, minimize damages

& increase benefits

What Solutions?

Policy solutions

Financial solutions

Institutional solutions

Technical solutions

Policy Solutions-Linking Water, Climate and Economic Development communities.. getting out of the silos

Integrating water security, climate resilience into national development, policy frameworks

COP PeopleWater People Finance/ economicDevelopement people

Financial Solutions-Mobilising investments and financing water security to build climate resilience…. (3 I s)

Institutional Solutions

Institutional development- information, education & enhancing knowledge on the risks, damages and opportunities

Technical solutions

Dealing with uncertainty

Distilling available methodologies

Projecting water, climate, development futures

Robust response measures for a wide range of scenarios

 

 

Technical solutions-floods

Current Status of the Operational Strategy

Programme Approach.....

Water Climate Development Programe

Under Development.....

Strategic Framework for Water Security and Climate Resilient Development

Technical Backgound documentCapacity Developmenet Strategy

Policy Briefs

Developing the Framework• CORE TEAM• HR Wallingford-lead• Oxford University Centre for Environment• Oxford Policy Management• Institute for Development Studies

• Associate Partners• University of East Anglia Water Security Centre

International Office for Water (host of INBO)

• IWMI-Africa• Climate Systems Analysis Group-University of Cape Town

Discussion

Solution development requires a ‘Step Change’

What should we do to get to this?